Underdogs against Carolina - love it!

[mgteich]

A successful book sets the spread to get equal money on each side. If there is significant middle as the game approaches, then the sports book either gambles that the middle won't happen or simply lays off the middle with another sports book, obviously at a cost. The sports book is NOT in the business of gambling; it should almost always end up with very close to an even book, and therefore not care who wins the game.

Or they're trying to get relatively equal payout on both sides of the line. Sometimes changing the payout is better than moving the line where the book has to cross a key point and stands to lose money on both sides of a likely outcome.

Example: the line starts at Panthers -2.5, a bunch of early money pushes it to -3. Not a ton of action, so you move it to -3.5, where a bunch of late money comes in. Panthers win by 3, and the books end up having to pay out on both the early money and the late money, while the small amount of money in the middle pushes. If they really want to avoid that risk, it's better to juice the payout to discourage taking the Panthers at -2.5 and encourage taking the Pats at +2.5. If you're successful, it dramatically limits the book's exposure.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Well we should be. We have a QB that's past his prime. We have 2nd rate receivers. We have lost the heart of our defense.

We are doomed.

 

[mgteich]

Yup the world is out to get us; the world disrespects us. And why? Because betters have judged that one of best teams in the NFL is likely to beat the patriots at home. IMHO, this is simply a bunch of crap.

The patriots will likely win. However, IMHO, it is not unreasonable to believe that the panthers should be a slight betting favorite at home.

 

[Jackson 2]

Everyone who may be insulted or indignant over the line has an attractive option - bet the Pats and take the points.

 

[ausbacker]

I love the Patriots match ups against Carolina's Secondary. This game will come down to the Patriots OL against the Carolina DL. Give Brady the 2.5-3 seconds he needs and the Patriots should be OK. If not, well, you've seen this rodeo before.

I'm interested to see how Sopoaga plays. This will be his first proper exposure with the Patriots now he's had a little time to learn the book. They will need him with Newton's scrambling ability and Williams, Stewart and Tolbert back there.

 

[Absurdly Metro]

I, too, think the key to this game is Brady and the receivers attacking the Carolina secondary. If the Offense puts up points early it mitigates Carolina's edge in the running game.

 

[buile]

(I'm in Durham NC)
Anyone else here going?

No, but some of the fam (mom, sister, nieces, nephew) are in Wake Forest... they'll be cheering the Pats from their living rooms! Good Luck, Neuronet!

 

[NCpatriot]

I would love it if I thought it had no basis. Carolina has a stout defense, the type that gives the Pats fits. Our defense needs to really step it up for us to win it, is my prediction.

I am going to buy a ticket to the game to add my voice in person. Unfortunately, nobody will go with me that I know (I'm in Durham NC) so I will be that weird dude sitting by myself in a Pats sweatshirt (not a jersey, as I still have only got a Welker jersey).

Anyone else here going?

I'll see you there!

 

[hwc]

Carolina reminds me of a team that just got their new letterman jackets. I think the Pats will spank them.

The Pats aren't going to run into a brick wall all night. I think they'll spread 'em out and pressure the Panthers' secondary.

 

[Charlotte Pats Fan]

My best buddy has lived in Charlotte for many years. Lots of nights years ago hitting the spots on South Blvd. and Tyvola.

I know the spots well, its been years since Ive been up there partying. I Were actually going to take the train from 485/South Blvd to the game. Going to cost us $8 total for 2 round trip tickets.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Hard to fault anyone picking Carolina. They are playing great football and are at home.

I think we'll pull it off coming off the bye knowing BB's track record there, but still a bit worried going against that defense.

 

[supafly]

I love the Patriots match ups against Carolina's Secondary.

I think they'll spread 'em out and pressure the Panthers' secondary.

I tend to agree with you both, but it should also be noted that CAR also has the #4th ranked pass defense too, so it's not exactly like we're going up against someone who's ranked in the mid to late 20's or something.

Hopefully we can spread them out and have success, but I also think that some are considering it as a given, when it's certainly not.

#2 in run defense, #2 total defense, #4 in pass defense

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Interesting how some teams don't ever have ease of schedule used in analysis.

 

[BlueThunder]

Beating the Niners is no easy task.

Pats will have their hands full with Carolina.


If they don't play solid football on both sides of the ball, and ST's, they won't win.

 

[RIpats88]

Abit OT but danny amendola participated in full at practice yesterday for the first time in good knows how long... A good sign that he's near if not at 100%..in a game like this, he is important for those quick passes before the front 4 can get pressure

Finally Brady can have his top 3 weapons on the field together relatively healthy!

 

[IllegalContact]

I tend to agree with you both, but it should also be noted that CAR also has the #4th ranked pass defense too, so it's not exactly like we're going up against someone who's ranked in the mid to late 20's or something.

Hopefully we can spread them out and have success, but I also think that some are considering it as a given, when it's certainly not.

#2 in run defense, #2 total defense, #4 in pass defense

the QB's the panthers have faced:

Russel Wilson - 300 yards and a loss
EJ Manuel - 287 yards and a loss
Eli Manning - 90 yard and a win
Carson Palmer - 160 yards and a loss
Matt Cassel - 215 yards and a win
Sam Bradford - 254 yards and win
Mike Glennon - 249 yards and a win
Matt Ryan - 211 yards and a win
Colin Kaepernick - 46 yards and a win

color me skeptical, but the majority of the teams have been able to move the ball through the air.

I like Brady's prospects in this one...the Panthers pass rush is spotty, and the Pats have not resorted to much uptempo.That will change as the Panthers will be caught in a defensive personnel grouping that will give up yards in huge chunks, and the pats will give the Saints the scheme that will kill the Panthers

This years Chicago Bears......beat up on a bunch of nothings, and then watch it unravel when they lose to a decent team at home

 

[IllegalContact]

Beating the Niners is no easy task.

Pats will have their hands full with Carolina.


If they don't play solid football on both sides of the ball, and ST's, they won't win.

depends on which kaepernick you get...another team that beat a bunch of body farts and nothing else

 

[Kontradiction]

the QB's the panthers have faced:

Russel Wilson - 300 yards and a loss
EJ Manuel - 287 yards and a loss
Eli Manning - 90 yard and a win
Carson Palmer - 160 yards and a loss
Matt Cassel - 215 yards and a win
Sam Bradford - 254 yards and win
Mike Glennon - 249 yards and a win
Matt Ryan - 211 yards and a win
Colin Kaepernick - 46 yards and a win

color me skeptical, but the majority of the teams have been able to move the ball through the air.

I like Brady's prospects in this one...the Panthers pass rush is spotty, and the Pats have not resorted to much uptempo.That will change as the Panthers will be caught in a defensive personnel grouping that will give up yards in huge chunks, and the pats will give the Saints the scheme that will kill the Panthers

This years Chicago Bears......beat up on a bunch of nothings, and then watch it unravel when they lose to a decent team at home

I think Gronk is going to have a monster game in this one. I don't see the Panthers having anyone that can match up with him.

 

[IllegalContact]

I think Gronk is going to have a monster game in this one. I don't see the Panthers having anyone that can match up with him.

the panthers have had the luxury of being able to be aggressive to the point of overpursuit.

Gronk will either be monster, or the slot and the RB will be wide open

 

[Jase]

I think Gronk is going to have a monster game in this one. I don't see the Panthers having anyone that can match up with him.

I disagree. :singing:

Gronk will likely get some catches, but if we're in a formation that puts a linebacker on the TE, I'll take Kuechly (arguably best coverage linebacker in NFL) and Davis (Converted safety, long frame, arguably second best coverage linebacker in NFL) over anyone.

Check out this crazy somersaulting INT Davis made vs Atlanta:

Thomas Davis Interception