Time to Reevaluate the Elite Quarterback's value to the team?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

There are currently six quarterbacks that have each won the SB MVP and appeared in a combined for a total of 14 Super Bowl appearances: Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. These are all elite, franchise QBs that have (maybe with the exception of Eli) proven that just having them on the field should be an automatic 12+ win season and near guaranteed playoff appearance.

The combined record of these six so far: 16-18. 18 losses. Last year, even with Eli Manning's 7 losses, these quarterbacks combined to lose only 20 games (granted, Peyton was out, but you would probably put that number at 24-25 if he were healthy.)

Are we seeing a change in the league, in which just having a great QB is no longer key to victory, or is this just a statistical anomaly, or better yet, still in the shadow of replacement officials?

To me, what has stood out is that these quarterbacks have continued to play at a very high level. If you look at the production from any of these six, it hasn't been far off from their typical season. What's changed is the amount of wins they are getting.

Theory: The advantage of these top quarterbacks is dwindling because the level of quarterback has been raised so much that even "elite" is only moderately better than 75% of the quarterbacks out there.

I started thinking about this when I heard a lot of Jets fans lament that Mark Sanchez is "average." Really? Average? This might have been true in 1985 or even 1995, but with today's rules, Mark Sanchez is a bottom-5 quarterback. Joe Flacco might have been a top-5 QB based on his numbers twenty years ago, but now he would be much closer to average.

I think that because of the favorable passing rules, it is easier today to draft a successful quarterback and even the "bad ones" are capable of lighting it up. If this becomes the case and the gap between elite and the rest is not as high, you may see the end of $22M per year quarterback contracts.

This would make sense because the stock in elite quarterbacks have been rising for so long with no limit on their value... eventually a bubble will be created and then burst. Things just don't go in the same direction forever because of competitive forces that counter them.

Thoughts?

 

[aluminum seats]

Well, you'd have to go back to 2003 to find a Super Bowl winner without an elite QB (and one non-elite winning every ten years or so is probably about right) so I think it remains important.

 

[12ClutchFactor]

I think that because of the favorable passing rules, it is easier today to draft a successful quarterback and even the "bad ones" are capable of lighting it up. If this becomes the case and the gap between elite and the rest is not as high, you may see the end of $22M per year quarterback contracts.
.

This right here is all you need to say. The rules have been tainted/tampered with in order to provide almost any qb with a hair of ability to scorch defenses. Thus, removing the advantage that the true elite qb's once had. The league basically legislated away true, consistent pass defense. Which is why Bill needs to take his foot off of the "Tom, go throw it 40 times and win us the game" pedal, and let him return to the game manager ( no, that phrase's connotative meaning should not always be negative.)

 

[BradyFTW!]

The replacement officials pretty much murdered passing games across the league for the first few weeks, so that definitely has to be taken into account. Against the Pats, Ray Lewis' version of coverage was to basically tackle Gronk every time he tried to run a route.

All in all, I think it's mostly extenuating circumstances for all of the QBs in question. Pittsburgh got old, New Orleans got nailed by sanctions, and Peyton's coming back from a year's absence on a new team. The Pats have one of the worst secondaries in NFL history, which is allowing even bad quarterbacks to keep up with Brady. If anything, I'd say that Eli just proved how valuable an elite quarterback really is - they just crushed the 49ers, who were supposed to be the unstoppable defense.

 

[PATSNUTme]

 

[IllegalContact]

the pats spending model has changed over the years.

when they used to win SB's, the majority of the money was spent on defensive quality. that has since shifted over to the offense.

for the price of an elite QB, you can 3-4 pro-bowl caliber defenders.

 

[12ClutchFactor]

the pats spending model has changed over the years.

when they used to win SB's, the majority of the money was spent on defensive quality. that has since shifted over to the offense.

for the price of an elite QB, you can 3-4 pro-bowl caliber defenders.

Interestingly, you can pinpoint the exact point in time where Belichick's spending model changed. Right after the 2006 AFCCG loss to the Colts, Belichick seemed to have, what to him, was an epiphany. It's like he said, "well, you can't play real defense anymore, the game is catering to offensive football, so let's stock up on an explosive offense and just become a scoring machine that beats the opponent to the finish line, instead of one that stops the opponent from reaching it." I think Belichick has now realized, I hope at least, that a great offense is still not enough without some kind of balance on the other side of the ball.

 

[bunuel]

Here are the "average" QBs in the NFL from now and a decade ago.

	Att	Comp	Comp%	Y/A	TD%	INT% 	QBRat	
2012	6443	3988	61.9%	7.3	4.3	2.9	86.3
2002	17292	10314	59.7%	6.7	4.0	3.1	80.4