This loss is mostly on the coaches

[Deus Irae]

Put it this way, if you are Miami, would you rather have

1) 16 seconds left and the ball at the 25;
or
2) 7 seconds left and the ball at the 31

If you're Miami, you'd rather have #1 all day, every day. The squib kick gave them #2.

Whether it's 16 seconds left, or 7 seconds left, here's the reality of the situation:

• Any play with a tackle in bounds is the end of the game (with the possible, though not certain, exception of that deliberate call for a 6 yard passing gain and an immediate spiking of the ball, which no coach is going to call), so the 9 second differential is only meaningful as a bailout on a short first throw attempt, unless your defense blows the play on the sideline. If the defense does blow the play on the sideline, and the receiver gets the completion, goes out of bounds, and leaves time on the clock, you've still got another chance to stop the TD. In other words, the defense would have to screw up 2 plays, instead of one, in order to lose in that scenario.
• Tannehill doesn't have the arm strength to make the throw to the endzone from either spot, so either way you've got to go miracle play.
• Tannehill's ankle limited his mobility, meaning there wasn't going to be an issue of DBs blowing coverage because of a QB scramble, unless the DB lost his mind
  
• Having to get 75 yards is more difficult than having to get 69 yards.

If we're looking at 30 seconds, or something like that, the squib makes more sense. But for 16 v. 7? No.

 

[Kontradiction]

Whether it's 16 seconds left, or 7 seconds left, here's the reality of the situation:

• Any play with a tackle in bounds is the end of the game (with the possible, though not certain, exception of that deliberate call for a 6 yard passing gain and an immediate spiking of the ball, which no coach is going to call), so the 9 second differential is only meaningful as a bailout on a short first throw attempt, unless your defense blows the play on the sideline. If the defense does blow the play on the sideline, and the receiver gets the completion, goes out of bounds, and leaves time on the clock, you've still got another chance to stop the TD. In other words, the defense would have to screw up 2 plays, instead of one, in order to lose in that scenario.
  
• Having to get 75 yards is more difficult than having to get 69 yards.

If we're looking at 30 seconds, or something like that, the squib makes more sense. But for 16 v. 7? No.

The decisions and execution on the ST have been uncharacteristically terrible throughout most of the season. The squib is basically just another example.

 

[Deus Irae]

The decisions and execution on the ST have been uncharacteristically terrible throughout most of the season. The squib is basically just another example.

Yep. I'm struggling to find enough of a pattern to figure out if it's because they're using too much analytics and not enough context, or if it's just garbage coaching/calling.

 

[PP2]

100% There were so many mistakes, everywhere you look. This is the NFL and when you screw up often enough, especially against a divisional opponent, you are probably going to lose. Just really bad situational football form the players and coaches, that we are used to seeing from other teams. Not ours!

You do realize that the '04 Pats, the best Patriots team ever, blew a 11 point lead with three minutes left in Miami?

If not for that, they would have been 15-1.

Miami is Miami.. we just never do well there, for one reason or another.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yep. I'm struggling to find enough of a pattern to figure out if it's because they're using too much analytics and not enough context, or if it's just garbage coaching/calling.

Probably a mixture of both. It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see the team part ways with Judge in the offseason at this point. It's really been that bad.

 

[captain stone]

...by the end of the week expect the discussion as to whether or not the game has passed BB by, he does not know how to draft and does not know how to team build etc. It happens after every loss.

...and for good reason.

 

[Deus Irae]

That kind of thinking is lazy. There were only 4 Patriots drives in the half, and 3 of them set up FG attempts. Furthermore, the last of the 3 FG attempt drives was completely botched at the end, by a coaching staff that was far too concerned with running the clock, and nowhere near concerned enough with icing the game.

• 11 play drive comes up empty because the kicker missed from 42
• 9 play drive leads to a punt
• 8 play drive leads to a FG
• 12 play drive leads to a FG (coaching issues in this drive, as this, AGAIN, ONLY THE PATRIOTS' 4TH DRIVE OF THE HALF, is the drive where the playcalling went stupid after the Patriots got first and goal from the 7.)

There was only one drive where the offense didn't do enough to earn points, and that's the drive where Cannon's false start set them back, and Brady ended up getting sacked on 3rd down.

If you want to talk about the ineffectiveness of the running game contributing to some issues, I'm willing to buy into that. If you want to blame the offense about "Being held to 6 points in the 2nd half", you don't really have a worthwhile argument.

The poster to whom I was responding acknowledged that he should back off of his position, yet QM decided that my post just had to get the "X" of disagreement.

 

[50-yard-line]

No. The Dolphins scored 2 TDs in the second half. The first was on a 4 play drive that started on their own 32, and the second was on a 1 play drive that started on their 31.

12 combined drives (plus kneel down) in the first half.
9 combined drives in the second half.

The Dolphins scored 5 TDs in the game, and they never had a drive of more than 6 plays. And, to make that even worse, the bet starting field position for the Dolphins was their own 32 yard line.

Man, that last paragraph is simply damning to the Pats' D.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Starting at the 25, It is more likely that they would have been looking downfield a bit, to try to get into at least "Hail Mary" distance, and they would have had an extra 9 seconds to do that. The squib kick took away that opportunity. Thanks for making the argument for the squib kick! It was an excellent coaching decision. One of the few...

I don't know if it was a great coaching decision, but it was certainly one of the most effective coaching decisions. Was Gostowski able to kick it out of the endzone or at least really deep into the endzone? I was hoping they wouldn't even put the Dolphins in position to return the ball.

 

[TheRainMaker]

You do realize that the '04 Pats, the best Patriots team ever, blew a 11 point lead with three minutes left in Miami?

If not for that, they would have been 15-1.

Miami is Miami.. we just never do well there, for one reason or another.

At the time, it was extremely frustrating because there was still a chance the Steelers could drop a game. But in the end, it didn't matter because the Steelers kept squeaking out victories.

 

[wheresmosi]

Yes, it's true that


IF THE DOLPHINS HAD DELIBERATELY USED ONE OF THEIR TWO REMAINING PLAYS TO STUPIDLY SETTLE FOR A 6 YARD GAIN, things would have come out even.


Do you think the Dolphins would have been looking for a 6 yard gain there, or is it more likely that they wouldn't have been so stupid as to set that up as their goal to start the drive? Is it more likely that they look downfield a bit, to try to get into at least "Hail Mary" distance, or is it more likely that they go for a 6 yard gain by passing to a RB coming out of the backfield or to a WR on a ridiculously short out?

Hi-but that's the whole reason the squib makes sense. If they are at the 25, they can get a pass out near midfield and then get out of bounds within 6 or 7 seconds. That leaves 8-10 seconds left, which is enough time for one and maybe even two throws into the endzone, from a makeable distance. It is true if they complete a long pass inbounds starting at the 25, most likely the clock runs out, but they could get a lonigish pass out of bounds.

 

[wheresmosi]

You do realize that the '04 Pats, the best Patriots team ever, blew a 11 point lead with three minutes left in Miami?

If not for that, they would have been 15-1.

Miami is Miami.. we just never do well there, for one reason or another.

I remember that--the one where they completed a pass over Troy Brown who was valiantly playing D. That one left me stunned as well. In fact, they were on the move and looked like they were going to go up by 18 and then the momentum shifted. But I think this one stings a little more, even if they all around played a worse game this time.

I do recall, I think, the Dolphins being worse in 2004, however. So maybe it's a wash.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hi-but that's the whole reason the squib makes sense. If they are at the 25, they can get a pass out near midfield and then get out of bounds within 6 or 7 seconds. That leaves 8-10 seconds left, which is enough time for one and maybe even two throws into the endzone, from a makeable distance. It is true if they complete a long pass inbounds starting at the 25, most likely the clock runs out, but they could get a lonigish pass out of bounds.

No. You've got a gimpy QB and receivers who are going to get funneled into the middle of the field. In that situation, the only way to get 20+ yards downfield and out of bounds is if the defense screws up and, in that situation, you're able to put the tall offensive player into the end zone instead of hanging his ass out to dry at the 15. So, again, it's screw up insurance. And, as we saw with the way the game played out, the Patriots defense sure as hell could have used some of that.

 

[DarrylS]

...and for good reason.

Guess all that talk about the impending 10 seasons in a row to make the playoffs and being in the conference championship 6 of the last 8 years is "fake news"... this team needs work, no doubt, but to dismiss it completely is a tad idiotic..

 

[wheresmosi]

No. You've got a gimpy QB and receivers who are going to get funneled into the middle of the field. In that situation, the only way to get 20+ yards downfield and out of bounds is if the defense screws up and, in that situation, you're able to put the tall offensive player into the end zone instead of hanging his ass out to dry at the 15. So, again, it's screw up insurance. And, as we saw with the way the game played out, the Patriots defense sure as hell could have used some of that.

If I understand you correctly, you are saying the Dolphins would not have run the play they did if they had had 16 seconds rather than 7, so at worst they do get out of bounds, with 1 or 2 shots in the endzone after that, and you'd have the D to stop that. But it seems clear to me that anything that maximizes their chance for 2 or even 3 plays vs. almost certainly just 1 play, for the sake of a few yards, is not as good of a decision. If they get the ball at the 25, they could throw it incomplete, and still be in the position to do what they did from the 31. Sure, they could complete it and the game could run out, but if they complete it and get stuck in the middle of the field, they are going to do what they ended up doing anyway, and that almost certainly would have scored if they started from the 25 as it was starting from the 31.

 

[tasmlab]

Question: how would the clock would've looked if the Pats ran for a fourth time on Fourth down.

Even if stuffed:
- 2 pts up
- Turnover on downs
- Dolphins 98 yards to go for TD
- Time left to do so?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Question: how would the clock would've looked if the Pats ran for a fourth time on Fourth down.

Even if stuffed:
- 2 pts up
- Turnover on downs
- Dolphins 98 yards to go for TD
- Time left to do so?

Clock had 20 seconds on it coming into 4th down. Clock would then stop on the dead ball regardless of the result of the 4th down play (because clock stops on a failed 4th down and clock stops on a TD). So if it's a run that doesn't score, there would probably be 14-16 seconds left.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Clock had 20 seconds on it coming into 4th down. Clock would then stop on the dead ball regardless of the result of the 4th down play (because clock stops on a failed 4th down and clock stops on a TD). So if it's a run that doesn't score, there would probably be 14-16 seconds left.

14-16 seconds with no TOs to go 75 yards for a GW FG? In retrospect I wish the Pats just went for it on 4th down.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

14-16 seconds with no TOs to go 75 yards for a GW FG? In retrospect I wish the Pats just went for it on 4th down.

Why assume NE plays the inevitable lateral play in that situation any better than they did in what actually happened? With the kind of stupidity, nonchalance, and half-assing NE displayed on the actual final play, Miami could just as easily gone 70 yards to set up a game winning FG in your scenario.

 

[pazrul72]

Why assume NE plays the inevitable lateral play in that situation any better than they did in what actually happened? With the kind of stupidity, nonchalance, and half-assing NE displayed on the actual final play, Miami could just as easily gone 70 yards to set up a game winning FG in your scenario.

With no timeouts Miami has to worry about the clock and wouldn't have run the hook and ladder play. That only works when you give zero $%#*s about the clock and HAVE to score a TD no matter what. I had a bad feeling when they kicked the FG even when my wife, who was telling me all game crazy **** happens in Miami they are gonna lose, said "huh guess I was wrong." I figured they were more likely to give up one awful play then 2-3 bad ones.