The Ultimate Belichick Horror Draft

[Don Kipines]

Every year we all do a million mock drafts and read through all the draft guides -- and yet every year BB manages to make picks that shock almost everybody. How is that possible? How can we still have WTF picks when for years now we've all been expecting the unexpected?

I went back and looked at all of BB's selections with the Pats and picked out some classic WTF picks, then tried to look at this year's draft and predict which players might be picked using that particular logic.

All of us think we can't be surprised again after what's happened in recent years, but we can be -- we're probably just not imagining the right players in the right rounds:

17 JARVIS JENKINS - One classically maddening Belichick trait (not to say that he's always wrong) is to trade up for or aggressively draft someone a good round or two or three above everyone else's projection. The most surprising thing about the Tyson Alualu pick was that it wasn't Belichick making the choice -- that was Jacksonville high on the BB spirit. For "BB overdrafts" think Sebastian Vollmer, Jermaine Cunningham, Terrence Wheatley, and Matt Slater (did BB really think someone else was a threat to pick Slater before round 7?). Even Jerod Mayo and Ty Warren were mocked in the late first/early 2nd; Mankins was mocked quite late as well, although it's subsequently come out that two other teams were after him in that late-1st range. Again, he's not always wrong to draft these players this high, just the opposite -- it's just that comes as a surprise to see these names picked this high.

With these picks you're looking for a good, solid player who's rated in the third-fourth-round range but starts buzzing upward as the draft approaches. Everybody thinks Muhammad Wilkerson is the Ty Warren analog, but watch the pre-draft buzz on Jenkins, another natural 5-technique from a big conference. It may not be 17, but at 28 or 33, Jarvis Jenkins could happen. BB probably wouldn't pick him lower than that, because that would make sense.

28 JAMES CARPENTER - BB has a history of aggressively drafting productive college tackles who are projected to play guard -- think George Bussey, Nick Kaczur, Logan Mankins. The Carpenter pick here fits also the BB tendency to grab a guy at a spot where every mock draft in the world has the Pats picking some other player at the same position, a la the Warren pick (when so many people had us picking William Joseph, Dewayne Robertson, or Jonathan Sullivan). Since so many people are projecting Pouncey, Watkins, or one of the tackles here, Carpenter seems like a classic WTF pick, especially since as a Nick Sabanite he also fits in the "coached in college by a Belichick pal" category of player.

33 QUAN STURDIVANT - In the Patrick Chung mold of a good, productive college player with strikingly average measurables, drafted with a premium pick, seemingly 15-20 spots too high, at a position of relative non-need.

55 RICARDO LOCKETTE - Homage to Bethel Johnson: combine standout nobody else is going to touch before round 5, aggressively chosen in round 2 by New England, which inexplicably trades up five spots to get him.

74 ANTHONY GAITOR - There are a dozen higher-rated corners on the board, all with better measurables, but we must have the short guy with so-so college production (Wheatley) whom you might never have heard of (Ellis Hobbs), isn't a candidate for safety conversion if he proves too slow outside (Asante Samuel), and probably won't give you a lot on special teams (Jonathan Wilhite).

92 ZACH PIANALTO - Because you can never have enough undersized, athletically-limited H-backs with no obvious role in your current offense (think Garrett Mills). Charles Clay is the pick I'm really afraid of, but even Belichick wouldn't take two underpowered, overachieving H-backs from Tulsa -- would he?

152 GREG LLOYD - Let's say this turned into a fifth-round pick; we had to swap the fourth-rounder and give up a future fifth to acquire Ricardo Lockette. Lloyd is the son of an NFL legend who had a really average college career and has no business going before the seventh round, so naturally he goes to the Pats in the fifth; the Matt Slater memorial selection. BB loves legacy picks in the middle rounds (see Klecko, Ruud, Slater).

159 ALEX LOUKAS - The fifth round is usually where the Patriots start picking guys who aren't in any draft guides, don't exist on video anywhere on the internet, etc. A lot of mocks have us going after Mitch Mustain late, but Loukas is the real Matt Cassel memorial pick: a career backup to a college standout (Andrew Luck) with great measurables (he's 6-4 and ran a 4.48 at his pro day). Like Cassell, Loukas was a good enough athlete that the coach switched him to another position briefly to try to get him on the field (in this case, Loukas briefly played safety for Harbaugh). He's also a legacy pick, which Belichick loves; his dad Angelo played for the Patriots.

192 PHILLIP SWANSON - The Corey Hilliard/Mike Elgin/George Bussey/Thomas Welch/Dan Stevenson "Who the f--k is that guy?" pick. For some reason, the Pats love them some totally unknown (and often undersized) offensive linemen late in the draft. You're saying to yourself: "Can picking LeGarrette Blount or Brandon Banks here really have less of a chance of succeeding than picking this guy?"

There are times with the Patriots where you just wish Belichick would let it go for a few hours and just make picks using the "McShay's top 5 available" as a guide for a round or two. The Pats do such a great job of acquiring extra selections that the only way they can really screw things up is to perform significantly worse than the average in terms of the actual selections. In other words, if you married Belichick's unique talent for getting extra picks to merely-average drafting methodology, you'd be way ahead of the game. That's why his outside-the-box thinking is so scary sometimes. Most of the time, it works out great -- but sometimes it doesn't.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Ayers of UCLA is a guy that I would not be able to see fitting in to our defense. But it is possible that BB could tweak the defense to accommodate his talents.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Could BB WTF us again with a CB?

Examples:

#17 Jimmy Smith- WTF

or at

#28 Brandon Harris - WTF

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Could BB WTF us again with a CB?

Examples:

#17 Jimmy Smith- WTF

or at

#28 Brandon Harris - WTF

Yes, he loves secondary guys and has little to show for hoards of them that we have drafted over the past four years or so.

But he could also take a TE, RB, or WR early and throw us all for a loop.

And what if he took Locker at #17?

 

[mgdouche]

Certainly we have learned by now that Belichick's board differs significantly from those of the "experts," so the so-called "WTF picks" are not such from his perspective. Experts and their mocks operate on an overall perspective, whereas Belichick is concerned only with his specific system and those select players who fit what he wants to do. A player ranked a generic 50th overall may fit the Patriots terribly and be ranked much lower or not at all in the Patriots war room. A player Belichick rates a great fit will, therefore, be ranked much higher than the expert rankings and, consequently, be selected at what is seen as an overdraft. If all teams had the same system and valued players the same - rather than the highly specific Patriots model - then picks would come off the board in a much more predictable manner. One man's value is another man's overdraft.

Every year we all do a million mock drafts and read through all the draft guides -- and yet every year BB manages to make picks that shock almost everybody. How is that possible? How can we still have WTF picks when for years now we've all been expecting the unexpected?

I went back and looked at all of BB's selections with the Pats and picked out some classic WTF picks, then tried to look at this year's draft and predict which players might be picked using that particular logic.

All of us think we can't be surprised again after what's happened in recent years, but we can be -- we're probably just not imagining the right players in the right rounds:

17 JARVIS JENKINS - One classically maddening Belichick trait (not to say that he's always wrong) is to trade up for or aggressively draft someone a good round or two or three above everyone else's projection. The most surprising thing about the Tyson Alualu pick was that it wasn't Belichick making the choice -- that was Jacksonville high on the BB spirit. For "BB overdrafts" think Sebastian Vollmer, Jermaine Cunningham, Terrence Wheatley, and Matt Slater (did BB really think someone else was a threat to pick Slater before round 7?). Even Jerod Mayo and Ty Warren were mocked in the late first/early 2nd; Mankins was mocked quite late as well, although it's subsequently come out that two other teams were after him in that late-1st range. Again, he's not always wrong to draft these players this high, just the opposite -- it's just that comes as a surprise to see these names picked this high.

There are times with the Patriots where you just wish Belichick would let it go for a few hours and just make picks using the "McShay's top 5 available" as a guide for a round or two. The Pats do such a great job of acquiring extra selections that the only way they can really screw things up is to perform significantly worse than the average in terms of the actual selections. In other words, if you married Belichick's unique talent for getting extra picks to merely-average drafting methodology, you'd be way ahead of the game. That's why his outside-the-box thinking is so scary sometimes. Most of the time, it works out great -- but sometimes it doesn't.

 

[Don Kipines]

Certainly we have learned by now that Belichick's board differs significantly from those of the "experts," so the so-called "WTF picks" are not such from his perspective. Experts and their mocks operate on an overall perspective, whereas Belichick is concerned only with his specific system and those select players who fit what he wants to do. A player ranked a generic 50th overall may fit the Patriots terribly and be ranked much lower or not at all in the Patriots war room. A player Belichick rates a great fit will, therefore, be ranked much higher than the expert rankings and, consequently, be selected at what is seen as an overdraft. If all teams had the same system and valued players the same - rather than the highly specific Patriots model - then picks would come off the board in a much more predictable manner. One man's value is another man's overdraft.

As I said, I'm not saying he's wrong when he does this. I'm just saying it's surprising and that he manages every year to shock us even though we're expecting to be shocked.

That said, if his board is so different than everyone else's, the possibility still exists that he's picking guys too high -- because he could have picked these same players in lower rounds. Almost certainly Slater and Bethel Johnson and George Bussey and Rich Ohrnberger and Terrence Wheatley could have been picked a round or two later. Even if he does value those players that highly, it's less-than-ideal drafting if he's overpaying for guys he could have gotten later, or as free agents.

 

[rookBoston]

The reason why BB drafts are so full of WTF moments is because he uses different scouting sources that we do. The Combine results are leaked to us, but we don't get the Pats scouting reports. So our slant is different. But, hell, if no one saw Mankins and McCourty coming so much the better, because BB clearly proved his staff to have a good eye for talent.

One thing OP didn't put unto his Horror Draft is a few million trade downs and trade outs! That must certainly be part of the WTF experience Pats fans enjoy each year.

I've spent some time thinking about what a WTF draft looks like, and here's what I'd say would have this board on fire with angry fans.

#17 - with JJ Watt, Prince Amukamura and Ryan Kerrigan all on the board, BB decides to trade down to the mid-20s, plus a 2nd round pick

#25 - Watt, Amukamura and Kerrigan are all gone, now. BB spends his pick on Adrian Clayborn. Pats fans are inconsolable.

#28 - Pats select QB Jake Locker

And so ends Day One, with a DE that no one especially admires, except maybe BB, and a QB that wont see the field for years.

 

[mgdouche]

Fair enough. I jus't see sometimes that people get so wrapped up in the "I haven't seen player X go before the fourth in any mock" game when it's so much more important that Belichick gets the player he wants. I mean, we hear him talk of value so much that it becomes obvious that he takes player X in round 3 because - by his rankings for his system - he views the player as value at that slot. Otherwise, he would have taken someone else (or traded out if the value wasn't there).

Ultimately, if he believes in a player and fit, it doesn't matter if he gets him in the 3rd or 4th if he's satisfied of the value. Waiting could mean losing out on the player altogether. If he wants a player, get him on the team and let him compete. Of course, once the players hit camp, Belichick has proven that a UDFA is perfectly capable of beating out a draftee.

While he's proven adept at moving around the draft board, it's probably more difficult than most posters imagine. Saying "he could have moved down and taken him later" is a valid sentiment, maybe the right opportunity doesn't present itself. Probably more trades fall through than are completed. Better to get the player you want - wherever your pick falls - than be concerned about anyone else's perception of value.

Now, of course, picks work out and don't work out. That is determined over time.

As I said, I'm not saying he's wrong when he does this. I'm just saying it's surprising and that he manages every year to shock us even though we're expecting to be shocked.

That said, if his board is so different than everyone else's, the possibility still exists that he's picking guys too high -- because he could have picked these same players in lower rounds. Almost certainly Slater and Bethel Johnson and George Bussey and Rich Ohrnberger and Terrence Wheatley could have been picked a round or two later. Even if he does value those players that highly, it's less-than-ideal drafting if he's overpaying for guys he could have gotten later, or as free agents.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Could BB WTF us again with a CB?

Examples:

#17 Jimmy Smith- WTF

or at

#28 Brandon Harris - WTF

It would not be a WTF moment for me; having three lock-down CBs can help the defense tremendously. And you want to prevent the offense from throwing away from McCourty. And another huge reasons they could take a CB is if that CB could also be switched to saftey; I have to imagine that the Patriots are getting sick of the gangsta safety they have now.

 

[patfanken]

I just want to commend you for your thoroughly original concept for this thread. I wish I had thought of it. . Not only was is original, you carried the concept through to a very possible conclusion. Great Job.....and god I hope you are wrong

 

[BelichickFan]

I just want to commend you for your thoroughly original concept for this thread. I wish I had thought of it. . Not only was is original, you carried the concept through to a very possible conclusion. Great Job.....and god I hope you are wrong

No, it's the worst thread in a while.

Mayo was expoected to be a mid #1.
Warren was expected to be a mid #1.
Mankins was likely to be taken by SF the pick after we took him.
Jermain Cunningham was expected to go around where he did.

If you want to lose sleep over a great pick in Vollmer or a bad pick in Wheatley feel free but the concept is pathetic.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I've got to disagree with OP's premise. BB doesn't deliberately overdraft. He drafts according to a different value chart because the Pats rely on their own scouting service rather than the national scouting services. The Pats ARE AWARE of other teams possible needs because they do run their own mocks where they project other teams selections. But that doesn't affect how they value their own players according to their own 'team specific' rankings.

And the Pats DO TRADE DOWN often to gain value when they believe they can still get their guy a few spots later. This has been well documented over the years, Mayo, McCourty, etc. were acquired after trade downs. The other thing to remember is you don't always get trade down offers so you can't create a trade out of thin air. There has to be demand from other teams as well. Though an interesting read, the point is incorrect. BB doesn't 'overdraft' at least not according to his draft board. And he trys to create extra value when he can if he feels he can still get his guy and move down.

BB also doesn't pick guys we've never heard of to be 'clever' or to 'frustrate' fans. He does it because those are guys his scouts are high on. The fact that the national scouting services overlooked the guy is immaterial but it has the fans following the draft hitting google as they go huh, who's that?

 

[Don Kipines]

I've got to disagree with OP's premise. BB doesn't deliberately overdraft. He drafts according to a different value chart because the Pats rely on their own scouting service rather than the national scouting services. The Pats ARE AWARE of other teams possible needs because they do run their own mocks where they project other teams selections. But that doesn't affect how they value their own players according to their own 'team specific' rankings.

And the Pats DO TRADE DOWN often to gain value when they believe they can still get their guy a few spots later. This has been well documented over the years, Mayo, McCourty, etc. were acquired after trade downs. The other thing to remember is you don't always get trade down offers so you can't create a trade out of thin air. There has to be demand from other teams as well. Though an interesting read, the point is incorrect. BB doesn't 'overdraft' at least not according to his draft board. And he trys to create extra value when he can if he feels he can still get his guy and move down.

BB also doesn't pick guys we've never heard of to be 'clever' or to 'frustrate' fans. He does it because those are guys his scouts are high on. The fact that the national scouting services overlooked the guy is immaterial but it has the fans following the draft hitting google as they go huh, who's that?

Guys, I'm the biggest Belichick fan there is. I love the guy and I love the way he drafts. He's right more often than not when he picks outside of the box. But even his biggest fans have to admit he reaches from time to time.

If nobody is going to pick Matthew Slater in the draft, and you spend a fifth-rounder on him, that's a miss. Same with Wheatley, and Bussey, and Ohrnberger, etc. For all his success in drafting, Belichick has definitely spent some curious picks on guys he easily could have gotten as free agents or in the seventh round. And those picks are the ones that have us scratching our heads the most on draft day.

But even this isn't the point. I'm not even criticizing his drafts. I'm talking specifically about that WTF effect on draft day. Some of his best picks have been the ones that have horrified fans the most on draft day. Mankins was a great example. The whole point of the post was to try to predict those WTF picks. We're all sitting here saying, nothing will surprise us ever again, and yet every year we're surprised, and so I'm trying to guess what would actually be a surprise.

This post is not a criticism of Belichick, it's a TRIBUTE to his entertainingly unpredictable draft strategy, which carries both positives and negatives, both of which I'm trying to capture here. Even his most ardent admirers can't claim they were stoked when they George Bussey and Garrett Mills picks came in. I'm just trying to guess what we might get along those lines this year.

 

[Seneschal2]

I'm just saying it's surprising and that he manages every year to shock us even though we're expecting to be shocked.

I've NEVER been shocked by any of his picks. Been surprised by three early picks in his draft history (I checked):

RB Maroney -- didn't think he'd draft a RB in round one. Had no problem with the player.

QB O'Connell -- didn't think he'd spend a third-rounder on the position, considering Brady's age and production. No problem with the player.

DE/OLB Cunningham -- surprised me with the round (#53), only because I work w/ Gosselin's top 100 on draft day and Cunningham was ranked at #94. Once again, I wasn't disappointed with the player.

That said, if his board is so different than everyone else's, the possibility still exists that he's picking guys too high -- because he could have picked these same players in lower rounds. Almost certainly Slater and Bethel Johnson and George Bussey and Rich Ohrnberger and Terrence Wheatley could have been picked a round or two later. Even if he does value those players that highly, it's less-than-ideal drafting if he's overpaying for guys he could have gotten later, or as free agents.

Why is Belichick "overpaying" if he ends up with the players he wants? The two I highlighted were official sleeper picks of mine -- so I know them well:

Bethel -- I thought would go early day two (4-5). When he went in round two, I thought that was early, only to read a post-draft article listing him as one of the late risers and projected in round two. I was correct w/ the player -- but wrong about his projection. I've since learned to be less concerned about where...and more interested in the players who fit the system.

Wheatley -- had him where he went (R2)

17 JARVIS JENKINS, 28 JAMES CARPENTER

Both are on my list of Pats prospects, and rest assured the novices and pundits will collectively cry out -- REACH! -- if they're selected where you've slotted them. But I truly won't care because BB got the players he wanted -- which is all that's important as he attempts to rebuild the roster (IMHO).

Draft management isn't as easy as fans make it out to be. It's an inexact science still proven to be a crapshoot. BB will do the best he can...no need to be shocked.

EDIT: Forgot to add that Gosselin had Ty Warren mocked that year at #14 to the Pats (selected at 13). So not really a reach...

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

17 JARVIS JENKINS - I can see this pick, though it might come after a trade down or two.

28 JAMES CARPENTER - Based strictly on measurables of prior NE picks, this pick doesn't happen before mid-second, and that would appear to be high. Still, I like the selection.

33 QUAN STURDIVANT - a clear change of direction, I have no clue where to use him.

55 RICARDO LOCKETTE - The character concerns are a bit scary this high, as is his lack of college production even against lower level kids.

74 ANTHONY GAITOR - You're right, I have no idea who he is off the top of my head.

92 ZACH PIANALTO - Good pick.

152 GREG LLOYD - Another where do you use him?

159 ALEX LOUKAS - Interesting connection.

192 PHILLIP SWANSON - You got me again, who?

A fun exercise, thanks.

 

[sbpatfan]

It's not something you can prove unless all 31 teams were to release a statement saying that they had no intentions of drafting player X until pick Y even though Belichick took him at Z. Player values are obviously going to differ for each team.

 

[DW Toys]

It would not be a WTF moment for me; having three lock-down CBs can help the defense tremendously. And you want to prevent the offense from throwing away from McCourty. And another huge reasons they could take a CB is if that CB could also be switched to saftey; I have to imagine that the Patriots are getting sick of the gangsta safety they have now.

Smith I can see. Harris is a smallish slot only CB with no ball skills. That would be a WTF moment for me unless it is in round three or four.

I think we drink too much Kool Aid with BB on his picks. They come out good or they wind up being terrible. For every 2010 there is a 2006.

He has traded down and away on way too many decent players to trade into the next year and it has blown up in his face.

Scout mistakes are one thing but he signs off on the pick. Think Wheatley, Maroney, Jackson, O'Connell (WTF!), Crable, Ornberger and lately maybe Butler and Tate are that next wasted high end pick. When you think of Mayo and Volmer, consider some of the others to temper this.
DW Toys

 

[MaineMan]

Smith I can see. Harris is a smallish slot only CB with no ball skills. That would be a WTF moment for me unless it is in round three or four.

I think we drink too much Kool Aid with BB on his picks. They come out good or they wind up being terrible. For every 2010 there is a 2006.

He has traded down and away on way too many decent players to trade into the next year and it has blown up in his face.

Scout mistakes are one thing but he signs off on the pick. Think Wheatley, Maroney, Jackson, O'Connell (WTF!), Crable, Ornberger and lately maybe Butler and Tate are that next wasted high end pick. When you think of Mayo and Volmer, consider some of the others to temper this.
DW Toys

The only thing worse than that fateful 2006 draft was the rest of the 2006 off-season in which they lost Vinatieri, Givens, McGinest, Tyrone Poole, Deion Branch and six other free agents. Of course, as we all know, the team completely fell apart that year and the following year.

In contrast, the Texans got Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels and Tramon Williams out of that draft and have gone on to kick butt ever since. Similarly, the Panthers cleaned up with DeAngelo Williams, Richard Marshall, James Anderson, Rashad Butler, Nate Salley, Jeff King, Will Montgomery and Stanley McClover and completely turned the team's fortunes around.

 

[Don Kipines]

Why is Belichick "overpaying" if he ends up with the players he wants?

Because objectively speaking, he just is. If you take a guy in the fourth you can get in the seventh, there's an opportunity cost because the pool of players you can choose from in the next round is smaller.

There's obviously no way to tell if another team would have picked this or that player afterward, but some choices are more sensible than others. Matt Slater was a player who literally had no position in college -- there just couldn't possibly have been much reason to think that any team was going to take him before the seventh round. Who knows, maybe Carl Nicks or Athyba Rubin were on Belichick's board, too; but because he took Slater, those guys weren't around in the sixth that year. So instead, they took Bo Ruud.

Like I said, I love Belichick's drafting. On draft day I never worry too much about his picks because especially with the high choices, it's the WTF picks that tend to pan out; where he gets in the most trouble high up is when he drafts highly-touted combine favorites like Chad Jackson and Laurence Maroney.

But you have to admit, the guy does have a habit of making out-of-nowhere draft choices, and especially in the middle-to-later rounds, he seems to have a habit of outsmarting himself at times and flouting his against-the-grainness in the league's face. When he takes guys like Slater and Justice Hairston, it's almost like he's playing a super-duper bonus round of Stump the Schwab or something, i.e. "See if you can pick someone in the fifth round about whom Mel Kiper doesn't have even one pithily wrong observation ready to make." I can definitely see the fun in that, but it's less amusing when the Colts are drafting Pierre Garcons in those same rounds.

I'm fine with it, because so many of these weird picks have panned out, sometimes spectacularly (Vollmer, Cassel, etc), but there's still an entertainingly high panic/shock/pucker factor with being a Pats fan on draft day. That's all I'm saying here and that's all this list was about, having fun with that dynamic.

 

[Water Boy]

For "BB overdrafts" think Sebastian Vollmer, Jermaine Cunningham, Terrence Wheatley, and Matt Slater (did BB really think someone else was a threat to pick Slater before round 7?).

I wouldn't lump Vollmer into your "overdraft" category.