The Ravens new explosive offense

[i82much]

Denver gave up completions of 59 and 70 yards to the Ravens and a 32 yard run to Ray Rice. The Ravens had a 43 yard run against Indy and receptions of 47 and 50 yards.

In contrast, over the last 8 games the Pats have given up 1 completion over 50 yards (53 yards against Jacksonville) and 2 over 40 (a 47 yard TD pass to TY Hilton and Indy when the game was already a blowout). The longest offensive rushing play the Pats have given up all season has been 23 yards

The ratings of the opposing QBs in those 8 games:

- Andrew Luck: 63.3 (27/50, 324 yards, 2 TD, 3 INTs including 2 pick-6's)
- Mark Sanchez:94.8 (24/36, 301 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)
- Ryan Tannehill: 66.2 (13/29, 186 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT)
- Matt Schaub: 68.8 (19/32, 232 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT)
- Colin Kaepernick:108.5 (14/25, 221 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT)
- Chad Henne: 59.9 (29/51, 348 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT)
- Ryan Tannehill: 65.8 (20/35, 235 yards, 0 TD, 1 iNT)
- Matt Schaub: 90.6 (34/51, 343 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT)

Ok, but ... unless those numbers are substantially better than Denver's numbers vs. opposing quarterbacks over the past 8 games, it doesn't tell us much. Denver's D was ranked pretty high, yet Baltimore was able to take advantage of them downfield.

Another point - you've got to take what you're given. If Denver is going to go with Champ one on one vs. Torrey to commit the safeties elsewhere, why not go up top if you think you've got the advantage?

The offense has been much more consistent at generating big plays over the past few weeks. You can ascribe that to luck or playing over their heads if you wish, but there are two very real reasons why they have improved. (1) Caldwell moving Flacco around in the pocket, and (2) McKinnie.

 

[Dscola]

Denver gave up completions of 59 and 70 yards to the Ravens and a 32 yard run to Ray Rice. The Ravens had a 43 yard run against Indy and receptions of 47 and 50 yards.

In contrast, over the last 8 games the Pats have given up 1 completion over 50 yards (53 yards against Jacksonville) and 2 over 40 (a 47 yard TD pass to TY Hilton and Indy when the game was already a blowout). The longest offensive rushing play the Pats have given up all season has been 23 yards

The ratings of the opposing QBs in those 8 games:

- Andrew Luck: 63.3 (27/50, 324 yards, 2 TD, 3 INTs including 2 pick-6's)
- Mark Sanchez:94.8 (24/36, 301 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)
- Ryan Tannehill: 66.2 (13/29, 186 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT)
- Matt Schaub: 68.8 (19/32, 232 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT)
- Colin Kaepernick:108.5 (14/25, 221 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT)
- Chad Henne: 59.9 (29/51, 348 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT)
- Ryan Tannehill: 65.8 (20/35, 235 yards, 0 TD, 1 iNT)
- Matt Schaub: 90.6 (34/51, 343 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT)

One other thing to note. Though Baltimore has produced some huge big plays in the past 2 games, they haven't been good at moving the chains. They were 4-10 on 3rd down against Indy and produced only 18 1st downs, and they were 7-17 against Denver with only 21 first downs in 5+ quarters of football. That's not particularly impressive. They are a big play offense, not a move the chains offense, and they are going up against a defense that has excelled over the past 8 games at limited the big play and at getting off the field on 3rd down (33% opponent conversion rate over that period). So it will be interesting to see how things play out on Sunday.

Again, if the deep play is there, they taker the shots. I'm quite sure the Pats will come into the game trying to take this away and I'm quite sure the Ravens coaches will attempt to adjust and attack differently.

 

[BelichickFan]

This is discussed in a typically awesome article by Football Outsiders :

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Conference Championships

Scroll down for : "Ravens offense vs. Patriots defense"

An excerpt of the beginning :

"Yes, ultimately the Ravens offense hung 31 points on a Broncos defense that ranked fifth in DVOA coming into the divisional round. But take away the once-in-a-lifetime touchdown to Jacoby Jones (which was more a product of bad defense by Rahim Moore) and the story of that game would have been the adjustments Denver made defensively to stop Baltimore’s passing attack in the second half.

Before the Jones touchdown, the Ravens had netted just 36 yards passing in the second half. That was because the Broncos went to more two-high coverages, which prompted the Ravens to run the ball more. Ray Rice, with 13 hard-fought carries coming mostly against a seven-man box, produced 87 yards in the third and fourth quarters. But the Ravens mustered just seven points on their first five second-half possessions."

 

[Deus Irae]

Ravens are averaging 180+ yards rushing per game the last 6 games.. Caldwell is using more of the middle of the field now.. we have the Tight-Ends and a strong possession type receiver to do it.. don't see what about the Patriots Defense matches up that well in this category..

Unless they can generate a lot of pressure with only their front 4.. Flacco is more than capable once he is comfortable in the pocket to play the intermediate game.. Ray Rice, Boldin, Pitta, ****son are good targets.

The Ravens still have a very good possesion receiver in Anquan, 2 very good tight ends, and Ray Rice as pass catchers. It's not like they just line up and chuck it deep every play. If it's there, they'll go for it. If not, settle for a shorter play.

Guys, I'm not one who thinks the Ravens have no shot, although I do expect a double digit Patriots win. However, have you seen the splits for Flacco for throws of 20 yards and under versus those of 21+ yards?

His numbers this year:

Up to 20 yards:

293 for 448 and 2981 yards
16 TDs 10 INTs
71.1 QB rating

21+ yards:

24 for 83 and 836 yards
6 TDs 0 INTs
92.1 QB rating

The question I asked you:

Assuming the Patriots adjust to shut down the deep ball, can Flacco consistently take his team up and down the field?

Is, I believe, likely to be where this game is won or lost for the Ravens. Although "any given Sunday" certainly applies, the numbers favor the Patriots in that scenario.

 

[mvrabel50]

Anybody else a little nervous about Kyle Arrington? I think baltimore is gonna go after him deep a lot. Seems like everytime he covers someone deep he's got he loses sight of the ball and gets a DPI call against him.

 

[mayoclinic]

Ok, but ... unless those numbers are substantially better than Denver's numbers vs. opposing quarterbacks over the past 8 games, it doesn't tell us much. Denver's D was ranked pretty high, yet Baltimore was able to take advantage of them downfield.

Another point - you've got to take what you're given. If Denver is going to go with Champ one on one vs. Torrey to commit the safeties elsewhere, why not go up top if you think you've got the advantage?

The offense has been much more consistent at generating big plays over the past few weeks. You can ascribe that to luck or playing over their heads if you wish, but there are two very real reasons why they have improved. (1) Caldwell moving Flacco around in the pocket, and (2) McKinnie.

Again, if the deep play is there, they taker the shots. I'm quite sure the Pats will come into the game trying to take this away and I'm quite sure the Ravens coaches will attempt to adjust and attack differently.

Obviously adjustments will be made. No one said it's going to be easy, for either side.

The Pats are pretty clear about needing to guard agianst the deep ball, both because of Baltimore's recent success and because they were burned badly with it earlier this year:

McCourty: Patriots focused on taking away deep ball
McCourty: Deep thoughts vs. Ravens - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Do the Ravens have other weapons? Sure. Rice, ****son, Pitta. Jones has good short area quickness as well as deep speed. Though as Deus has pointed out, Flacco's strength has generally not been his quick release and timing in the short/medium passing game, it's been his strong arm in the deep game. So just by making the Ravens shift their focus, I like our odds a bit better. The status and effectiveness of Bernard Pierce will be a big factor, as he was a huge weapon for the Ravens against the Giants, Bengals and Indy. But again, the Pats have generally been good against the run, and have generally done well against power runners all year, including guys like Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore.

 

[RayVNLewis]

Obviously adjustments will be made. No one said it's going to be easy, for either side.

The Pats are pretty clear about needing to guard agianst the deep ball, both because of Baltimore's recent success and because they were burned badly with it earlier this year:

McCourty: Patriots focused on taking away deep ball
McCourty: Deep thoughts vs. Ravens - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Do the Ravens have other weapons? Sure. Rice, ****son, Pitta. Jones has good short area quickness as well as deep speed. Though as Deus has pointed out, Flacco's strength has generally not been his quick release and timing in the short/medium passing game, it's been his strong arm in the deep game. So just by making the Ravens shift their focus, I like our odds a bit better. The status and effectiveness of Bernard Pierce will be a big factor, as he was a huge weapon for the Ravens against the Giants, Bengals and Indy. But again, the Pats have generally been good against the run, and have generally done well against power runners all year, including guys like Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore.

Are the Patriots going to try and stop the run and the deep ball at the same time ?

Won't that open up the middle of the field to Pitta and ****son ?

 

[Nunchucks]

Are the Patriots going to try and stop the run and the deep ball at the same time ?

Won't that open up the middle of the field to Pitta and ****son ?

I guess the Ravens are an unstoppable offensive juggernaut, the Patriots are doomed.

 

[PatsSox363804]

Are the Patriots going to try and stop the run and the deep ball at the same time ?

Won't that open up the middle of the field to Pitta and ****son ?

Well the Ravens should be scoring 50 a game with that logic.

 

[RayVNLewis]

This is discussed in a typically awesome article by Football Outsiders :

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Conference Championships

Scroll down for : "Ravens offense vs. Patriots defense"

An excerpt of the beginning :

"Yes, ultimately the Ravens offense hung 31 points on a Broncos defense that ranked fifth in DVOA coming into the divisional round. But take away the once-in-a-lifetime touchdown to Jacoby Jones (which was more a product of bad defense by Rahim Moore) and the story of that game would have been the adjustments Denver made defensively to stop Baltimore’s passing attack in the second half.

Before the Jones touchdown, the Ravens had netted just 36 yards passing in the second half. That was because the Broncos went to more two-high coverages, which prompted the Ravens to run the ball more. Ray Rice, with 13 hard-fought carries coming mostly against a seven-man box, produced 87 yards in the third and fourth quarters. But the Ravens mustered just seven points on their first five second-half possessions."

What is the DVOA of the Patriots defense ?

 

[RayVNLewis]

Well the Ravens should be scoring 50 a game with that logic.

How does leaving the middle between the LBs and the Safeties open equate to 50 points a game ?

 

[Deus Irae]

What is the DVOA of the Patriots defense ?

The Patriots significantly altered their defense in mid-season, and it's been a much better defense since then. Even so, it comes up better than the Ravens when you use the entire season:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2012 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

And again, as I showed, Flacco's numbers for passes of 1-20 yards are not good.

 

[PatsSox363804]

How does leaving the middle between the LBs and the Safeties open equate to 50 points a game ?

I'm screwing around because you're basically implying that the Ravens offense is unstoppable.

 

[GaryfromTO]

I think a lot of Baltimore's offensive stats in the Denver Divisional playoff can be attributed more to Champ Bailey sucking a hind one as opposed to a suddenly resurgent Raven offense.

In the Giants game, lets face it, the Giants were but a shadow of their former selves this season, and as far as the Colts. yeah they can score, but they can't stop anybody either.

 

[RayVNLewis]

I'm screwing around because you're basically implying that the Ravens offense is unstoppable.

No.. I am saying if the strategy is to take away the run game AND the deep game at the same time.. that leaves the intermediate game open to exploitation..

Unless the implication is that the Patriots defense has no weakness..

 

[jmt57]

Week after week, year after year I hear/read the same thing from fans of other teams:

- Our player X will take away Welker
- Our player Y will take away Hernandez
- Pats have no deep threat
- Pats have no running game
- Our run game > Pats run defense
- Our short passing game > Pats pass defense
- Our deep passing game > Pats pass defense
- Pats have no pass rush

Now Ed ****son is somebody the Patriots should fear, because they have no answer for him?

It's déjà vu all over again. Cherry pick positive stats based with an arbitrary start time, then compare to other stats with a different start/stop time. And above all ignore vital stats that don't fit the agenda, such as turnover differential.

According to what I keep hearing and reading, the Patriots should be 0-16 and that opponent should be 16-0. The Patriots should lose each and every upcoming game by about 59-0.


Could the Ravens win? Absolutely! I could easily spell out several reasons why that could happen.

The better question is which team is most likely to win, and why? If you answer the question objectively, rather than with wishful thinking, then the answer is the Patriots. That doesn't mean the Pats will win; just that it is the more likely outcome.

 

[DaBruinz]

While it's true that Caldwell got too reliant on run-run-pass at the end of the game, that was not the case for most of the game, or the Colts or Giants games.

It was, most certainly, true for both games. You'd know that if you watched them. Hell, the only reason that the Ravens won against the Colts is because the Colts were so insistent on giving them the game despite the Ravens' best efforts to have the Colts win.

As for play calling, a few things are different. One, he's moved Flacco around in the pocket more. Two, we have been more aggressive on first and second down - that regressed in the two OT periods in Denver, but it's clear the offense has some new life with Caldwell as the OC.

Three - most importantly- Bryant McKinnie. If anyone is responsible for Flacco's improved play, that's the guy right there.

You can call it luck all you want, I guess. Whatever makes you feel good.

What is clear to me is that the Baltimore Offensive players didn't care for Cam Cameron and are the ones responsible for running him off. And, as such, they put in the "Player's guy" Caldwell, who is worse as an OC than he was a HC. There was ZERO imagination in his play-calling. It was so telegraphed it was pathetic.

 

[i82much]

Week after week, year after year I hear/read the same thing from fans of other teams:

- Our player X will take away Welker
- Our player Y will take away Hernandez
- Pats have no deep threat
- Pats have no running game
- Our run game > Pats run defense
- Our short passing game > Pats pass defense
- Our deep passing game > Pats pass defense
- Pats have no pass rush

Now Ed ****son is somebody the Patriots should fear, because they have no answer for him?

It's déjà vu all over again. Cherry pick positive stats based with an arbitrary start time, then compare to other stats with a different start/stop time. And above all ignore vital stats that don't fit the agenda, such as turnover differential.

According to what I keep hearing and reading, the Patriots should be 0-16 and that opponent should be 16-0. The Patriots should lose each and every upcoming game by about 59-0.


Could the Ravens win? Absolutely! I could easily spell out several reasons why that could happen.

The better question is which team is most likely to win, and why? If you answer the question objectively, rather than with wishful thinking, then the answer is the Patriots. That doesn't mean the Pats will win; just that it is the more likely outcome.

You've got people on this forum inferring that Moore's mistake was the Ravens being lucky but the Bronco's two special teams TD's were legit. Cherry picking works both ways. The best evidence for how this game is going to play out isn't in any passing, defense, rushing, special teams statistics, it's not in any of that jazz. The best evidence about how this game will play out is recent meetings between the teams. That's it. The rest of it is ballwashing hogwash - on both sides.

 

[Deus Irae]

You've got people on this forum inferring that Moore's mistake was the Ravens being lucky but the Bronco's two special teams TD's were legit. Cherry picking works both ways. The best evidence for how this game is going to play out isn't in any passing, defense, rushing, special teams statistics, it's not in any of that jazz. The best evidence about how this game will play out is recent meetings between the teams. That's it. The rest of it is ballwashing hogwash - on both sides.

Given all the personnel changes and the different play levels in the remaining players what's happened in earlier games is more relevant than how the teams have played all year long and lately, how, exactly?

 

[mvrabel50]

You've got people on this forum inferring that Moore's mistake was the Ravens being lucky but the Bronco's two special teams TD's were legit. Cherry picking works both ways. The best evidence for how this game is going to play out isn't in any passing, defense, rushing, special teams statistics, it's not in any of that jazz. The best evidence about how this game will play out is recent meetings between the teams. That's it. The rest of it is ballwashing hogwash - on both sides.

This makes no sense