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The one pitfall of being the #1 seed

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Fahrenhype, Dec 27, 2010.

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  1. Fahrenhype

    Fahrenhype Rookie

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    Employing the use of the online interwebs, I have confirmed a suspicion I had earlier in the day: The Patriots may be hosting the tougher opponent during the divisional round, despite being the first seed. Two issues:

    01. Four of the best teams in the conference were in two divisions - East and North. Yeah, we gotta see if the Jets are still deserving of this distinction (the only thing keeping them in the picture was the victory over the Steelers) but either way you're getting teams that were at one point looking like division winners as wild card contenders. This doesn't impact the Pats immediately since they have the bye, but...

    02. The Chiefs seem to be a total wrench in the prognostication machinery (sounded better than calling them the "wild card"). They have only played ONE of the other AFC playoff teams this year in a loss to the Colts. The NFC division they played isn't going to a field a + .500 team in the playoffs. I have no idea how anyone predicts how they fare in the wild card round. It would be easy to write off their lack of a tough schedule but the Cardinals made it to the superbowl two years ago.

    The way I see it, the Chiefs could be better than people are giving them credit for, but not quite as good as a team they are seeded higher than like the Ravens. The Steelers could be sitting pretty with the #2 seed, not having to play Baltimore in the divisional round. There is no way the Patriots play the Chiefs in the divisional round, so they could be looking at either Indy or Baltimore. Despite recent performances, it is hard to even consider the Jets as a lesser team since they played a considerably tougher schedule and have the same number of wins right now. The plus side there is a recent matchup indicates the Pats are simply the better team right now, even with the expectation of a playoff game being closer. Wild card weekend is going to be very, very interesting.
  2. zoffle

    zoffle Rookie

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    I think any of the teams that are going to make the playoffs will be tough (except if Jacksonville manage to make it). I'd rather have home field advantage than having to travel any where to play, regardless of who they are playing.
  3. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There is no problem with being the number 1 seed. It is the best outcome a team can hope for after the regular season.
  4. pherein

    pherein Rookie

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    I think the the thing the Patriots should work most toward, if I many be so bold, is the fact that #1 #2 seeds have a very hard time winning Super Bowls, especially in the AFC.

    Release » Top Seeds

    We are well aware of this, but did not see a reason to bring it up, as much doubt was already pretty prevalent last year. This made us very nervous.

    Im not sure how to handle it, but it seems the #1 #2 seed do not have a very good history of making or winning the show. Our hope is that you prevail.
  5. Fahrenhype

    Fahrenhype Rookie

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    Didn't say there was a problem, just a potential wrinkle in terms of the #1 seed supposedly getting the "lesser" of the wild card round winners. I'd rather have home field throughout particularly since they only need one win to get into the conference championship game. It's weird that the third best team in the conference is probably going to be the fifth seed.
  6. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, the Colts deserve a large share of the blame for that. . . . :D
  7. pherein

    pherein Rookie

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    :) yes they certainly helped. I don't believe 22 will ever be allowed on a colts jersey for some time.

    But the trend did worry us greatly, and it bothers us with your team. BB is exceptional, so maybe nothing. It is one reason we dont care if the Falcons get #1 seed, no reason to temp fate 2x.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
  8. sbpatfan

    sbpatfan Banned

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    If history means anything both the number one seeded Patriot teams from that list made the Superbowl. Maybe that's a good sign.
  9. ArchAngel007

    ArchAngel007 Rookie

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    Patriots only have a lone loss at home in the playoffs if I'm not mistaken(correct me if I'm wrong) and that was on a year Brady was of his knee surgery and our defense was declining. Pats at home are nearly unbeatable its possible but its not an easy thing to do I'm comfortable with any team that comes to Foxboro.
  10. Omega Supreme

    Omega Supreme Rookie

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    The Pats were either the #1 or #2 seed in the AFC in all three of their Super Bowl victory seasons. I don't think that stat really applies to them.
  11. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    only thing i dont like is that chiefs aside, weve already faced every other AFC playoff team, and it would be difficult to sweep ANY playoff team in a season

    but thats what the patriots are gonna have to do if they want to get out of NE and get to dallas

    it wont be easy, but this team could do it, and it wouldnt matter which opponents its faced, though i think an easier match up for us would be a team with a better defense than offense
  12. pherein

    pherein Rookie

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    Forgive me if mistaken sbpatfan, but the Patriots won 1 super Bowl as a top seed and that was 2003. Not that it would be unusual for BB to change history and do it again, we certainly hope he does. by no means am I trying to cast a shadow on your accomplishments. Im sure if we could, but could not, we would have done the same. I believe my point is that we are worried, because success is not favored by the stats when top seed, tho most might think it is.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
  13. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm not concerned with any wrinkle at any point during the playoffs as the #1 seed. You have home field advantage. The rest is over to the Gillette crowd and the Patriots.
  14. sbpatfan

    sbpatfan Banned

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    Yeah, you're right. I was just glancing through the thread. For some reason I thought people were saying the #1/#2 seeds had trouble making the Superbowl, but I see you guys are talking about winning it.
  15. pherein

    pherein Rookie

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    We would be exceptionally happy if our wildcard team met you in the Super Bowl :) But , yes , as you smartly showed its about you winning. For some reason theres not a high % for top seeds winning the show. I was just posting this so it would be noticed, and become a viable concern.

    My team , on the other hand, has a lot more to prove than old figures and trends that might not matter, and is in no position to preach.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
  16. TheBostonStraggler

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    Under BB, the Patriots have been the #1 or #2 seed 5 times (including this year). Their record in the past 4 years as the #1 or #2 seed? They are 1 missed in the grasp :D call from a perfect 12-0 record. Conversely, they have not made the SB the other 3 times they were in the playoffs without a bye (exits in the WC, division, conference games).

    Letting the injuries heal/rest up, extra time for BB to game plan, all games at home and a 10 year history that says we go to, and likely win, the SB as the #1 or #2.....this is precisely where the Patriots want to be without a tangible pitfall associated with it.
  17. JoeShmoe

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    Anyone but Manning for me please

    Still the best QB we'll face (we have the other one) with the ability to shred our secondary
  18. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 Rookie

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    there is no downfall to haveing the #1 seed you get a week off you play one less game and you got home field through out... i dont see a downfall it's the playoffs your going to face a Good team evey week at lest you get them at home
  19. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And people wonder why Bill says stats are for losers...;)
  20. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan Rookie

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    Pat's were the #1 or #2 seed in their last 5 superbowls. We have better success going in as a high seed....
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
  21. Bostonian1962

    Bostonian1962 Rookie

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    I LOVE when they play a team a second or third time, because BB is a master of using the first game to help game plan in the second or third (in the case of the Jets).
  22. robertweathers

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    Very true. Although it didn't matter so much in the playoffs vs BAL in the last year.
  23. Bostonian1962

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    I doubt any other #1 seed had this strength of schedule in the regular season, that the Patriots had. They blew out Pittsburgh (the number 2 seed currently) @ Pittsburgh. They blew out the current 2 seed in the NFC @ Chicago. They also played the Jets twice, GB, Indy, and Baltimore.

    The team had 6 players out injured this week, as well, and I assume all will be back in three weeks for the playoffs. They also get their second leading tackler back for the playoffs (Spikes - at least he was at the time he got suspended).

    There are no week sisters that you check off the automatic win (unless Jacksonville makes it IMHO), but I love the position our boys are in.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2010
  24. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That game was an abbheration born of faulty roster construction. Bill has retooled this team and eliminated some glaring faults... This team is younger and faster and more athletic as well as both physically and mentally tougher than those he fielded in the last couple of seasons... They also have better leadership than any teams since the glory days.
  25. robertweathers

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    Couldn't agree more. No question.
  26. TruthSeeker

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    I have long believed that the best reward for the highest seeding is the right to choose your (eligible) opponent instead of just taking whatever opponent a formula gives you. Some competitions structure it this way and I wish that all sports would. It gives the maximum benefit for playing the best and means that it is never advantageous to intentionally lose a game.
  27. moosekill

    moosekill Rookie

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    Plus their offense was based on two options. Throw it deep to Moss, or throw it short to Welker. Welker had hugh...amazing stats last year, and when they lost him, on the last regular season game of the year, Brady lost his short threat.

    They might have been able to overcome it against some teams, but when they hit a team like Baltimore, and got behind early, it was all she wrote.
  28. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan Rookie

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    yes, but the Raven's are an older team this year. Many are talking, this could be their last year to have a good shot, with their defense getting older and changing. Conversely, the Pat's are a much younger team this year, playing much better than they were in the 1st quarter of the year.
  29. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    You never know how things are going to work out. Maybe the Jets are the 6 seed, Ravens 5, and both win. We'd be getting the Jets instead of the Ravens, which IMO is better than what the 2 seed would get.

    Say we handle the Jets the way we did a few weeks ago and then we'll be getting a very beat up team since Balti-Pitt is usually a bloodbath. Hard to think of that scenario as significantly worse than anything else we could have gotten this year.
  30. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We also ruined a few Pittsburgh #1 teams as well :singing:

    But it doesn't surprise me. No offense to the NFC, but over the past 10 years, you could make the case that 3 or 4 of the top 5 teams resided in the AFC. NE, Indy, and Pittsburgh alone have had an incredibly successful run this decade, consistently making the play-offs and competing against each other. So it stands to reason that the road through the AFC is a lot tougher regardless of seeding.

    Philly had a similar run in the NFC, but they weren't really dominant in the same way. I can see Payton doing the same now in New Orleans, but he's just started.

    So the #1 seed doesn't guarantee much, it's not essential, especially in the AFC, but I'd rather have it if possible.
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