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The Importance To Belichick of QB2


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Here are all of the QBs in the last 20 years to complete less than 48% of their passes in ANY season of their career, and that seasons stats (edit: with at least 200 pass attmepts)
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No one on this list every improved, so your comment about all of the QBs that improved is the equivalent of saying Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, so there is evidence 6th round picks become HOFers.

Nice find Andy Johnson. The one active player with 48.2% in his first year and nice improvement over time would be Eli Manning (see below).
Eli482.jpg~original
 
Nice find Andy Johnson. The one active player with 48.2% in his first year and nice improvement over time would be a quarterback with a horseshoe up his #@%@#%

Fixed that for you. :bricks: :mad:
 
I have to say I enjoy Jokers posts, even though I don't agree with all he writes. I was impressed with his post on genocides, etc. I think I actually learned something. As far as Tebow goes all anyone wants is for him to become a great QB- He's never had the same coaches more than 1 year at a time-If he develops as I think he can, watch out- Even Joker will be pleased to have him on his beloved Patriots.
 
I don't think I'm the person you intended to quote. I didn't post any QB's stats. I'm not a intelligent and knowledgeable football fan like you, Andy and others.. I'm just a simple football fan enjoying the learning experience of being a new member of this forum :)

Sorry, I should have been more clear. The person you quoted and agreed with is someone I have on ignore, so I don't see his posts unless someone else quotes it. You quoted him talking about other QBs, so I saw that. He got that wrong, and I was just pointing it out, since I'd seen it in the re-post and I knew some of the anti-Tebow people would try pointing to it as some 'evidence', when it actually showed that improvement of comp% was happening.
 
Sorry, I should have been more clear. The person you quoted and agreed with is someone I have on ignore, so I don't see his posts unless someone else quotes it. You quoted him talking about other QBs, so I saw that. He got that wrong, and I was just pointing it out, since I'd seen it in the re-post and I knew some of the anti-Tebow people would try pointing to it as some 'evidence', when it actually showed that improvement of comp% was happening.

Oh ok I was not aware. But thanks for pointing this out. You're an asset to the board. I have really enjoyed all of the football intellect I've seen on here. It's unlike any other forum I've ever been on.
 
LOL, the QB with more INTs to TDs is better than Tebow.

Yup ...and that doesn't say much for Tim as a QB now does it.


Joe Montana: "Mark Sanchez is better than Tim Tebow and that's it."

I think I'll trust the word of a guy who is arguably the GOAT at his position. I think he ought to know what he's talking about.

Sanchez led his team to 4 road playoff wins, including one over Manning and one over Brady. 2 AFC Championship appearances. What has TT done?

I would even argue Sanchez's development has been royally screwed by the Jets in a lot of ways.




Look at Tom Brady's first 14 starts.
Look at Peyton Manning's 14 starts.
Look at Eli Manning's first 14 starts.
Look at Andrew Luck's first 14 starts.
Etc.

Brady went from a game manager, 86 qbr and 189 passing yards a game, to the best QB in the league, 300 yards a game and 100+qbr.


For every QB who starts their career without a lot of statistical success... hardly any of them turn into a future HOFer like Manning or Brady. THere's a good reason for that.

The point made, a lot of QBs improve immensely from their first years. Now, what if Tebow improved to a 200ypg, 85qbr, 55% comp pct., 50 ypg rushing QB? IMO with his intangibles you would have an above average starting QB.

Yes you would. The problem with that assertion however is there's not really any concrete reason at this point in time to think such an improvement is coming.... and wishful thinking isn't a "concrete reason".

Tebow never got a chance to improve himself on a solid first year for a first year QB.

For a good reason. There's a good reason why Elway wanted to go in a different direction. And please don't even think of shoveling the "Elway hated Tebow" excrement on me.

If you want recent proof of progression, check Daltons first to second year stats.

See above.

Not everyone can be Wilson and RGIII their rookie year. I hope he gets a 2nd chance to start someday on another team.

It's a very steep uphill climb.
..........
 
Sorry, I should have been more clear. The person you quoted and agreed with is someone I pretend tohave on ignore, so Ican say I don't see his posts unless someone else quotes it. You quoted him talking about other QBs, so I saw that. He got that wrong, and I was just pointing it out, since I'd seen it in the re-post and I knew some of the anti-Tebow people would try pointing to it as some 'evidence', when it actually showed that improvement of comp% was happening.

Fixed it for you.
No one 'got it wrong' but you.
 
Nice find Andy Johnson. The one active player with 48.2% in his first year and nice improvement over time would be Eli Manning (see below).
Eli482.jpg~original

Sure you can find examples of pretty much anything, but there are hundreds of examples of bad staying bad for every one of bad turning good.
 
..........


Yes you would. The problem with that assertion however is there's not really any concrete reason at this point in time to think such an improvement is coming.... and wishful thinking isn't a "concrete reason".


Except for the generally understood notion that QBs often improve. This is one of the reasons why most teams usually don't evaluate and throw away QBs after just having 16 starts under their belt.

Think it was a writer at Smartfootball or ColdHardFootball facts who pointed out that Peyton Manning wasn't Peyton Manning after only 14 starts to his career.

I'd add that the same can be said about most other future HoF QBs. You are absolutely right, you just don't know. There have been plenty of QBs who had better first year stats overall than either of the Manning brothers, or Brady, or Rodgers, and those guys have gone on to be busts and out of the league.

Here's a quick stat stunner for you.

Stats from 2 QBs through their first 16 starts.


QB1:
248 of 494, 50.20 comp %, 3079 yds, 21 tds, 18 int's, 67.83 QB Rating.

QB2:
261 of 454, 57.49 comp %, 2866 yds, 18 tds, 13 int's, 78.88 QB Rating.


QB2 had a comp% that was 7 pts higher, had a better TD to INT ratio, and had a QB Rating 11 pts higher. Clearly the better QB according to the metrics.

QB2 was Tim Couch, a guy most everyone considers to have been a bust.
QB1 is Eli Manning, 2 time SB MVP
 
Except for the generally understood notion that QBs often improve. This is one of the reasons why most teams usually don't evaluate and throw away QBs after just having 16 starts under their belt.

Think it was a writer at Smartfootball or ColdHardFootball facts who pointed out that Peyton Manning wasn't Peyton Manning after only 14 starts to his career.

I'd add that the same can be said about most other future HoF QBs. You are absolutely right, you just don't know. There have been plenty of QBs who had better first year stats overall than either of the Manning brothers, or Brady, or Rodgers, and those guys have gone on to be busts and out of the league.

Here's a quick stat stunner for you.

Stats from 2 QBs through their first 16 starts.


QB1:
248 of 494, 50.20 comp %, 3079 yds, 21 tds, 18 int's, 67.83 QB Rating.

QB2:
261 of 454, 57.49 comp %, 2866 yds, 18 tds, 13 int's, 78.88 QB Rating.


QB2 had a comp% that was 7 pts higher, had a better TD to INT ratio, and had a QB Rating 11 pts higher. Clearly the better QB according to the metrics.

QB2 was Tim Couch, a guy most everyone considers to have been a bust.
QB1 is Eli Manning, 2 time SB MVP

QBs do often improve but in TT's case, it goes beyond numbers. Right now there are fundamental flaws in his game that will make it more difficult to get better than another QB who doesn't have those flaws. Hence, Fox designing an offense for Tebow that tried to mask those flaws, even though that offense didn't have that long of a shelf life.
 
QBs do often improve but in TT's case, it goes beyond numbers. Right now there are fundamental flaws in his game that will make it more difficult to get better than another QB who doesn't have those flaws. Hence, Fox designing an offense for Tebow that tried to mask those flaws, even though that offense didn't have that long of a shelf life.

Let's just say that I have a not so high opinion of Fox and/or Mike McCoy.

As for Tebow, yeah, he does have flaws right now and it's difficult to say if he can overcome them, though of course, I'm confidant that he will :)


Here's the thing though. Just try to picture a Tim Tebow who has good mechanics, can hit NFL windows, can still run over LBs and DBs, still has all his other intangibles, and can hit 65% of his passes.

Now, picture all of the above and throw in being developed by McDaniels and learning from Brady.
 
Let's just say that I have a not so high opinion of Fox and/or Mike McCoy.QUOTE]

Why Fox? Granted he is more a defensive minded coach but he does have a good NFL coaching resume. He seemed to have success with Jake Delhomme who was an unknown.
 
Let's just say that I have a not so high opinion of Fox and/or Mike McCoy.
And I think the opposite about McCoy, considering the success that he managed to have with Tebow.
 
Let's just say that I have a not so high opinion of Fox and/or Mike McCoy.QUOTE]

Why Fox? Granted he is more a defensive minded coach but he does have a good NFL coaching resume. He seemed to have success with Jake Delhomme who was an unknown.

A good NFL coaching resume` ?

Here's his record at Carolina.

Year W L Win %
2002 7 9 43.8
2003 11 5 68.8
2004 7 9 43.8
2005 11 5 68.8
2006 8 8 50
2007 7 9 43.8
2008 12 4 75
2009 8 8 50
2010 2 14 12.5

Total 73 71 50.69


Maybe I'm just overly harsh, but I don't consider hovering around 50% winning percentage over 9 years to be a "good" headcoach. In 9 seasons, he had 4 where his team was under .500, 2 were @ .500, leaving a total of 3 winning seasons out of the 9. Art Shell and Brad Childress both have better career winning percentages.

His overall stats are skewed by the fact that he stood on the sidelines while PFM went out and went 13-3 last year. PFM made Jim Caldwell look like a HoF coach.
 
And I think the opposite about McCoy, considering the success that he managed to have with Tebow.

I go back and forth trying to decide whether I should cut McCoy some slack, but only because he was the OC and Fox was the coach. Was McCoy running/calling what he wanted ? Or was he running/calling what Fox wanted ?

As for the success he had with Tebow, I give him mad props for the Pittsburg game. Great game plan and good play calling. Well, at least in the 2nd quarter and 1 play in overtime. Would have to watch the game again, but it looked like they got conservative in the 2nd half once they had a nice lead.

I keep hearing about how McCoy totally reinvented the offense to play to Tebow's strengths / abilities during the bye week, but I think that bit is over played. They didn't rewrite or reinvent the playbook. They added a handful of option plays to the playbook they already had. Contrary to popular belief, Tebow spent an awful lot of time under center operating a "conventional" NFL offense for the most part. They did run some option, and in some games, much heavier than others. But it's not like they pulled out Tebow's old playbook at Florida and ran that a majority of the time.

Then you have the issue of Denver's offense being schizophrenic. One can question how much of a part Tebow had to play in this, but here's my take. If you look at the offense and playcalling through the first 3 quarters of most games, it pretty much looks the same. Very conservative with a heavy emphasis on running the ball. When they did pass, it was from tight formations.

Then, when they found themselves behind in the 4th quarter, everything changed. They went to spread formations, 3, 4 or 5 WRs, with Tebow in the gun. Suddenly, the offense got productive. Someone might chime in here and claim that it was because teams switched to soft, prevent defenses. That isn't the case. In the Chicago game, they were in Tampa2 in the 4th quarter, which has been Lovey's base defense for some time. They may have played back a bit at first, but they tightened it up and Tebow still drove through them.

In the Jet's game, Rex and Pettine weren't playing prevent on that final drive. Denver had 4 or 5 receivers lined up on most plays, and the Jets were forced to choose whether to go with a "heavy" package of LBs to stop the run, or to opt for faster nickel/dime package to defend the pass.

At some point, it begs the following question: IF your QB and offense flounders for 3 quarters under the "normal" game plan and play calling, and IF week after week after week, the QB and offense is much more productive when you switch to a Spread offense out of the Shotgun, then, why not start games out like that and go all 4 quarters that way ?

Ironically enough, even after they brought in PFM, it looks like the same kind of trend went on for the first handful of games. That is, at least according to Chris Brown over at SmartFootball and Grantland.

How a return to the simplicity of Peyton Manning's Indy offense has ignited the Denver Broncos - Grantland


When Peyton Manning chose the Broncos, part of the decision came from him actually wanting to learn their schemes. Denver offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has a well-deserved reputation for flexibility, a necessary trait given that in the last three years his quarterbacks have been Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, and Peyton Manning. Early this season, however, the team's offense was undergoing something of an identity crisis, much of it understandable. Manning was still recovering from a neck injury that sidelined him for an entire season, and his supporting cast was both all new and largely unproven. The question was whether McCoy would adopt more of Manning's old playbook. There were already discernible pieces, but like an undergraduate's attempt to "update" Macbeth, something had been lost in translation.

Most notably, the offense teemed with new formations — often with two running backs in the backfield, something Manning rarely did in Indianapolis — and new plays, without much of a hint of the up-tempo no-huddle approach Manning had used to such great effect with the Colts.

It was during the second half of those early season games, with the Broncos often trailing and with the pressure on, that Manning and the offense seemed to come alive. In their first five games of the season, during which they went 2-3, the Broncos scored just under 70 percent of their points in the second half. It was during these stretches of urgency that, by necessity, Denver shed what was non-essential and went with what worked — a combination of what its players could do effectively and what Peyton Manning was comfortable with. Following their third loss of the season, the Broncos offense became what it likely should have been from day 1: as close to the Manning-Moore offense as possible.1


So we have McCoy designing his offense (incorporating some things that Peyton is used to) and McCoy calling "his" game plan, then throwing it away in the 2nd half of games and going with Manning's playbook. Eventually, basically tossing McCoy's carefully crafted offense out and running Tom Moore's (and Peyton's) Colt's offense.

I kind of see a pattern there. :)
 
This hate on the coaches is silly. The coaches ran what Tebow allowed them to run. They had to change the entire offense in the middle of the season to fit what Tebow could do. To think that these guys were somehow limiting what Tebow could do rather than vice versa is asinine.

They went from a pro offense to a ball control option style offense in order to fit the skill set of the QB they had, and it mostly worked. They ran the ball, limited turnovers and played good defense.
 
If the Bronco's played wide open for 4 quarters, like they did to come back and win games, they would have turned the ball over much more often and lost more games.

They limited their windows for mistakes by only taking risks when they absolutely had to and it worked......somewhat, until they got blown the faulk out by the Patriots and the worst pass defense I had ever seen.
 
This hate on the coaches is silly. The coaches ran what Tebow allowed them to run. They had to change the entire offense in the middle of the season to fit what Tebow could do. To think that these guys were somehow limiting what Tebow could do rather than vice versa is asinine.

That's one interpretation.

They went from a pro offense to a ball control option style offense in order to fit the skill set of the QB they had, and it mostly worked. They ran the ball, limited turnovers and played good defense.

I'm trying to be careful here, wanting to avoid turning this into a "tebow specific" discussion. I made a comment about Fox and McCoy and responded to a couple of replies about that comment.

WRT your interpretation, look to the Broncos last 3 games of 2010. A certain rookie QB came off the bench, ran the Broncos "regular offense" installed by McDaniels and he managed to post an 82.1 QB Rating for those 3 games year, passing for 300+ in one of those games.

Also, bringing the discussion back to McCoy, we see the same kind of thing once Peyton Manning came to the Broncos. Conservative game plan in the first half, i.e. silly play calling. Followed up with an opening up of the offense in the 2nd half to actually put points on the board.

Again, don't know whether that was all on McCoy, or if he was running what Fox wanted. Given Fox's overly conservative nature, the latter might be the case.
 
Let's just say that I have a not so high opinion of Fox and/or Mike McCoy.

As for Tebow, yeah, he does have flaws right now and it's difficult to say if he can overcome them, though of course, I'm confidant that he will :)


Here's the thing though. Just try to picture a Tim Tebow who has good mechanics, can hit NFL windows, can still run over LBs and DBs, still has all his other intangibles, and can hit 65% of his passes.

Now, picture all of the above and throw in being developed by McDaniels and learning from Brady.

Skeptical, but hopefully you are right.
 
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