There certainly is an awful lot of emotion around Givens vs Caldwell comparisons, although I note from the recent poll that 70% of us think Reche Caldwell will definitely start again next year:
http://208.109.107.176/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=46461
But there's obviously a vocal minority that continues to despise the guy.
Football Outsiders stats are always interesting. Like all stats they have the virtue of objectivity, and unlike most they attempt to assess performance on a per play basis adjusted for the difficulty of the opponent.
And for those who think I'm cherrypicking stats, you're more than welcome to adduce your own.
So what do Football Outsiders stats they say right now about Caldwell now (we'll compare to Givens later)?
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php
He is the 34th best receiver in the league in point contribution above replacement (average) at 13.0 DPAR, and 32nd best in defense adjusted average above replacement per play at 8.5%.
This fits what I think most of us observe, i.e. that Caldwell is a terrible #1 receiver, a decent #2, and an excellent #3 by league standards.
Unfortunately, he's our #1, and gets vilified for obviously not being a replacement for Branch..
I'm not going to reprise the debate about whether Caldwell would be better or worse if Branch or Givens were still here, except to say that the only other WR we have with over 50 passes attempted is Troy Brown, who is the 46th ranked receiver with a DVOA of -1.5%, i.e. below average. Again, that seems about right.
None of the rest of our receivers had 50 or more attempts so far, but amusingly, Chad Jackson has a DVOA of 33.3% on 16 attempts. If by some miracle he held that performance for 34 more attempts, he'd be second in the league behind Reggie Wayne's 35.4%! Doug Gabriel was -1.8%, BTW.
Shockingly, Deion Branch is having a significantly worse year than Caldwell, even worse than Brown, worse than Gabriel, at a 51st ranked DVOA of -5.1%. Imagine the uproar if Belioli had given a 1st rounder for Caldwell, yet Seattle's getting far worse performance out of Branch.
Givens has of course been hurt this year, and only 20 passes were thrown his way, with a truly awful DVOA of -32.0%.
To get back to the point of this thread, let's look last Givens last year: he was the 35th ranked receiver with a DVOA of 5.5%, i.e. a little worse than Caldwell this year. Again, despite the fury of his support on this thread, I think this aligns well with what 70% of us see and think, that Givens was an OK #2 receiver last year and Caldwell is a more than adequate replacement.
To be fair, Givens had an extraordinary year in 2003, with a 3rd ranked DVOA of 55.9%, far better than even Branch has ever had. Memories of that extraordinary year probably motivate his fervent supporters here. But he's regressed since, with a 31st ranked 16.6% DVOA in 2004 and was plain mediocre last year.
Branch last year was the 13th ranked receiver with a DVOA of 19.0%, and significantly produced
27.5 points above average over the season. Add those 27.5pts to this years offense and we're likely 12-2 or even 13-1 right now, and thinking 4th ring.
But there's still a puzzle here, because Branch isn't producing in Seattle, Givens looked terrible, and Caldwell is having a career year. We can attribute that to the Brady effect, as Brady was able to elevate Branch, Givens, Caldwell, and Patten vs their performance elsewhere. But Brady can't work his magic with every receiver, and the stats say we have this year in totality a terrible WR group, with Caldwell being the only above average receiver.
I have to wonder if Brady is having a down year for some reason other than the switch in wide receivers. In 2005 DPAR says Brady contributed 104pts above average; this year he's so far only contributed 59pts. His DVOA was 4th ranked at 30.9%, and this year he's 10th ranked at 15.8%. That fall off aligns with his failure to win enough votes (other than from fans) to make the pro-bowl this year.
There's a chicken and egg problem here, and it's easy to blame his loss of receivers, but last years receivers were nothing special and those same receivers are terrible with other teams. I'm beginning to suspect that while the downgrade of his receivers is real, Brady's performance has taken a disproportionate drop. Maybe it's the disruption of the change, maybe he really is injured, maybe he's just having an off year, but I think there may be a Brady factor as well this year.
My guess and hope is that it's the disruption; it may be as simple as bad luck due to the extraordinary number of turnovers this year. I'd like to believe Brady will step up his game and again carry the offense despite not having great receivers. But I wouldn't bet on it. Our best hope is with our defense and our extraordinary special teams -- and that on offense the turnovers regress to the mean, Watson, Maroney, and O'C return, Graham stays healthy, and Dillon steps up his game in the playoffs.
