The cap IS worrisome over the next few years

[Miguel]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/peter_king/12/09/week14/
4.html

25.New England 41 $10.93 million
26.St. Louis 45 $9.61 million
27.Seattle 44 $9.55 million
28.Indianapolis 48 $8.49 million

Gee, the Colts had $2.5 million less in cap space than the Pats. Signing 7 more players who have a minimum salary of $370,000 would do that.

$370,000 * 7 = $2,590,000.

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=92536&page=3
Update (9/25/07) -- Just more info for all 32 teams. The 2007 cap room hasn't changed much since what I posted Friday, but I've added each team's cap situations for 2008. Keep in mind that some teams' 2008 cap info includes some contracts that will void after this season.



2007 CAP ROOM

Jacksonville $17.249 million
Tampa Bay $16.717 million
Indianapolis $14.041 million
Kansas City $13.096 million
Dallas $12.719 million
Green Bay $12.112 million
Buffalo $11.873 million
Seattle $10.787 million
Tennessee $9.501 million
New Orleans $9.330 million
Oakland $9.226 million
Carolina $9.087 million
N.Y. Jets $8.525 million
Philadelphia $8.374 million
Miami $8.011 million
Cleveland $7.108 million
San Francisco $6.070 million
New England $5.796 million

It appears from above that the Colts will be able to push more 2007 cap space into 2008 than will the Pats.

If the Colts and the Pats are under the 2008 cap by about the same amount when one considers the number of players signed and the Colts are able to push more 2007 cap space into 2008, how are the Colts in more cap trouble than the Patriots??? Please note that the Colts do not use incentives in their contracts as much as the Patriots do so it is likely that their 2008 adjusted cap will be higher than the Patriots' adjusted cap. Example - Moss earn $2 million in NTLBE incentives. I doubt that the Colts have anyone who did the same.

The Colts are in more cap trouble than the Patriots = BLAH, BLAH, BLAH

 

[PatsFanInVa]

The Colts draft very, very well. They also throw big money at successful picks... but how many high profile free agents do they pick up?

If they "home-grow" most of their stars, you have to figure that that part of their model makes for cap-friendly operation. I personally think the Freeney deal was just goofy, and thought so before he got injured this year. Sure, Peyton got taken care of, haven't looked lately at some of the other "star" numbers over there, but there are a few stars, and a lot of guys at "minimum wage."

I have to go back and plot the salary cap scatters again sometime. It used to be you could overlay the Pats' salaries onto the Colts' on a scatter graph, and see clear differences in the curves they describe. Over the last 7 years they've converged, as Indy pays draftees and we pay for free agents.

I use to think there were these hard and fast philosophies involved but what I thought was a "philosophy" for the Pats was more like the playing-out of a principle, namely, evaluate value to the team when discussing any deal. Sometimes that means that you make the deal and it's a bargain almost whatever you pay. Sometimes that means you turn away from what seems like a very reasonable deal, by market rates. And that's it. Beyond that, I think the depth approach could be called a "philosophy," which has kept our chart from being a total hockey stick.

For our approach to be good, it is not necessary for Indy's approach to suck.

PFnV

 

[rhodeislandpatsfan]

The cap is only worrisome if:
A: BB and Pioli decide to leave
B: Tom Brady gets hurt and retires

The Patriots w/ BB and Pioli fully understand the value of each position have been successful because they are not afraid to say good-bye to players who have exceeded their value without regard to fan sentiment. Because they keep winning everyone drinks the Kool-Aid stays w/the program knowing that their sacrafices will be rewarded.
The most important piece to BB puzzle however is Brady. He delivers time and time again and it seemingly is never enough for him. W/out him the pats would be over-paying flashes in the pan to regain this incredible dynasty. That's were most teams get in cap trouble. For me I will trust BB, Pioli and Brady until they let us down and then we could discard them just the way they taught us!

 

[JoeSixPat]

The cap IS worrisome over the next few years.

Hi there! JSP's Ghost of Christmas Past here reporting circa 2004.

I just wanted to tell you all that we in 2004 share your concerns as its clear to us this team will NOT be able to field a competitive team in 2007.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Blah, Blah, Blah.

2004 -The Colts are going to be in cap hell and Miguel is in denial about it.
2005 -The Colts are going to be in cap hell and Miguel is in denial about it.
2006 -The Colts are going to be in cap hell and Miguel is in denial about it.
2007 -The Colts are going to be in cap hell and Miguel is in denial about it.
2008 -The Colts are going to be in cap hell and Miguel is in denial about it.

You must have had a cranky Christmas since you're quoting me out of context and apparently had trouble comprehending what I was saying...

I don't think the Colts are in any immediate cap trouble, in part because they have survived their cut back season as division winners and playoff contenders even as it was complicated by substantial injuries and an unexpected retirement - as we did in 2005.

The Colts have had some big ticket items go belly up on them this season, and that trend could continue given the age of those players, the injuries they sustained or are battling, and the positions they play. They filled out their roster turnover this season with 14 players who had never seen a snap at this level. I don't think that was something they were thrilled to be doing. To their credit they remained competitive throughout. A lot of that IMO is the value of Dungy as a quiet teacher/motivator and of course the presence of Manning (who still doesn't like it but has learned to adapt ala Tom to the hand he is dealt). The same could be said for us vis a vis BB. Only I believe that if Tony wasn't just whining a couple of years back because things weren't working out ring wise, he could retire very shortly. And when he goes things in Indy could get a little dicey. Same could happen if Bill left here, but everything he's said would indicate he has no intention of leaving any time soon.

But my post primarily was intended to counter Fencer's contention that trouble is inevitable. If I've learned nothing from listening to you and watching Pioli and Polian maneuver under a cap the last several seasons it's that cap hell is not inevitable unless you make really stupid decisions and particularly if you do that across the board. Each has made a clunker or two and still managed to survive. Neither has succombed to making poor contract decisions or talent evaluations across the board - they don't overpay for marginal talent. Pioli and BB have had a little more luck getting discounts on their top tier talent, and have used that to acquire or retain more of their mid level talent. Polian is a bit more of a risk taker when it comes to future cap planning - but CBA and TV deals getting done rewarded that risk with a ring in 2006. And the odds are the same scenario will unfold in 2012 when some each of their credit card purchases will finally be coming due.

So I think as long as Manning/Dungy/Polian or Brady/Belichick/Pioli remain in tact neither of these teams will be in trouble except in they eyes of those who believe their team should win it all every season as opposed to the realistic goal of remaining in the hunt as a strong contended every season. My gut tells me we will win more rings (as we already have) because I believe our model is better suitedto prevail against the best of the rest come January, but absent us Polian's model would likely have been the next most successful of the decade provided Dungy doesn't decide to hang 'em up in the next season or two.

 

[Miguel]

You must have had a cranky Christmas since you're quoting me out of context

Had a great Christmas, thank you very much.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

In this salary cap era I just hope that the Pats field a team that is capable of winning a Super Bowl every year, not that they actually win a Super Bowl every year.

Thats also pretty much the way that Robert Kraft describes his objective for the Patriots: to field a team that is competitive for the Playoffs every year; not necessarily to win every year, but to be in there every year.

As fans, given the randomness of injuries and weather and bounces (remember when Brady fumbled towards the end of the SD playoff game last year and the ball landed at the feet of one of his linemen?) and refs' calls, what more could we ever hope for?

 

[Fencer]

will NOT be able to field a competitive team

Either:

A. You haven't read the thread
B. You like to exaggerate other people's opinions, because you're too lame to argue with them as actually stated
C. Both of the above

 

[ShrewBeer]

i dont know why anyone is actually worried. i can see a little bit of concern because you dont know what bb and pioli's plan is, but worried?
after these seven years of greatness, yeah- sometimes i get a little concerned because i dont know something (bastards dont tell us anything). but actually worried that something is gonna suck? nope, not me

 

[NEPatriot]

Pats and Redsox managers must attend the same business school together because the way they pay their players is pretty much the same way.

their players receive salaries and bonus for their performance. If you are with undefeated pats for 4 SB , your salary will be higher and better if you join another team because of what you did during Pats golden season.

 

[Gon_Trevil]

As per Miguel's page, this year:

Brady is playing at a very depressed cap hit, with a huge increase coming next season.

Moss is playing for well below what it would cost to keep him.

Asante is playing for a somewhat below his current market value.

Seymour (assuming he bounces back) is playing for below is current market value. He has one more year in that range, then he spikes up a few mil, then he's a FA.

A. Thomas is playing on the depressed first year of a long-term deal, and hence several mil below his value or future hits.

Warren is playing for millions below his future level of cap hit.

Watson has two more years of a cheap deal, and then is a FA.

Wilfork has two more years of a cheap deal, and then is a FA.

Koppen is early in his deal, and playing at somewhat below his future cap hits.

Mankins has two more years of a cheap deal, and then is a FA.

Green has two more years on a deal that is probably somewhat below market value, and then is a FA.

Gay is a FA after this year, and presumably will be able to command a raise.


CONCLUSIONS:

1. The Pats can probably keep something like the current level of talent together for another year or two, but after that it will be very difficult.

2. The Pats are likely to stick to their guns about not paying FULL market value for anybody expensive. Guys who won't accept that will therefore be gone.

3. Seymour is likely gone after his current contract expires.

So your findings show that everybody is either in the first couple of years of their contract or in the last couple of years of their contract. That's some real groundbreaking analysis. How long did it take you to figure that out?

 

[PATSNUTme]

With all due respect, on this day, 12/26/07,I'm not going to worry about next years cap.

We have the Giants , the bye, and then the first playoff game to think about. We have records and NFL history to think about. If you guys want to worry about the cap instead of enjoying this awesome run we are on, but I won't and the people of Homerville won't.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Either:

A. You haven't read the thread
B. You like to exaggerate other people's opinions, because you're too lame to argue with them as actually stated
C. Both of the above

Try "D" - which I felt was pretty obviously the point of my response, which for some reason you chose to only pull a few words out of:

I'll explain it a little slower this time:

D. There were plenty of people in 2004 saying the same thing about our salary cap situation in 2007.

I'm guessing you'd tend to agree that we have a pretty competitive team this year, wouldn't you?

 

[NEPatriot]

hopefully, some of our best players will stay with the team for a reasonable paycheck.

it's not about the money. It's another SB ring.

 

[Fencer]

Try "D" - which I felt was pretty obviously the point of my response, which for some reason you chose to only pull a few words out of:

I'll explain it a little slower this time:

D. There were plenty of people in 2004 saying the same thing about our salary cap situation in 2007.

I'm guessing you'd tend to agree that we have a pretty competitive team this year, wouldn't you?

The salary cap also underwent a huge percentage increase over that period, something that won't happen any time again soon.

 

[Fencer]

So your findings show that everybody is either in the first couple of years of their contract or in the last couple of years of their contract.

No. I noticed that a large fraction of the Pats' top players were either:

A. Toward the end of a cheap rookie deal
B. In the cheap years of a back-end-loaded contract.

I further noticed that

C. Very few of the Patriots' salary cap dollars were being spent unproductively this year, whether in totally dead money or in paying the price for older back-end-loaded contracts.

Even given the Patriots' high standards, this is an above-average year for them in terms of efficiently utilizing the salary cap.

 

[makewayhomer]

what the Pats have done this year is going to be near impossible to duplicate, it's a near perfect storm of positive events:

AD in the first (cheap) year of a good deal.
Stallworth and Moss both playing for well below market value
no huge FA losses recently
great contributions from various rookie contract guys

guys signing below market deals with us will only continue if we continue to be an elite team. This is largely dependent on drafting well. there is a large skill in drafting, but also a lot of luck, and if things turn bad for a couple of years, that will really hurt us. ie if we can't replace Asante and Bruschi and Seau, we're not the best team in the league anymore, and those veteran FA who want to win might go to the Colts for cheap money if THEY are the ones winning the SB. or the Chargers.

success is a precarious thing.

 

[Clonamery]

With all due respect, on this day, 12/26/07,I'm not going to worry about next years cap.

We have the Giants , the bye, and then the first playoff game to think about. We have records and NFL history to think about. If you guys want to worry about the cap instead of enjoying this awesome run we are on, but I won't and the people of Homerville won't.

Know-it-all!

 

[Clonamery]

success is a precarious thing.

True....but so is life, love, beauty, etc..........

 

[MoLewisrocks]

what the Pats have done this year is going to be near impossible to duplicate, it's a near perfect storm of positive events:

AD in the first (cheap) year of a good deal.
Stallworth and Moss both playing for well below market value
no huge FA losses recently
great contributions from various rookie contract guys

guys signing below market deals with us will only continue if we continue to be an elite team. This is largely dependent on drafting well. there is a large skill in drafting, but also a lot of luck, and if things turn bad for a couple of years, that will really hurt us. ie if we can't replace Asante and Bruschi and Seau, we're not the best team in the league anymore, and those veteran FA who want to win might go to the Colts for cheap money if THEY are the ones winning the SB. or the Chargers.

success is a precarious thing.

Considering we got bounced out of the playoffs the last two consecutive seasons, it's amazing AD and Moss and Stallworth and Washington and Morris and Welker all still wanted to come and play with us...

They come for the potential to be great along side Brady and under the tutelage of Belichick and fulfill their own expectations to achieve their potential that they know would likely be denied elsewhere. As long as those two are here, they WILL come... Part of the lure for these guys, as was the case with Rodney after our 9-7 2002 season, is the chance to be part of what puts this team back on top, not just a chance to tag along on someone else's ride. Belichick doesn't want guys looking to jump on the bandwaggon and collect a ring - he's looking for guys who want a shot at one badly enough to fill whatever roll he needs them to.

Polian has a different model, and doesn't persue those guys (because he hasn't had success with FA). SD doesn't need them - talent isn't lacking there, just brain power under center and on the sidelines, and we aren't competing for that either of those slots.