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You're right about the health thing with Shiancoe; certainly it would be a disincentive to guaranteeing his salary. Having 4 TEs makes sense, however, although preferably with more ST contribution.
Some recent article said the Pats dressed 8 OL more often than 7 last season. I was surprised.
Schiancoe is still an unknown to me. Everytime I think I get a read there is the other side of the coin which makes sense too. That one will be interesting, but at the end of the day I wouldn't be shocked to find out that he will not be here.
I believe that the NEP actually had 3 TE's active in about 25% of the games last year, which would already leave Fells as the odd man out if all 3 are healthy, although one could also assume that Belichick wanted more 3 TE gameday actives and couldn't get them due to injuries/lack of player. Maybe he does want to carry 4 + 1 on PUP (although we're expecting Ballard to me moved to permanent IR, maybe Belichick knows that he has potential for a late season push?)
I think that Schiancoe's a goner, but it could certainly go either way.