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The 2011 "expert consensus" draft rankings

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by stinkypete, Mar 22, 2011.

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  1. stinkypete

    stinkypete In the Starting Line-Up

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    I've just done a little experiment. Outside of the top 20 or so, there is rarely any agreement as to who the top draft prospects are each year. Everybody has a favorite site they visit for rankings, each site has their favorite players, and each site completely misses a player who winds up going in round 2. I have tried to collect as many rankings as possible to reach a consensus top 100.

    Attached is my attempt to find the consensus media opinions of the top prospects in this draft. To do this I imported the prospect rankings of 9 sites and/or "experts" (Mayock, Kiper, McShay, NFL Draft Countdown, Great Blue North, CBS, About.com, CDS and Yahoo) and found the mean ranking of each player. A player had to be ranked in at least 3 of the above sites in order to be considered.

    The results are very interesting. If anything, they give a good indication as to where the value can be found. Some highlights...

    -Cam Newton's average rank is #16. He's high potential and high upside, but I have a very hard time believing he goes #1 overall. Has there ever been a riskier #1 overall pick?

    -Mel Kiper thinks Brooks Reed is a 1st rounder? Not one of the 9 sites I checked had him in their top 40, and his average ranking is 64.5. Jabaal Sheard is ranked significantly higher than Reed, and Sam Acho is not far behind.

    -LSU DT Drake Nevis is ranked as high as #16 and as low as #120. How the hell does that happen? Likewise, Cameron Heyward is ranked as high as #23 and as low as #100.

    -The Patriots position at #17 looks very good from a value standpoint. Someone from the group of Cameron Jordan, JJ Watt, Aldon Smith or Ryan Kerrigan will be available. I'd be happy with any of those 4.

    -The Patriots position at #28 looks very poor from a value standpoint. There is a significant value dropoff after Akeem Ayers ( whom I don't love at 25th overall with an average rank of 25.2). Unless Mark Ingram falls, the guy picked at #28 will likely be a 2nd round talent. This is the pick to trade.
     

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  2. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Interesting. Shows to go you that "professionals" are guessing along with the rest of us at this point.
     
  3. Irish Hooligan

    Irish Hooligan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I appreciate your efforts here sir, nice work! Interesting read.
     
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