manxman2601
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I've been doing some thinking on this over the weekend and here's how I see things at this moment.
1. Safety. With Goldson, Branch and now Michael Griffin (reportedly) now being franchised, this is going to be the most difficult position for the Patriots to sort out this off-season. The FA market is close to drying up and, as we know, the draft class is weak.. I don't see Markelle Martin as the type of player that can come in and upgrade our defensive backfield immediately which leaves Mark Barron and Harrison Smith as the only available safeties worth considering. Unfortunately, from my perspective as a Barron fan, other teams will be facing the same dilemma so it's more likely that he'll go to the Bengals or Jets in the first and certainly won't get past the Colts at the beginning of round two.
2. Safety conversion projects. Of course, the Patriots could always draft a CB who projects well to the safety position. Stephon Gilmore, Trumaine Johnson and Alfonso Dennard are the best fits in this category. Gilmore is looking more and more like a first rounder and I question whether BB will take the risk of a conversion project in the first round (which might also explain the lack of first round pass rushers). Dennard represents good value if he falls to #48 and Trumaine Johnson could get looks there at 48 or 63.
3. 3-4 vs 4-3. It's becoming more and more the consensus view that the Patriots will revert to a base 3-4 next season, I've worked on the same assumption. However, we're really struggling for the personnel to fit doing so immediately. In 2010, there was real problems trying to fit our D/line into a 30 front resulting in Wilfork having to play out of position. Deaderick looks a good fit do a DE but I wonder whether Kyle Love and his lack of ideal length is. Along with safety, I see 3-4 DE as the no 1 priority for the Pats this off season. The problem is, I think they need two.
Adding to the personnel problems at DE is the lack of personnel at OLB. As things stand, we've got Rob Ninkovich and Jermaine Cunningham. Andre Carter doesn't want to play OLB and Mark Anderson, coming off a pretty successful season might be too rich for BB to re-sign. Compounding the problem here is BB's obvious reluctance to draft an OLB early. With safety and DE being the bigger needs, I'm not sure this position gets addressed until later in the draft.
One final point on the 3-4, 4-3 debate. Try doing a mock and not have Luke Kuechly going to the Eagles (which is quite possible). There's not many obvious fits for him, at least if you are mocking on need. If Kuechly falls into the Patriots laps at #27, I wonder if BB drafts him on value and sticks with the 4-3. Mayo, Spikes, Kuechly would be an imposing LB corps and would solve the problem of trying to fit the draft class round pegs in to the 3-4 square hole.
3. WR. We'll know today whether or not Wes Welker is franchised. The thing is, if he isn't, I don't see it impacting our draft in any great way at the top end. It does mean that Ryan Broyles, Danny Coale and Devon Wylie probably shoot their way up our draft board.
4. Trading back I'm not convinced there is huge value for teams in the second round willing to give up too much to trade for the Pats first rounders. Will anyone give up a 2013 first for the likes of Zach Brown or Whitney Mercilus? I'm not convinced. I can see trading back for additional late rounders and whilst BB is a genius at getting exceptional value out of his trades, I struggle to see it happening again this year. With our need at safety and the shortage of quality 30 front DE's in rounds two and later, this might be the year where there is better value in staying put. The two second rounders could certainly be up for grabs however.
In terms of fitting need into the draft then, I see it ordered in this way:
1. Safety
2. Defensive End
3. No 2 WR
4. 3-4 OLB (more likely to be addressed in FA as BB normally does)
5. CB
6. Slot WR if we don't franchise or re-sign Welker or..
6. 2nd 3-4 DE
Unless free agency changes anything, I'm going to be working on the assumption that we will be going with safety and DE as our first two picks which means I don't think we should be looking much beyond Mark Barron, Kendall Reyes, Harrison Smith or a falling DT like Brockers or Still.
1. Safety. With Goldson, Branch and now Michael Griffin (reportedly) now being franchised, this is going to be the most difficult position for the Patriots to sort out this off-season. The FA market is close to drying up and, as we know, the draft class is weak.. I don't see Markelle Martin as the type of player that can come in and upgrade our defensive backfield immediately which leaves Mark Barron and Harrison Smith as the only available safeties worth considering. Unfortunately, from my perspective as a Barron fan, other teams will be facing the same dilemma so it's more likely that he'll go to the Bengals or Jets in the first and certainly won't get past the Colts at the beginning of round two.
2. Safety conversion projects. Of course, the Patriots could always draft a CB who projects well to the safety position. Stephon Gilmore, Trumaine Johnson and Alfonso Dennard are the best fits in this category. Gilmore is looking more and more like a first rounder and I question whether BB will take the risk of a conversion project in the first round (which might also explain the lack of first round pass rushers). Dennard represents good value if he falls to #48 and Trumaine Johnson could get looks there at 48 or 63.
3. 3-4 vs 4-3. It's becoming more and more the consensus view that the Patriots will revert to a base 3-4 next season, I've worked on the same assumption. However, we're really struggling for the personnel to fit doing so immediately. In 2010, there was real problems trying to fit our D/line into a 30 front resulting in Wilfork having to play out of position. Deaderick looks a good fit do a DE but I wonder whether Kyle Love and his lack of ideal length is. Along with safety, I see 3-4 DE as the no 1 priority for the Pats this off season. The problem is, I think they need two.
Adding to the personnel problems at DE is the lack of personnel at OLB. As things stand, we've got Rob Ninkovich and Jermaine Cunningham. Andre Carter doesn't want to play OLB and Mark Anderson, coming off a pretty successful season might be too rich for BB to re-sign. Compounding the problem here is BB's obvious reluctance to draft an OLB early. With safety and DE being the bigger needs, I'm not sure this position gets addressed until later in the draft.
One final point on the 3-4, 4-3 debate. Try doing a mock and not have Luke Kuechly going to the Eagles (which is quite possible). There's not many obvious fits for him, at least if you are mocking on need. If Kuechly falls into the Patriots laps at #27, I wonder if BB drafts him on value and sticks with the 4-3. Mayo, Spikes, Kuechly would be an imposing LB corps and would solve the problem of trying to fit the draft class round pegs in to the 3-4 square hole.
3. WR. We'll know today whether or not Wes Welker is franchised. The thing is, if he isn't, I don't see it impacting our draft in any great way at the top end. It does mean that Ryan Broyles, Danny Coale and Devon Wylie probably shoot their way up our draft board.
4. Trading back I'm not convinced there is huge value for teams in the second round willing to give up too much to trade for the Pats first rounders. Will anyone give up a 2013 first for the likes of Zach Brown or Whitney Mercilus? I'm not convinced. I can see trading back for additional late rounders and whilst BB is a genius at getting exceptional value out of his trades, I struggle to see it happening again this year. With our need at safety and the shortage of quality 30 front DE's in rounds two and later, this might be the year where there is better value in staying put. The two second rounders could certainly be up for grabs however.
In terms of fitting need into the draft then, I see it ordered in this way:
1. Safety
2. Defensive End
3. No 2 WR
4. 3-4 OLB (more likely to be addressed in FA as BB normally does)
5. CB
6. Slot WR if we don't franchise or re-sign Welker or..
6. 2nd 3-4 DE
Unless free agency changes anything, I'm going to be working on the assumption that we will be going with safety and DE as our first two picks which means I don't think we should be looking much beyond Mark Barron, Kendall Reyes, Harrison Smith or a falling DT like Brockers or Still.
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