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Team Needs And Predicting The Patriots Draft.


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I think the 600 lb gorilla in the room is Matt Light. If he decides to retire, offensive tackle shoots up in importance. I like Vollmer and Solder, but not anything that's behind them, and back problems on 6'8" football players usually don't disappear.

Our needs at safety are well documented thoroughout this forum. Probably close to a unanimous #1 need. So getting one becomes a matter of reaching for one in the draft because of need and passing up another player who could help us. I personally think that Martin in the third round is better for the team than Barron in the first. There are probably under the radar free agents around the league that Belichick has been tracking that we don't necessarily know about.

Our needs at WR are well documented also. As productive as it's been the past two years, our offense is playing with one hand tied behind its back because the defense can play a single deep safety and crowd the middle of the field. We have no deep threats that demand anything more than straight man coverage, which they can't reliably beat. Teams have figured out that if they pack linebackers and a safety in the short passing zones, they can force Brady to make perfect throw after perfect throw to get the ball down the field and take their chances with pass deflections and big hits leading to turnovers. Fortunately, WR seems to be the most bountiful position in free agency, so while a young, play-making WR like Floyd is fun to consider, a Lloyd or Wayne or Jackson would work out just fine. And I'd still rather use the first on Mike Wallace than a WR in the draft.

I think most everyone here agrees on the needs of WR and S (or CB if McCourty or Dowling is full-time safety). We need a kick returner badly. That might be the #3 priority when you consider how few times the offense started beyond the 25. With the emphasis that BB puts on special teams, we could be looking at a second round pick on a productive kick returner that doubles as a depth WR (Hilton) or DB (Boykin).

But if Light retires, the need for OT shoots up dramatically. Even if he sticks it out another year, I'd still invest a second-day pick in an OT like Zebrie Sanders. Brady is still the franchise here, and I'd like to think that he'll be motivated by the fact that he didn't play his best in the biggest games last year, and to play well in Martinez's memory. I expect him to hear the criticisms and have one more MVP-caliber year in him. The need to keep him upright cannot be overstated.
 
We have four OT's: Solder, Light, Vollmer, and Cannon

Still, I agree with your analysis. Vollmer can't be counted on for a full season. Cannon is raw.
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I would also note the need for a top OG since Waters will give us at most one more year.
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I think the 600 lb gorilla in the room is Matt Light. .
 
We have four OT's: Solder, Light, Vollmer, and Cannon

Still, I agree with your analysis. Vollmer can't be counted on for a full season. Cannon is raw.
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I would also note the need for a top OG since Waters will give us at most one more year.
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The guy I really like at OG is Brandon Brooks from Miami (OH). He's 6'5" 346lbs, runs a sub 5.0 40 time, and showed good athletecism for his size at his Pro Day (rivaled Cordy Glenn in terms of numbers). He's bigger than the typical Pats OG, but has the athletecism to fit the scheme. I would like to grab Brooks in the 3rd/4th round and also take C Phil Blake from Baylor. Could you imagine an OL in a few years of LT Solder (6'8" 319lbs) LG Brooks (6'5" 346lbs) C Blake (6'2" 311lbs) RG Cannon (6'5" 358lbs) RT Vollmer (6'8" 315lbs). Almost a perfectly symmetrical OL.
 
I'm almost 99% sure we take a Guard with one of our first rounders. The amount of value at Guard/Center where we will be drafting is projected to be through the roof.
 
We have four OT's: Solder, Light, Vollmer, and Cannon

Still, I agree with your analysis. Vollmer can't be counted on for a full season. Cannon is raw.
-----------------

I would also note the need for a top OG since Waters will give us at most one more year.
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The consensus on Cannon is he's the guard of the future. He played OT because of injuries in the season... given his weight, build and athleticism, it would be a waste to throw him in at tackle. He's an ideal RG. He was a 1st round guard prospect before his cancer. I'd prefer him to play guard certainly.

I could see us drafting a tackle in the second round if Light retires.

I agree with VrabelJr that we may pick up a guard (preferably one who projects to play center) if one presents value and potentially a center somewhere down the line if not. Offensive Line isn't getting enough love int he draft talk.

I think ideally we would like to see Solder, Mankins, a drafted center, cannon and Vollmer on the line of the future. Vollmer started all 16 games in 2010...I'm hoping this was just a down year.
 
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Our needs at WR are well documented also. As productive as it's been the past two years, our offense is playing with one hand tied behind its back because the defense can play a single deep safety and crowd the middle of the field. We have no deep threats that demand anything more than straight man coverage, which they can't reliably beat. Teams have figured out that if they pack linebackers and a safety in the short passing zones, they can force Brady to make perfect throw after perfect throw to get the ball down the field and take their chances with pass deflections and big hits leading to turnovers. Fortunately, WR seems to be the most bountiful position in free agency, so while a young, play-making WR like Floyd is fun to consider, a Lloyd or Wayne or Jackson would work out just fine. And I'd still rather use the first on Mike Wallace than a WR in the draft.

I think this is a little exaggerated. We ran over the Broncos, put 23 on a very good defensive Ravens team and had to play the Superbowl w/ our best non-Brady offensive player at 60%. Any offense is going to get worse when the guy who commands double teams can effectively be single covered.

Not saying I don't want to improve the position but I could go into camp like this: Welker, Branch, Edelman, 2 draft picks (1 pretty high), Underwood, Ocho and see what shakes out.
 
The consensus on Cannon is he's the guard of the future. He played OT because of injuries in the season... given his weight, build and athleticism, it would be a waste to throw him in at tackle. He's an ideal RG. He was a 1st round guard prospect before his cancer. I'd prefer him to play guard certainly.

I could see us drafting a tackle in the second round if Light retires.

I agree with VrabelJr that we may pick up a guard (preferably one who projects to play center) if one presents value and potentially a center somewhere down the line if not. Offensive Line isn't getting enough love int he draft talk.

I think ideally we would like to see Solder, Mankins, a drafted center, cannon and Vollmer on the line of the future. Vollmer started all 16 games in 2010...I'm hoping this was just a down year.

I'm not going to go off on a tangent about Cannon being a Guard (I've had to do this in other threads) but there is nothing in his entire career that has ever suggested he will be playing Guard in the NFL. A few analysts projected that and all of a sudden it became truth around here. Cannon has ridiculously good feet for a man his size. Playing him at Guard would be a waste.
 
I like the Wisc OG Zeitler - 6' 4'' 315lbs

A perfectionist, Zeitler expects more out of himself than anybody else possibly could in the class, in the weight room and on the field. His anxious nit-picking is noticed by classmates, teachers and teammates, but it is opposing defenders who pay the price when the sum of his hard work pays off on the field. So, as expected, scouting reports show he does just about everything according to the book to his best ability - and he has plenty of ability. Zeitler added a significant amount of lean mass in his college career and used it well. According to NFL Draft Report statistics, he led college football with 142 knockdown blocks and had 33 blocks that resulted in touchdowns, obviously a major reason Wisconsin had a per-game average of 44.62 points and 467 total yards, including 237 on the ground in 2011. - Frank Cooney - The Sports Xchange, NFL Draft Scout

If that doesn't scream Patriots what does.

also Chad Reuter of NFL draft scout

There will no doubt be comparisons between Zeitler and 2011 third-round pick John Moffitt, and both players have the size, tenacity and mobility to play for a long time in the NFL. But while the Waukesha native may not be as big as his former compatriot at left guard, his lower center of gravity, agility as a pass protector, and consistency hitting targets in space could earn him a higher grade from some teams
 
Personally I think you see one of these three taken; Alfonzo Dennard, Trumaine Johnson or Josh Robinson. All project to be able to play safety and also corner on the outside. Great size and length in all of them and Robinson possesses Special Teams value to us also...along with being coached along Belichick's coaching tree.

I wouldn't be amazed to see no safety drafted at all.

As a true roaming safety, Markelle Martin is a guy I really like. Didn't get to see him at the combine but hope he can go in his pro day. He's a physical freak and his best days are on the biggest stages.

IMO Martin is the best free safety in the draft and I would take him with our 3rd, 4th or 5th pick. Probably won't drop as far as our 5th despite the injury hampering him at the moment. He could work on his tackling though.

Robinson's a fast riser. As per Mayock's latest top-5/position, he's his 3rd-ranked CB,
behind only Claiborne, Kirkpatrick & Jenkins.

An interesting addition to the top-5 list at Safety is Barron's Alabama teammate DeQuan Menzie,
whom Mayock sees as a CB-FS conversion. He & Phil Thomas have leap-frogged Martin & Iloka.

NFL.com news: Post-combine position rankings for 2012 NFL Draft
 
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Thinking about where value meets need in this draft, I have come to the conclusion that I like any mock that includes the following:

  • 2 front seven defenders in the first round
  • one FS/CB in the second round
  • a total of 2 FS/CB and 2 OL in rounds 2-4

That would suit me fine. Hopefully we could address WR and maybe a RB in free agency.
 
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I think the 600 lb gorilla in the room is Matt Light. If he decides to retire, offensive tackle shoots up in importance. I like Vollmer and Solder, but not anything that's behind them, and back problems on 6'8" football players usually don't disappear.

Our needs at safety are well documented thoroughout this forum. Probably close to a unanimous #1 need. So getting one becomes a matter of reaching for one in the draft because of need and passing up another player who could help us. I personally think that Martin in the third round is better for the team than Barron in the first. There are probably under the radar free agents around the league that Belichick has been tracking that we don't necessarily know about.

Our needs at WR are well documented also. As productive as it's been the past two years, our offense is playing with one hand tied behind its back because the defense can play a single deep safety and crowd the middle of the field. We have no deep threats that demand anything more than straight man coverage, which they can't reliably beat. Teams have figured out that if they pack linebackers and a safety in the short passing zones, they can force Brady to make perfect throw after perfect throw to get the ball down the field and take their chances with pass deflections and big hits leading to turnovers. Fortunately, WR seems to be the most bountiful position in free agency, so while a young, play-making WR like Floyd is fun to consider, a Lloyd or Wayne or Jackson would work out just fine. And I'd still rather use the first on Mike Wallace than a WR in the draft.

I think most everyone here agrees on the needs of WR and S (or CB if McCourty or Dowling is full-time safety). We need a kick returner badly. That might be the #3 priority when you consider how few times the offense started beyond the 25. With the emphasis that BB puts on special teams, we could be looking at a second round pick on a productive kick returner that doubles as a depth WR (Hilton) or DB (Boykin).

But if Light retires, the need for OT shoots up dramatically. Even if he sticks it out another year, I'd still invest a second-day pick in an OT like Zebrie Sanders. Brady is still the franchise here, and I'd like to think that he'll be motivated by the fact that he didn't play his best in the biggest games last year, and to play well in Martinez's memory. I expect him to hear the criticisms and have one more MVP-caliber year in him. The need to keep him upright cannot be overstated.

Can't disagree w/ anything here. Let's hope that Light plays one more year, so that Vollmer's health, Solder's future as a LT, and Cannon's health & position fit can be better-foreseen. Then whichever holes open can be filled at next year's draft.
 
Thinking about where value meets need in this draft, I have come to the conclusion that I like any mock that includes the following:

  • 2 front seven defenders in the first round
  • one FS/CB in the second round
  • a total of 2 FS/CB and 2 OL in rounds 2-4

That would suit me fine. Hopefully we could address WR and maybe a RB in free agency.

Depending on how the board runs the quality of front seven defenders when it is time for us to pick could be either very, very good or very, very bad but no where in between the two.
 
Depending on how the board runs the quality of front seven defenders when it is time for us to pick could be either very, very good or very, very bad but no where in between the two.

I would say either very good or very average. The lack of red chip talent in this draft forces us to take white chip talent and try to project them higher than the tape says they should be valued.

DE/DT Reyes is a perfect example. The tape says 2nd round pick, with some warts, but the reality is this draft only has 18 kids with first round grades, so a lot of second rounders will by default become first rounders. Someone will overdraft Reyes and then hope his career tracks like Gronkowski and not like Brace or Chad Jackson or Bethel Johnson.

For teams picking from #19 to #32 in the first round, character and scheme fit become HUGE in the evaluation process.
 
Center. I have this horrible feeling that BB's first pick will be a freaking Center....
 
I wouldn't be surprised at all. This is the THIRD year that this board has been discussing drafting Koppen's replacement with a high draft pick.

IMHO, we would help the team a lot by drafting Konz, solidifying the center position for years. BTW, I would still sign Connolly for starter pay. He'll start somewhere this year, given our injury history.

Center. I have this horrible feeling that BB's first pick will be a freaking Center....
 
I would say either very good or very average. The lack of red chip talent in this draft forces us to take white chip talent and try to project them higher than the tape says they should be valued.

DE/DT Reyes is a perfect example. The tape says 2nd round pick, with some warts, but the reality is this draft only has 18 kids with first round grades, so a lot of second rounders will by default become first rounders. Someone will overdraft Reyes and then hope his career tracks like Gronkowski and not like Brace or Chad Jackson or Bethel Johnson.

For teams picking from #19 to #32 in the first round, character and scheme fit become HUGE in the evaluation process.

If you don't mind me asking, who's your 18?
 
Center. I have this horrible feeling that BB's first pick will be a freaking Center....

There may be a center drafted, but it won't be a high pick. I'm very confident that with as many years in the system as they have, Connolly and Wendell are much better options at center than anybody in the draft.
 
I don't like this draft in general. I REALLY don't like where the Pats are picking in this draft. For me this is a trade up or trade out type draft.
 
I don't like this draft in general. I REALLY don't like where the Pats are picking in this draft. For me this is a trade up or trade out type draft.

Agree Coach. But, it's going to be hard to trade back because two other teams have multiple firsts too. Cleveland and Cincy. They might be willing and they pick ahead of us. And, Al Davis isn't around any longer. My inclination is to move up and try to get a two-gap de like Fletcher Cox or Devon Still. 31 and 63 into late teens. Hope an olb slips to 27 like; Mercilus, Perry, Branch or even Courtney Upshaw. Get a cb at 48. You've added talent on defense.
 
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