Team Needs And Predicting The Patriots Draft.

[manxman2601]

I've been doing some thinking on this over the weekend and here's how I see things at this moment.

1. Safety. With Goldson, Branch and now Michael Griffin (reportedly) now being franchised, this is going to be the most difficult position for the Patriots to sort out this off-season. The FA market is close to drying up and, as we know, the draft class is weak.. I don't see Markelle Martin as the type of player that can come in and upgrade our defensive backfield immediately which leaves Mark Barron and Harrison Smith as the only available safeties worth considering. Unfortunately, from my perspective as a Barron fan, other teams will be facing the same dilemma so it's more likely that he'll go to the Bengals or Jets in the first and certainly won't get past the Colts at the beginning of round two.

2. Safety conversion projects. Of course, the Patriots could always draft a CB who projects well to the safety position. Stephon Gilmore, Trumaine Johnson and Alfonso Dennard are the best fits in this category. Gilmore is looking more and more like a first rounder and I question whether BB will take the risk of a conversion project in the first round (which might also explain the lack of first round pass rushers). Dennard represents good value if he falls to #48 and Trumaine Johnson could get looks there at 48 or 63.

3. 3-4 vs 4-3. It's becoming more and more the consensus view that the Patriots will revert to a base 3-4 next season, I've worked on the same assumption. However, we're really struggling for the personnel to fit doing so immediately. In 2010, there was real problems trying to fit our D/line into a 30 front resulting in Wilfork having to play out of position. Deaderick looks a good fit do a DE but I wonder whether Kyle Love and his lack of ideal length is. Along with safety, I see 3-4 DE as the no 1 priority for the Pats this off season. The problem is, I think they need two.

Adding to the personnel problems at DE is the lack of personnel at OLB. As things stand, we've got Rob Ninkovich and Jermaine Cunningham. Andre Carter doesn't want to play OLB and Mark Anderson, coming off a pretty successful season might be too rich for BB to re-sign. Compounding the problem here is BB's obvious reluctance to draft an OLB early. With safety and DE being the bigger needs, I'm not sure this position gets addressed until later in the draft.

One final point on the 3-4, 4-3 debate. Try doing a mock and not have Luke Kuechly going to the Eagles (which is quite possible). There's not many obvious fits for him, at least if you are mocking on need. If Kuechly falls into the Patriots laps at #27, I wonder if BB drafts him on value and sticks with the 4-3. Mayo, Spikes, Kuechly would be an imposing LB corps and would solve the problem of trying to fit the draft class round pegs in to the 3-4 square hole.

3. WR. We'll know today whether or not Wes Welker is franchised. The thing is, if he isn't, I don't see it impacting our draft in any great way at the top end. It does mean that Ryan Broyles, Danny Coale and Devon Wylie probably shoot their way up our draft board.

4. Trading back I'm not convinced there is huge value for teams in the second round willing to give up too much to trade for the Pats first rounders. Will anyone give up a 2013 first for the likes of Zach Brown or Whitney Mercilus? I'm not convinced. I can see trading back for additional late rounders and whilst BB is a genius at getting exceptional value out of his trades, I struggle to see it happening again this year. With our need at safety and the shortage of quality 30 front DE's in rounds two and later, this might be the year where there is better value in staying put. The two second rounders could certainly be up for grabs however.

In terms of fitting need into the draft then, I see it ordered in this way:

1. Safety
2. Defensive End
3. No 2 WR
4. 3-4 OLB (more likely to be addressed in FA as BB normally does)
5. CB
6. Slot WR if we don't franchise or re-sign Welker or..
6. 2nd 3-4 DE

Unless free agency changes anything, I'm going to be working on the assumption that we will be going with safety and DE as our first two picks which means I don't think we should be looking much beyond Mark Barron, Kendall Reyes, Harrison Smith or a falling DT like Brockers or Still.

 

[WhiZa]

I'm glad you gave your opinion on this as I'm also trying to figure out the team needs before I go too far into my draft predictions. I think you are 100% right about safety. The tough part is this is a very weak safety class. Would BB go into the season with a 2nd/3rd round safety and the duct tape he played with last year? I think he'll look to trade or pick up one in FA. It was a strong FA class for safeties before the franchise tags.

I also think we'll move back to a 3-4 though I like a lot of what we were able to do with the 4-3. I predict a lot of *****ing about certain player's performance in the 3-4 this season . As we talk about in every draft since BB has been here, there is a need at OLB and DE. Will he actually draft that position with a high pick? Probably not.

We definitely need another WR, but I dont think BB will be fully confident in his drafting ability at this position for a place as the #2 WR on the team. Even if he used a first round pick on one. I say we'll be going after a top WR in the FA market and maybe a later round pick in the draft

I don't feel we need another CB unless BB moved McCourty to safety on a regular basis.

pre-FA team needs:
DE (multiple)
S (multiple)
WR (multiple)
OLB
C
blocking TE

 

[patsfaninpa]

I've been doing some thinking on this over the weekend and here's how I see things at this moment.

1. Safety. With Goldson, Branch and now Michael Griffin (reportedly) now being franchised, this is going to be the most difficult position for the Patriots to sort out this off-season. The FA market is close to drying up and, as we know, the draft class is weak.. I don't see Markelle Martin as the type of player that can come in and upgrade our defensive backfield immediately which leaves Mark Barron and Harrison Smith as the only available safeties worth considering. Unfortunately, from my perspective as a Barron fan, other teams will be facing the same dilemma so it's more likely that he'll go to the Bengals or Jets in the first and certainly won't get past the Colts at the beginning of round two.

2. Safety conversion projects. Of course, the Patriots could always draft a CB who projects well to the safety position. Stephon Gilmore, Trumaine Johnson and Alfonso Dennard are the best fits in this category. Gilmore is looking more and more like a first rounder and I question whether BB will take the risk of a conversion project in the first round (which might also explain the lack of first round pass rushers). Dennard represents good value if he falls to #48 and Trumaine Johnson could get looks there at 48 or 63.

3. 3-4 vs 4-3. It's becoming more and more the consensus view that the Patriots will revert to a base 3-4 next season, I've worked on the same assumption. However, we're really struggling for the personnel to fit doing so immediately. In 2010, there was real problems trying to fit our D/line into a 30 front resulting in Wilfork having to play out of position. Deaderick looks a good fit do a DE but I wonder whether Kyle Love and his lack of ideal length is. Along with safety, I see 3-4 DE as the no 1 priority for the Pats this off season. The problem is, I think they need two.

Adding to the personnel problems at DE is the lack of personnel at OLB. As things stand, we've got Rob Ninkovich and Jermaine Cunningham. Andre Carter doesn't want to play OLB and Mark Anderson, coming off a pretty successful season might be too rich for BB to re-sign. Compounding the problem here is BB's obvious reluctance to draft an OLB early. With safety and DE being the bigger needs, I'm not sure this position gets addressed until later in the draft.

One final point on the 3-4, 4-3 debate. Try doing a mock and not have Luke Kuechly going to the Eagles (which is quite possible). There's not many obvious fits for him, at least if you are mocking on need. If Kuechly falls into the Patriots laps at #27, I wonder if BB drafts him on value and sticks with the 4-3. Mayo, Spikes, Kuechly would be an imposing LB corps and would solve the problem of trying to fit the draft class round pegs in to the 3-4 square hole.

3. WR. We'll know today whether or not Wes Welker is franchised. The thing is, if he isn't, I don't see it impacting our draft in any great way at the top end. It does mean that Ryan Broyles, Danny Coale and Devon Wylie probably shoot their way up our draft board.

4. Trading back I'm not convinced there is huge value for teams in the second round willing to give up too much to trade for the Pats first rounders. Will anyone give up a 2013 first for the likes of Zach Brown or Whitney Mercilus? I'm not convinced. I can see trading back for additional late rounders and whilst BB is a genius at getting exceptional value out of his trades, I struggle to see it happening again this year. With our need at safety and the shortage of quality 30 front DE's in rounds two and later, this might be the year where there is better value in staying put. The two second rounders could certainly be up for grabs however.

In terms of fitting need into the draft then, I see it ordered in this way:

1. Safety
2. Defensive End
3. No 2 WR
4. 3-4 OLB (more likely to be addressed in FA as BB normally does)
5. CB
6. Slot WR if we don't franchise or re-sign Welker or..
6. 2nd 3-4 DE

Unless free agency changes anything, I'm going to be working on the assumption that we will be going with safety and DE as our first two picks which means I don't think we should be looking much beyond Mark Barron, Kendall Reyes, Harrison Smith or a falling DT like Brockers or Still.

Still seems to be sliding a bit. Not sure why a 5.06 forty is being held against him? But, whatever. I honestly think some of it is related to what happened at PSU(Sandusky). He played poorly against Wisconsin and in bowl game. Coaching staff and team were in shambles prior to that bowl game. And, it showed. Not going to put that one on the players. But, he got the flu before the OSU game and didn't practice for 2 weeks. I think he can play a 3-4 de. He'll be more in the run-stopper mold. Like Ty Warren. Not the explosive athlete Seymour is. But, we can use another Ty Warren IMO. Would love to get him and Mark Barron if we can't get a safety in free agency. Barron dropping because of hernia surgery. Maybe, we get lucky and get 2 players at positions we could use.

 

[Ivan]

The most recent Draft Countdown mock is out and it seems to be pretty good matching needs and possible picks, it's also a great draft for the patriots imo. Dre Kirkpatrick at 27, Andre Branch at 31, Brandon thompson with their first 2nd and Ben Jones with the second 2nd. Sign Brandon Lloyd at WR and this draft would address a number os needs, DB, OLB/DE, DT, and C.

They would be far from done but this would be a really good approach this offseason.



2012 NFL Mock Draft - DraftCountdown.com

 

[Belichicknumber1]

The most recent Draft Countdown mock is out and it seems to be pretty good matching needs and possible picks, it's also a great draft for the patriots imo. Dre Kirkpatrick at 27, Andre Branch at 31, Brandon thompson with their first 2nd and Ben Jones with the second 2nd. Sign Brandon Lloyd at WR and this draft would address a number os needs, DB, OLB/DE, DT, and C.

They would be far from done but this would be a really good approach this offseason.



2012 NFL Mock Draft - DraftCountdown.com

I like the the 27 pick but i dont think Dre will fall that far. I hate cant stand despise hmm whats another word for hate ah i got it bernard pollard Andre Branch. He looks so slow cant tackle and looks lost on almost every video i see of him. Please we dont need another JC. I would rather take Worthy maybe Zach Brown and move him to safety but i i would love my binkie CRICK! But i dont like Branch and hope we dont take him

 

[reflexblue]

Lets see we need help on the DL, OLB, FS, C, deep threat WR. So as a veteran of all of BB's drafts i look for him to take a TE. Then who ever is a short injury prone DB.

 

[Gronkandez]

Lets see we need help on the DL, OLB, FS, C, deep threat WR. So as a veteran of all of BB's drafts i look for him to take a TE. Then who ever is a short injury prone DB.

Very astute observation...

I highly doubt the Pats take a Safety in the first round. BB rarely goes the plug-n-play route in the draft at a position of need. I can see them drafting a versatile CB/Safety who they bring along slowly while McCourty and Ihedigo hold down the fort. I think they'll draft a WR (McDaniels choice) and DL early on.

 

[DaBruinz]

BB has always tried to have the Pats at a point where the draft was not about filling needs, but adding depth and creating competition. That is unlikely to happen this year because of the hole at safety, the hole at DE, the hole at ROLB.

Especially with the tagging of many of the potential safeties and with DeCoud re-signing with the Falcons. Not to mention that Spencer and Campbell being tagged.

The one area where the Pats seem likely to be able to fill needs through Free Agency is at WR and probably the D-line. There are still some good quality players out there.

Safety, though, will probably require the Pats to make a trade or bring in someone who is willing to convert.

 

[ay-yo]

Currently we have no 3-4 OLB to pair w/ Nink. If we're playing 4-3 we have no RDE. (Resign Anderson and Carter)

We either need a FS or a CB if McCourty moves to FS full time. (Barron)

We also don't have a starting center signed. (Connoly)

WR needs some bodies but doesn't need top end quality. We already have 290 catches, 3,860 yards and 33 td's in Welker, Gronk and Hernandez. A restructured Ocho, Branch on a cheap deal, Edelman and 2 rookies (preferably 1 pick in round 2) would be fine for me.

 

[captain stone]

pre-FA team needs:
DE (multiple)
S (multiple)
WR (multiple)
OLB
C
blocking TE

I like the list, but would give a (multiple) to OLB, and add CB to the bottom.

P.S.: bummed that Decoud re-upped with ATL.
The list of avail. starting-caliber FSs is becoming waffer-thin.

 

[VrabelJr]

The value at Safety in the draft (and FA no for that matter, too) is just sooooooo bad this year. I'd prefer if we didn't take a Safety with any of our top 4 picks and instead use those on other parts of the defense to try and compensate.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that there will be much opportunity to improve at safety. Therefore, we should accept that our safeties will be about the same and try to improve elsewhere. BTW, safety play could improve as McCourty has a year of experience at the position. Barrett could also be more a factor than the #4 safety. After all, he was a developing starter when he was healthy. He wasn't doing well, but there may be potential.

We SHOULD indeed focus on improving the secondary, at the CORNER position. We start with Arrington, Moore, and Molden. We add Dowling. We should add 2-3 more in free agency and in the draft.

BOTTOM LINE
S Chung, McCourty, Ihedigbo, Barrett
CB tbd, Arrington, Dowling, Moore, Molden/tbd
DB tbd

There are lots of possibilities at improving the corners. This will give us an improved secondary.

The value at Safety in the draft (and FA no for that matter, too) is just sooooooo bad this year. I'd prefer if we didn't take a Safety with any of our top 4 picks and instead use those on other parts of the defense to try and compensate.

 

[VrabelJr]

For some reason our Secondary always looks good on paper going into the season and then gets ugly really fast once the opposing team's QB takes the field.

In regards to Barrett, I love him but him and Ihedigbo are probably going to duke it out in training camp with the loser having to learn how to sell insurance. Josh Barrett is an athletic freak given his size.

 

[captain stone]

Molden & Nate Jones are UFAs, as is Diggy. None of them are worth a penny more than the vet minimum,
with no signing bonus either, though I would welcome back all 3 of them.

The first thing I would do is re-sign Jimmy Sanders at the vet minimum for his system knowledge. Plan B would be Mike Adams, who played under RAC w/da Browns in '07 & '08, and under ManJudas in '09 & '10.
Then I would invite LaRon Landry & Jim Leonhard to Foxborough for physicals.
Then I would gage Richard Marshall's interest in playing FS.
Then I would trade #s w/Reggie Nelson.
Then I would consider Reggie Smith, Madieu Williams, Jordan Babineaux, Chris Harris, Eric Coleman, Steve Gregory & Paul Oliver for backup $$.

In the draft, if all of Mercilus, Branch, Perry, Upshaw, Hightower, Brockers, Cox, Still & Reyes are gone by 27/31, then I would strongly consider drafting Harrison Smith or Mark Barron. However, Barron must first pass
a physical & FS workout in Foxborough.
Other 1st-round options are Dennard & Gilmore, but only if Bill has no doubt that they can seamlessly go directly from college CB to FS for the NEP.
Trumaine Johnson is a 2nd-round possibility.
And I would be very, very aggressive in the UDFA FS market.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Molden & Nate Jones are UFAs, as is Diggy. None of them are worth a penny more than the vet minimum,
with no signing bonus either, though I would welcome back all 3 of them.

The first thing I would do is re-sign Jimmy Sanders at the vet minimum for his system knowledge. Plan B would be Mike Adams, who played under RAC w/da Browns in '07 & '08, and under ManJudas in '09 & '10.
Then I would invite LaRon Landry & Jim Leonhard to Foxborough for physicals.
Then I would gage Richard Marshall's interest in playing FS.
Then I would trade #s w/Reggie Nelson.
Then I would consider Reggie Smith, Madieu Williams, Jordan Babineaux, Chris Harris, Eric Coleman, Steve Gregory & Paul Oliver for backup $$.

In the draft, if all of Mercilus, Branch, Perry, Upshaw, Hightower, Brockers, Cox, Still & Reyes are gone by 27/31, then I would strongly consider drafting Harrison Smith or Mark Barron. However, Barron must first pass
a physical & FS workout in Foxborough.
Other 1st-round options are Dennard & Gilmore, but only if Bill has no doubt that they can seamlessly go directly from college CB to FS for the NEP.
Trumaine Johnson is a 2nd-round possibility.
And I would be very, very aggressive in the UDFA FS market.

Barron is a pure strong safety/ Having two Patrick Chungs on our defense would cripple it. Harrison Smith look like a corner with his hip movement and fluidity. I could accept us drafting him if the team feel he can convert to a free safety.

Personally I think you see one of these three taken; Alfonzo Dennard, Trumaine Johnson or Josh Robinson. All project to be able to play safety and also corner on the outside. Great size and length in all of them and Robinson possesses Special Teams value to us also...along with being coached along Belichick's coaching tree.

I wouldn't be amazed to see no safety drafted at all.

As a true roaming safety, Markelle Martin is a guy I really like. Didn't get to see him at the combine but hope he can go in his pro day. He's a physical freak and his best days are on the biggest stages.

IMO Martin is the best free safety in the draft and I would take him with our 3rd, 4th or 5th pick. Probably won't drop as far as our 5th despite the injury hampering him at the moment. He could work on his tackling though.

 

[manxman2601]

Barron is a pure strong safety/ Having two Patrick Chungs on our defense would cripple it. Harrison Smith look like a corner with his hip movement and fluidity. I could accept us drafting him if the team feel he can convert to a free safety.

Personally I think you see one of these three taken; Alfonzo Dennard, Trumaine Johnson or Josh Robinson. All project to be able to play safety and also corner on the outside. Great size and length in all of them and Robinson possesses Special Teams value to us also...along with being coached along Belichick's coaching tree.

I wouldn't be amazed to see no safety drafted at all.

As a true roaming safety, Markelle Martin is a guy I really like. Didn't get to see him at the combine but hope he can go in his pro day. He's a physical freak and his best days are on the biggest stages.

IMO Martin is the best free safety in the draft and I would take him with our 3rd, 4th or 5th pick. Probably won't drop as far as our 5th despite the injury hampering him at the moment. He could work on his tackling though.

So you want to take a 3rd round safety over a first rounder to fill our biggest hole? Strange draft logic if you ask me. You clearly haven't seen Barron play if you think he's a strong safety only., he's very good when asked to man the middle of the field - helped Kirkpatrick out more than once.

Matt Bowen @ NFP did an article on evaluating safeties, informative considering he was once an NFL safety himself. Well worth reading in full, but here's some bullet points:

Angles to the ball over speed: Have a safety that runs a 4.5 or a low 4.6? Might raise some questions in Indy at the combine, but when you turn on the tape it is more about angles to the ball.

Barron's intuitivness and ability to make plays on the ball easily compensates for his 4.5 speed.

Range: You want a safety that can get from the middle of the field over the top of vertical route schemes outside of the numbers. This will hurt some prospects who struggle on tape and that gives them the label of an “in the box safety.” Translation: he doesn’t have enough range to play FS on Sundays. Again, don’t base this solely on the stopwatch, because a good safety will break before the ball is even thrown. Instincts and knowledge of the game also are factors.

This is Barron's strongpoint. When you watch him, he actually breaks to the correct sideline before the QB throws the ball.

Understanding concepts: Does a safety know what to expect when aligned in Cover 2, Cover 4, and so on? Does he anticipate route schemes such as the flat-7,4 verticals, flat-slant, etc because of the pre-snap look from the offense. WR splits and formation recognition is important to safeties, and if you see a prospect that is consistently out of position there is an issue. The concepts and schemes only get tougher to understand on Sundays.

Barron chose to go to Alabama because they run complex defenses and he wanted the best preparation for the NFL. He's supposed to be a film room nut too. Understanding complex assignments both from the defensive side and understanding what the offense is doing is something Barron excels at.

I won't fully excerpt everything in the article, but the final categories Bowen lists are these:

Tackling - Barron can on occasion be faulted for taking a bad angle or two, but he is a plus tackler and exceptionally hard hitter

Coverage skills, footwork - His coverage skills are very good. However, his hips are a little tight. But I've seen all but three Alabama games last year and specifically focused on Barron where possible. Only once did the stiffness of his hips let him down and that wasn't entirely his fault.

Playmaking ability: One thing I can pretty much guarantee is that Barron will get plenty of NFL turnovers, either through his ability to force fumbles or his excellent ball skills. Makes some standout interceptions.

Play recognition: - Another slight flaw to his game. He does occasionally bite on play actions but that's correctable. He is superb at anticipating the run and will make tackles for loss - he v rarely misses tackles either.

From all the college game watching I've done this offseason, aside from Luck, RGIII, Trent Richardson and an ILB at Georgia, Mark Barron has been the most impressive and standout player I've seen - hence my obsession.

 

[UK_Pat37]

So you want to take a 3rd round safety over a first rounder to fill our biggest hole? Strange draft logic if you ask me. You clearly haven't seen Barron play if you think he's a strong safety only., he's very good when asked to man the middle of the field - helped Kirkpatrick out more than once.

We will just ahve to agree to disagree on it. I'm not saying he can't do those things but from stuff I've seen he can have very stiff hips, isn't always fluent in his backpedal and transitioning out of it.

You're talking about lining him up next to Chung as a free safety the vast majority of the time and I'm not overly comfortable with having two guys who are more strong safeties for me.

Safety class is massively overrated this year and, when that;'s the case, the top prospect almost always gets over blown. Markelle Martin is the best free safety in terms of coverage skills int he draft imo...I just have questions about his tackling. Very 50-50.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Barron is a pure strong safety/ Having two Patrick Chungs on our defense would cripple it. Harrison Smith look like a corner with his hip movement and fluidity. I could accept us drafting him if the team feel he can convert to a free safety.

Personally I think you see one of these three taken; Alfonzo Dennard, Trumaine Johnson or Josh Robinson. All project to be able to play safety and also corner on the outside. Great size and length in all of them and Robinson possesses Special Teams value to us also...along with being coached along Belichick's coaching tree.

I wouldn't be amazed to see no safety drafted at all.

As a true roaming safety, Markelle Martin is a guy I really like. Didn't get to see him at the combine but hope he can go in his pro day. He's a physical freak and his best days are on the biggest stages.

IMO Martin is the best free safety in the draft and I would take him with our 3rd, 4th or 5th pick. Probably won't drop as far as our 5th despite the injury hampering him at the moment. He could work on his tackling though.

Have you watched Martin play?

 

[UK_Pat37]

Have you watched Martin play?

Yes I have. To expand...this safety cl;ass is poor as hell. If I had it my way, I wouldn't touch any of these guys with a ten foot barge poll. Kenny Vaccaro would have sh*t over this entire draft class and I was praying he'd come out this year. Alas it wasn't to be (I have a huge love affair on this guys play)!

We need a pure cover guy...if we were to take a safety I'd want a pure free safety like Martin. Saying that, I think the Pats take a corner with the length and size to be able to play safety. I always bring the same three names up; Dennard, Trumaine Johnson and Robinson.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Yes I have. To expand...this safety cl;ass is poor as hell. If I had it my way, I wouldn't touch any of these guys with a ten foot barge poll. Kenny Vaccaro would have sh*t over this entire draft class and I was praying he'd come out this year. Alas it wasn't to be (I have a huge love affair on this guys play)!

We need a pure cover guy...if we were to take a safety I'd want a pure free safety like Martin. Saying that, I think the Pats take a corner with the length and size to be able to play safety. I always bring the same three names up; Dennard, Trumaine Johnson and Robinson.

Well then we have different opinions on Martin's game.

I agree on the safety class asa whole, but there are definetly some draftable players. I haven't seen or read anything about Smith, but Barron is going to be good, especially here.

And as far as a pure cover guy, that wouldn't work here. The Pats play left and right safeties, not free and strong. That requires each safety to be well versed against the run and the pass. So that wouldn't work here regardless if Martin is good or not, and it's why I like Barron so much.