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As we officially enter the free agent season (well the legal tampering period) and look to the draft, I had some thoughts on acquiring players.
All free agent and draft acquisitions are risks. They are successes less than half of the time. And low-level free agents and draftees are simply shots in the dark, hoping for a contributor.
Yet, every perceived failure is lambasted on the board. I have little respect for this hindsight approach. I do greatly respect those like DI who strongly state their opinions when the players are acquired (e.g Adrian Wilson).
The patriots seem to have a strategy to sign players at a discount who have injury histories, medical histories and legal issues. These players are even less likely to succeed, but the cost is less and the reward greater.
I have a few ideas that I try to use in evaluation.
1) Evaluate the acquisition at the time. What is the expected value? Is the player worth the resources?
2) When reviewing in hindsight, IGNORE any injuries. Obviously, the team would not have chosen a player if they knew he were going to be injured.
3) Evaluate ongoing decisions going forward based on the situation AT THAT TIME. As may point out, it makes zero difference when a player was drafted when making a current decision on a player. Tavon Wilson is a player with a cost and a contract. How he got here is irrelevant at this point. If Wilson is worth keeping as a special teamer and backup safety at this contract, then we should keep him. It makes little difference that we expected more.
4) OTBE, favor re-signing players to acquiring them. Many great players take time to fit in, and sometimes never do. There is great value knowing what a player can produce. the reduced uncertainty is worth a lot.
5) Avoid top priced free agents from other teams whenever possible. The risk is simply too great. Obviously, the team has occasions where this is necessary (like when you can't find any other way to acquire a strong safety after many tries).
6) The draft is the backbone of any acquisition strategy. The draft is to acquire future producers, so we should focus on value rather than immediate need. Rookie contributions are gravy for players after pick 16, although we often do have rookies who contribute. The exception comes when we go into the draft with a specific current year need. In that case, double dipping is sometimes necessary. Also, sometimes OL's are drafted in the late first or second and expected to start immediately. For example, in the present draft, we need a TE. This is a good TE year, so the match is fine. In other years, we needed a safety in a bad year for safeties. This is also a good year for mid-round OTs, another good match.
All free agent and draft acquisitions are risks. They are successes less than half of the time. And low-level free agents and draftees are simply shots in the dark, hoping for a contributor.
Yet, every perceived failure is lambasted on the board. I have little respect for this hindsight approach. I do greatly respect those like DI who strongly state their opinions when the players are acquired (e.g Adrian Wilson).
The patriots seem to have a strategy to sign players at a discount who have injury histories, medical histories and legal issues. These players are even less likely to succeed, but the cost is less and the reward greater.
I have a few ideas that I try to use in evaluation.
1) Evaluate the acquisition at the time. What is the expected value? Is the player worth the resources?
2) When reviewing in hindsight, IGNORE any injuries. Obviously, the team would not have chosen a player if they knew he were going to be injured.
3) Evaluate ongoing decisions going forward based on the situation AT THAT TIME. As may point out, it makes zero difference when a player was drafted when making a current decision on a player. Tavon Wilson is a player with a cost and a contract. How he got here is irrelevant at this point. If Wilson is worth keeping as a special teamer and backup safety at this contract, then we should keep him. It makes little difference that we expected more.
4) OTBE, favor re-signing players to acquiring them. Many great players take time to fit in, and sometimes never do. There is great value knowing what a player can produce. the reduced uncertainty is worth a lot.
5) Avoid top priced free agents from other teams whenever possible. The risk is simply too great. Obviously, the team has occasions where this is necessary (like when you can't find any other way to acquire a strong safety after many tries).
6) The draft is the backbone of any acquisition strategy. The draft is to acquire future producers, so we should focus on value rather than immediate need. Rookie contributions are gravy for players after pick 16, although we often do have rookies who contribute. The exception comes when we go into the draft with a specific current year need. In that case, double dipping is sometimes necessary. Also, sometimes OL's are drafted in the late first or second and expected to start immediately. For example, in the present draft, we need a TE. This is a good TE year, so the match is fine. In other years, we needed a safety in a bad year for safeties. This is also a good year for mid-round OTs, another good match.
