Taking another look at the cap situation for next season.

[patfanken]

The sad news concerning the end of Sebastian Volmer's season got me thinking about next year's cap situation and the ramifications of recent events.

Going into this season, it was clear that we would have a ton of cap room (roughly around $65MM). Correct me if I'm wrong, but that number could rise even higher if we rollover some or all of the $9MM we are under right now. We also had a ton of FA's to sign to fairly big money deals, so most of that cap room was likely to be absorbed signing up key core players to new deals.

Well, recent events have drastically thinned that list of FA signings, or at least changed the priorities of who is likely to be back. Gone are Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Looking less interesting is Jabal Sheard, Volmer, and Chris Long.

I guess what I'm saying is that, most fans were thinking that the vast cap room would be used to sign our own guys, while now it looks like we will have more than enough money to pay those who are left when the dust of this season comes to rest, plus be a pretty big player in the open market for other people's stars.

The Purpose of this thread is to consider the "new reality" of the consequences of the Jones/Collins trades, the Sheard demotion, etc and rethink the priorities of the coming FA season. Who to sign from our group and who to go after.

BTW- I'm not sure who exactly are going to be FA's next season. But this would be my priority list.

1. Danta Hightower - When the time came, BB got Mayo on to his 2nd contract, and he will do the same with Danta. But I bet he is watching closely to see how High responds to the adversity of losing Collins, and Sheard's demotion. But in the end the Pats will work out a deal that will make High one of the top 5 highest paid LB's in the league.

2. Marty Bennett - I thought this was going to be a one year rental, but now there is room to pay him, if he wants to stay. No matter how good he's played he's still going to be 30 next season, so top dollar is not going to be necessary. He's currently making $5MM/yr. I'd be comfortable giving him a healthy raise to $7MM/yr for 3 years, and then try to find another Derby to fit in as your 3rd guy. Marty just wants to be where he is appreciated. I don't see some other teams willing to go to $8MM for him/

3. Malcolm Butler - This is hard, because the thing is, you really don't HAVE to pay him. By giving him a first round tender, you already give him a very healthy raise, that is unlikely to be matched by another team. Butler has proven to be well worth a big money extention, but the cold fact is, why do it when you don't have to. It's not like he'd be making what he is this season, I don't know what the first round tender requires, but I'm sure it will be in the multiple millions.....just not 10.

4. Logan Ryan - He is better by far than most people here think, at least in my opinion. He's not a great NFL CB, merely a very good one. I have no idea what the market will be for "very good" CB's. But I'd certainly try amd make him a priority. Not only does he do a nice job in coverage, he an excellent tackler and most important, DEPENDABLE - He's always available to play. I'm thinking something long term in the $5-7MM range is where the Pats market will be. What he'll be offered might be more. I'd be OK with that 5-7 range.

5. Gronk - I think he needs to be extended, even with the injuries. He is just THAT impactful to this offense. Still he is under contract until the end of the 2019 season at some fairly big money, so I don't know what he'd be looking for. His base salary in 2019 is already $9MM

OK - That's should get the conversation started and hopefully add some more intelligent observations than my, off the cuff, thoughts.

 

[farn]

Surprised at how things have shaken down. HT and Butler are my 1a, 1b. MB at TE is a great pick up but how much $ is BB willing to part with for a 30 year old ?

He does seem to like Ryan more than most here. Hope he comes cheap.

Maybe that extra cash can build depth in the form of solid vets looking to win after a career of making $ without playing in the post season.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

The sad news concerning the end of Sebastian Volmer's season got me thinking about next year's cap situation and the ramifications of recent events.

Going into this season, it was clear that we would have a ton of cap room (roughly around $65MM). Correct me if I'm wrong, but that number could rise even higher if we rollover some or all of the $9MM we are under right now. We also had a ton of FA's to sign to fairly big money deals, so most of that cap room was likely to be absorbed signing up key core players to new deals.

Well, recent events have drastically thinned that list of FA signings, or at least changed the priorities of who is likely to be back. Gone are Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Looking less interesting is Jabal Sheard, Volmer, and Chris Long.

I guess what I'm saying is that, most fans were thinking that the vast cap room would be used to sign our own guys, while now it looks like we will have more than enough money to pay those who are left when the dust of this season comes to rest, plus be a pretty big player in the open market for other people's stars.

The Purpose of this thread is to consider the "new reality" of the consequences of the Jones/Collins trades, the Sheard demotion, etc and rethink the priorities of the coming FA season. Who to sign from our group and who to go after.

BTW- I'm not sure who exactly are going to be FA's next season. But this would be my priority list.

1. Danta Hightower - When the time came, BB got Mayo on to his 2nd contract, and he will do the same with Danta. But I bet he is watching closely to see how High responds to the adversity of losing Collins, and Sheard's demotion. But in the end the Pats will work out a deal that will make High one of the top 5 highest paid LB's in the league.

2. Marty Bennett - I thought this was going to be a one year rental, but now there is room to pay him, if he wants to stay. No matter how good he's played he's still going to be 30 next season, so top dollar is not going to be necessary. He's currently making $5MM/yr. I'd be comfortable giving him a healthy raise to $7MM/yr for 3 years, and then try to find another Derby to fit in as your 3rd guy. Marty just wants to be where he is appreciated. I don't see some other teams willing to go to $8MM for him/

3. Malcolm Butler - This is hard, because the thing is, you really don't HAVE to pay him. By giving him a first round tender, you already give him a very healthy raise, that is unlikely to be matched by another team. Butler has proven to be well worth a big money extention, but the cold fact is, why do it when you don't have to. It's not like he'd be making what he is this season, I don't know what the first round tender requires, but I'm sure it will be in the multiple millions.....just not 10.

4. Logan Ryan - He is better by far than most people here think, at least in my opinion. He's not a great NFL CB, merely a very good one. I have no idea what the market will be for "very good" CB's. But I'd certainly try amd make him a priority. Not only does he do a nice job in coverage, he an excellent tackler and most important, DEPENDABLE - He's always available to play. I'm thinking something long term in the $5-7MM range is where the Pats market will be. What he'll be offered might be more. I'd be OK with that 5-7 range.

5. Gronk - I think he needs to be extended, even with the injuries. He is just THAT impactful to this offense. Still he is under contract until the end of the 2019 season at some fairly big money, so I don't know what he'd be looking for. His base salary in 2019 is already $9MM

OK - That's should get the conversation started and hopefully add some more intelligent observations than my, off the cuff, thoughts.

Great post!

I agree about Hightower, I think they will give him whatever it takes to keep him here honestly because hes that important to the defense. I don't think it will be top 5, I think he has a shot at being #2, or possibly even #1 for MLB pay. I hope Hightower shows mercy on us, but I won't hold my breath.. They could use the franchise tag if necessary

With Bennett, if they can't get a 2-3 year deal done with him they could possibly use the franchise tag, since it would only be like $7-8 million a year to secure him for 1 more season.. or at least to buy more time to get a deal done

With Butler, I think if you answer the question of "Is this a guy we can rely on long term to compete at a very high level week in and week out" with a Yes, then you absolutely sign him right now and get him extended so you can lock him up and not worry about it anymore.. but if there is any hesitation on answering with that Yes, then it may make sense to tender him at a 1st round pick and have him battle it out and prove his worth for another year

I agree about Ryan, I think he gets a bad rap sometimes when he's really a pretty solid CB that will get paid nicely in free agency.. I don't know if I'd want to pay him a lot as a CB2, but it all depends on what he asks for.. I mean, Chris Harris is a #2 CB with a nice contract, but hes a borderline elite CB opposite of Talib who is their #1 CB and is also elite.. I don't put Ryan in Harris territory, so I would anticipate some team overpaying for him in free agency unfortunately... Cyrus Jones really needs to step it up next year and live up to his 2nd round draft status.. they're relying on him to be the next Logan Ryan on a rookie salary

Not sure what the deal with Sheard is, but he's certainly not looking like hes a part of the future look on defense when hes being left behind as an inactive on game day.. so for the purposes of this thread, i'll presume that will continue and they won't retain him..

That leaves Chris Long, who has not really lived up to his salary at all.. and they aren't even paying him all that much as a RE.. but hes been virtually invisible in most games, and hes 30+ years old so I could see them moving on from him

Other guys they'll need to make some interesting decisions on are;
Marcus Cannon - His best year to date, hes definitely a legit RT this year.. whether that's due to Dante, or to him being healthy, or a combination of those things... if they're confident he can keep this level of play up, they should pay him what Vollmer was making and lock him up for at least 3 more years.. and I cant even believe I'm saying that because I was super jaded by Cannon after last year and coming into this season! Vollmer is done as the starting RT for this team.. I hope they bring him back on a hugely reduced deal for like 1-2 years as a backup Olineman/Swing Tackle, but his days of getting paid as a true RT are over.. Cannon will need that money now

Duron Harmon - He's pretty good.. he can play the true FS role and cover the entire field.. he doesn't have quite as much range as McCourty, but he can play that role and allow them to move McCourty around in man to man coverage or whever... Unfortunately I see another FS needy team (and there are a lot of them) paying him more than we can match given that we're already paying McCourty, so they will probably have to try and draft his replacement or get a cheaper FA

Blount - He's 30, but I would give him a 2 year deal and pay him double what he's making now.. Other teams will be weary because of his stint with Pittsburgh, and I think he really likes playing here so if they give him something reasonable he would stay with us.. its crazy that he's playing as a true RB1 this year and is on pace for like 1400 yards.. I didn't view him as a true starting RB and more as a roleplayer/backup/goal line specialist guy... but he's certainly proved me wrong this year, I really hope he can keep it up.. but I think the team as a whole spent more time emphasizing the run as well, so its also the Oline that has helped improve the ground game, but Blount has been incredible this year

Alan Branch - What do you pay this guy? He's obviously at the point in the drug program where he will be suspended for a full year on his next failed test.. hes 31 years old.. but he's playing out of his mind this year... What do you pay a guy like that? I don't know.. but I wouldn't do a deal longer than 2 years, they need to be targeting a younger replacement for him via the draft or FA


A few other random guys that shouldn't break the bank if they want to keep them are Mingo and Develin


None of this matters anyway and the mods can delete this thread, because "The Cap Is Crap"

 

[TB_Helmet]

I am so clueless WRT how the cap works. Would love to see Miguel weigh in on this thread.

 

[nabwong]

Devils advocate. Suppose they like a kicker in the draft. What are the implications for trading or cutting gost?

 

[long distance]

One aspect of Collins trade that was written off by most is .. that a combo of big FA group and big cap space .. in BB's math could mean the opposite of expected .. net + in coming/going FAs .. making Collins's 2018 comp pick (automatically projected at the time) a true ?.

It will be interesting to see how the math of two BB's philosophies adds up - 1. sign only a handful of high contracts and lots of middle and esp. low contracts for big depth; 2. try to come out with net minus FA signed to get a comp. pick.

I guess it would be reasonable to expect more extensions to mid/low-range contracts (like they already did with Slater, Ninko, Freeny). We're all looking at High, Bennett, Sheard (less now) .. and forget that they'd probably like to get one more year of Blount, Bolden, Develin etc .. so the guys that will not be expensive and they really like. That would make less FA's leave and more cap remaining for FA's from elsewhere to sign.

Id guess they keep High, Bennett and tender Butler. Because Id like that.
They extend most of low-range FAs Blount, Bolden, Develin, Scruggs, Long, Mingo (backup LB/STer money).
They extend some of mid-range FAs: Ryan, Harmon, Cannon. Id go with the later two if Cannon keeps it up.
As it stands now they pass on Sheard and Branch.

So with Vollmer probably retiring there might be just 3-5 FAs leaving and with the money they have they might be signing more from outside although trades will also come into play.

It will be busy free agency and Id expect they'd go heavy and deep on DT, DE, LB (trade very possible for one of this as well) - positions that didn't work out so well this year and will be difficult to draft with low-round picks.

Ironically maybe the biggest FA signing (besides High) comes from the outside ..

 

[BelichickFan]

Devils advocate. Suppose they like a kicker in the draft. What are the implications for trading or cutting gost?

Assuming I read pstscap.com correctly, it would be a $3M hit but overall $960 K savings (before factoring in replacement kicker). So we'd come out relatively even.

 

[long distance]

I see Gost seeing BB & TB to late retirement ..

 

[deroc5050]

Well I thought they were rebuilding there young defense, they invested a lot of 1st and 2nd rounders on the defense.

Butler priority
Hightower Priority

You cant pay everyone. I like Marty Bennet but he has been hurt this year unfortunately so its hard to project a bit with him. I would sign him for a 2 year deal worth up to 8 million a season.

I would not sign blount, 30 year old power running backs don't usually work out so well. I would move on from Blount and draft a guy in the 4th round if you can.

Logan Ryan looks to be a guy you might want to keep around seeing as Cyrus Jones may not be good enough to play CB.

I think there is going to be major roster turn over.. I don't really like what BB did with Jones and Collins. You invest heavily on defense just to give it away. More so with Collins than Jones. Jones at least you got a 2nd rounder.. but at the cost of no pressure on the QB this season which has a butterfly effect of no turn overs.
This is going to be a very active off season for better or for worse.

 

[mgteich]

I'd add Harmon and Blount to the priority list. Also, I think that we will try to sign Long.

The sad news concerning the end of Sebastian Volmer's season got me thinking about next year's cap situation and the ramifications of recent events.

Going into this season, it was clear that we would have a ton of cap room (roughly around $65MM). Correct me if I'm wrong, but that number could rise even higher if we rollover some or all of the $9MM we are under right now. We also had a ton of FA's to sign to fairly big money deals, so most of that cap room was likely to be absorbed signing up key core players to new deals.

Well, recent events have drastically thinned that list of FA signings, or at least changed the priorities of who is likely to be back. Gone are Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Looking less interesting is Jabal Sheard, Volmer, and Chris Long.

I guess what I'm saying is that, most fans were thinking that the vast cap room would be used to sign our own guys, while now it looks like we will have more than enough money to pay those who are left when the dust of this season comes to rest, plus be a pretty big player in the open market for other people's stars.

The Purpose of this thread is to consider the "new reality" of the consequences of the Jones/Collins trades, the Sheard demotion, etc and rethink the priorities of the coming FA season. Who to sign from our group and who to go after.

BTW- I'm not sure who exactly are going to be FA's next season. But this would be my priority list.

1. Danta Hightower - When the time came, BB got Mayo on to his 2nd contract, and he will do the same with Danta. But I bet he is watching closely to see how High responds to the adversity of losing Collins, and Sheard's demotion. But in the end the Pats will work out a deal that will make High one of the top 5 highest paid LB's in the league.

2. Marty Bennett - I thought this was going to be a one year rental, but now there is room to pay him, if he wants to stay. No matter how good he's played he's still going to be 30 next season, so top dollar is not going to be necessary. He's currently making $5MM/yr. I'd be comfortable giving him a healthy raise to $7MM/yr for 3 years, and then try to find another Derby to fit in as your 3rd guy. Marty just wants to be where he is appreciated. I don't see some other teams willing to go to $8MM for him/

3. Malcolm Butler - This is hard, because the thing is, you really don't HAVE to pay him. By giving him a first round tender, you already give him a very healthy raise, that is unlikely to be matched by another team. Butler has proven to be well worth a big money extention, but the cold fact is, why do it when you don't have to. It's not like he'd be making what he is this season, I don't know what the first round tender requires, but I'm sure it will be in the multiple millions.....just not 10.

4. Logan Ryan - He is better by far than most people here think, at least in my opinion. He's not a great NFL CB, merely a very good one. I have no idea what the market will be for "very good" CB's. But I'd certainly try amd make him a priority. Not only does he do a nice job in coverage, he an excellent tackler and most important, DEPENDABLE - He's always available to play. I'm thinking something long term in the $5-7MM range is where the Pats market will be. What he'll be offered might be more. I'd be OK with that 5-7 range.

5. Gronk - I think he needs to be extended, even with the injuries. He is just THAT impactful to this offense. Still he is under contract until the end of the 2019 season at some fairly big money, so I don't know what he'd be looking for. His base salary in 2019 is already $9MM

OK - That's should get the conversation started and hopefully add some more intelligent observations than my, off the cuff, thoughts.

 

[skinnydog]

I'm not seeing how we keep Bennet. Someone will overpay him.

 

[BobDigital]

I will repost some of what I did in the draft thread with some new thoughts.

To me this has become a year of rebuilding the D more than signing guys our own guys. We need to rebuild the D but also we don't want to entirely start over. Here is the cap situation.

Pats cut McCellin saving 1.5M & Extend/Restructure Amendola saving 4.5M.

Lets assume the Pats have 75M. Take out 10M for draft picks and emergency fund so 65M

Defense

Hightower 11M/yr (5 year)
Ryan 4M/y (2 year)
Long 2M/y (2 year)
Branch 3M/y (2 years)
Mingo 1M/y (2 year)

Offense

Bennett 7M/y (3 year)
Cannon 5M/y (2 year) or 7M 1 year "show me" deal.
Develin 1M/y (2 year)
Blount 1M/y (1 year)

Let Sheard and Harmon walk (unfortunately.

So that is 35M with 40M more to spend and the team would look like this. For FAs i get the D some help.

Kawann Short DT 9M - Maye the best defensive FA who will actually see free agency. They need pass rush from the interior.
Calais Campbell DE/DT 6M - We will need to draft a pass rusher but this guy reminds me of a poor man's Seymour. You can play a 3-4 or 4-3 with him which Bill would like.
Zach Brown LB 5M - Someone to start opposite Hightower in a fairly weak FA class but he would be a solid starter.
Melvin Ingram - DE 6M - You need pass rush help and maybe it is him or Petty but I want them to bring in a DE and draft one.

Also even with all these moves you have 14M left to spend at least. Maybe let Ryan walk and bring in another CB? I like Captain Munnerlyn of The Vikings personally.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

From PFF for another pov. *NOTE* The Butler grade is for the year so far. So they have him as the #2 guy behind Talib. Who in hindsight we probably should have signed. Him and Butler would be a force.

Anyway the other grades are from last week only. But Cannon has been playing well all year. We all no that but at least recently they seem to agree as well.


2. Malcolm Butler, New England Patriots, 86.4
Outside of Talib, there really hasn’t been a corner that has been consistently “shutdown,” but Malcolm Butler has had a fine season, outside of a couple of lapses. Against Miami back in Week 2, he surrendered 157 receiving yards, and he coughed up another 94 against Pittsburgh; beyond those games, he has given up 35 yards or fewer on six of his eight outings, and over the entire season, has allowed just 52.9 percent of passes into his coverage to be caught, despite occasionally being asked to track elite receivers.


Slot cornerback: Logan Ryan, New England Patriots, 87.2

Coming off easily his worst game of the season, Patriots cornerback Logan Ryan had easily his best outing in Week 11. Going from the passing attacks of Seattle to San Francisco was surely a factor, but the fact remains that Ryan allowed just 7 receiving yards this week from five targets, breaking up two passes and only allowing one to be caught by the intended receiver.


Right tackle: Marcus Cannon, New England Patriots, 84.1

Marcus Cannon had a fine game against the 49ers this week. In 47 pass-blocking snaps, he allowed just one hurry, and while he hasn’t had any perfect pass-protection games this season, he has come close; this if the fourth game in a row that Cannon hasn’t surrendered a sack or hit. Against the 49ers, he also run blocked extremely well, overpowering the 49ers’ defense in what has become a trend for that team this season.

 

[Gumby]

The sad news concerning the end of Sebastian Volmer's season got me thinking about next year's cap situation and the ramifications of recent events.

Going into this season, it was clear that we would have a ton of cap room (roughly around $65MM). .....

1. Danta Hightower - ....work out a deal that will make High one of the top 5 highest paid LB's in the league.

2. Marty Bennett - ... I don't see some other teams willing to go to $8MM for him/

3. Malcolm Butler - .... I don't know what the first round tender requires, but I'm sure it will be in the multiple millions.....just not 10.

4. Logan Ryan - . ....I'd be OK with that 5-7 range.

5. Gronk - I think he needs to be extended, even with the injuries. ....

OK - That's should get the conversation started and hopefully add some more intelligent observations than my, off the cuff, thoughts.

GENERAL: the downturn in ratings for nyjfl may have an impact on the hereto fore bankable annual +10M to the League cap # that many other teams plan into their spending. BB may be more conservative with that $65-74M space (for next year -+ w/ remainder this year) than many posters here would like. He is conservative with a known expanding cap, so i can imagine him being more so with a cap that possibly could even go backwards. I am not sure how-long/when the Media contracts go thru/expire, so this 'concern' may be a year early.

I'm ok with your 1, 2, 4.

3. Butler is very young, very good, and appears to have the right attitude (no Public complaints about not already being "Shown the money"). Pats have made it to the big Show with a cast of Schlubs (Earthwind anyone) in the secondary before. But everyone has to agree WINNING the big show is critically dependent on decent to good cb play. (Butler int sealing Win / asante freelancing costing game). That is particularly true under the Polian rules where BB cant mask bad cb play by 5-yard chucks. I think you pay him more than simply enough to secure his rights (2 firsts), and lock him up for a longer term 1 year earlier than absolutely necessary. Use that good will to secure years on the back end with optional out-year bonuses protecting from some horrendous falloff/careerending injury. I could see going to 10.

5 (re: 2). i like the idea, but would just make Gronk Priority C. Securing Bennett is much more important IMO. Someone else complained about Bennett being injured, you noted Gronks injuries. To some extent that is the nature of the TE Position in THIS team/TODAY's Nyjfl. The TEs will get beat up and miss a few games. But they overlap each other when one out, and make the O ultra-dynamic when both are there (which is hopefully health-managed for the playoffs). I think is critical to have a Gronk-Jr on the Team. So do the other deals particularly FAs (fix D), then you can look next late-Aug -to- bye-week timeframe to extend Gronk once you know what you have left to play with.

 

[mikey m]

I will repost some of what I did in the draft thread with some new thoughts.

To me this has become a year of rebuilding the D more than signing guys our own guys. We need to rebuild the D but also we don't want to entirely start over. Here is the cap situation.

Pats cut McCellin saving 1.5M & Extend/Restructure Amendola saving 4.5M.

Lets assume the Pats have 75M. Take out 10M for draft picks and emergency fund so 65M

Defense

Hightower 11M/yr (5 year)
Ryan 4M/y (2 year)
Long 2M/y (2 year)
Branch 3M/y (2 years)
Mingo 1M/y (2 year)

Offense

Bennett 7M/y (3 year)
Cannon 5M/y (2 year) or 7M 1 year "show me" deal.
Develin 1M/y (2 year)
Blount 1M/y (1 year)

Let Sheard and Harmon walk (unfortunately.

So that is 35M with 40M more to spend and the team would look like this. For FAs i get the D some help.

Kawann Short DT 9M - Maye the best defensive FA who will actually see free agency. They need pass rush from the interior.
Calais Campbell DE/DT 6M - We will need to draft a pass rusher but this guy reminds me of a poor man's Seymour. You can play a 3-4 or 4-3 with him which Bill would like.
Zach Brown LB 5M - Someone to start opposite Hightower in a fairly weak FA class but he would be a solid starter.
Melvin Ingram - DE 6M - You need pass rush help and maybe it is him or Petty but I want them to bring in a DE and draft one.

Also even with all these moves you have 14M left to spend at least. Maybe let Ryan walk and bring in another CB? I like Captain Munnerlyn of The Vikings personally.

Like. But what did you do with the Butler?

 

[luuked]

One aspect of Collins trade that was written off by most is .. that a combo of big FA group and big cap space .. in BB's math could mean the opposite of expected .. net + in coming/going FAs .. making Collins's 2018 comp pick (automatically projected at the time) a true ?.

Been saying this for some time now. Playing the compensatory picks game is nice because it can give you free picks but it also severely limits your flexibility to be involved in the first week(s) of FA.

Given the amount of cap space we have there is going to be some kind of move during FA. The rosters i'd watch most are either division rivals or teams we recently shared practices with. Those are the players we know particularly well and I could see BB & co. being comfortable giving out "bugger" FA contracts.

 

[Addictive]

My priorities for off season extensions:

Hightower - becoming the leader in the locker room and the defence

Butler - after years of watching sieve like DBs for the Patriots it is great to watch a player with tenacity and a chip on his shoulder.

Bennett - either franchise or work out a two/three contract which is pays him well but is still a little home town discount. Playing Bennett and Gronk together is complimentary and compounds an opponents difficulties in defence, you can't match up well with two outstanding Tight Ends. The mismatches and blocking they create produce open catches for other receivers. I think we haven't seen the best this season of what our two Tight Ends can produce.

Cannon - he has improved this season which is beyond doubt and the in-house solution is likely better than what is available on the open market.

Mingo - We need to see what type of player he can become. He is showing promise on the ST and while he is never going to live up to being the sixth overall player in the draft he could become a complimentary player for us.

After those essential players are taken care of I would look to see what is on the free agent market to fill our needs.

I think Branch is probably gone next season. I doubt BB will pay Branch what his agents wants and the failed drugs test leaves him with a potential long term suspension to come. This is just not the way the Patriots operate.

I'm interested to see what will happen with our running back situation. After Maroney its unlikely we'll ever take a RB in the 1st round and at some point Blount is going to likely experience a steep decline. It happens with all RBs due to the position they play. Is Gaffney the answer?

Harmon, Ryan, Long are all players I'd like to see return but they might value getting paid over extending their careers with the Patriots and it's hard to argue with that as they won't be the team's first priority.

 

[AHoodieWorshipperInParis]

It would be fun to place the 1st-round tender on Malcolm and dare the Jets to surrender their first, which will be a top 8-10 pick. They might be that dumb . And for even more fun, you can sign Darrelle Revis to a decent contract after they cut him loose, and make him good again (it would be a long shot, but if his 2016 slump is only about motivation, who knows... ).

The loss of Malcolm would really hurt but I'm sure we could trade that top10 pick back and still get a Marcus Peters-caliber CB at the end of the first round in a deep defensive draft (5 years of rookie contract vs maybe 10+M$ AAVG for Malcolm).

Well, it would be safer to get a deal done with Malcolm IRL

 

[long distance]

I will repost some of what I did in the draft thread with some new thoughts.

To me this has become a year of rebuilding the D more than signing guys our own guys. We need to rebuild the D but also we don't want to entirely start over. Here is the cap situation.

Pats cut McCellin saving 1.5M & Extend/Restructure Amendola saving 4.5M.

Lets assume the Pats have 75M. Take out 10M for draft picks and emergency fund so 65M

Defense

Hightower 11M/yr (5 year)
Ryan 4M/y (2 year)
Long 2M/y (2 year)
Branch 3M/y (2 years)
Mingo 1M/y (2 year)

Offense

Bennett 7M/y (3 year)
Cannon 5M/y (2 year) or 7M 1 year "show me" deal.
Develin 1M/y (2 year)
Blount 1M/y (1 year)

Let Sheard and Harmon walk (unfortunately.

So that is 35M with 40M more to spend and the team would look like this. For FAs i get the D some help.

Kawann Short DT 9M - Maye the best defensive FA who will actually see free agency. They need pass rush from the interior.
Calais Campbell DE/DT 6M - We will need to draft a pass rusher but this guy reminds me of a poor man's Seymour. You can play a 3-4 or 4-3 with him which Bill would like.
Zach Brown LB 5M - Someone to start opposite Hightower in a fairly weak FA class but he would be a solid starter.
Melvin Ingram - DE 6M - You need pass rush help and maybe it is him or Petty but I want them to bring in a DE and draft one.

Also even with all these moves you have 14M left to spend at least. Maybe let Ryan walk and bring in another CB? I like Captain Munnerlyn of The Vikings personally.

Nice list .. but more of a fantasy.
1. BB will not compete in the first days of FA. He knows there are lots of fish in the pond.
The FAs you like and most people like and most of the league likes will end up elswhere more than likely.
2. Most teams will try to keep most of their FAs they like and they will have a certain advantage. There are many more teams with enough to spend next year.
3. A lot still depends on how the year plays out at certain positions.

Id guess its more likely bringing in a big signing in trade not through FA. Less competition there, better business. Guys along the lines of Revis, Bennett, Hogan, Hicks ..

 

[PP2]

I'm not seeing how we keep Bennet. Someone will overpay him.

Unlikely that he leaves. He really likes it here. This is a place that appreciates his high IQ and recognizes all the small things he does in a game to ensure victory.