Steve McIntyre blog

[Bobsyouruncle]

BTW- McIntyre has now done 3 more articles of the sort of excruciatingly detailed analysis he's known for and they are quite good, especially the last.

http://climateaudit.org/2015/07/03/ruling-out-high-deflation-scenarios/

Remarkably, for Non-Logo initialization, the only manual deflation that is not precluded are amounts equal (within uncertainty) to the inter-gauge bias of ~0.38 psi. Precisely why Patriots would have deflated balls by an amount almost exactly equal to the bias between referee Anderson’s gauges is a bizarre coincidence, to say the least. I think that one can safely say that it is “more probable than not” that referee Anderson used the Logo gauge than that such an implausible coincidence.

Again, from a statistical and data analysis perspective, I believe that the most troubling aspect of Exponent’s technical report was their false claim to knowledge on points that remain indeterminate. (Actually, I started my own analysis with their statistical “model” which I haven’t written about, but it is appallingly bad data analysis. It’s so bad as to be uninteresting in respect to determining what happened. But I should really write it up purely as an exercise in bad statistics – especially since it touches on random effects models, a technique that I’ve written about on many occasions and about which I’m knowledgeable.)

http://climateaudit.org/2015/06/29/exponents-transients-bodge-or-botch/

http://climateaudit.org/2015/06/28/the-referees-over-inflated-patriot-balls/

 

[ViperGTS]

The text messages are such a red herring and yet that seems to be the smoking guns to most idiots. There are 3 texts that have some version of the word deflate (deflator, deflating and deflat) but Wells mentions them 23 times! He also mixes the sequence of the texts to make them appear more consistent when in fact they are 5 months apart from the first and second and 6 weeks between second and third texts. Some long running, nefarious conspiracy.

The first one is in May 2014 during the offseason. There was zero talk of footballs.
The second is in reference to TB being so pissed off that the balls were inflated to 16 psi during the Oct 17, 2015 Jets game.
The third ("deflat and give someone that jkt") that has been synchronized to the exact time when Jastremski is shown on the Pats sidelines during the Nov 30, 2015 GB game walking around with a jacket (jkt) looking to give it to someone.

That's like connecting 3 random dots on a page and coming up with the Mona Lisa.

To me, the Jets game is the smoking gun for the Brady exonerators. You hear "I think it's been going on for a long time" "Years probably". Yet why was he b*tching about them being 16 in a HOME game. Where was the "deflator" then?

There is no logic to these arguments. The league and it's mediots have been backed into a corner. They have no solid argument scientifically or otherwise. They are now manipulating things that cannot be and selling that as the truth.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

To me, the Jets game is the smoking gun for the Brady exonerators. You hear "I think it's been going on for a long time" "Years probably". Yet why was he b*tching about them being 16 in a HOME game. Where was the "deflator" then?

There is no logic to these arguments. The league and it's mediots have been backed into a corner. They have no solid argument scientifically or otherwise. They are now manipulating things that cannot be and selling that as the truth.

Yes they have, and have been getting away with it, that's the crime. The twisting of these facts by the haters and the Felgers is just mind boggling.

 

[scott99]

This is where Kraft needs to step up and demand his apology and end this fiasco OR sue the league for defamation! If the Pats can show via science that their was no deflation and the league's malice towards the Pats they could win. But even the very threat of such a lawsuit should make Goodell back down, because if he and the league lost it, then he would surely be toast!!

Kraft is a ****y, there isn't gonna be any stepping up or any move on his part whatsoever. I doubt him or team officials even know or care about this blog. They've taken their punishment as if they are guilty, for the greater good of the NFL (and their pockets) and there will be no backtracking. Kraft has been already raped by the NFL and isn't reporting it to be the police (pardon the analogy).

Kraft has already show his true colors, and will continue to kiss Goodell's ass until Kraft hands the team to his son. There is no fight in Krafty Bob. All of this barking about demanding an apology and fighting this went out the window after Kraft and Goodells make out session during the owners meetings.

 

[flasox27]

Kraft is a *****, there isn't gonna be any stepping up or any move on his part whatsoever. I doubt him or team officials even know or care about this blog. They've taken their punishment as if they are guilty, for the greater good of the NFL (and their pockets) and there will be no backtracking. Kraft has been already raped by the NFL and isn't reporting it to be the police (pardon the analogy).

Kraft has already show his true colors, and will continue to kiss Goodell's ass until Kraft hands the team to his son. There is no fight in Krafty Bob. All of this barking about demanding an apology and fighting this went out the window after Kraft and Goodells make out session during the owners meetings.

Absolutely correct,sir. The impotent Kraft was told by his superiors in the fraternity to bend over and take his punishment and he willingly obliged. He then was allowed to to go play with his "girlfriend".

 

[BlueThunder]

One has to wonder when the reins of the Patriots get turned over to Jonathan......and does he have bigger gonads than his dad.......

 

[BTTA]

One has to wonder when the reins of the Patriots get turned over to Jonathan......and does he have bigger gonads than his dad.......

Been thinking about this, too, ever since cameragate.

There are two levels of this: management, and ownership. I wonder if the NFL administration or other owners will care at all about what Jonathan says or thinks until he actually owns the team. He'll probably get a little more credit when Bob steps away from representing the team, but until he's completely gone, the administration and owners will always think they can go to Daddy for an override if they don't like what Junior is doing.

 

[BlueThunder]

I have NO idea what kind of owner Jonathan will be......have to be careful what us fans wish for....

 

[shmessy]

I have NO idea what kind of owner Jonathan will be......have to be careful what us fans wish for....

Exactly.

People who have met him have said he is not as "warm and fuzzy" as Robert - - more of a shark-like lawyer.

 

[flasox27]

Exactly.

People who have met him have said he is not as "warm and fuzzy" as Robert - - more of a shark-like lawyer.

We have seen how well warm and fuzzy has worked for us in 2007 and now. I think an owner that actually gives a crap about his team and its fans rather than his fraternity brothers would be a welcome change.

 

[NashuaPats]

"Remarkably, for Non-Logo initialization, the only manual deflation that is not precluded are amounts equal (within uncertainty) to the inter-gauge bias of ~0.38 psi. Precisely why Patriots would have deflated balls by an amount almost exactly equal to the bias between referee Anderson’s gauges is a bizarre coincidence, to say the least. I think that one can safely say that it is “more probable than not” that referee Anderson used the Logo gauge than that such an implausible coincidence."

This cannot be repeated enough times. The accusation is that the Patriots deflated the footballs by precisely the difference between the two gauges. How does this not stand out?! Does anyone really believe that removing 0.38 psi from a football could be the difference between winning and losing? That it would be worth running such an unsophisticated operation and risk getting caught? That this operation would be assigned to a part time employee who uses words like dorito dink?

Good for McIntyre for pointing this out. Unfortunately, Goodell, Wells, and haters are allergic to rational thought.

 

[NashuaPats]

I was reading his June 29th post on his website and came across this letter he sent to Ted Wells. Beautiful.

Steve McIntyre
Posted Jun 29, 2015 at 8:29 PM | Permalink
I sent the following email to Ted Wells:

While there have been many criticisms of Exponent’s technical analysis, I wish to draw your attention to a material and highly important misrepresentation of methodology in their technical report. The calculation of transients, used in the important analyses of Figures 27 and 30, is described as follows:

In recognition of the remaining uncertainty as to which gauge was used to measure the footballs pre-game and in the interest of completeness, similar tests were run using the Logo Gauge. The Logo Gauge was used to set the pressure of two balls to 12.50 psig (representative of the Patriots) and two balls to 13.00 psig (representative of the Colts). From each set (corresponding to each team), one ball remained dry while exposed to the game temperature and the other was wet.

For reasons set out in more detail at Climate Audit (http://climateaudit.org/2015/06/29/exponents-transients-bodge-or-botch/), it is impossible that the bolded statement is a correct description of Exponent’s actual methodology. To arrive at the dry Patriot transient illustrated in Figure 27, the Logo Gauge would have had to have been set to ~12.81 psig. It appears more likely that a different gauge was used to initialize the footballs in the simulations illustrated in these figures. If Exponent had used the stated methodology, they would not arrive at the results illustrated in Figures 27 and 30.

The misrepresentation is material and warrants an immediate corrigendum, together with retraction of technical analysis depending on this mistake. It is by no means the only statistical error in Exponent’s report, but is somewhat distinguished by it being an actual misrepresentation as opposed to a methodological critique.

I have considerable experience in statistical analysis. I have made presentations to a panel of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, a subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives and my work has been covered on the front page of the Wall St Journal, by CNN and Fox News and internationally. In 2010, the New Statesman magazine in the U.K. recognized me as one of “50 People Who Mattered” in 2010.
Regards,
Stephen McIntyre
Climate Audit
http://www.climateaudit.org

 

[cmasspatsfan]

"Remarkably, for Non-Logo initialization, the only manual deflation that is not precluded are amounts equal (within uncertainty) to the inter-gauge bias of ~0.38 psi. Precisely why Patriots would have deflated balls by an amount almost exactly equal to the bias between referee Anderson’s gauges is a bizarre coincidence, to say the least. I think that one can safely say that it is “more probable than not” that referee Anderson used the Logo gauge than that such an implausible coincidence."

This cannot be repeated enough times. The accusation is that the Patriots deflated the footballs by precisely the difference between the two gauges. How does this not stand out?! Does anyone really believe that removing 0.38 psi from a football could be the difference between winning and losing? That it would be worth running such an unsophisticated operation and risk getting caught? That this operation would be assigned to a part time employee who uses words like dorito dink?

Good for McIntyre for pointing this out. Unfortunately, Goodell, Wells, and haters are allergic to rational thought.

The math's too complicated for 95% of the population to understand, the reasoning too complex so they rely on the media to tell them what they just read. Even the people smart enough to understand block out the rational explanations and look at it through their guilty POV. That's why Mort's tweet was so damaging and whoever gave him that info knew what they were doing in controlling the narrative. This whole story has been a dog and pony show up to this point, I just want to get this in court where it will be looked at objectively.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Steve McIntyre
Posted Jun 29, 2015 at 8:29 PM | Permalink
I sent the following email to Ted Wells:

While there have been many criticisms of Exponent’s technical analysis, I wish to draw your attention to a material and highly important misrepresentation of methodology in their technical report. The calculation of transients, used in the important analyses of Figures 27 and 30, is described as follows:

In recognition of the remaining uncertainty as to which gauge was used to measure the footballs pre-game and in the interest of completeness, similar tests were run using the Logo Gauge. The Logo Gauge was used to set the pressure of two balls to 12.50 psig (representative of the Patriots) and two balls to 13.00 psig (representative of the Colts). From each set (corresponding to each team), one ball remained dry while exposed to the game temperature and the other was wet.

For reasons set out in more detail at Climate Audit (http://climateaudit.org/2015/06/29/exponents-transients-bodge-or-botch/), it is impossible that the bolded statement is a correct description of Exponent’s actual methodology. To arrive at the dry Patriot transient illustrated in Figure 27, the Logo Gauge would have had to have been set to ~12.81 psig. It appears more likely that a different gauge was used to initialize the footballs in the simulations illustrated in these figures. If Exponent had used the stated methodology, they would not arrive at the results illustrated in Figures 27 and 30.

The misrepresentation is material and warrants an immediate corrigendum, together with retraction of technical analysis depending on this mistake. It is by no means the only statistical error in Exponent’s report, but is somewhat distinguished by it being an actual misrepresentation as opposed to a methodological critique.

I have considerable experience in statistical analysis. I have made presentations to a panel of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, a subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives and my work has been covered on the front page of the Wall St Journal, by CNN and Fox News and internationally. In 2010, the New Statesman magazine in the U.K. recognized me as one of “50 People Who Mattered” in 2010.
Regards,
Stephen McIntyre
Climate Audit
http://www.climateaudit.org

Basically he agrees with AEG and also disagrees with the Wells report in that their stated methodology fails to produce their claimed results.

Note that the "comments" section fails to disagree with his analysis instead repeating the mantra "but the Patriots guy LOCKED himself in the bathroom" over and over, a chant to ward off actual analysis that shows that human caused deflation did not happen.

 

[patsfan13]

Yes they have, and have been getting away with it, that's the crime. The twisting of these facts by the haters and the Felgers is just mind boggling.

Felger couldn't figure out the percentage that Hardy's suspension was reduced by, he has no clue what an educated person like McIntyre puts out.

No twisting like stupidity.

 

[Canuck]

I am thinking that Mr. Steve McIntyre would be a good witness to call on behalf of Brady should this ever go to trial.

 

[Koma]

Basically he agrees with AEG and also disagrees with the Wells report in that their stated methodology fails to produce their claimed results.

Note that the "comments" section fails to disagree with his analysis instead repeating the mantra "but the Patriots guy LOCKED himself in the bathroom" over and over, a chant to ward off actual analysis that shows that human caused deflation did not happen.

Your second paragraph is one of the points where logic and common sense goes MIA for some people. If you're using a single occupancy public restroom that has a lock on the door, it's not an unusual act to lock the door. It's, in fact, completely reasonable and expected behavior. It doesn't mean you're doing something secretive or illegal, it just means you don't want people interrupting you while your using the toilet.

 

[NashuaPats]

In the comment section of his July 3rd article, Steve McIntyre has been engaging with commentators in debates about the science and text messages. At one point, he refers to a thread and comment on a Patriots blog about the text "deflate and give somebody that jkt":


"One blogger write:

Some are suggesting it means McNally is referring to the puffy jacket that Jastremski is wearing. Personally, I’m guessing McNally is telling Jastremski to calm down after seeing that play. While that does not refer to weight loss, it does show they loosely use that term for meanings that have nothing to do with air pressure and footballs."

That comment is from Patsfans.com. I thought that was cool.
I thought it was even cooler that its my comment. I'm patting myself on the back.

McIntyre really does an outstanding job thoroughly derailing the Wells report both in his articles and comment sections.

 

[VectorPrime]

Was it ever made clear if those few instances of using the word deflate in texts were the only ones there were? Because 3 over nearly a calendar year, with two occurring in the offseason, is nothing. You'd have to imagine they would have included it if there were more.

 

[Tony2046]

Was it ever made clear if those few instances of using the word deflate in texts were the only ones there were? Because 3 over nearly a calendar year, with two occurring in the offseason, is nothing. You'd have to imagine they would have included it if there were more.

Deflator means something to Felger type guys because they can't or won't understand the science involved in deflategate. They put Deflator and Bathroom trip together and get cheating.

The importance of the AEI report and the Steve McIntyre blog is that they show that Walt Anderson's recollection of using the Logo gauge, which was 0.4 psi out of calibration, was accurate. Which means that the loss of pressure due to the weather , (1.2 psi) and the gauge (0.4 psi) explains the readings taken at halftime. 12.5 - 1.6 = 10.9 psi. There are other factors such as rain temperature and evaporation etc... but the main theme is that words such as "Deflator" have 0 implication if the science states otherwise.