State of the AFC – did the Broncos actually improve through free agency?

[Brady6]

I say NO, I do not agree with the belief that the Denver Broncos improved this offseason. They added four players, three of them very productive one and one solid one. They lost their #1 RB, #1 LG, #1 MLB, #1 CB, #1 DE, #1 KR/PR, #2 WR, #3 DE, and a handful of other players.

Additions
- Aqib Talib
- Demarcus Ware
- TJ Ward
- Emmanuel Sanders
- Will Montgomery

Departures
- Champ Bailey
- Chris Kuper
- Wesley Woodyard
- Eric Decker
- Zane Beadles
- Trindon Holliday
- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
- Knowshon Moreno
- Shaun Phillips
- Robert Ayers
- Jeremy Mincey
- Mike Adams

Looking at this list, I have these questions –

- Is the often-injured Talib that much of an improvement over what DRC gave them in 2013?
- Is Ware going to replace the sack production that Phillips and Ayers gave them in 2013 when they combined for 15.5 sacks?
- Is Ward a box safety going to improve the defense that much over Adams, Bailey, and Woodward?
- Is Sanders going to provide anything close to what Decker gave them, who had 24 touchdowns in the past two regular seasons?
- Who replaces Moreno as the #1 RB, will they come close to 1600 total yards and 13 touchdowns?

Add to that the lack of OGs and the loss of their KR/PR, and I am having a difficult time identifying them being improved.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I say NO, I do not agree with the belief that the Denver Broncos improved this offseason. They added four players, three of them very productive one and one solid one. They lost their #1 RB, #1 LG, #1 MLB, #1 CB, #1 DE, #1 KR/PR, #2 WR, #3 DE, and a handful of other players.

Additions
- Aqib Talib
- Demarcus Ware
- TJ Ward
- Emmanuel Sanders

Departures
- Champ Bailey
- Chris Kuper
- Wesley Woodyard
- Eric Decker
- Zane Beadles
- Trindon Holliday
- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
- Knowshon Moreno
- Shaun Phillips
- Robert Ayers
- Jeremy Mincey
- Mike Adams

Looking at this list, I have these questions –

- Is the often-injured Talib that much of an improvement over what DRC gave them in 2013?
- Is Ware going to replace the sack production that Phillips and Ayers gave them in 2013 when they combined for 15.5 sacks?
- Is Ward a box safety going to improve the defense that much over Adams, Bailey, and Woodward?
- Is Sanders going to provide anything close to what Decker gave them, who had 24 touchdowns in the past two regular seasons?
- Who replaces Moreno as the #1 RB, will they come close to 1600 total yards and 13 touchdowns?

Add to that the lack of OGs and the loss of their KR/PR, and I am having a difficult time identifying them being improved.

I think they also add Will Montgomery at center.

 

[ausbacker]

Is there a particular reason you left Will Montgomery off the additions list?

 

[Brady6]

I think they also add Will Montgomery at center.

Is there a particular reason you left Will Montgomery off the additions list?

My error he has been added. Thank you for the save.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Is there a particular reason you left Will Montgomery off the additions list?

He was signed just last week, so it's easy to overlook.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I absolutely agree with you.

In Vegas, the Patriots and Broncos were both +900 to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the offseason.

The Broncos, as you pointed out in your post, did not improve, unless it is in jersey sales, star recognition, and former pro bowl accolades. I think their moves bordered on idiotic and wrote a separate thread about how John Elways is overrated and botched this offseason. In particular, the Talib contract was insane, the Ware contract was easily, without question, the worst reach of the year, and while Ward was probably a good signing, it doesn't negate the other bad moves and major holes on that roster. The most baffling signing to me was Sanders; the Broncos are supposedly in "win-now" mode and vastly overpaid for other players, yet they let Decker walk and gave a lot of money to Sanders? Why not just re-sign a known commodity who gives you the best WR corps in the league, knows the system, and has great chemistry with Manning? Decker's contract with the Jets wasn't that big, and they outbid everyone for Sanders instead.

The Patriots, meanwhile, improved by any objective analysis. They were able to resign Edelman, work things out with Wilfork, had very few notable departures, improved at cornerback by adding the league's very best in Revis (and someone without motivation problems or constant nagging injuries), added Browner, and added LaFell.

The Broncos are now +500. The Patriots are still +900. I have no idea why the public is such a bunch of suckers for household names, but that philosophy fails each year. Smart money is on the Patriots.

 

[varjao]

In theory, I still see them going for a 12-4 / 13-3 season, just like us, although our schedule will be tough.

But I understand that if we got a B+ draft, we will have a better and more balanced team.

 

[Sicilian]

I think their offense has taken a step back for sure. That may change after the draft, but right now their O-Line is roughly the same (maybe a tad worse, could go either way). Sanders I think can be as productive as Decker was, but he still has to prove that with Manning before it's a slam dunk. He just might not fit in the same way, and Decker was a big part of that offense last year. And they've lost their top running back, currently relying on Montee Ball to pick up the slack (and not immediately fumble it).

Defensively, I think they got better. Bailey wasn't Bailey last year. Talib, when healthy, is an improvement over DRC. Ware is an improvement over Phillips (maybe not on a value scale, but on pure talent there's no question), and Ward improves their safety depth and talent. They lost Woodyard, that could be big, but they're getting back Chris Harris (their ACTUAL top corner) and Von Miller, which would be huge by itself.

As with all teams (Pats included), healthy will determine how much better they can be, but on paper they have improved this year IMO.

 

[50-yard-line]

They may have improved...big "IFs."

When it's my home team, I hate "IFs."

Defensively, if Ware is anything more than a shell of his former self, he and a returning Von Miller could be a really good combination. Their interior D-Line is pretty stout.

Their linebackers are meh - Trevathian's pretty good. I think they undervalued Woodyard, though, and that might be a big loss.

Which Talib will be there? He can play at or above DRC's level, or he can have that nagging hip bust him. I didn't think he was nearly as good in the second half last year as the first, but when he's on, he's elite.

They've got a MUCH tougher schedule, however, and against much more physical teams (NFC West and AFC East vs. NFC East and AFC South last year).

Like Woodyard, Moreno is a bigger loss than they know.

When the playoffs roll around, Denver will be right there is Manning stays healthy. Home field could be had by New England, though, given Denver's schedule.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Baily leaving is nothing. He sucks now.

RBs are very interchangeable.

Holiday is a home run guy...but makes horrible decisions and can't hang onto the ball.

But...Talib has never played in 16 games so he will be missing games and probably come playoffs with his nagging hip. That contract was not smart

 

[BradyFTW!]

My thoughts:

Overall: Yes, assuming that they make the necessary additions through the draft/TC pickups/late free agency, this team will be better, on paper, than last year's team

Where they've improved: the secondary. I'm a big fan of TJ Ward, and I think they got him for a great price. And while Talib has a giant red flag in his injury concerns, as a player he is simply better than DRC. They're gambling on his health, no doubt, and while that gamble could easily bite them in the ass if he goes down yet again, it would pay big dividends if he's around playing at even 90% of his top level in January. I also don't consider losing Bailey to be much of a loss. He offered them pretty much nothing last year. I don't believe that Mike Adams has signed yet, but even if he doesn't, again, Ward is a definite improvement.

Where their losses have been overstated: RB and LB. At RB, I like Moreno, but Ball is ready for the job. Yes, he will be a significant downgrade in pass blocking and receiving, but he's just a better runner than Moreno is. Losing Moreno means that they won't have as much flexibility as they had last year, and that does hurt somewhat, but the skillset that they're losing is replaceable, even if they haven't really replaced it yet.

At LB, Woodyard is a good player. I would have been happy if the Pats had signed him, and losing a captain is never fun. But if there was a silver lining to Woodyard being hurt for much of last year, it's that they already know that Trevathan can do a pretty solid approximation of Woodyard's job.

Also, KR, because kick returners just don't matter all that much anymore. Sorry, Holliday.

Where their gains have been overstated: DE. As a Pats fan, I love the Ware signing, because they're in all likelihood paying $10M for roughly the same production that they just got from Shaun Phillips for $1.5M. As it stands now, they're bringing in Ware and losing Phillips, Ayers, and potentially Wolfe (seriously, is there any update on him? What's going on?) I'm sure they'll shore up this position with some picks/signings, but I think that any gains will be far less significant than Ware's price tag (relative to who he's replacing) dictate.

Where I think they'll be basically the same: WR/TE. Granted, next year is probably going to be a receiver apocalypse for them, but I think Decker to Sanders is pretty much a lateral move. They're trading size for shiftiness, and that may hurt them a bit given that Peyton's weakened arm is helped by big bodies that can body up DBs and make a play on balls anywhere near them, but I think they're the same general caliber of receiver.

Where they could be really screwed: interior of the OL. They had a lot of question marks at this time last year, but their interior ended up being a real strength on that team. They're going to have to hope that they can replicate that, because right now it looks like a huge downgrade at a position that they need to be strong at for Peyton to operate. As much as people like me complain that the Pats' interior OL isn't good enough, the Broncos' is worse in its current state, and they need it to be better even more than the Pats do. I'm sure that they'll address this in the draft, and are probably hoping for a Brian-Waters-in-2011 type opportunity to fall into their laps, but it's a huge question mark at this point.

Beyond that, I think that there's a tradeoff in that their schedule is much, much tougher than last year's, but I don't think they'll be hit as hard by injuries. I think they'll win fewer games, mostly on account of the harder schedule, but I do think that they'll be an improved team, provided that the interior OL situation is somewhat resolved.

 

[patsinthesnow]

The whole aura of the Broncos was that they were the greatest offense in NFL history, having arguably the four best options on the field to cover in a long time. They lost that.

-They went from a high end WR2 to a low end WR2
-Wes turns 33
-Moreno to Ball is a downgrade until proven otherwise

Their defense definitely improved with the addition of Ward. I think Ware is equal to Phillips/Ayers. Talib really isn't that big of an upgrade as a pure man cover corner over DRC.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I absolutely agree with you.

In Vegas, the Patriots and Broncos were both +900 to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the offseason.

The Broncos, as you pointed out in your post, did not improve, unless it is in jersey sales, star recognition, and former pro bowl accolades. I think their moves bordered on idiotic and wrote a separate thread about how John Elways is overrated and botched this offseason. In particular, the Talib contract was insane, the Ware contract was easily, without question, the worst reach of the year, and while Ward was probably a good signing, it doesn't negate the other bad moves and major holes on that roster. The most baffling signing to me was Sanders; the Broncos are supposedly in "win-now" mode and vastly overpaid for other players, yet they let Decker walk and gave a lot of money to Sanders? Why not just re-sign a known commodity who gives you the best WR corps in the league, knows the system, and has great chemistry with Manning? Decker's contract with the Jets wasn't that big, and they outbid everyone for Sanders instead.

The Patriots, meanwhile, improved by any objective analysis. They were able to resign Edelman, work things out with Wilfork, had very few notable departures, improved at cornerback by adding the league's very best in Revis (and someone without motivation problems or constant nagging injuries), added Browner, and added LaFell.

The Broncos are now +500. The Patriots are still +900. I have no idea why the public is such a bunch of suckers for household names, but that philosophy fails each year. Smart money is on the Patriots.

The Talib contract wasn't great, but on closer inspection it wasn't as bad as the day one numbers suggested. It's a 3 year, $27M deal with three fake years of $9-11M salaries tacked onto the back end. On the day that he left, if it was reported that the Pats had signed Talib to a 3 year, $27M deal, I wouldn't have loved the signing, but I definitely wouldn't have hated it.

Given how things have gone, though, I'm happy that it worked out as it did. Give me Revis any day.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, they upgraded their team, on paper. Whether it shows on the field is what will matter.

Just like the Patriots, part of the key is the return of injured players. Clady coming back fixes the line, for example, because the positional flexibility of players like Ramirez will allow Fox to set up the OL of his choosing.

They've upgraded at corner, and Harris will return.
They've upgraded (big time) at safety
They've upgraded the pass rush

Losing backup linebackers isn't a big issue
Losing Moreno hurts from a depth perspective, but they wanted Ball as the starter


While I'd consider the Decker/Sanders swap a downgrade, many people here would seem to think otherwise, given their postings about the two players.

Their biggest loss, the one most difficult to replace, is Holliday.



Currently stronger on paper, but with less depth. Time will tell the tale.

 

[Brady6]

And while Talib has a giant red flag in his injury concerns, as a player he is simply better than DRC. They're gambling on his health, no doubt, and while that gamble could easily bite them in the ass if he goes down yet again, it would pay big dividends if he's around playing at even 90% of his top level in January.

I think the legend of Talib has outgrown the player Talib actually is. Belichick schemes to shut down the other team’s top weapon, he always has. He shutdown players like Fitzgerald with the likes of Sterling Moore in the past. Talib was put in the situation to succeed, I think the claim to fame for Talib was when he shutdown Graham in week six but actually Talib left that game in the third quarter and Kyle Arrington replaced him covering Graham and also shut him down. Graham was playing on a bad ankle as well.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think the legend of Talib has outgrown the player Talib actually is. Belichick schemes to shut down the other team’s top weapon, he always has. He shutdown players like Fitzgerald with the likes of Sterling Moore in the past. Talib was put in the situation to succeed, I think the claim to fame for Talib was when he shutdown Graham in week six but actually Talib left that game in the third quarter and Kyle Arrington replaced him covering Graham and also shut him down. Graham was playing on a bad ankle as well.

That sounds a bit like revisionist history, TBH. I don't think you could find a poster here who didn't think that Talib was a top 10 corner when healthy, prior to his leaving for the Broncos. And it wasn't just his performance against Graham: it was the three weeks leading up to that, as well. When you take those four weeks together, it was mostly Talib who held VJax, Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Graham to a combined 12 receptions for 172 yards and 0 TDs. That's impressive, and most of that yardage came from Jones on plays where, IIRC, Talib mostly wasn't covering him.

In any case, even if you do feel that healthy Talib was being overrated around here - I'd probably agree with that, to a point - he's still definitely better than DRC, by a significant margin.

 

[Rob0729]

Some things:

1.) I don't get why people automatically assume Emanuel Sanders for Eric Decker is basically a lateral move. It could be. It could be an upgrade. But if you watched how Manning used the outside receivers last year, he could potentially be a significant downgrade. Manning threw a lot of floaters to Decker and D Thomas and allowed them to use their size to go over the defender for the ball. That ain't happening with Sanders. And people just automatically assume that Sanders with Manning will give him north of 1,000 yards. May happen. May not. Won't happen if Manning continues to throw jump balls to the outside.

2.) I think people are underestimating the age and wear and tear on Manning and Welker. We hear the national media talking about how Brady is declining with age, but not Manning. Yes, Manning had the best year of his career last year, but his arm strength is noticeably declining. He threw a lot of floaters last year and he rare threw more than 15-20 yards down the field. If his arm strength continues to rapidly decline, his mental abilities (able to read defenses, quick release, finding the open man) will only help him so much.

As for Welker, he was showing signs of decline before his head injuries. He clearly had lost a step early in the year and his hands have been declining for a few years now. After the concussions, he was a shell of himself. The question is whether he can regain his pre-concussion form and even if he does does age still continue to wear away at his skills?

3.) Aquib Talib is a big upgrade IF he can be the Talib from the first 5-6 weeks last year. If he is like the Talib from any time from his Tampa era or the rest of the time he was in New England, he is a lateral move at best from DRC.

4.) Can Monte Ball hold onto the ball and can he be a legitimate starting RB. Moreno was overrated last year, but Ball was unable to steal the starting role from him.

5.) Their interior o-line is a big question mark.

 

[Rob0729]

That sounds a bit like revisionist history, TBH. I don't think you could find a poster here who didn't think that Talib was a top 10 corner when healthy, prior to his leaving for the Broncos. And it wasn't just his performance against Graham: it was the three weeks leading up to that, as well. When you take those four weeks together, it was mostly Talib who held VJax, Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Graham to a combined 12 receptions for 172 yards and 0 TDs. That's impressive, and most of that yardage came from Jones on plays where, IIRC, Talib mostly wasn't covering him.

In any case, even if you do feel that healthy Talib was being overrated around here - I'd probably agree with that, to a point - he's still definitely better than DRC, by a significant margin.

He was a potential DPOY candidate for the first five or six weeks last year, but that was the only time in his career he played remotely that well. The question is whether he can reproduce that level of play. And the bigger question is can he stay healthy.

 

[Ring 6]

That sounds a bit like revisionist history, TBH. I don't think you could find a poster here who didn't think that Talib was a top 10 corner when healthy, prior to his leaving for the Broncos. And it wasn't just his performance against Graham: it was the three weeks leading up to that, as well. When you take those four weeks together, it was mostly Talib who held VJax, Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Graham to a combined 12 receptions for 172 yards and 0 TDs. That's impressive, and most of that yardage came from Jones on plays where, IIRC, Talib mostly wasn't covering him.

In any case, even if you do feel that healthy Talib was being overrated around here - I'd probably agree with that, to a point - he's still definitely better than DRC, by a significant margin.

However that Saints game was the game he was again injured. His play suffered due to the injury which is the point I would assume anyone detracting from his play last year would be making.
If Talib suddenly becomes the Alex Mack (just read in his career he has never missed a single one of 5150 snaps) or corners, then he is definitely an upgrade for them. But if he is out, and/or playing injured then its much more debatable.
That was the poison pill in keeping him. He was great when he was 100% but he wasn't 100% often.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Some things:

1.) I don't get why people automatically assume Emanuel Sanders for Eric Decker is basically a lateral move. It could be. It could be an upgrade. But if you watched how Manning used the outside receivers last year, he could potentially be a significant downgrade. Manning threw a lot of floaters to Decker and D Thomas and allowed them to use their size to go over the defender for the ball. That ain't happening with Sanders. And people just automatically assume that Sanders with Manning will give him north of 1,000 yards. May happen. May not. Won't happen if Manning continues to throw jump balls to the outside.

2.) I think people are underestimating the age and wear and tear on Manning and Welker. We hear the national media talking about how Brady is declining with age, but not Manning. Yes, Manning had the best year of his career last year, but his arm strength is noticeably declining. He threw a lot of floaters last year and he rare threw more than 15-20 yards down the field. If his arm strength continues to rapidly decline, his mental abilities (able to read defenses, quick release, finding the open man) will only help him so much.

As for Welker, he was showing signs of decline before his head injuries. He clearly had lost a step early in the year and his hands have been declining for a few years now. After the concussions, he was a shell of himself. The question is whether he can regain his pre-concussion form and even if he does does age still continue to wear away at his skills?

3.) Aquib Talib is a big upgrade IF he can be the Talib from the first 5-6 weeks last year. If he is like the Talib from any time from his Tampa era or the rest of the time he was in New England, he is a lateral move at best from DRC.

4.) Can Monte Ball hold onto the ball and can he be a legitimate starting RB. Moreno was overrated last year, but Ball was unable to steal the starting role from him.

5.) Their interior o-line is a big question mark.

I agree re: 1, but re: 2, you just answered your own question. Peyton just had the best season of his career, and probably the best season that anyone's ever had in the NFL. It's hard to argue that he's currently in decline overall based on that performance, although it's fair to say that he has some limitations as a player that he didn't have in the past, and that a decline is likely. I think it's more accurate to say that that 2014 Manning WILL decline from 2013 Manning, if for no other reason than it's virtually impossible to replicate the kind of year he just had.

I agree re: Welker, although I strongly disagree about Talib vs. DRC. If it's a lateral move, it's entirely because of the injury risk. In terms of talent, Talib is a much better corner than DRC is. His baseline level of healthy play is significantly beyond DRC's. If the exchange ends up hurting them, it will be because when the competition tightens in January, the odds of Talib being on the field and producing like a #1 are not great.

Re: Moreno and Ball, they were in a full-on platoon by the end of the season. The carries were evenly split, and Ball's last fumble came in their loss against the Pats on 11/24. Losing Moreno will hurt them to a degree, but more for his blocking nad receiving than his rushing ability.

I agree re: the interior of the OL, though. I'm surprised that they haven't made any move to address it so far, and I'm willing to bet that they'll address it early in the draft. I can't imagine that they'll go into the season why the unit looking anything like it does now, because that would be pretty ugly.