Some thoughts on offensive participation stats

[ctpatsfan77]

Per Reiss at ESPNBoston.com. [Note that these only count the five skill positions, not QB/OL, and that Reiss' numbers don't quite add up to 5.]

Looking at percentages:

WR (average 2.17/play)
Moss (traded) 81.9%
Welker 63.9%
Tate 55.0%
Edelman 14.9%
Slater 1.2%
Price 0%

TE (average 1.81/play)
Hernandez 67.9%
Gronkowski 60.6%
Crumpler 51.8%
LeVoir @TE 0.4%

RB (average 0.99/play)
Green-Ellis 29.3%
Faulk (IR) 20.5%
Taylor 18.5%
Morris 14.1%
Woodhead 14.1%
Connolly @FB 2.4%

In other words, the Patriots need to replace Moss' contribution, as well as Faulk's, which adds up to an average of one skill position per play.

Right now, I'd expect to see a distribution something like this for WR going forward:

Welker 70%
Tate 60%
Branch 50%
Edelman 40%

I don't really see the TE numbers changing much, except maybe to even out the imbalance between GRONK and Hernandez a bit; as for RB, I suspect that BJGE and Woodhead will get most of the reps until Morris and Taylor heal up, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see Edelman added to the mix at RB for some gadget plays.

 

[unoriginal]

Looking at percentages:

WR (average 2.17/play)
Moss (traded) 81.9%
Welker 63.9%
Tate 55.0%
Edelman 14.9%
Slater 1.2%
Price 0%

TE (average 1.81/play)
Hernandez 67.9%
Gronkowski 60.6%
Crumpler 51.8%
LeVoir @TE 0.4%

(...)

I don't really see the TE numbers changing much, except maybe to even out the imbalance between GRONK and Hernandez a bit; as for RB, I suspect that BJGE and Woodhead will get most of the reps until Morris and Taylor heal up, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see Edelman added to the mix at RB for some gadget plays.

My guess would be that Hernandez's snaps will go up more than Gronkowski's, as Hernandez will likely be a split end now in more packages, especially down in the red zone. I know Arizona split Gronkowski out like that some but I don't think he and Hernandez are interchangable like that on the NFL level.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but one of the few times I've seen the Pats split Gronkowski wide was when they ran that Emory & Henry type screen to Welker for a TD against the Bengals.

 

[jmt57]

This is over-simplifying it a bit, but I would basically expect Tate to take over Moss' reps; Branch to take over Tate's reps; and Woodhead to take over Faulk's reps. Granted Tate's participation numbers won't be expected to equal what Moss' were, but I would think they would increase more than just 5%. The rest will increase or decrease depending on injuries.

 

[stinkypete]

Welker's snaps are also low due to that hit he took in the Jets game. He missed an entire half, accounting for probably a good 10% of snaps. His numbers definitely go up a bit.

I'd expect Tate and Branch to split the remaining snaps. I think the TE numbers stay relatively stable.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Here are some number crunched that shed some light on what was happening and therefore hint at what may happen going forward.

Crunching numbers on the Patriots - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[jmt57]

Here are some number crunched that shed some light on what was happening and therefore hint at what may happen going forward.

Crunching numbers on the Patriots - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Thanks for posting that. Even though the season is young and the sample size is therefore very small, there were a lot of very interesting stats in that column.

 

[satz]

My guess would be that Hernandez's snaps will go up more than Gronkowski's, as Hernandez will likely be a split end now in more packages, especially down in the red zone. I know Arizona split Gronkowski out like that some but I don't think he and Hernandez are interchangable like that on the NFL level.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but one of the few times I've seen the Pats split Gronkowski wide was when they ran that Emory & Henry type screen to Welker for a TD against the Bengals.

Actually in the redzone you have play gronk more now as he give you the big target. You use hernandez between the 20s but once in the redzone you bring the big man in.

 

[unoriginal]

Actually in the redzone you have play gronk more now as he give you the big target. You use hernandez between the 20s but once in the redzone you bring the big man in.

Right, he'd be in, but before Hernandez would not necessarily be in in a 3WR/1TE or 2WR/2TE set. But maybe now without Moss they put him in at split end.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Actually in the redzone you have play gronk more now as he give you the big target. You use hernandez between the 20s but once in the redzone you bring the big man in.

The only way they could have more GRONK in the red zone is if they clone him.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

The only way they could have more GRONK in the red zone is if they clone him.

Or make a deal for his brother Chris in Dallas, who also happens to play fullback, a position I think we could use...

I agree with jmt57's oversimplification, that's probably how it will go and how it should go. Tate is really the only big, fast deep threat we have. The other receivers are better in the short to mid-range passing game.

Tate obviously won't be Moss, but he could be good in his own way. He won't make the spectacular catches, there won't be the jaw-dropping moments, but he could be a deep threat and also a guy who can do more than just run deep all the time. And it's not like we have been fantastic in the deep throws this season anyways, connecting on only 3 passes over 20 yards in only 12 attempts so far.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

NE Receivers by skill set:

Hands: Welker, Hernendez, Branch, Tate, Woodhead, Gronkowski, Crumpler ...
Deep Speed: Slater, Price, Tate, Edelman, Woodhead ...
Quickness/Suddenness: Welker, Edelman, Woodhead, Hernandez, Tate, Branch ...
Blocking: Crumpler, Gronkowski, Slater, Price, Welker, Edelman, Hernandez, Morris, Tate ...

Clayton is unknown and Taylor is still on the sick, lame, and lazy roster ...

NE can telegraph pass with a 2 WR/2 TE formation by splitting Hernandez and Gronkowski out with Woodhead or Edelman in the backfield, and turn it into a run with one Brady audible without a substitution. Manning is supposed to come to the line with one pass and one run called, NE can do much the same. Substitute Crumpler for Hernandez and now it looks like a run, but Edelman or Woodhead splitting out wide creates a 3 WR/2 TE formation with speed for intermediate or deeper routes. Are bunch formations passing or running possibilities? It looks to me as if BB has let BO'B lay the foundation for some really creative formation mismatches - and they have the QB to use them.

We live in interesting times.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It looks to me as if BB has let BO'B lay the foundation for some really creative formation mismatches - and they have the QB to use them.

And he d*** well better start, you know, calling them. . . .

 

[The Brandon Five]

NE Receivers by skill set:
Deep Speed: Slater, Price, Tate, Edelman, Woodhead ...

Interesting. I forget that Slater was a track star in high school (ran the 100 m in 10.67). His 40 time at the combine 4.36 is actually about the same as Woodhead's Pro Day times (4.33-4.38). He hasn't had many chances to catch a ball downfield (I remember a missed pass in the Buffalo game, but not much else). Hopefully his Hall of Fame pedigree leads to good things this year.

Price's 40 time is close (4.4), but I think that Tate might be faster than both of them (didn't participate in the Combine or Pro Day because of his ACL).

Edelman actually has less straight-line speed than all of them (4.52), but as we know he is unbelievably quick (a 3.92 short shuttle time is ri-donk-ulous).