Some speculation/tidbits about Gronkowski's status

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Trying to piece together the likelihood of Gronkowski playing in Super Bowl 52. I've found three sources of information outside of the initial report that the Patriots are "optimistic" about him playing and McCourty's comment that Gronkowski was in "good spirits."

The first (and most pessimistic) comes from the BetDSI, an online sportsbook; this initial list of odds was published on nj.com . I usually put a lot of stock in what oddsmakers say over anyone else, but in this case, I'm not sure if they have any more inside information and are just playing to public perception. Either way, they give him about a 60% probability to play, once the -150/+120 split is converted to a percentage (using a -135/+135 baseline.)

Super Bowl LII Props -

The second source comes from Dr. Chao, who despite his checkered past has a long history as an NFL doc and has been as accurate as anyone else watching television replays. Chao answers a lot of questions that people are wondering about typical concussion recoveries and believes there's a very good chance Gronkowski will be cleared to play (provided there were not setbacks.)

Every head injury is different, and there is no way to definitely predict his likelihood of playing. But the chances are very good that Gronkowski will be cleared. If he has no symptoms Monday morning, barring an unusual setback, he almost certainly will be cleared well before game time.

We found one previous reported concussions for Gronkowski, in 2013.

With more than four years since his last concussion, expect this one to be treated as a separate incident.

Recently, just over 50% of first-time concussions clear in seven days. Close to 90% clear by 14 days. This bodes well for Gronk.

Gronk should be good to play (and talk) for Super Bowl

The third source is more of a reach from TMZ, Gronk's good friend Mojo Rawley, but at the same time, it may contain the only first hand information since Rawley has presumably been speaking with Gronk since the concussion. He believes Gronkowski will play and confirms he his following "the right protocols." It should be noted, though, that medical clearance from a concussion has nothing to do with toughness.

Rob Gronkowski Will Be 'Good to Go' for Super Bowl, Says BFF Mojo Rawley

 

[maineman209]

Trying to piece together the likelihood of Gronkowski playing in Super Bowl 52. I've found three sources of information outside of the initial report that the Patriots are "optimistic" about him playing and McCourty's comment that Gronkowski was in "good spirits."

The first (and most pessimistic) comes from the BetDSI, an online sportsbook; this initial list of odds was published on nj.com . I usually put a lot of stock in what oddsmakers say over anyone else, but in this case, I'm not sure if they have any more inside information and are just playing to public perception. Either way, they give him about a 60% probability to play, once the -150/+120 split is converted to a percentage (using a -135/+135 baseline.)

Super Bowl LII Props -

The second source comes from Dr. Chao, who despite his checkered past has a long history as an NFL doc and has been as accurate as anyone else watching television replays. Chao answers a lot of questions that people are wondering about typical concussion recoveries and believes there's a very good chance Gronkowski will be cleared to play (provided there were not setbacks.)

Every head injury is different, and there is no way to definitely predict his likelihood of playing. But the chances are very good that Gronkowski will be cleared. If he has no symptoms Monday morning, barring an unusual setback, he almost certainly will be cleared well before game time.

We found one previous reported concussions for Gronkowski, in 2013.

With more than four years since his last concussion, expect this one to be treated as a separate incident.

Recently, just over 50% of first-time concussions clear in seven days. Close to 90% clear by 14 days. This bodes well for Gronk.

Gronk should be good to play (and talk) for Super Bowl

The third source is more of a reach from TMZ, Gronk's good friend Mojo Rawley, but at the same time, it may contain the only first hand information since Rawley has presumably been speaking with Gronk since the concussion. He believes Gronkowski will play and confirms he his following "the right protocols." It should be noted, though, that medical clearance from a concussion has nothing to do with toughness.

Rob Gronkowski Will Be 'Good to Go' for Super Bowl, Says BFF Mojo Rawley

Kudos for going with multiple sources with different takes and detailing the motivations and credibility of each.

Beats the crap out of the typical "rumor thread".

 

[RIpats88]

He will play. He might miss practice this week, but he should be fine for the super bowl. Cant know for sure. But there was some vikings player who was knocked out cold and played on Sunday.

Amendola suffered a concussion this year and missed one game(the next week). With 2 weeks off I expect gronk out there. Gilmores situation seemed to be more outside the norm.

 

[BTTA]

Leave it to Gronk to have a best friend named Mojo.

I wonder if the guy will have some fun with the press on this one. Pretend to forget what the conversation is about, people's names, things like that. Wouldn't be surprised.

 

[NewFeep]

Gronk-A-Saurus will be a go for the SB! I hope.....

 

[AtomicDawg]

Here's another source within a source.

 

[signbabybrady]

Trying to piece together the likelihood of Gronkowski playing in Super Bowl 52. I've found three sources of information outside of the initial report that the Patriots are "optimistic" about him playing and McCourty's comment that Gronkowski was in "good spirits."

The first (and most pessimistic) comes from the BetDSI, an online sportsbook; this initial list of odds was published on nj.com . I usually put a lot of stock in what oddsmakers say over anyone else, but in this case, I'm not sure if they have any more inside information and are just playing to public perception. Either way, they give him about a 60% probability to play, once the -150/+120 split is converted to a percentage (using a -135/+135 baseline.)

Super Bowl LII Props -

The second source comes from Dr. Chao, who despite his checkered past has a long history as an NFL doc and has been as accurate as anyone else watching television replays. Chao answers a lot of questions that people are wondering about typical concussion recoveries and believes there's a very good chance Gronkowski will be cleared to play (provided there were not setbacks.)

Every head injury is different, and there is no way to definitely predict his likelihood of playing. But the chances are very good that Gronkowski will be cleared. If he has no symptoms Monday morning, barring an unusual setback, he almost certainly will be cleared well before game time.

We found one previous reported concussions for Gronkowski, in 2013.

With more than four years since his last concussion, expect this one to be treated as a separate incident.

Recently, just over 50% of first-time concussions clear in seven days. Close to 90% clear by 14 days. This bodes well for Gronk.

Gronk should be good to play (and talk) for Super Bowl

The third source is more of a reach from TMZ, Gronk's good friend Mojo Rawley, but at the same time, it may contain the only first hand information since Rawley has presumably been speaking with Gronk since the concussion. He believes Gronkowski will play and confirms he his following "the right protocols." It should be noted, though, that medical clearance from a concussion has nothing to do with toughness.

Rob Gronkowski Will Be 'Good to Go' for Super Bowl, Says BFF Mojo Rawley

Pretty sure Mojo was in town for the game. So he has seen/spoke to him.

FYI he went to college with one of the brothers and is most definitely in the Gronk inner circle. You may recall Gronk has helped his wrestling career.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

We need him. I feel he can have a big game against the eagles.

 

[mosslost]

I think there is a “chance” we are without Gronk possibly

 

[Pats1989]

Here's another source within a source.

Dumb question, is the team subject to any legal issues if they play Gronk anyways? Like say he's still feeling dizzy next week, would they get in trouble if he goes out and plays?

 

[Alternator]

He's straight-up not allowed to play until cleared - in the event that an attempt was made regardless, security simply wouldn't let him, and the Patriots would eat a harsh punishment for the stunt.

Strictly legal issues, no.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Kudos for going with multiple sources with different takes and detailing the motivations and credibility of each.

Beats the crap out of the typical "rumor thread".

Might be the best reporting in the last 10 years

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

There could be legal issues if he played without being cleared. Of course, it would be the NFLPA vs. the NYGFL again. The irony is that Gronkowski himself is part of the NFLPA, so this would be a strange court case, and Gronkowski would need to be the damaged party. But other players could potentially cite this as evidence of malpractice. Bottom line is that he will not play if he isn’t medically cleared, and the NFLPA has supposedly made this process very objective with independent neurologists. I’m not sure to what extent concussion symptoms can be measured objectively by studying the brain and to what extent they rely on the concussed individual to provide answers.

 

[50-yard-line]

Well, it's harder to tell if Gronk has a concussion, so he's got that going for him.

I heard a rumor that the NFL guy held up three fingers and asked Gronk how many, adn he smiled and said "69" and that got him bounced from the game, despite repeated attempts by others to explain...

 

[patman12]

If he's cleared to practice, he'll play.

 

[supafly]

Nice work with the multiple angle thing, although you lost me a bit with the -150 odds equating to “60 percent.” I’m not sure how you arrived at that conclusion.

If I’m betting baseball or hockey and I have to give -150 (to win back 100), I strongly consider passing the game altogether and looking for better value, because -150 suggests a fairly strong favorite in my opinion.

In other words, I think listing -150 in the early hours/initial days after the injury suggests something positive, whereas you seem to suggest it as a potential negative as only a 60% chance.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I read somewhere that 5 days is the league average for clearing protocol when it is not a second concussion in the same season

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I give the original poster credit for not simply writing whatever comes to mind on the topic.

 

[Jackson 2]

Dumb question, is the team subject to any legal issues if they play Gronk anyways? Like say he's still feeling dizzy next week, would they get in trouble if he goes out and plays?

If he's not cleared, he can't play. Just like a player on season-ending IR can't play or a suspended guy can't play.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Nice work with the multiple angle thing, although you lost me a bit with the -150 odds equating to “60 percent.” I’m not sure how you arrived at that conclusion.

If I’m betting baseball or hockey and I have to give -150 (to win back 100), I strongly consider passing the game altogether and looking for better value, because -150 suggests a fairly strong favorite in my opinion.

In other words, I think listing -150 in the early hours/initial days after the injury suggests something positive, whereas you seem to suggest it as a potential negative as only a 60% chance.

The odds are at -150 to play and +120 to sit. The “true odds” would meet in the middle at -135 to play and + 135 to sit. The reason they do not align is so Vegas can make a profit.

At -135, the percentage odds are actually at 57.5% (a little less than 60%) that Gronkowski will play. Even if you used the -150 number, that would be exactly 60%. So, somewhere between 57.5 and 60% in Vegas.

Just put in -150 odds for the probability in percentage form, likelihood of it happening.

Odds Calculator

I say that is pessimistic because, though it is slightly more likely than not he is cleared, that number is not much better than a coin flip and probably much lower than the great majority of people would assume. Chao’s article cited that 90% of players return from a concussion within two weeks, and there are probably players who choose on the side of caution if their team is out of contention. I would think Gronkowski’s chances of playing would be much greater than that particular prop bet line from a sports book. So, in context I think those odds are pessimistic, though there is probably a better way to describe it, like “less optimistic.”