Schefter: Branch to New England for 4th round pick

[eagle eye]

Just a few quick questions that I'd like your take on or anyone opposed to bringing in branch for the 4th rounder:

If it was a 5th rounder than would that have made it a good trade?
If Tate goes down w/o branch here would you really feel comfortable with price @ this juncture as the guy on the outside?

I'm not opposed to Branch being here and I really do hope that it works out great. I've watched a lot of Seahawks games over the last while and this year he has looked a little better than he did previously but its only over a couple of games.

I just think with the contract he had there and his performance level since he got there that they could have got him a lot cheaper.

I'm not sure there is anybody good for the flanker role with the Patriots now, maybe Tate can do it with his burning speed, we'll see over the next couple of weeks but I certainly don't think that Branch can do that job. I don't know enough about Price but the fact we haven't seen him yet has to be a concern.

 

[mgcolby]

I'm not opposed to Branch being here and I really do hope that it works out great. I've watched a lot of Seahawks games over the last while and this year he has looked a little better than he did previously but its only over a couple of games.

I just think with the contract he had there and his performance level since he got there that they could have got him a lot cheaper.

I'm not sure there is anybody good for the flanker role with the Patriots now, maybe Tate can do it with his burning speed, we'll see over the next couple of weeks but I certainly don't think that Branch can do that job. I don't know enough about Price but the fact we haven't seen him yet has to be a concern.

Do you mean split end? Because Tate should be that guy. Welker/Edelman/Deion and Hernandez can play the flanker role. I suspect Tate and Welker will be the primary recievers in two receiver sets. But they really have 3 interchangable guys that can play offset both flanker and in the slot, 4 if you count Hern. Plus Welker can line up outside as can Deion. If the Pats utilize these guys right they can have a healthy rotation for their receivers without giving away any tells based on their personnel.

This offense is should be very unpredictable.

 

[captain stone]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but FESPN.com's Mike Sando, in a link provided by Reiss' blog, writes that Bill will give Seattle the Higher of the 4th-rounders for Meion.

I wish Bill had shown the sack to demand that Seattle include a 6th-rounder, a 7th at the least, to help him take this old, over-paid, injury-prone, 2006 SB-stealing twig off their hands.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but FESPN.com's Mike Sando, in a link provided by Reiss' blog, writes that Bill will give Seattle the Higher of the 4th-rounders for Meion.

I wish Bill had shown the sack to demand that Seattle include a 6th-rounder, a 7th at the least, to help him take this old, over-paid, injury-prone, 2006 SB-stealing twig off their hands.

As much as it sucks, Kontridiction makes a good point that the Pats will easily get that pick back by one trade down.

 

[Kontradiction]

As much as it sucks, Kontridiction makes a good point that the Pats will easily get that pick back by one trade down.

Trading down isn't the only way we can get that pick back.

 

[captain stone]

Trading down isn't the only way we can get that pick back.

If you're implying trading a player for a pick, then I'm not sure who's left to trade. It seems that Bill has already purged the roster of under-acheivers, malcontents & LateGate-ers...except for Mankin$.

 

[BradyManny]

I suppose by "shuts" down you mean "catches the go ahead TD late in the superbowl" but yeah your point is understood... oh wait no it's not. Branch did pretty much nothing to help win the Titans game in 2003, and without an open bobble by the Titans in the last minute of the game Branch never gets to see SB 38.

And I especially love how you define "playoffs" as the 2 superbowls for Branch and ignore the rest of the playoffs.

Anyway, again this is not a Moss vs. Branch debate. The simple FACT is that there is no "steps up in playoffs" skill. Branch and Brady were good together it's no shock that they had some good games in the playoffs (along with some bad ones).

Emoney33 - you can't turn football into something that can be analyzed on a piece of paper with a series of statistics. That's now how this game is. Of all the professional sports, it is the one which that kind of stuff matters least.

If you were watching back then, you can sufficiently say that Branch had some of those highly desirable "intangibles" that were so prevalent and apparent that they did essentially become tangible. You've been throwing #'s out there without any context and it's all irrelevant. Sometimes you just have to use your eyes. We remember Branch as a clutch player because was a clutch player. Don't try and over-analyze it. You can use statistics to support or deny pretty much any claim, it's all just a manipulation. Branch was clutch, Branch is mentally-tough, Branch can get open when it matters most, I know this because I saw him play. End of story.

 

[emoney_33]

Emoney33 - you can't turn football into something that can be analyzed on a piece of paper with a series of statistics. That's now how this game is. Of all the professional sports, it is the one which that kind of stuff matters least.

I agree in the sense that individual statistics in football tell you the least about individual performance of any of the major sports.

If you were watching back then, you can sufficiently say that Branch had some of those highly desirable "intangibles" that were so prevalent and apparent that they did essentially become tangible. You've been throwing #'s out there without any context and it's all irrelevant. Sometimes you just have to use your eyes. We remember Branch as a clutch player because was a clutch player. Don't try and over-analyze it. You can use statistics to support or deny pretty much any claim, it's all just a manipulation. Branch was clutch, Branch is mentally-tough, Branch can get open when it matters most, I know this because I saw him play. End of story.

Branch came up in the clutch yes I never said he didn't. He simply doesn't possess a skill that makes it likely that he'll come up huge in the playoffs going forward.

If it were a skill, what changes in the clutch? Does Branch get faster? smarter? does he catch better? does he read defenses better? Or is it likely that the opportunity happened to present itself in some of the biggest games in Patriots history and Branch's unchanged talents were used to help us win some pretty huge games.

Why didn't Branch play better in 2003 against the Titans if he has the ability to come up "big" for us when "needed". If Bennett doesn't drop an open pass, the Titans likely win, and at least bring it to OT.

Why did Brady throw that INT in the endzone in the Panthers SB? If Kasay doesn't kick it out of bounds, maybe that extra ~20 yards of field position is enough to send the game to OT. If Panthers win a 50% coin toss, they were already walking all over the Patriots "clutch" defense.

Why couldn't Brady and Branch win us that game in Denver?

 

[BradyManny]

I agree in the sense that individual statistics in football tell you the least about individual performance of any of the major sports.



Branch came up in the clutch yes I never said he didn't. He simply doesn't possess a skill that makes it likely that he'll come up huge in the playoffs going forward.

If it were a skill, what changes in the clutch? Does Branch get faster? smarter? does he catch better? does he read defenses better? Or is it likely that the opportunity happened to present itself in some of the biggest games in Patriots history and Branch's unchanged talents were used to help us win some pretty huge games.

Why didn't Branch play better in 2003 against the Titans if he has the ability to come up "big" for us when "needed". If Bennett doesn't drop an open pass, the Titans likely win, and at least bring it to OT.

Why did Brady throw that INT in the endzone in the Panthers SB? If Kasay doesn't kick it out of bounds, maybe that extra ~20 yards of field position is enough to send the game to OT. If Panthers win a 50% coin toss, they were already walking all over the Patriots "clutch" defense.

Why couldn't Brady and Branch win us that game in Denver?

Simply: clutchness does not guarantee performance under pressure. It only increases the likelihood of performance over failure under pressure.

No athlete performs 100% - with or without pressure. And one thing to consider is that - with the exception to some extent with Vinatieri - these players were not performing in a vaccuum - and were facing other players capable of either succumbing to the pressure or flourishing because of it. Tom Brady and Randy Moss were inches away from completing a would-be game winning Hail Mary on the final 3rd down of Super Bowl 42 that would've gone down amongst the great plays in sports history, if not for the timely reach of Giants' corner Corey Webster, who may have made the clutchest, and most underrated, play of the game.

With the lone exception of Bill Russell, there will never be a single athlete with an unblemished record when the chips are down. Brady and Belichick were en route to being in that category when David Tyree and the football gods intervened.

So, with that established, you simply have to evaluate the overall performance. Does Branch possess a skillset which leads to an increased likelihood to perform well under pressure? Depends on what you consider a skill. There is certainly science to back up the notion that pressure - including and specifically in sports - has an effect on the body and that different athletes respond to that pressure different ways.

Guys like Deion Branch, Tom Brady, Adam Vinatieri, Ty Law, Willie McGinest, etc. who have consistently succeeded more than they have failed in high-pressure situations which would otherwise hinder the average athletes can be said to be more "clutch" and more "mentally tough" than other athletes. I think that is a reasonable conclusion. The fact that they did not succeed 100% of the time in pressure situations does not dismiss their overall success in said clutch situations.

 

[Metaphors]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but FESPN.com's Mike Sando, in a link provided by Reiss' blog, writes that Bill will give Seattle the Higher of the 4th-rounders for Meion.

I wish Bill had shown the sack to demand that Seattle include a 6th-rounder, a 7th at the least, to help him take this old, over-paid, injury-prone, 2006 SB-stealing twig off their hands.

Think of it this way...

- The Pats wanted Meriweather in the 2007 draft. They got him using the pick acquired in the Branch trade.

- That freed up the later 1st to be traded to SF for their 1st in 2008 plus a 4th, which turned into Moss.

- The 1st in 2008 was turned into Mayo and Crable.

So essentially, you could consider the whole transaction as:

3 years of Moss
Mayo
Crable
Minnesota's 2011 3rd round pick

- for -

3 years of Branch
Denver's 2011 4th round pick

3 years of Moss >>>> 3 years of Branch
2011 3rd round pick >> 2011 4th round pick
Mayo and Crable are just icing on the cake

I still think a 4th was too high for Branch (and a 3rd too little for Moss), but thinking about it this way makes me feel better.

 

[emoney_33]

Simply: clutchness does not guarantee performance under pressure. It only increases the likelihood of performance over failure under pressure.

My argument is that an athlete's likelihood of performance does not change from "normal" situations to "high pressure" situations. Take Brady's playoff numbers vs. regular season numbers for example. Same (but slightly lower) comp %, TD %, INT % and Y/A. He'll be the first to to tell you that every drive in a game is of equal importance.

No athlete performs 100% - with or without pressure. And one thing to consider is that - with the exception to some extent with Vinatieri - these players were not performing in a vaccuum - and were facing other players capable of either succumbing to the pressure or flourishing because of it. Tom Brady and Randy Moss were inches away from completing a would-be game winning Hail Mary on the final 3rd down of Super Bowl 42 that would've gone down amongst the great plays in sports history, if not for the timely reach of Giants' corner Corey Webster, who may have made the clutchest, and most underrated, play of the game.

Corey Webster is not more clutch than Brady or Moss, he is no more or less likely to make that play in the regular season. Eli Manning had no control of the refs to not blow their whistles. Tom Brady'd "clutchness" did not make him lose the ball against Oakland in 2001 at the "right" time rather than the "wrong" time (half a second sooner or later).

With the lone exception of Bill Russell, there will never be a single athlete with an unblemished record when the chips are down. Brady and Belichick were en route to being in that category when David Tyree and the football gods intervened.

But if clutch were a skill they would have won.

So, with that established, you simply have to evaluate the overall performance. Does Branch possess a skillset which leads to an increased likelihood to perform well under pressure? Depends on what you consider a skill. There is certainly science to back up the notion that pressure - including and specifically in sports - has an effect on the body and that different athletes respond to that pressure different ways.

There is science that shows the effect of pressure physiologically in top athletes, I've not seen the science that shows it is different amongst "clutch" and "non clutch" performers. All of the most clutch athletes had high success rate at ALL times. They didn't play mediocre until it mattered and then suddenly played great. They played great far more often than not at all times.

Guys like Deion Branch, Tom Brady, Adam Vinatieri, Ty Law, Willie McGinest, etc. who have consistently succeeded more than they have failed in high-pressure situations which would otherwise hinder the average athletes can be said to be more "clutch" and more "mentally tough" than other athletes. I think that is a reasonable conclusion. The fact that they did not succeed 100% of the time in pressure situations does not dismiss their overall success in said clutch situations.

What is Vinatieri's FG% in "clutch" situations (including misses like Denver) vs. his regular season average? Where are all these athletes that are "hindered" in the clutch? Delhomme wasn't hindered, Warner wasn't hindered, Terrell Owens wasn't hindered.

 

[spacecrime]

Think of it this way...

- The Pats wanted Meriweather in the 2007 draft. They got him using the pick acquired in the Branch trade.

- That freed up the later 1st to be traded to SF for their 1st in 2008 plus a 4th, which turned into Moss.

- The 1st in 2008 was turned into Mayo and Crable.

So essentially, you could consider the whole transaction as:

3 years of Moss
Mayo
Crable
Minnesota's 2011 3rd round pick

- for -

3 years of Branch
Denver's 2011 4th round pick

3 years of Moss >>>> 3 years of Branch
2011 3rd round pick >> 2011 4th round pick
Mayo and Crable are just icing on the cake

I still think a 4th was too high for Branch (and a 3rd too little for Moss), but thinking about it this way makes me feel better.

That's an excellent analysis.

Another way of looking at it is how did the Pats obtain Denver's fourth round pick? You could look at the trade as giving up one year of Maroney to get two years of Branch.

 

[Patsrock]

What is Vinatieri's FG% in "clutch" situations (including misses like Denver) vs. his regular season average? Where are all these athletes that are "hindered" in the clutch? Delhomme wasn't hindered, Warner wasn't hindered, Terrell Owens wasn't hindered.

To me all plays in the playoffs are clutch situations.

Delhomme was hindered in the 2008 NFL playoffs you know like 5 ints at home or in 2005 3 INTS in the NFC championship.

Warner has 2 pick 6 in the Super Bowl which helped his team lose.

 

[emoney_33]

To me all plays in the playoffs are clutch situations.

Delhomme was hindered in the 2008 NFL playoffs you know like 5 ints at home or in 2005 3 INTS in the NFC championship.

Warner has 2 pick 6 in the Super Bowl which helped his team lose.

Then Brady was hindered in the 2005, 2006 and 2007 playoffs...

Delhomme kept bringing his team back with TDs in the 2003 Superbowl, but Brady gets all the "clutch" love because his TEAM won.

Warner scored 2 TDs in the 4th quarter of the SB against us. Vinatieri misses or his TEAM wins another way and all of a sudden Warner is clutch in that game.

TO is a prima donna WR that isn't "clutch" but he dominated in the SB against us with a hurt ankle.

 

[captain stone]

Think of it this way...

- The Pats wanted Meriweather in the 2007 draft. They got him using the pick acquired in the Branch trade.

- That freed up the later 1st to be traded to SF for their 1st in 2008 plus a 4th, which turned into Moss.

- The 1st in 2008 was turned into Mayo and Crable.

So essentially, you could consider the whole transaction as:

3 years of Moss
Mayo
Crable
Minnesota's 2011 3rd round pick

- for -

3 years of Branch
Denver's 2011 4th round pick

3 years of Moss >>>> 3 years of Branch
2011 3rd round pick >> 2011 4th round pick
Mayo and Crable are just icing on the cake

I still think a 4th was too high for Branch (and a 3rd too little for Moss), but thinking about it this way makes me feel better.

Plus, after I posted, it appears that Meion has agreed to restructure at least the 2011 portion of his contract; so we have that going for us, too.

Still, I'll always feel that if the twig had played for us in 2006, we'd have won the SB..

 

[spacecrime]

TO is a prima donna WR that isn't "clutch" but he dominated in the SB against us with a hurt ankle.

He most certainly did not dominate.

TO was covered man-up by UDFA rookie Randal Gay, and TO's only big catch-and-run came on an uncalled-by-the-refs horrendous pick where Gay was knocked on his butt by a RB while he was covering TO. Other than that, TO did squat. I'll give him playing hurt on that ankle, but he didn't dominate by any definition of the word.

 

[emoney_33]

He most certainly did not dominate.

TO was covered man-up by UDFA rookie Randal Gay, and TO's only big catch-and-run came on an uncalled-by-the-refs horrendous pick where Gay was knocked on his butt by a RB while he was covering TO. Other than that, TO did squat. I'll give him playing hurt on that ankle, but he didn't dominate by any definition of the word.

9 catches 122 yards...

 

[Joker]

He most certainly did not dominate.

TO was covered man-up by UDFA rookie Randal Gay, and TO's only big catch-and-run came on an uncalled-by-the-refs horrendous pick where Gay was knocked on his butt by a RB while he was covering TO. Other than that, TO did squat. I'll give him playing hurt on that ankle, but he didn't dominate by any definition of the word.

not only that but T.O. got open across the middle on uncalled illegal picks all game...the photos are archived on the net and easy to google...I think CHFF has an archived section devoted to it...or at least they did.

 

[Urgent]

Wait a minute:
Branch got 84?
Isn't this a bit soon to be giving out Watson's number?
Going to be real awkward when they retire it...

 

[Disco Volante]

Some funny comments in here.