San Diego Points For/Against Analysis (Long Read)

[Oswlek]

Alright, I have tabled a few things to put together the results for this matchup. This time it is going to be a little long due to analyzing the entire season, some trends and home/away. It is a lot of information and I will try to put it together in the manner that is easiest on the eyes, but if anyone has some recs on how to do it better, don't hesitate to let me know (or to actually *make* it clearer on your own :rocker: )

For those that need clarification on what these numbers mean, please review the thread for this past week's Jets game. All results for NE include the results of last week's game.

San Diego Season
PF - 30.8 vs. 20.9 ~ +9.9
PA - 18.9 vs. 19 ~ +0.1
Total ~ 10

San Diego Season excluding games Merriman missed
PF - 29.6 vs. 20.9 ~ +8.7
PA - 16.3 vs. 19.8 ~ +3.5
Total ~ 12.2

NE Season
PF - 24.8 vs. 20.1 ~ +4.7
PA - 14.9 vs. 20.1 ~ +5.2
Total ~ 9.9

* I have never seen a matchup where the scores where this close. Depending on the results of this game, I may have to take note of a certain spread necessary for the numbers to mean anything. I placed the numbers with Merriman to show that he obviously impacts the team greatly, although Charger fans should take note that, unless a whloe slew of guys missed the same four weeks, the only type of "results minus player X" that have been predictive are games minus the starting QB. The good news for SD is that all that has been required in the past is a lead of any kind to predict a win. The bad news is that I have never seen such a close season matchup and every single trend points to NE by a larger margin.

Home/Away

SD at home
PF - 31.1 vs. 21.8 ~ +9.3
PA - 16.5 vs. 18.9 ~ +2.4
Total ~ 11.7

NE Away
PF - 27.5 vs. 20.2 ~ +7.3
PA - 13.5 vs. 19.8 ~ +6.3
Total ~ 13.6

Last 8 games

SD (games do not include time Merriman missed or the Arizona game)
PF - 31 vs. 21.1 ~ +9.9
PA - 19.1 vs. 20.6 ~ +1.5
Total ~ 11.4

NE
PF - 27.6 vs. 20.6 ~ +7
PA - 15.3 vs. 20.1 ~ +4.8
Total ~ 11.8

Last 4 games

SD (excludes game against Arizona)
PF - 28 vs. 19.9 ~ +8.1
PA - 16.8 vs. 20.1 ~ +3.3
Total ~ 11.4

NE
PF - 35.3 vs. 20.9 ~ +14.4
PA - 16.8 vs. 20 ~ +3.2
Total ~ 17.6


Summary

If NE was the one in the lead over the entire season, I would have no problem saying that they have a 70% chance of winning this game, but they are not, so I cannot. This game is going to have to be a guinea pig of sorts because I have never had a team dominate the trends and not have a sesaon lead. I will say that if my life were on the line, I would side with NE; and this is only partly because I am a homer. It is mostly because the numbers indicate that SD has been great through the season, but NE is playing at a higher level and has been for a good time. Not only that, but home field actually grades out as a disadvantage for the Chargers.

One of the surprising results is just how low SD's defense grades out under this system. With the exception of one mark (the 4 week trend - which is a virtual tie) NE grades out at a minimum 2.9 points better on defense. By comparison, the Jets score of +4.7 since their bye week is more than a full point better than the best of SD's numbers.

For you Charger lurkers, please recognize that I went out of my way to be fair. Even though only QB absences have had any predictive value, I did use the 4 games prior to Merriman's absence in the 8 week trend. Using the games his missed would have worsened SD's score. The 4 week one conveniently coincided with his return and for both 4 and 8 I removed the Arizona game because that game would have downgraded SD unnecessarily.


For my thoughts on the game itself, I think that, aside from the obvious turnovers, penalties and third down, the two key aspects of this game are SD's pass rush and NE's red zone defense. SD's pass rush is remarkable, but everything that I have seen (and the numbers back this up) indicates to me that the Chargers can be had when the QB is kept upright. I think that if NE can stop SD's pass rush, NE will score at least 24 points. I don't think that NE can hold SD to less than 350 yards of offense and I expect SD to have at least 5 drives that make it inside NE's 30. That is why I believe that NE's red zone D is key. If NE can keep SD out of the end zone on three of those, that is 23 points.

I welcome your thoughts.

 

[Oswlek]

I should add that I think NE can and will stop San Diego's pass rush because I see a whole lot of similarities between the SD defense and the Pitt defenses that NE has handled relatively easily in the recent past.

 

[SVN]

how about strength of schedule in this mix ? does it make a difference in the nos ?

 

[Oswlek]

how about strength of schedule in this mix ? does it make a difference in the nos ?

Did you read the Jet one? When you see a line like:

PF - 30.8 vs. 20.9 ~ +9.9

It means that San Diego has average 30.8 points per game on the season. The average of thier opponents' averages is 20.9. So that means that SD has outscored what their opponents usually allow by almost 10 ppg on the season, which is a remarkable number.

By due process the numbers are weighted.

 

[PonyExpress]

Great job. It's so close to call. A dropped pass could mean the season. I hope they start D. Thomas over Watson this game.

 

[Patfandango]

Thanks for the analysis. The numbers are very close and clearly statistically indistinguishable. That, I think, is good for us. The Chargers aren;t so uch better that beating them is unlikely. Your data gives me more confidence in BB's gameplan and the leadership and experience of our veterans in the playoffs to be the deciding factors of a close game.

BTW did you do the analysis of the Pats with and without Rodney?

 

[Oswlek]

Thanks for the analysis. The numbers are very close and clearly statistically indistinguishable. That, I think, is good for us. The Chargers aren;t so uch better that beating them is unlikely. Your data gives me more confidence in BB's gameplan and the leadership and experience of our veterans in the playoffs to be the deciding factors of a close game.

BTW did you do the analysis of the Pats with and without Rodney?

No because it has not had any predictive benefit in the past. The only reason I put the Merriman one in there is because I know that Charger fans are going to be natrually skeptical of analysis like this found on a Pats site.

 

[Clonamery]

Superb....the Jets/Pats playoff game had more unpredictables but was still predictable. This game is scary close.

Great work as usual.

 

[boltssbbound]

You have to love any statistical analysis that concludes the Chargers are at a disadvantage at home when they were 8-0 at home and 6-2 on the road.

Also, why did you exclude the AZ game?

 

[Oswlek]

You have to love any statistical analysis that concludes the Chargers are at a disadvantage at home when they were 8-0 at home and 6-2 on the road.

They are not at a dissadvantage over the entire season. All you have to do is look at the +12.7 home score vs. the +10 season.

However, NE has been even more dominant on the road than SD has been at home. That is why home field will not be the determining factor.

Also, why did you exclude the AZ game?

A win by 7 points over Arizona was only 3.1 better than the average team's results over them. It would have worsened the trend scores and I didn't want to penalize SD for not killing a team when they clearly weren't trying that hard in the second half.

 

[abyzmul]

i acknowledge your attempt to provide a quality analysis, but there are some gaping holes in your thesis (as well as data inaccuracies).

Home/Away

SD at home
PF - 31.1 vs. 21.8 ~ +9.3
PA - 16.5 vs. 18.9 ~ +3.4
Total ~ 12.7

NE Away
PF - 27.5 vs. 20.2 ~ +7.3
PA - 13.5 vs. 19.8 ~ +6.3
Total ~ 13.6

san diego @ home scores 31.1 vs 21.8, a +9.3 differential
san diego @ home allows 16.5 vs. 18.9, a +2.4 differential (not 3.4)

san diego has also been plagued with key starters missing games due to injury and suspension on defense, but all starters will be healthy for the patriots. review the first few games of the season for the chargers in order to obtain an accurate picture as to what the patriots are in store for.

SD week 1 vs. Oakland
0 PA, 183 total yards (96 passing, 87 rushing), 9 sacks, 0 INT

SD week 2 vs. Tenessee
7 PA (with 3:09 remaining in the 4th), 218 total yards (163 passing, 55 rushing), 0 sacks, 2 INT

SD week 4 vs. Baltimore (week 3 was a bye)
16 PA (intentional safety after punter was hurt and TD with 34 seconds remaining), 214 total yards (158 passing, 56 rushing), 1 sack, 1 INT

to use the statistics that you provided paints an inaccurate picture as to what defense the patriots are going up against. the chargers, when healthy, have one of the best defenses in the league. they have 61 sacks on the season, a punishing run defense, above average corners, and mediocre safeties.

as much as patriot fans will argue using these ppg figures i can assure you that BB and friends would not agree with your skewed statistics. BB knows what he's up against --> the chargers at full strength.

 

[DagoTom]

No because it has not had any predictive benefit in the past. The only reason I put the Merriman one in there is because I know that Charger fans are going to be natrually skeptical of analysis like this found on a Pats site.

I know this will be sacreligious to some Charger fans, but I actually think we've missed Luis Castillo more than we missed Merriman. Merriman is a beast in the pass-rush and he makes a LOT of plays at or behind the LoS, which is always important. But Castillo is just a rock-solid defensive end. He only played 10 games this year but had 7 sacks and over 30 tackles...which is excellent production from a DE in the 3-4. But biggest of all...he is an anchor against the run, and it really seems like in the games he was out we were more vulnerable to the inside run, misidrection plays and screen than we had been.

I'm interested to see how the week off benefits this team. Guys like Shaun Phillips and Marlon McCree were playing with calf injuries (especially important for Shaun since he's a speed rusher who relies on his quick first-step) and we had Randall Godfrey and Castillo out for multiple games at the end of the year. Castillo came back for one game against the Chiefs and we held them under 10 points.

This game will literally be the first game since Game 1 (Olshansky was injured on the second play of the season) where we've had all of our defensive starters on the field at one time.

 

[Oswlek]

i acknowledge your attempt to provide a quality analysis, but there are some gaping holes in your thesis (as well as data inaccuracies).



san diego @ home scores 31.1 vs 21.8, a +9.3 differential
san diego @ home allows 16.5 vs. 18.9, a +2.4 differential (not 3.4)

san diego has also been plagued with key starters missing games due to injury and suspension on defense, but all starters will be healthy for the patriots. review the first few games of the season for the chargers in order to obtain an accurate picture as to what the patriots are in store for.

SD week 1 vs. Oakland
0 PA, 183 total yards (96 passing, 87 rushing), 9 sacks, 0 INT

SD week 2 vs. Tenessee
7 PA (with 3:09 remaining in the 4th), 218 total yards (163 passing, 55 rushing), 0 sacks, 2 INT

SD week 4 vs. Baltimore (week 3 was a bye)
16 PA (intentional safety after punter was hurt and TD with 34 seconds remaining), 214 total yards (158 passing, 56 rushing), 1 sack, 1 INT

to use the statistics that you provided paints an inaccurate picture as to what defense the patriots are going up against. the chargers, when healthy, have one of the best defenses in the league. they have 61 sacks on the season, a punishing run defense, above average corners, and mediocre safeties.

as much as patriot fans will argue using these ppg figures i can assure you that BB and friends would not agree with your skewed statistics. BB knows what he's up against --> the chargers at full strength.

1) Thank you for pointing out my error. It doesn't help SD, though.

2) The trend figures exclude games missed by Merriman.

3) I didn't get into it because I didn't feel that it was all that helpful, but IMHO the first two games are the least predictive games played by SD. Oakland's first game of the year and TN with a wholly embarrasing Kerry Collins are games that any objective person would expect to be significantly worse than the season averages.

As I said before, when SD gets their pass rush mojo on, they are a damn good defense. If they harrass Brady all game I can see NE struggle to score 14 points. But SD minus great QB pressure is not a great D. Very good, yes, but not great.

 

[abyzmul]

They are not at a dissadvantage over the entire season. All you have to do is look at the +12.7 home score vs. the +10 season.

the chargers are not at a disadvantage at home. they are undefeated, proving that home field is a large advantage in the chargers' favor.

However, NE has been even more dominant on the road than SD has been at home. That is why home field will not be the determining factor.

Patriots = 7-1 on the road
Chargers = 8-0 at home

therefore the chargers have been more dominant at home than the patriots have been on the road. that is why home field WILL BE a huge advantage for the chargers.

A win by 7 points over Arizona was only 3.1 better than the average team's results over them. It would have worsened the trend scores and I didn't want to penalize SD for not killing a team when they clearly weren't trying that hard in the second half.

but you rewarded the patriots for pounding the packers 35-0 and houston 40-7? what about minnesota 31-7? hmmm...

 

[Oswlek]

I know this will be sacreligious to some Charger fans, but I actually think we've missed Luis Castillo more than we missed Merriman. Merriman is a beast in the pass-rush and he makes a LOT of plays at or behind the LoS, which is always important. But Castillo is just a rock-solid defensive end. He only played 10 games this year but had 7 sacks and over 30 tackles...which is excellent production from a DE in the 3-4. But biggest of all...he is an anchor against the run, and it really seems like in the games he was out we were more vulnerable to the inside run, misidrection plays and screen than we had been.

I'm interested to see how the week off benefits this team. Guys like Shaun Phillips and Marlon McCree were playing with calf injuries (especially important for Shaun since he's a speed rusher who relies on his quick first-step) and we had Randall Godfrey and Castillo out for multiple games at the end of the year. Castillo came back for one game against the Chiefs and we held them under 10 points.

This game will literally be the first game since Game 1 (Olshansky was injured on the second play of the season) where we've had all of our defensive starters on the field at one time.

If Castillo and Olshansky are the difference makers that you describe than we shall see on Sunday.

Unfortunately I have not way to account for them.

 

[Oswlek]

the chargers are not at a disadvantage at home. they are undefeated, proving that home field is a large advantage in the chargers' favor.



Patriots = 7-1 on the road
Chargers = 8-0 at home

therefore the chargers have been more dominant at home than the patriots have been on the road. that is why home field WILL BE a huge advantage for the chargers.



but you rewarded the patriots for pounding the packers 35-0 and houston 40-7? what about minnesota 31-7? hmmm...

The basis of this analysis is scores, not wins/losses, although obviously when you win you will probably grade out better. But it is certainly possible to go 8-0 and grade out worse than a 7-1 team. You guys are acting as if I am making stuff up here and that is not the truth.

Do you really believe that a midseason thrashing of Green Bay or Minny (the week after they dominated Seattle) compares in any way to TN with Collins? Look, I didn't exclude those games because I ultimately determined that it was unfair to do so with the season score and ultimately the trends would do that anyway.

I didn't say that those could be excluded because they were SD's best games, but because of the circumstances that surrounded them. I can assure you that you would say the exact same thing if NE's best two games were 15 weeks ago against overly handicapped opposition.

Edited to add that I just realized that you were responding to my post about Arizona when you brought up NE vs. GB and Hou. Did you even read any of the numbers because excluding the Arizona game helps SD's score. Before you chastise something, please ensure that you understand it.

 

[PlattsFan]

I can't get over the feeling that Charger fans are just trying too hard here ... I mean, they're a good team and all, but it's a fairly even matchup. But, when you haven't won in soooo long, you can really overdo the optimism and trash-talking when you actually look pretty good. Believe me, as a fan of the Red Sox for many years, I know of what I speak.

Personally, I think the points analysis is right: it's a toss-up of a game, really close. I can't say who will win at all. Especially if Rodney's back ... if Rodney's out still, I give a small edge to the Chargers, but not enough to justify all the chest-thumping going on around here by Charger fans ... they haven't won anything yet. The playoffs are a whole 'nother ballgame.

 

[richpjr]

The Chargers roster is loaded and their regular season record speaks for itself. However, none of that means squat this week. The Patriots have a proven playoff track record, while the Chargers don't. If the Chargers want to move into the "elite" ranks of the NFL, they need to beat the Patriots. They have home field advantage, are healthy, and have had two weeks to prepare for the game. There are no excuses for them not to win.

 

[abyzmul]

1) Thank you for pointing out my error. It doesn't help SD, though.

2) The trend figures exclude games missed by Merriman.

3) I didn't get into it because I didn't feel that it was all that helpful, but IMHO the first two games are the least predictive games played by SD. Oakland's first game of the year and TN with a wholly embarrasing Kerry Collins are games that any objective person would expect to be significantly worse than the season averages.

As I said before, when SD gets their pass rush mojo on, they are a damn good defense. If they harrass Brady all game I can see NE struggle to score 14 points. But SD minus great QB pressure is not a great D. Very good, yes, but not great.

1) wasn't trying to skew facts, wanted to make sure the analysis was fair. i could've ignored it since it worked against the chargers but that wouldn't be right.

2) trend figures are an inaccurate depiction of the two teams.

3) the last 5 games of the season, however, were against much stronger opponents for the chargers than for the patriots. view:

SD last 5 : Buffalo, Denver, KC, Seattle, Arizona
NE last 5 : Detroit, Miami, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee

the only team the patriots faced that had a shot at going to the playoffs were the jags (tenn was a long-shot, and clearly not playoff caliber).

denver, was bumped out by SF.. KC and seattle both made it to the playoffs. so to look at the last few games and to try and compare the results from the chargers to patriots, you don't come anywhere near an accurate depiction of how the two teams are.

new england barely beat detroit and lost to houston.

 

[DagoTom]

If Castillo and Olshansky are the difference makers that you describe than we shall see on Sunday.

Unfortunately I have not way to account for them.

I wouldn't call Olshansky a difference-maker. Well, maybe. He does his job, which is to tie up blockers and open lanes for the linebackers. He's very much a prototypical 3-4 defensive end...he won't put up big numbers but he does his job. He's kind of Jamal Williams-lite. (And thank God Jamal was the one guy in the front-7 who was healthy all year. In reality he's probably the most important player on our defense.)

The reason Castillo is a difference-maker is that he does everything Olshansky does and he gets pressure on the QB and makes plays in the backfield. If teams double-up Jamal and rotate the LT out on Merriman, Castillo is the guy who can beat 1-on-1 blocking and get pressure. If teams double up Jamal and Luis, it usually leaves Merriman on a tight end or back and that's a mismatch.

Jacques Cesaire, Castillo's replacement, is more of a rotational guy and journeyman, and we missed Castillo's ability to disrupt.