Ryan Mallett: Is he as good as thought/hoped? Is he the future starting QB?

[Ring 6]

So the Patriots win the division and lose to the Broncos in the AFC Championship. Brady, as usual, plays lights out all year and the offense really gets on a roll the second half of the season as the young receivers really start to develop and Gronk is full health. The loss to the Broncs is 38-35 overtime @ Denver and the game ends with a Ridley fumble as the pats are driving... New rules, second possession of OT.

Meanwhile Jets are 5-11 and Geno has proven he is not the future after becoming the starter for the 0-3 Sanchez led Jets...

Offseason... Idzik calls... 2nd and a conditional 5th for Mallet... Yes or No?

Ridley couldn't choke in that game, if they ever got that far, Manning has all rights to choking in it.

No one is going to give a 2nd round pick for Mallet. No one was willing to use one on him in his own draft and he hasn't done anything to increase his draft value except be on the Patriots, which only increases his draft value in the eyes of some Patriot fans.

 

[Ring 6]

Please see post #175.

Yeah, I saw that, but there is no reason we would even consider doing it.

 

[Big_Wheel]

Ridley couldn't choke in that game, if they ever got that far, Manning has all rights to choking in it.

No one is going to give a 2nd round pick for Mallet. No one was willing to use one on him in his own draft and he hasn't done anything to increase his draft value except be on the Patriots, which only increases his draft value in the eyes of some Patriot fans.

Lol. Just trying to have some fun and see how much people really like Mallet. So let's "pretend" Mallet has a very strong preseason and there is other interest.

And It sounds like u are a definite yes as Mallet is not worth it.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Ryan Mallett: Is he as good as thought/hoped? Is he the future starting QB?

Yeah, I saw that, but there is no reason we would even consider doing it.

If god forbid there was a situation where Mallett stepped for Brady and performed well I think we'd play it out like we did with Cassel. Other than that I agree 100% with the notion we wouldnt do it. To say never though seems a bit overstated, considering we've done it in the bast and it worked out.

 

[Ring 6]

Lol. Just trying to have some fun and see how much people really like Mallet. So let's "pretend" Mallet has a very strong preseason and there is other interest.

And It sounds like u are a definite yes as Mallet is not worth it.

Third round picks who sit on the bench for 3 years dont get traded for 2nd round picks.

 

[Ring 6]

If god forbid there was a situation where Mallett stepped for Brady and performed well I think we'd play it out like we did with Cassel. Other than that I agree 100% with the notion we wouldnt do it. To say never though seems a bit overstated, considering we've done it in the bast and it worked out.

So you are now qualifying it with Brady gets injured and Mallet plays well enough that teams want to trade for him as a starter? That is not what the parameters were. What if Mallet wins powerball and doesn't want to play anymore?

 

[Sciz]

Third round picks who sit on the bench for 3 years dont get traded for 2nd round picks.

Not usually, but Charlie Whitehurst is a third round pick that was traded along with the 60th pick for the 40th pick and the next year's 89th pick after throwing zero regular season passes in four seasons. Stupid decisions do happen, but they're not the type of thing you want to plan on.

 

[Ring 6]

Not usually, but Charlie Whitehurst is a third round pick that was traded along with the 60th pick for the 40th pick and the next year's 89th pick after throwing zero regular season passes in four seasons. Stupid decisions do happen, but they're not the type of thing you want to plan on.

So thats him and a 2nd for a higher 2nd and 3rd next year.
That doesn't look like he returned any more value than his draft slot.

 

[Sciz]

So thats him and a 2nd for a higher 2nd and 3rd next year.
That doesn't look like he returned any more value than his draft slot.

Depending on how you value that next year's 3rd, it ended up being a late 2nd or early 3rd pick points-wise, about a 15-20 pick jump in value from where Whitehurst was picked and way better than letting him leave as a free agent.

 

[ausbacker]

Depending on how you value that next year's 3rd, it ended up being a late 2nd or early 3rd pick points-wise, about a 15-20 pick jump in value from where Whitehurst was picked and way better than letting him leave as a free agent.

The only real issue I see with trading Mallett next draft period is that the 2014 NFL Draft is filled with better QB prospects than the 2013 NFL Draft. Will teams be willing to trade for Mallett given that qualification?

 

[Ring 6]

Depending on how you value that next year's 3rd, it ended up being a late 2nd or early 3rd pick points-wise, about a 15-20 pick jump in value from where Whitehurst was picked and way better than letting him leave as a free agent.

I dont think so.
a 3 next year = a 4 this year.
So they traded a 3(whitehurst) for a 4 (the value this year of the future 3) to move up 20 spots.

60 and a 3rd now (assigned value for Whitehurt) for 40 and a 3 next year doesn't seem to be that far off.

Or put another way, they traded him for a 2nd, but to do so had to throw in a 2nd and get back a 3d next year. Thats not close to being traded for a 2nd.

 

[Sciz]

I dont think so.
a 3 next year = a 4 this year.
So they traded a 3(whitehurst) for a 4 (the value this year of the future 3) to move up 20 spots.

60 and a 3rd now (assigned value for Whitehurt) for 40 and a 3 next year doesn't seem to be that far off.

Or put another way, they traded him for a 2nd, but to do so had to throw in a 2nd and get back a 3d next year. Thats not close to being traded for a 2nd.

Going by the chart (it's validity is another argument), 40 is 500 points and 60 is 300.

If you count the future 3rd as an average 4th round pick (because they didn't know what it would be at the time), then it's 70 points. If you count it as one round later than the 89th pick that they actually ended up getting, then it's 52. That puts Whitehurst in the 252-270 point range, or about picks 64-68, or (very) late second to early third.

 

[Brady6]

So you are now qualifying it with Brady gets injured and Mallet plays well enough that teams want to trade for him as a starter? That is not what the parameters were. What if Mallet wins powerball and doesn't want to play anymore?

Hmm; I was actually just responding to the statement in post 167 that inaccurately stated it would cost $20 million to franchise Mallett. I was attempting to clarify the fact it would only be $20 million because we would only do it to retain his rights for the purpose of trade (Similar to Cassel entering 2009) and because the compensation for a non-exclusive franchise tag is a 1st round pick (which would likely be more than we could dream to get in a trade) we’d have no reason to tag him exclusively. I pointed out the Brady injury; Mallett stepping in scenario because that would be the only foreseeable reason that I could see Mallett being tagged becoming a reality.

I do have to point out that Brady currently has a 1 in 13 chance of having a season ending knee injury occur (based on his current years played) and the chances of winning the Powerball is 1 in 175,223,510.00, I’m not so sure that is the best comparison the NFL has the shortest career and most injuries of any professional sport. I pray nothing happens to Brady because it would be devastating to the team and also to me personally because he is my favorite NFL player but it is not even close to the unlikeliness of winning the Powerball.

 

[Ring 6]

Going by the chart (it's validity is another argument), 40 is 500 points and 60 is 300.

If you count the future 3rd as an average 4th round pick (because they didn't know what it would be at the time), then it's 70 points. If you count it as one round later than the 89th pick that they actually ended up getting, then it's 52. That puts Whitehurst in the 252-270 point range, or about picks 64-68, or (very) late second to early third.

Sounds about right.

Just saying if the question is could you trade a guy picked in the 3rd who did nothing for a 2nd, in this example they had to throw in a 2nd then swap a 3 for a future 3.

I think basically we agree that getting more than the 3 spent on Mallet after 3 years holding a clipboard is a longshot at best.

 

[supafly]

The only real issue I see with trading Mallett next draft period is that the 2014 NFL Draft is filled with better QB prospects than the 2013 NFL Draft. Will teams be willing to trade for Mallett given that qualification?

Certainly one of the questions that is relevant to the matter, along with the fact that he's a free agent the very next year, and of course the huge question of how much he's proven/developed.

 

[Ring 6]

Hmm; I was actually just responding to the statement in post 167 that inaccurately stated it would cost $20 million to franchise Mallett. I was attempting to clarify the fact it would only be $20 million because we would only do it to retain his rights for the purpose of trade (Similar to Cassel entering 2009) and because the compensation for a non-exclusive franchise tag is a 1st round pick (which would likely be more than we could dream to get in a trade) we’d have no reason to tag him exclusively. I pointed out the Brady injury; Mallett stepping in scenario because that would be the only foreseeable reason that I could see Mallett being tagged becoming a reality.

I do have to point out that Brady currently has a 1 in 13 chance of having a season ending knee injury occur (based on his current years played) and the chances of winning the Powerball is 1 in 175,223,510.00, I’m not so sure that is the best comparison the NFL has the shortest career and most injuries of any professional sport. I pray nothing happens to Brady because it would be devastating to the team and also to me personally because he is my favorite NFL player but it is not even close to the unlikeliness of winning the Powerball.

I used the analogy (granted a smart ass one, sorry, dont take it personally) because its not just Brady getting injured (by the way its more like 1 in 200 because its the number of injuries to games, not seasons that would determine the chance of a week 1 season ender but I digress) but it is also Mallet coming in and playing well enough that another team would want to trade a high pick for him and pay him 15 million.
The odds of winning powerball are probably higher than the odds of a QB playing part of 1 season getting paid 15 mill, based on the history of it never happening before.

Again, if that sounds smart ass, dont take it personally.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

Hmm; I was actually just responding to the statement in post 167 that inaccurately stated it would cost $20 million to franchise Mallett. I was attempting to clarify the fact it would only be $20 million because we would only do it to retain his rights for the purpose of trade (Similar to Cassel entering 2009) and because the compensation for a non-exclusive franchise tag is a 1st round pick (which would likely be more than we could dream to get in a trade) we’d have no reason to tag him exclusively. I pointed out the Brady injury; Mallett stepping in scenario because that would be the only foreseeable reason that I could see Mallett being tagged becoming a reality.

I do have to point out that Brady currently has a 1 in 13 chance of having a season ending knee injury occur (based on his current years played) and the chances of winning the Powerball is 1 in 175,223,510.00, I’m not so sure that is the best comparison the NFL has the shortest career and most injuries of any professional sport. I pray nothing happens to Brady because it would be devastating to the team and also to me personally because he is my favorite NFL player but it is not even close to the unlikeliness of winning the Powerball.

I feel like it was a gamble with Cassel -- Cassel could've easily said "I'm going to play for the franchise tag money for a year and then let the chips fall where they may after that". And it might've been in his financial best interest to do so. But KC may have still been willing to do that as he was proven as being a decent starter with upside (maybe not for a second rounder)

If Mallet gets offered the franchise tag, If I were him, I'd sign it immediately cause there's no way he's getting that a free agent offer for more than 18m no matter no matter what the years are.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Ryan Mallett: Is he as good as thought/hoped? Is he the future starting QB?

I used the analogy (granted a smart ass one, sorry, dont take it personally) because its not just Brady getting injured (by the way its more like 1 in 200 because its the number of injuries to games, not seasons that would determine the chance of a week 1 season ender but I digress) but it is also Mallet coming in and playing well enough that another team would want to trade a high pick for him and pay him 15 million.
The odds of winning powerball are probably higher than the odds of a QB playing part of 1 season getting paid 15 mill, based on the history of it never happening before.

Again, if that sounds smart ass, dont take it personally.

Not taking it personally I was just rolling with it for some light hearted conversation. I think very highly of you as both a brilliant football mind and a member of this site, as you know, this little back and forth over lottery odds has not and would never change my feelings

 

[Brady6]

I feel like it was a gamble with Cassel -- Cassel could've easily said "I'm going to play for the franchise tag money for a year and then let the chips fall where they may after that". And it might've been in his financial best interest to do so. But KC may have still been willing to do that as he was proven as being a decent starter with upside (maybe not for a second rounder)

If Mallet gets offered the franchise tag, If I were him, I'd sign it immediately cause there's no way he's getting that a free agent offer for more than 18m no matter no matter what the years are.

I think the Cassel situation was more of a calculated risk then a gamble, I'm sure there were conversation surrounding the franchise tag and a long term deal with another team if traded prior to them placing the tag.

It also doesn't really matter if he plays for the tag price or signs a long term deal, all that matters is that a team is willing to trade for him, in hindsight I'm sure KC wishes they made that trade with Cassel only signed to his franchise tender instead of to the long term deal they have him.

If Mallett was ever to step in and lead this team to a 11-5 record I'm sure a team would trade for him on the 1 year tag or on a long term deal. I'd say the chance of any of it happening are 0.01% range.

 

[mgteich]

So, by extension, we cannot recover the value of a 2011 3rd, even if we get a end of the round first next year.

I dont think so.
a 3 next year = a 4 this year.
So they traded a 3(whitehurst) for a 4 (the value this year of the future 3) to move up 20 spots.

60 and a 3rd now (assigned value for Whitehurt) for 40 and a 3 next year doesn't seem to be that far off.

Or put another way, they traded him for a 2nd, but to do so had to throw in a 2nd and get back a 3d next year. Thats not close to being traded for a 2nd.