Reviewing Brady's Contract - Will Brady Really Play For $8M A Year?

[mgteich]

When Brady extended in 2013, almost everyone agreed that Brady wanted the guarantees. After all, he got $16.5M a year for 2013 and 2014 (signing bonus plus salaries). While this is not top quarterback money, he also got a guarantee of $24M if he were to be injured in 2013 or 2014.

SO HERE WE ARE
Brady's contract for 2015-2017 is guaranteed. The new money cost is $8M a year for three years. AS OF NOW, this is great deal for the patriots and a terrible deal for Brady. Brady certainly performed to the $16.5M level for 2013 and 2014, so nothing is "owed" either way.

The reason for media speculation should be obvious. Brady will be giving the patriots a HUGE discount starting in 2015, after playing for a reasonable contract for the past two years (still lower than some others were paid).

The OPEN speculative question is whether Brady will NOW play for the patriots for more than a 50% discount. I have no doubt that at least several of teams would pay Brady $20M a year, basically the deal that Manning secured. And given Brady's health, he should be able to secure more than $24M guaranteed of his present deal. And if you don't think that teams would pay $20M, certainly a 3 year $16M AAV contract would be reasonable (double the patriot deal).

BOTTOM LINE
The NFL is indeed a business. Players don't often voluntarily play for less than half their worth.
Brady signed a good deal for everyone. The contract structure made the contract a 2-part contract. So, here we are.

 

[bigballas]

Players don't often voluntarily play for less than half their worth.

Few thoughts:
1) maybe he understands his value can brand equity can skyrocket post career if he wins another ring (or two) and the best way to do that is have money for other players. It's clear his wife makes more than enought money per year than most NFL players make in their career

2) Who knows what conversations have happened (and not implying collusion) but he's bascially guaranteed 24M by the end of year which could really be for 2015 and either after that he gets a new contract to get him up to par and be favorable to salary cap or he can sit out having earned $24M for 2015 season which would probably be top (or near top if new contracts are signed) for QB

3) there was speculation of long term equity for him and under the table deals ... who knows.

Lets see how things shake out

 

[james87654]

i hope he honors the contract that he voluntarily signed

 

[Gronkowski123]

brady only signed that deal because his wife is giselle!

 

[mgteich]

Few thoughts:
1) maybe he understands his value can brand equity can skyrocket post career if he wins another ring (or two) and the best way to do that is have money for other players. It's clear his wife makes more than enought money per year than most NFL players make in their career

2) Who knows what conversations have happened (and not implying collusion) but he's bascially guaranteed 24M by the end of year which could really be for 2015 and either after that he gets a new contract to get him up to par and be favorable to salary cap or he can sit out having earned $24M for 2015 season which would probably be top (or near top if new contracts are signed) for QB

3) there was speculation of long term equity for him and under the table deals ... who knows.

Lets see how things shake out

Brady cannot quit after 2015 and receive his $24M. The guarantees are for $7M, $8m and $9M. If he quits after 2016, he will have received $7M for his 2015 services.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I haven't seen the media speculation, but I live in the hinterlands of Patriots Nation... is there speculation?

The OP here reads like he will be a free agent for those three years... he is under contract. He could play for another football league, but at present isn't he locked into the Pats if he wants to play in the NFL?

Now that said, he could hold out if he really wanted to.

I can't really fathom the mind of people with these enormous amounts of money at their disposal. It is much easier to think about the situation if their lives would really change based on the amount of $... in Brady's case, I could see him playing for $8m a year, but how can I even imagine the calculus, beyond the sorts of things we've brought up? (I.e., <whew> we're through the expensive years, now I can play with Revis on the other side of the field for 3 years if I am happy with $8m... etc.)

He also doesn't seem to have the "I value myself based on where my contract falls on the list of active players" thing. But how do I know? I just know what I see at pressers. Maybe anybody who could make $20m would chafe at taking 8. I have heard the phrase among self-employed people, "If you work for free, you're saying your work isn't worth anything." (I.e., when they discussed billing.) Maybe something like that is operative in anybody's mind in the 8 vs. 20 million version of the same thought.

What is the media speculation, if any, thus far?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

brady only signed that deal because his wife is giselle!

Yes. Were he not married to Giselle, I would expect to see him in 5 years in front of a convenience store with a cup full of change in his hand. I'd be all like "Tom Brady you asked me for tree fitty yesterday, now don't bother me 'til next week."

 

[The Boston Patriot]

Should I worry if Tom is going to hold out and not honor his contract? Throw bad passes to get even with the cheap Pats and Kraft? Be a malcontent in the locker room? I need to know how worked up I should get over this and why is this being brought up right before the playoff season and the SB? Is this Ron Borges or that other clown from the herald and they have hacked mgteich's account? Maybe the Bucs will send us their first round draft pick for him. Time to dump this guy if he is going to give the team trouble.

If I hear the douchbag and the dog turd talking about this next week I will know there is a conspiracy brewing and this was not just a happenstance.

 

[mgteich]

The OP here reads like he will be a free agent for those three years... he is under contract. He could play for another football league, but at present isn't he locked into the Pats if he wants to play in the NFL?

Now that said, he could hold out if he really wanted to.

What if Brady's salaries for 2015, 2016 and 2017 were $2M a year, an $18M discount, instead of only $12M?

The reality is that contracts are structured so that there are decision points for the player and for the team. When this contract was negotiated, the salaries for the last three years could have been $14M, $16M and $18M. But they weren't.

The setup was clear. If Brady decline some, then these contract amounts would be reasonable. If not, then Brady has a decision to make.

And yes, Brady can send his agent to Belichick the week after the Super Bowl and indicate that he isn't playing 2015 for $7M making him one of the lowest paid starting quarterbacks in the NFL, not won a rookie contract. Brady can clearly afford to sit out. The ball would be in Belichick's court.

BOTTOM LINE
In 2013, Brady did NOT give the team a huge discount, just a little one. And yes, it did help the team's cap situation a lot. 2015 is a new year, with a new set of circumstances. Maybe brady is willing to be one of the lowest paid veteran quarterbacks starting in the league, perhaps not.

 

[mgteich]

Should I worry if Tom is going to hold out and not honor his contract? Throw bad passes to get even with the cheap Pats and Kraft? Be a malcontent in the locker room? I need to know how worked up I should get over this and why is this being brought up right before the playoff season and the SB? Is this Ron Borges or that other clown from the herald and they have hacked mgteich's account? Maybe the Bucs will send us their first round draft pick for him. Time to dump this guy if he is going to give the team trouble.

If I hear the douchbag and the dog turd talking about this next week I will know there is a conspiracy brewing and this was not just a happenstance.

This is not what is being discussed. This is not about playing poorly or negotiating in the locker room (that will be empty at the time). The NFL is a business. Brady's agent could ask for a meeting with Belichick the week after the Super Bowl and indicate that his client will not be playing in 2015 as one of the lowest paid veteran quarterbacks in the league, OR NOT. The situation is really that simple.

Sure, Brady could play 2015 for $7M and then consider what to do in 2016, but that makes little sense.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

BOTTOM LINE
In 2013, Brady did NOT give the team a huge discount, just a little one. And yes, it did help the team's cap situation a lot. 2015 is a new year, with a new set of circumstances. Maybe brady is willing to be one of the lowest paid veteran quarterbacks starting in the league, perhaps not.

Like I said, my response might just be wishful thinking. Of course, we all have to think through *who* we'll be losing next year, not whether we'll lose anybody. My wishful thinking is that TFB will play cheap (as his contract says) and enable a bit more latitude on the other side of the field. Of course you have to wonder about that $25m Revis number.

 

[hwc]

If Brady wants more money from another team, I suspect the Pats would entertain a trade with the Raiders for two first round picks.

His contract makes him attractive to the Pats and to potential trade partners. The Pats could even keep him as a backup through the end of his current contract, although I doubt Brady would go for that.

 

[Luxusdk]

Brady got everything to Loose and nothing to win by holding out. He got a clean reputation and is a HOF Lock. He aint playing for the Money at age 38 but trying to get 1-2 more rings to add to his legacy.

I have offen wondered if there are rules in place to make sure players get x millions? Or could it be posibel some old players WHO have made the bank, makes a deal and plays together for slim to nothing?

 

[mgteich]

Of course you have to wonder about that $25m Revis number.

Revis will either get a new contract before the season starts or he won't. The $12.5M bonus will never be paid. That bonus was put there to prevent the patriots from franchising Revis in 2105. There will be the $5M of deferred/dead money no matter what contract Revis signs.

So, we start with a $20M savings against the cap.

The 2015 cap of a new Revis contract (if there is one) can be anywhere between $5M and $15M (I think $7M is reasonable), even if the contract averages $16M a year. And yes, Revis is more than fine to play for $20M.

 

[rochrist]

i hope he honors the contract that he voluntarily signed

Your avatar doesn't. He's been on about this for two years already.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

We have some more insight into what Brady could be considering here than we have into how putative alien artificial intelligences think. Speculation can be fun, but pointless in the absence of new hard information. And that's assuming he's spending any time considering this issue now as he closes in on a goal we pretty much all believe means very, very much to him.

 

[The Boomer]

Brady and Kraft both have legacies to consider. Perhaps they can approach this in a manner similar to how Ortiz is being allowed to finish his career in Boston. Tear up Brady's current contract and pay him next season what he was paid this year. Guarantee that last $8 million dollars season in 2016. If 2015 continues up to everyone's standards, extend, rinse and repeat. This rewards Brady for as long as he continues to drink from that fountain of youth and always gives both parties the option for that one last discounted season after the inevitable decline arrives or to walk away after that point.

 

[mgteich]

Brady and Kraft both have legacies to consider. Perhaps they can approach this in a manner similar to how Ortiz is being allowed to finish his career in Boston. Tear up Brady's current contract and pay him next season what he was paid this year. Guarantee that last $8 million dollars season in 2016. If 2015 continues up to everyone's standards, extend, rinse and repeat. This rewards Brady for as long as he continues to drink from that fountain of youth and always gives both parties the option for that one last discounted season after the inevitable decline arrives or to walk away after that point.

I don't understand what you are suggesting. The market for top quarterbacks is about $20M a year. What are you suggesting offering Brady?

Manning is being paid $20M a year and can be cut at any time, or can retire at any time. Somehow DEN has afforded this and done reasonably well.

 

[hwc]

I don't think the New England Patriots have any incentive to do anything with Brady's contract. It's a great contract for them from here on out. The only thing they can't do is cut him.

They have Brady and his heir apparent under contract for very reasonable money (combined) for the next three seasons. If Brady stays healthy and plays well, great. If he continues to decline, they have the option of starting Garappolo at any time during the 2015, 2016, or 2017 seasons. Brady would clearly be the best backup in the NFL at any point in that stretch. If he retires, he retires. If a team knocks the Pats over with a blockbuster trade deal, they cross that bridge when it happens.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Makes sense. As long as TFB is good with that which some feel he is not. I have no way of knowing.
Will sacrifice body & sleep with Gisele to get inside info.
(Do not email this to wife)