Reviewing Brady's Contract - Will Brady Really Play For $8M A Year?

[hwc]

The problem with your question is that you're operating under an assumption that few of us on this board share: namely, that Brady only has one quality year of play left. It's certainly possible, but it's by no means certain.

The only thing we really know is that he has, at most, a few more quality years. There have only been a few QBs in the NFL who started games at age 40. Testaverde and Favre are the two most recent examples. Both were finished. Favre was taking a beating, if I recall. Unitas-esque.

I don't think anyone wants to see Tom Brady go out like that.

 

[woolster22]

If Brady wants to play into his 40's, the selfish business type in me hopes he follows the lead of Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki. Brady commanding a team with no weaknesses would be nirvana.

With his documented, thorough, whole body/mind approach to staying "healthy," I'm sure he has looked at the aforementioned examples. Was it Vrabel who had no agent? He has seen examples of the "company guy." Sure, Vince could be an example against that argument. However, Vince got boned by the team early, I'd stick to my guns in the same situation as well. What Revis does is the most important off-season decision coming. He seems to be a well respected leader on that sideline. I'm sure the younger guys on defense are listening to him, regarding money and winning.

 

[woolster22]

I think that you would think that Manning would really want to win if he reduced his slaty to $1M when the market was $20M or more. And perhaps Brady will do the same. The market is say $21M. Let's see if he plays at 1/3 his worth. If he really wants to win, he will ask the team to reduce his salary by another $6M to $1M.

BTW, please list the players who have done this in the NFL. Obviously, some players like Bruschi volunteered to play for less. But this is very rare, and is not done by top players.

Did I confuse the "Bruuuu" with Vrabel?

 

[woolster22]

Random thoughts:

1) Brady works too hard every hour of every day to play backup. If that were to come, the Patriots would trade him -- not to earn more money, but more importantly to be a starter elsewhere. If his skill declines too much to play with average receivers, some team stacked with great receivers would still want to take him and he's too competitive not to take that opportunity.

2) Brady built his own medical complex across the street from Gillette stadium a couple of years ago. You could say he put all the money from the new contract towards building a health facility across from the Patriots headquarters just to be able to play longer.

3) Brady is a leader who wants each player to be their best. Playing for too cheap sends a bad signal to the rest of the team, even if that leaves more money for them. He needs to be on the side of the player ("be the best you can and earn good money"), not the organization ("I'm taking a pay cut, so should you!"), or the team will lose faith in him as a leader.*

4) All of this points to the fact that Brady will start in Gillette next year, and they will pay him something reasonable. Making 7m when Manning makes 20m is too low. Maybe 14m as a one-year contract. And that will also encourage Revis to take a 14m one-year contract as well.

--
* Regarding #3:

The top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL have an age range of 25 to 38, I'm guessing. The top 5, maybe 29 to 38. That means there's an elite quarterback once every 3-5 years, on average (never-mind Hall of Fame).

What percentage of NFL players are in their early twenties (<= 25?) You're taking a bruising to get paid the veteran minimum hoping you'll be playing for more money at 26, if at all. They're looking up to him to copy his worth ethic so they can also be the best they can be. If his actions are to earn 30% of what he's worth, and he's already rich, it sends the signal to the players that the Patriots are cheap and he's encouraging them to work harder than anyone else in the NFL just to earn 1/3 of what they're worth. If he made 85% (instead of 30%) of what he's worth and made sure the players know that's his own personal decision, that's definitely a positive statement.

Or you could simply argue that Brady and Giselle have, and continue to make plenty. In taking the lesser deal, Brady would be allowing money to be spent on other contracts. "Just win."

 

[Ivan]

I believe Brady would play under the terms of the deal, I just don't think the Patriots see that as the best approach to the situation. I think they will try to get a new deal done that will allow him to end his career here over the next 4-5 seasons. There aren't to many situations where the Krafts step in but when out comes to Brady I think they will weigh in hard. Belichick will have final say inn football terms but the Krafts know how integral Brady is to their winner identity and will try to structure a deal that pays him well but it's still a good deal for the team. Imo Brady will make them glad they did.

 

[kennyb]

Random thoughts:

1) Brady works too hard every hour of every day to play backup. If that were to come, the Patriots would trade him -- not to earn more money, but more importantly to be a starter elsewhere. If his skill declines too much to play with average receivers, some team stacked with great receivers would still want to take him and he's too competitive not to take that opportunity.

2) Brady built his own medical complex across the street from Gillette stadium a couple of years ago. You could say he put all the money from the new contract towards building a health facility across from the Patriots headquarters just to be able to play longer.

3) Brady is a leader who wants each player to be their best. Playing for too cheap sends a bad signal to the rest of the team, even if that leaves more money for them. He needs to be on the side of the player ("be the best you can and earn good money"), not the organization ("I'm taking a pay cut, so should you!"), or the team will lose faith in him as a leader.*

4) All of this points to the fact that Brady will start in Gillette next year, and they will pay him something reasonable. Making 7m when Manning makes 20m is too low. Maybe 14m as a one-year contract. And that will also encourage Revis to take a 14m one-year contract as well.

--
* Regarding #3:

The top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL have an age range of 25 to 38, I'm guessing. The top 5, maybe 29 to 38. That means there's an elite quarterback once every 3-5 years, on average (never-mind Hall of Fame).

What percentage of NFL players are in their early twenties (<= 25?) You're taking a bruising to get paid the veteran minimum hoping you'll be playing for more money at 26, if at all. They're looking up to him to copy his worth ethic so they can also be the best they can be. If his actions are to earn 30% of what he's worth, and he's already rich, it sends the signal to the players that the Patriots are cheap and he's encouraging them to work harder than anyone else in the NFL just to earn 1/3 of what they're worth. If he made 85% (instead of 30%) of what he's worth and made sure the players know that's his own personal decision, that's definitely a positive statement.

He's already under contract. Taking more money so there's less for his teammates is good for his teammates?

And by playing under a new one year deal next year the pats would eat 18m in dead money cap hits. So his cap hit would go from 13M to 32m under your reasonable approach. Great idea.

And it's not a "medical complex" it's a sports therapy office. Not exactly a huge capital outlay. So I don't think Brady sunk 10 million plus dollars into it. It wouldn't make sense. He needs his own personal mri machine?

 

[kennyb]

I believe Brady would play under the terms of the deal, I just don't think the Patriots see that as the best approach to the situation. I think they will try to get a new deal done that will allow him to end his career here over the next 4-5 seasons. There aren't to many situations where the Krafts step in but when out comes to Brady I think they will weigh in hard. Belichick will have final say inn football terms but the Krafts know how integral Brady is to their winner identity and will try to structure a deal that pays him well but it's still a good deal for the team. Imo Brady will make them glad they did.

Why would the pats not want him to play out this deal? Why extend now? There's not much cap room to be gained. Why is Brady playing for 3 more years of modest cap hits not the "best approach" for the team? Why would they want to redo that and take 18m in cap hits from unamortized bonuses? They can sign him to a new deal in 3 years. Why would Kraft intervene now? Makes no sense.

The op is talking about Brady demanding more money under the current contract ie holding out or threatening to. Did you read the op?

 

[Cantabrigian]

Might these numbers help? His wife is not just making a little more money than Brady. Gisele is making tons more. Forbes estimated that she made $47 million last year. That's $128,000 a day. Her total income since 2001 is $386million ($427 million if adjusted for inflation). Heck, when she took a break from modelling in 2004, she still raked in $10.5 million from endorsements alone.

Coming back to Tom, we can ask why top athletes chase top dollar when they are signing their contracts. In many cases, they have lots of people dependent on them financially and they also have a limited shelf-life. So they have to do all out to squeeze every dime out of their contracts and endorsements.

I think Tom will be different. A. He is already financially secure and his wife's earnings makes it doubly so. B. He is very picky about his endorsement deals and won't sell out like a certain QB in Denver to get his face plastered everywhere. If money was important to him, he would have done that. C. He had repeatedly made deals which have been team friendly. Point D. I think his kids have grown up to an age when they are settled and he might not want to jeopardise this by moving to a new city.

Point A to me, is the important thing. I see other players take hometown discounts or championship run discounts only because they are already financially secure and are willing to prioritise other factors. He probably knows that the team could use the cap space afforded by his contract to keep the likes of Revis in town and give him the best chance at getting those 4th and 5th rings and cementing his legacy.

Even if he was to be selfish and think only about the money, he is probably aware that his marketability in the future could only be enhanced by having more rings and being universally acknowledged as the best QB to have ever lived. So future endorsements, etc, would only be improved by him being saavy now and pushing towards championships.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I predicted he'd extend for much less than the market rate back in 2013. I was called an idiot. But I was right.

Brady wants to win. More money for other players increases the chance of a superbowl win. He's also rich and simply doesn't need the money even without his wife. He probably has 100m in the bank he's going to break a contract to get 5 more? Isn't he the guy who said "at the end of the day what's an extra million dollars"?

Now you posit that he may hold our or sandbag to force a trade or higher contract. That's the last thing he'd do. That would cost him more in lower endorsements alone than he'd make in higher salary elsewhere. He'd be a spoiled rich kid malcontent. He'd also ruin his legacy of 4 or 5 sb wins by going to a loser team with a new system. Yes he may insist on a contender but realistically his best chance is here.

Also Brady knew exactly what he was doing. Teams have decision points they have the option. Players don't unless they want to retire.

So in short I think the point is 180 degrees off course.

It doesn't sound like most posters on this board yet understand Tom Brady. Maybe I'm the one who's thinking is off, but I doubt it.

Tom Brady is not and never has been primarily about the money. The fact that he has already earned a huge sum in the NFL over his career makes it easier to be this way. The oft-noted fact that his wife makes even more than him means that he'll probably never have to worry about money as long as they do reasonable things the rest of their lives.

Tom Brady is about playing football and winning. He's not like other players. The SI article that came out last week made that clear - but I think this has been clear from the moment he stepped on the field and first met Robert Kraft (I'm the best decision this franchise has ever made). His focus and passion haven't dimmed one iota during the past 14 years that I can tell.

When TB signed his contract 2 years ago, I couldn't believe how almost everyone assumed that it would be renegotiated within a few years. You don't understand - Tom Brady intends to play for that money. He's always intended to play for the money in the contract. It was always a below market contract and he was happy with that. Yes, it had guarantees of money in case of injury that means it might not have been quite the discount that some were making it. But would another QB around TB's level signing 2 years ago for $50 million guaranteed and $100 million overall for 5 years surprised anyone ? Not me. That would have been a market-level deal for one of the top QBs of all time. But that's not what TB signed for.

Stop talking about TB playing 3 or less years. Yes, that's a (very) reasonable discussion for us to have about football players in general and quarterbacks specifically. But everyone knows if they've been paying attention that this is not Tom Brady's thinking. Tom Brady not only wants to play until he's 45 or 48 (or even 50), he's fanatical about it. Tom Brady's successor is not on this team in TB's mind. He's probably not in college yet. Admittedly, this would be breaking new ground in the NFL (kicker and part-time QB George Blanda aside), but Tom Brady doesn't lack the confidence or the dedication or the ability to do this. In fact, I expect it of him. And given what Tom Brady has told us about himself, you should too (career ending injuries aside). I will not be surprised if TB is playing QB of the NE Patriots at 45 and still doing it at a high level. If Belichick intends to retire before he's 70 (as he's said), he may retire with TB still playing QB of the NE Patriots.

So this discussion about what is going to happen to TB's contract is just foolishness from TB's perspective. He is in an ideal situation with a great owner, a great coach and a great winning tradition. He is beloved in New England and by many around the country. Every year the Patriots field a team that could win the Super Bowl (with better odds than in 2001 ). What's not to love? Not everyone is driven by pride, greed or need to get the money. Tom Brady isn't; he's living a near perfect life anyway.

Stop thinking that TB is like you or like other athletes. He's not - in so many ways. He's himself. He's shown us enough of himself over the years that if we don't understand that, the problem is us.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

You're assuming that the contract allows them to do that. For all we know there's a clause that prevents that from happening.

I think assuming the contract allows the Patriots to attempt to recoup the large amount of up front money is more reasonable than assuming otherwise.

 

[Galeb]

It seems pretty obvious. The terms of this contract are simply another aspect of his desire to play, preferably with the Pats, well into his 40s.

 

[1960Pats]

In my previous message board life I remember all of the hullabaloo when Brady signed this contract. The two sides were arguing about the deal being worth more or less than market value. As it turns out now, it averages out to be a little less than average for a top QB.

Wasn't there something out there at the time Brady signed that suggested it was his idea to do such a team friendly deal? Then when Welker left the Pats were criticized for not spending, even though Brady gave them that deal? I suppose I could look it up. Maybe later.

It always looked like a deal that would help Brady stay here, and for that I'm grateful. I'm pretty sure that's how he wants it too.

It works as a bargaining chip to the Pats to know a player wants to stay, but I doubt the Pats will ever use that against Brady. He's gold.

It really would be great to see the Pats have success with Brady while he was being paid a fraction of what the other QBs were making? Just think about how much fun that would be.

 

[1960Pats]

BTW, how would folks feel if Manning reduced his 2015 salary to $1M so that the team could use the other $19M on other players? Folks point to examples of other sports. How about this NFL example?

I keep trying and trying, but I just can't get myself to picture Manning playing for anything less than top dollar. It's just not in his DNA. Same with Drew Brees.

Brady has never had that problem. Just one more thing to like about him.

 

[1960Pats]

It seems pretty obvious. The terms of this contract are simply another aspect of his desire to play, preferably with the Pats, well into his 40s.

Yup.

 

[Galeb]

Wasn't there something out there at the time Brady signed that suggested it was his idea to do such a team friendly deal? Then when Welker left the Pats were criticized for not spending, even though Brady gave them that deal? I suppose I could look it up. Maybe later.

I read a Kraft quote where he said that he presented the foundation this deal to Brady personally. I think Kraft appealed to Brady's desire to remain a Patriot for a long time and presented an offer that would allow him to do so without violating BB's principals. I suspect Brady's sacrifice won't go unrewarded and that Kraft and Brady will remain business partners for a long time. I am curious to see how much Brady will require in his next contract. If it is low enough and structured properly, he could remain a Patriot for a long time.... assuming his play doesn't fall off a cliff.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not suggesting anything, just pointed out the situation.

Lot's of players and teams sign 5 year deals. My guess is that most of them have changes in compensation with the time period of the deal. That is why we look at signing bonuses and real money in the short term and the situation after a couple of years. Of course, we usually discuss this in the framework of a team dumping a player (as people seem willing to do for Wilfork and Mayo. One could ask whether the team signed the contracts. I think that they did.

I am not suggesting that Brady would demand a trade. I'm simply suggesting how I might advise if I were the agent of a player who was about to play for $7M when the market was over $20M and my pay was what was being paid to mediocre quarterbacks. Given where Brady is in his career, I would suggest two choices. Either just accept the low wages and hope that the team will use the money wisely.

Or, as a second choice, I would ask to be empowered to go to management and ask for a raise, and suggest that I don't see how Brady can play for $7M when other top quarterbacks are getting $20M. I would suggest that this needs to be worked out and that I wasn't sure that Brady would participate all that much in the voluntary workouts if this situations weren't solved. Brady has no injury risk, so he can show up at mandatory practices. But no, I wouldn't suggest demanding a trade. The team can do as it must. If they choose to be fair, they can do so, or not.
==================================
Look, contracts are negotiated all the time. Brady has produced and is worth much more than this salary. This should be fixed. Mayo is worth less and this should be fixed. Wilfork's salary may or may not be more than he is worth, but the cap hit is too high and the contract will need to be fixed.

So, ALL these contracts were SIGNED. All COULD be torn up. Most posters seem to think that contracts should only be torn up if the player is getting the better deal.

Why would Brady have signed the deal if he didn't intend to honor it?
You are missing a critical point. Teams have options on every contract because they can cut the player at any time and choose a different player. Players cannot choose a different team. This is why contracts get that overpay players get torn up and contracts that underlay players require a holdout.
Tom Brady will not hold out.

 

[Miguel]

Since my name was mentioned in this thread, I feel that I should reply.
In all of my various editions of my 2015 salary cap preview I listed the possibility that the Patriots and Brady will redo his deal in 2015. Yes, I do think that it is possible. I also think that it is not probable. I would be remiss not to mention the possibility, no matter how slim.

If Don Yee's mouthpiece, Peter King, ever insinuates that Brady is unhappy with his level of pay, then we should give more credence to the idea.