Report: Drew Brees gets his deal, will make insane money

[resdubwhite]

Guess who is covering the Bounty budget this season?

 

[patchick]

2 crimes for the Saints this year...the bounty and paying a QB ridiculous money.

They should save some of that for defense....the Saints are looking like the mid
2000s Colts who paid the price of losing talent by overpaying on 1 QB.

By "they should," do you mean that in their place you would have let Brees walk? Because as far as I can tell, that's the only other option. Brees & his agent have played ultra hardball with this contract, and this was the money that it took to get the deal done.

IMO it's very hard to argue that Brees isn't worth the money. The difference between an elite QB and an average one is absolutely huge for the whole franchise. An elite QB is a virtual guarantee of a winning season every single year. He's a guarantee of a full stadium and a waiting list. He's a guarantee of your team being a national attraction every week. Etc.

Of course, the ideal situation is to have an elite QB and financial flexibility to keep your other star players. But if a Drew Brees decides he wants every last penny, he has to get it.

 

[BradyFTW!]

By "they should," do you mean that in their place you would have let Brees walk? Because as far as I can tell, that's the only other option. Brees & his agent have played ultra hardball with this contract, and this was the money that it took to get the deal done.

IMO it's very hard to argue that Brees isn't worth the money. The difference between an elite QB and an average one is absolutely huge for the whole franchise. An elite QB is a virtual guarantee of a winning season every single year. He's a guarantee of a full stadium and a waiting list. He's a guarantee of your team being a national attraction every week. Etc.

Of course, the ideal situation is to have an elite QB and financial flexibility to keep your other star players. But if a Drew Brees decides he wants every last penny, he has to get it.

Seriously. This offseason has already been a disaster for the Saints, both in PR and for the team they'll be putting on the field in September. I can see how they'd reach the conclusion that losing Brees on top of that just wasn't an option.

And if last season proved anything, isn't it that your defense doesn't need to be especially good, as long as your QB is elite? Basically, it seems like you need one of the following to be in contention:

1. an elite QB
2. an elite defense

If you already have option 1, then letting it go makes little sense.

 

[ausbacker]

If we thought Brady's future cap hit was going to be problematic good luck to the Saints.

Perhaps Welker should *****, moan and complain like Brees.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Of all the arbitration decisions to go the NFLPA's way, the one that did was the one that only hurts the Saints. Because Drew was tagged by SD back in 2005. The League never intended for the three times tag rule to apply except per team. Someone slacked off in drafting the language when they changed that 3rd tag to 144%. So NO lost what little leverage they had in being able to tag him twice at $16.4M and $19.7M, less than $20M, when the arbitrator's ruling changed that to $16.4M and $23.6M. They wanted to keep his tag between $18-$19M or right in between Brady's new money average and Manning's AAV. They ended up having to pony up about a million more per year.

And they really had no choice, this is what happens when you let things go to the last minute. They likely would not have been able to afford to tag him next season given they were only $2M under as is and the cap isn't going up much if at all next season. Where would they have gotten the $7.2M more to squeeze him under the cap even short term in a tag and trade. And unable to do that the alternative would have been a 2014 comp pick (and for a player with more than 10 years in the league that doesn't even come up as a 3rd no matter what he signs for).

This way they have three years to figure out what to do before his cap hits spike into the mid to upper $20's.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

If we thought Brady's future cap hit was going to be problematic good luck to the Saints.

Perhaps Welker should *****, moan and complain like Brees.

He did do all of the above, but at the end of the day only elite QB's have this level of leverage and this was NO's own doing. Had they stepped up and done a deal with him last season for something north of $19M, having another year to mitigate the amortization of his signing bonus would have dramatically helped the cap flexibility of this deal for it's duration. But they were too comfortable with him finishing out that $10M AAV deal to feel the pressure they felt today coming on. Now they'll find themselves in the same position Polian kept finding himself in for a decade with Manning... They'll end up having to add a couple of phony years on the end of this deal down the road, at the cost of more guaranteed money, one of which he won't see while they absorb a final year of dead cap after he's gone like Indy is with an inexpensive 1st round rookie (or sophomore developmental QB or some journeyman) starting on top of Manning's $10M of dead cap.

Andrew Brandt has posted his detailed assessment of the contract. He too says they will have to revisit it in 3 years because of those backend cap hits...

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/36679/breaking-down-drew-brees-deal

 

[Tunescribe]

I didn't care much for Brees singing his own praises last season. This makes me want to root against him.

 

[TyronePoole]

I don't have the slightest problem with the contract, he deserves it

 

[jason423]

He did do all of the above, but at the end of the day only elite QB's have this level of leverage and this was NO's own doing. Had they stepped up and done a deal with him last season for something north of $19M, having another year to mitigate the amortization of his signing bonus would have dramatically helped the cap flexibility of this deal for it's duration. But they were too comfortable with him finishing out that $10M AAV deal to feel the pressure they felt today coming on. Now they'll find themselves in the same position Polian kept finding himself in for a decade with Manning... They'll end up having to add a couple of phony years on the end of this deal down the road, at the cost of more guaranteed money, one of which he won't see while they absorb a final year of dead cap after he's gone like Indy is with an inexpensive 1st round rookie (or sophomore developmental QB or some journeyman) starting on top of Manning's $10M of dead cap.

Andrew Brandt has posted his detailed assessment of the contract. He too says they will have to revisit it in 3 years because of those backend cap hits...

Breaking down Drew Brees' deal - NFC South Blog - ESPN

I think the total value of the deal is fair. When I did the QB evaluation a few months back I knew he would have to earn more than Manning because statistically he is better than both Manning and Brady (Brady is better than Manning too who is overpaid for what he gave to Indy at the end).

But the structure is nuts because the Saints cap is such a disaster. When Manning got his deal he never would have a cap over $20 million. Brady wouldnt have jumped over 18.2 million, though now its 21.8 because the Pats needed more cap room this year to make their mark in free agency.

Brees is going to have a backend charge of 26.4 and 27.4 million at 36 and 37 years old. Thats nuts. With 14.8 million in dead money in year 4 and a short window to renegotiate after the season before the guarantees kick in they are really in a tough spot.

It looks to me like the Brady deal was the big negotiating points. The rolling guarantees are almost identical to Bradys contract. Bradys final year guarantee kicks in at the end of the 2013 season and I wouldnt be stunned if Brees does as well when all the info is released. His drop in APY year over year mirrors pretty close to Bradys. Bradys renegotiation also gave them a point for dead money at the back end. Brady will have 13.6 million in dead money in the second to last year of his extension and 6.8 million in the final year. Brees will have 14.8 million in dead money and 7.4 million.

My gut feeling is that their goal was to surpass Manning but they looked at Bradys current deal as the structural basis for the contact. In that respect Bradys latest renegotiation hurt the Saints because it upped what a team was willing to have on the books for a QB at 36 and 37 years old in prorated money. Mannings signing and option probably scared the Brees team and the Brady renegotiation was the final move that tipped the scales in Brees' favor which really screwed over New Orleans.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think the total value of the deal is fair. When I did the QB evaluation a few months back I knew he would have to earn more than Manning because statistically he is better than both Manning and Brady (Brady is better than Manning too who is overpaid for what he gave to Indy at the end).

I had to stop right there, given such a big error in your second sentence.

 

[Avenger]

I was of the opinion that they should have signing Manning and traded Brees.

 

[ausbacker]

I had to stop right there, given such a big error in your second sentence.

Yeah, irrespective of the fact that Manning was a dome QB he's been a better player for longer than Brees. Brady on the other hand, is an all weather Quarterback and is better than the both of them. The thing about Manning and Brady is they are historically proven playoff Quarterbacks.

Good luck to New Orleans.

 

[Joker]

maybe he meant just last year...then Brees IS statistically better than Brady by a small margin...of course Rodgers blows the two of them , and everyone else, away as far as QB rating goes, but Brees did lead the lead in passing yardage...here's the link anyway

2011 NFL Player Passing Stats - National Football League - ESPN

if he means that Brees IS statistically better than Brady or Manning career wise, well....I'd take issue with THAT stance.

 

[Deus Irae]

Last 3 seasons (even with Brady's post-injury year), non-compiler stats...

QB rating:

Brady - 104.0
Brees - 103.2

Completion %:

Brady - 65.7
Brees - 69.9

TD%

Brady - 6.2
Brees -6.2

INT%

Brady - 1.7
Brees - 2.6

Yards/attempt:

Brady - 8.1
Brees - 7.9

If you just count the last 2 seasons, the edge for Brady becomes even more noticeable....

 

[Deus Irae]

Last 2 seasons, non-compiler stats...

QB rating:

Brady - 108.0
Brees - 100.7

Completion %:

Brady - 65.7
Brees - 69.7

TD%

Brady - 6.8
Brees -6.0

INT%

Brady - 1.5
Brees - 2.7

Yards/attempt:

Brady - 8.3
Brees - 7.7

 

[jsull87]

Last 2 seasons, non-compiler stats...

QB rating:

Brady - 108.0
Brees - 100.7

Completion %:

Brady - 65.7
Brees - 69.7

TD%

Brady - 6.8
Brees -6.0

INT%

Brady - 1.5
Brees - 2.7

Yards/attempt:

Brady - 8.3
Brees - 7.7

These statistics tell a story, the other thing that comes into play is the fact that Brees plays in a Dome most of the time while Brady spends most of his time out in the elements. This can't be under estimated and makes the statistical advantage even more impressive, same can be said for rogers.

 

[jason423]

maybe he meant just last year...then Brees IS statistically better than Brady by a small margin...of course Rodgers blows the two of them , and everyone else, away as far as QB rating goes, but Brees did lead the lead in passing yardage...here's the link anyway

2011 NFL Player Passing Stats - National Football League - ESPN

if he means that Brees IS statistically better than Brady or Manning career wise, well....I'd take issue with THAT stance.

Hes clearly not better career wise, but when looking at a contract that rarely comes into play. Its mainly the "what have you done for me lately" that matters. Anyway this was my old matrix I used a few months back on the valuation of the QBs based on 3 year averages across a few all inclusive metrics to put a fair price on the QBs.

NFL Value Pricing of Quarterbacks

On the dome vs outside argument when it comes to a contract it means almost nothing. Brees plays in a dome and is signed by a team that plays in a dome. Its his worth to the dome team that justifies the contract, not his relative value to a team in the northeast that has to play outside. Denver should be concerned with that when it comes to Manning, but its a non-factor for New Orleans who play at least 9 games a year in a dome.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hes clearly not better career wise, but when looking at a contract that rarely comes into play. Its mainly the "what have you done for me lately" that matters. Anyway this was my old matrix I used a few months back on the valuation of the QBs based on 3 year averages across a few all inclusive metrics to put a fair price on the QBs.

NFL Value Pricing of Quarterbacks

On the dome vs outside argument when it comes to a contract it means almost nothing. Brees plays in a dome and is signed by a team that plays in a dome. Its his worth to the dome team that justifies the contract, not his relative value to a team in the northeast that has to play outside. Denver should be concerned with that when it comes to Manning, but its a non-factor for New Orleans who play at least 9 games a year in a dome.

I pointed out Brady's superior numbers (and didn't use the dome as part of the equation) for both 2 and 3 years back. Additionally, the fact that you used PFF makes your work useless. Dear God, man, you should be ashamed of yourself for using that site.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Vick got 100m deal as well. And he's not as good as Brees. It's pretty much who do you replace Brees with if you're the Saints? Nobody better in the pipeline. Brees' guaranteed money is what makes this deal especially good for him. What can I say, congrats, and enjoy spending the coin. Brees has earned the big payoff.

Not going to get into the Brady vs Brees debate. But they are both elite QBs and this makes you appreciate all the more what a great deal the Pats got. Signing Brady early before Manning and Brees deals got done was a smart long term investment.

Hopefully the Gronkowski deal will also be remembered as another shrewd move to lock up a franchise player long term.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Vick got 100m deal as well. And he's not as good as Brees. It's pretty much who do you replace Brees with if you're the Saints? Nobody better in the pipeline. Brees' guaranteed money is what makes this deal especially good for him. What can I say, congrats, and enjoy spending the coin. Brees has earned the big payoff.

Not going to get into the Brady vs Brees debate. But they are both elite QBs and this makes you appreciate all the more what a great deal the Pats got. Signing Brady early before Manning and Brees deals got done was a smart long term investment.

Hopefully the Gronkowski deal will also be remembered as another shrewd move to lock up a franchise player long term.

I generally believe that it will be, and the great part is that, given how it's structured, if it turns out to be an awful deal they have an out midway through anyways. In any case, Gronk is so far above and beyond every other TE in the league that, even if top-TE money only catches up to his contract, and doesn't surpass it, it will still probably end up looking like a shrewd contract provided that he continues to perform.