This is sort of what I've been thinking all along. I've posted as much a few times, but I seem to be in the vast minority.
I just don't understand the Patriots' leverage here. Once they open compensation/trade discussions with any team, the team is going to be aware that the Patriots don't need Cassel for the upcoming year. And they are also going to know that, at the end of the day, the Patriots aren't going to want the cap hit that keeping Cassel will entail. Accordingly, I think the Patriots are in take-what-we-can-get mode. He's not worth $14 million a year if Brady can go, so they have to trade him. If I'm another AFC team with title contentions, I'd love it if they kept him and took the cap hit.
The Patriots best chance here is that they get more than one team in a bidding war. That's where this gets good. But if there is only one legitimate suitor out there, I think the Patriots are in the much weaker spot. A second sounds right to me.
Well, if you're in the minority, just how vast could it be?
Anyway, all these posts seem to project the idea that the Patriots tagged Cassel (at 14M+) just so they could get rid of him.
I don't think so.
If there is a front office in this sport that shows any inclination of knowing exactly what it's doing, it's this one. There's no wing-and-a-prayer with this. Belichick has always had a firm grasp of the market, and it's value for players of all positions. That's why he's as successful as he is in these endeavors.
The argument, "franchise Cassel - a 7th rounder himself - so he doesn't just walk, for 14.6 million", is spurious. As the league stands today, he (Belichick) knows what Cassel's worth is, and just who might be serious suitors for the man at the value the Patriots deem he is worth.
That assumes they actually want, and have plans, to trade him.
This, however, may be a totally erroneous assumption.
What I think may be happening is, they've told Cassel's agent to shop around, and tell the Pats if there's an offer out there that they can't refuse. In the interim, they've doubtless assured said agent that their preference is to keep the kid, and are more than willing to work out a long-term deal for him, one advantageous to all parties concerned.
It's a mistake to think every time the franchise tag is invoked it's a one-and-done type thing. While it happens a lot, yes, it's not holy writ come down from Mt. Sinai. The Patriots seem to like Cassel and his long-term prospects, and likewise, Cassel seems to like the Patriots and their long-term outlook.
As has been said before, good QBs are hard to come by under any circumstance, and while the present cap-space conundrum does make free-agency shopping a bit problematic, they are in very good shape draft wise.
And even with the present dour cap-space outlook, the final chapter in this sage obviously has yet to be written.
And remember - you can never be too thin, too rich, have too much memory, or have too many good quarterbacks.
Somehow, I feel Belichick is quite aware of all this, and will, by story's end, put all the doubting nay-sayers in their proper place.
My bottom line: Unless an offer comes down the pike that simply blows the Patriots away, Cassel signs long-term, and stays.