Welcome to PatsFans.com

Reiss on Cassel and free agency

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by jmt57, Feb 10, 2009.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2005
    Messages:
    12,958
    Likes Received:
    22
    Ratings:
    +30 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extras/askreiss/02_10_09/?page=full

    Some of the answers in this week's mailbag are nothing unusual, and others are a bit of a surprise. For example, Reiss is of the opinion that the Pats will only get a 2nd in exchange for Cassel. He's also of the opinion that the market for Cassel will be the highest at the start of free agency (Feb 27), or right after the draft (April 26) - for teams that miss out on drafting a QB they were looking for.
  2. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2005
    Messages:
    20,550
    Likes Received:
    25
    Ratings:
    +25 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Happily, Mike's track record on Cassel isn't the best.
  3. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    9,798
    Likes Received:
    21
    Ratings:
    +24 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Just to play devil's advocate - if teams feel the asking price is too high, and Cassel's locked into a one year $15 million contract - teams might be willing to call the Patriots card that they would be stuck with a backup QB at that price for a full year, only to lose Cassel for nothing next season as a free agent.

    That could be one scenario where a team might not want to give up a #1 draft pick AND agree to a very expensive long-term contract with Cassel.
  4. PatsFaninAZ

    PatsFaninAZ Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    4,097
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    This is sort of what I've been thinking all along. I've posted as much a few times, but I seem to be in the vast minority.

    I just don't understand the Patriots' leverage here. Once they open compensation/trade discussions with any team, the team is going to be aware that the Patriots don't need Cassel for the upcoming year. And they are also going to know that, at the end of the day, the Patriots aren't going to want the cap hit that keeping Cassel will entail. Accordingly, I think the Patriots are in take-what-we-can-get mode. He's not worth $14 million a year if Brady can go, so they have to trade him. If I'm another AFC team with title contentions, I'd love it if they kept him and took the cap hit.

    The Patriots best chance here is that they get more than one team in a bidding war. That's where this gets good. But if there is only one legitimate suitor out there, I think the Patriots are in the much weaker spot. A second sounds right to me.
  5. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2005
    Messages:
    3,670
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I'm thinking the same way (2nd rounder) for 2009. The key for me is what can the Pats get for 2010 picks in addition. A conditional 2nd in 2010 that could become a 1st with reasonable milestones would be about as good as I would expect.
  6. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2004
    Messages:
    2,245
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I think that Cassel extends and stays after being gaurenteed that he is heir apparent to Tom Brady, whom I believe (don't crucify me here) is only in it to win one last ring.

    But to play devil's advocate, what other proven starter will be available? McNabb? Only if you think Kevin Kolb is ready to step in (I don't). Jeff Garcia? His body of work won't inspire a team's fans to shell out for their super bowl tickets.

    Leftwich? Losman? Boller? Culpepper? JAGs at best.

    Vick? you've got to be kidding me.

    If QB is the most important position in sports, and the past years have only done more to seperate the elite QBs from the scrubs (and in this day and age, almost everyone is one or the other) how can you say that the Patriots have no leverage for Cassel?
  7. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,596
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Teams aren't competing against the Pats or going against the "Pats Leverage". They are competing against each other and it only takes one team to offer a first round.
  8. Brettlax3434

    Brettlax3434 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    588
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    idk, if jared allen got a 1st and 3rd I would think a franchise qb will also.
  9. fillylabinga

    fillylabinga Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2005
    Messages:
    198
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    My favorite quote was Mike's response to the question of who the BB would have taken if he still had the 31st pick last year and would it have gotten the Pats into the playoffs:

    "my opinion is that Miami safety Kenny Phillips, Clemson defensive end Philip Merling and Virginia Tech cornerback Brandon Flowers would be three top names...would those players have helped them qualify for the playoffs? I'd say no"

    Uh, Mike, I'm pretty sure if the Pats had drafted Brandon Flowers they would have made the playoffs...
  10. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,358
    Likes Received:
    46
    Ratings:
    +59 / 1 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Aren't these some of the same arguments that were issued when the Pats traded Bledsoe?

    History has shown that QBs usually get traded for maximum value even with minimum production. Look at Rob Johnson, Scott Mitchell, Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck, etc. None had much of a resume when they got traded, but they all went with a hefty draft pick compensation.

    I think a 2nd is pretty low for a draft pick especially with the free agency and draft for QB this offseason. Doesn't mean the Pats will get more though.
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    19,975
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +28 / 1 / -0

    My Jersey:

    The patriots have exactly zero leverage by themselves. No one will offer even a 3rd for a one-year deal with Cassel for $14.6M.

    It is Cassel who has the leverage if the patriots want to give it to him and his agent. His agent should be given permission to go to any team Cassel wants (other than the jets) and then have the offering team bring back the deal to the patriots. I presume that this has already happened. The patriots might insist that the minimum is a 2010 first plus another pick. Cassel and his agent can then choose whether to expend the effort. I would expect that they have a couple teams in mind. Of course the deal could already be done.

    It is Cassel who has all the leverage. He can just sit tight for the year. There is no pressure on him to anything soon. Or Cassel can have his agent go convince someone to pay him $40M over 4 years with $20M up front AND give the patriots at least a first (probably a 2010 first, equivalent to the 2nd Reiss estimated).

  12. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,358
    Likes Received:
    46
    Ratings:
    +59 / 1 / -0

    My Jersey:

    What if it takes four years for Brady to win that one last ring? Do you really think that Cassel will want to play back up for four years.

    Personally, I really doubt that Brady would make a decision to only play for one more ring. From everything anyone has ever said about this guy, he is a competitor and is more likely to be one of those guys who stays a year or two too long rather than leave at the top of his game with the tank still near full.
  13. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,358
    Likes Received:
    46
    Ratings:
    +59 / 1 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Cassel doesn't have all the leverage. If he wants to start and get a long term deal, the Pats still have to be willing to trade him to a team. If Cassel gets his dream job and contract offer from say the 49ers, the Pats still will need to get compensation that they deem worthy or they can refuse to trade. Say the 49ers only offer a third rounder and refuse to go higher and the Pats say they are willing to role the dice that they will be desperate in training camp or next offseason.

    Cassel has a lot of leverage, but clearly not all the leverage. People assume that Cassel would be happy to sit on the bench every Sunday and get a new deal next year. People assume the Pats are desperate to get him off their books. None of us know for sure. It could very well be that the Pats don't even want to entertain offers for Cassel until Brady is in camp in August and Cassel wants to get traded now while teams have plenty of money and haven't drafted a QB in the draft. We don't know.
  14. ice

    ice Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2005
    Messages:
    173
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I believe the staring point in the bidding for Matt is the Lions 20th Pick.

    Even if the lions aren't intrested. They could be used as a ploy.
  15. condon84

    condon84 Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2008
    Messages:
    4,202
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Mike's been off on a good amount of things the past year. I remember him writing glowingly about Fernando Bryant during training camp but he didn't even make the team. He also was very high on Crable and Slater during training camp and Crable didn't amount to anything. Was he even active for a game at all?
  16. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,358
    Likes Received:
    46
    Ratings:
    +59 / 1 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Actually, the Patriots secrecy in negotiations gives them a lot of leverage because they can only have one legitimate team that is interested in Cassel, but they can make that team feel they are bidding against two or three teams. That team could be competing with itself.
  17. DocE

    DocE Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2008
    Messages:
    513
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    My main reason for believing the Patriots will receive more than a 2nd round pick for Cassel is that they franchised him.

    Wait....What?

    Quite simply, 14.6 million dollars is too big a gamble to make on receiving a single 2nd round draft pick. If the Patriots franchised Cassel with the intent of trading him, they know there are multiple teams out there interested in making a deal for him. The Patriots didn't franchise Cassel at an exorbitant salary with the intention of THEN finding out his market value...they already knew they could get significant compensation beforehand.
  18. Patjew

    Patjew PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2005
    Messages:
    9,550
    Likes Received:
    14
    Ratings:
    +18 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    #18 Jersey
    That's right. We know that NFL teams often operate out of fear when they're signing players, and if a team feel like they "need" Cassel and they're worried that another team will make a play for him, they'll be more likely to cough up a higher draft pick.

    If it was a two team league, the Pats would be at a major disadvantage in these negotiations. But with the mere potential of multiple bidders, the Pats can operate from a position of strength.
  19. RayClay

    RayClay Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2005
    Messages:
    17,518
    Likes Received:
    40
    Ratings:
    +49 / 0 / -1

    My Jersey:

    #75 Jersey
    My thought exactly. Belichick won't panic. whatever the market is, he'll get it.

    I sure think a #1 or a high #2 and more. Compare to the rookie success rates for QBs over the last 5-10.
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2009
  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    19,975
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +28 / 1 / -0

    My Jersey:

    You are correct. The patriots does have a bit of leverage, once Cassel is part of the negotiations. To answer your direct points. I suspect that none of this matters, since a deal may already be done.

    CASSEL
    If the most important thing to Cassel was starting, he wouldn't have signed the tag and waited to talk to the 5 teams in the bottom half of the draft who might be willing to offer two firsts. We all know at least one team that would have been included that will likely now be excluded.

    THE PATRIOTS
    To be blunt, IMHO, the patriots are only interested in getting the money off the books if they are interested in a Super Bowl this year. The only argument for keeping Cassel at $14.6M is not a delay of a couple of months in Brady being 100%. Manning wasn't 100% for at least that long. The only argument for keeping Cassel at $14.6M is that he may be needed as teh quarterback of the future. This would mean that either Brady's health really is doubtful or his will to play past 2010 is doubtful (sort of the one more SB and out syndrome). NOW, I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY OF THIS IS TRUE. I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL TRADE CASSEL EARLY.

    WAITING FOR AUGUST
    Great, don't use any of cap money in free agency AND lower the value for Cassel. How much will Cassel be worth with working with the team. How many teams will give ANY pick so that they can have Cassel at $14.6M at that late date.


  21. jsull87

    jsull87 Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2008
    Messages:
    2,535
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    that is rediculous logic in the case of crable... the guy got injured. by that same line of thought if mike was glowing about brady all pre season he was an idiot because how much did brady do this year. crable had 2 interceptions and a sack in pre season. i think that is not a bad showing
  22. Patriotic Fervor

    Patriotic Fervor Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2005
    Messages:
    1,414
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Well, if you're in the minority, just how vast could it be?

    Anyway, all these posts seem to project the idea that the Patriots tagged Cassel (at 14M+) just so they could get rid of him.

    I don't think so.

    If there is a front office in this sport that shows any inclination of knowing exactly what it's doing, it's this one. There's no wing-and-a-prayer with this. Belichick has always had a firm grasp of the market, and it's value for players of all positions. That's why he's as successful as he is in these endeavors.

    The argument, "franchise Cassel - a 7th rounder himself - so he doesn't just walk, for 14.6 million", is spurious. As the league stands today, he (Belichick) knows what Cassel's worth is, and just who might be serious suitors for the man at the value the Patriots deem he is worth.

    That assumes they actually want, and have plans, to trade him.

    This, however, may be a totally erroneous assumption.

    What I think may be happening is, they've told Cassel's agent to shop around, and tell the Pats if there's an offer out there that they can't refuse. In the interim, they've doubtless assured said agent that their preference is to keep the kid, and are more than willing to work out a long-term deal for him, one advantageous to all parties concerned.

    It's a mistake to think every time the franchise tag is invoked it's a one-and-done type thing. While it happens a lot, yes, it's not holy writ come down from Mt. Sinai. The Patriots seem to like Cassel and his long-term prospects, and likewise, Cassel seems to like the Patriots and their long-term outlook.

    As has been said before, good QBs are hard to come by under any circumstance, and while the present cap-space conundrum does make free-agency shopping a bit problematic, they are in very good shape draft wise.

    And even with the present dour cap-space outlook, the final chapter in this sage obviously has yet to be written.

    And remember - you can never be too thin, too rich, have too much memory, or have too many good quarterbacks.

    Somehow, I feel Belichick is quite aware of all this, and will, by story's end, put all the doubting nay-sayers in their proper place.

    My bottom line: Unless an offer comes down the pike that simply blows the Patriots away, Cassel signs long-term, and stays.
  23. JoeShmoe

    JoeShmoe Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,623
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I agree 100% and have also said the same repeatedly. I think ideas of a first are wishful thinking...
  24. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2007
    Messages:
    3,106
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I agree. There is always a need for a QB somewhere and with all the changes in FO and coaches this off-season, someone, somewhere will overpay at some point after the draft. May not end up being a 1st round pick this year, but it will include multiple picks.
  25. Patjew

    Patjew PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2005
    Messages:
    9,550
    Likes Received:
    14
    Ratings:
    +18 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    #18 Jersey
    You don't think that it can conveyed that more than 1 team are intersted in Cassel's services?
  26. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    3,274
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Hello...so much sense right here.
  27. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    19,975
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +28 / 1 / -0

    My Jersey:

    If Cassel signs long-term for the patriots, he would get starter money or he wouldn't do it. Everyone would guess the meaning for the team. Personally, I would then not then be counting on Brady extending. It simply isn't good business sense to pay two starting quarterbacks when your starter should have another 5-6 left.

  28. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    522
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    some thoughts:

    1) BB can always bluff and say he has a 'higher' offer from KC - do you think Pioli would deny he was interested in Cassell when called by another teams FO to confirm this? (So BB would not be 'exposed' as lying).

    2) re: some people think Cassell would rather just sit here in NE as TB's backup and take the easy franchaise tag money. Or he or agent will ask for too much money in a possible trade.

    I can't see Matt wanting to hold a clip board for another 1 year or more when he can get a multi-year deal as a starter. Every pro athlete is always talking about how wanting to play (start) is very important. Especially as he now HAS starting experience and did quite well. Think he wants to go back to sitting on the pine? Especially as he was backup in USC all those years.

    Plus I am sure his agent knows that the market for FA and draft QB's this year is very weak - old FA QBs (Warner, Garcia), JAG's or 2 Junior draft QB's (Flacco and Ryan were both Seniors). MAtt and his agent are bound to know that his value right now is at his highest and before all hell breaks loose if we go to uncapped situation in a couple years time.

    3) re: other teams know NE needs to trade Matt due to Cap charge on 2 QB's. That also tells teams that NE is serious about making a deal which is a good thing for all concerned. TB's health at least shows it is a possibility to keep Matty (and there is cap space to do this).

    Bottom line is it is a sellers market as far as potential franchaise QB's go (demand always exceeds supply). There are at least 5 (if not 10) teams that Cassell would be an upgrade at QB AND those teams have the cap room to pull the trigger. He will go for a first round pick OR at least multiple first day picks (like Schabb for two 2nd rounders). Book him Danno.

    just my 2 ores worth (danish money).
  29. E Belichick Unum

    E Belichick Unum Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2006
    Messages:
    457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    There are quite a few teams that need a solid QB. The Bucs, Vikings, Lions and Chiefs are in the first tier of teams that are desperate for one. The next group would be the Bears, Rams and Niners. This group just thinks it would be good, but not necessary to upgrade the position. There are a couple of darkhorse candidates we should look at also, the Jets might be wiling to invest two numbers ones if the alternative is to go with the JAGs they have on their roster, the Titans might decide that Collins is asking for too much and might get involved to create leverage against his demands, the Texans might decide they are that one player away.

    Cassel's representatives are able to talk with all 32 teams and I am sure they have started doing so already. The Patriots are not going to carry both Brady and Cassel into training camp and the time after the combine offers them the most leverage with the tier one teams. Does Detroit decide they need an experienced QB, or a rookie? Do the Vikes decide they have to act quickly, they are the only team in the league obviously a QB away from the Division Championship Game. Tampa has a new coach and GM and may want to make a splash.

    It only takes two teams to drive the price UP.
  30. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2007
    Messages:
    3,106
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I know most of us are "jones-ing" for more NFL info. to talk about, but the Matt Cassel situation seems pretty straight-forward. Cassel will not see a dime of that franchise-tag amount. He will either get traded and sign a long-term(most likely) lucrative deal or sign a cap-friendly deal with the Pats that nets him more than 14 million in a couple of years. He isn't the disgruntled, selfish player with a "Get Paid" tatoo on his forehead. He seems like a grateful and appreciative player that made the most of his opportunities and has a little patience and insight to understand that he will be rewarded in such a way that he or any of his family will not have to work for the rest of their lives if they choose.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page