Reiss on Cassel and free agency

[jmt57]

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extras/askreiss/02_10_09/?page=full

Some of the answers in this week's mailbag are nothing unusual, and others are a bit of a surprise. For example, Reiss is of the opinion that the Pats will only get a 2nd in exchange for Cassel. He's also of the opinion that the market for Cassel will be the highest at the start of free agency (Feb 27), or right after the draft (April 26) - for teams that miss out on drafting a QB they were looking for.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Happily, Mike's track record on Cassel isn't the best.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Ask Reiss: Nothing more fun than a game of tag - Boston.com

Some of the answers in this week's mailbag are nothing unusual, and others are a bit of a surprise. For example, Reiss is of the opinion that the Pats will only get a 2nd in exchange for Cassel. He's also of the opinion that the market for Cassel will be the highest at the start of free agency (Feb 27), or right after the draft (April 26) - for teams that miss out on drafting a QB they were looking for.

Just to play devil's advocate - if teams feel the asking price is too high, and Cassel's locked into a one year $15 million contract - teams might be willing to call the Patriots card that they would be stuck with a backup QB at that price for a full year, only to lose Cassel for nothing next season as a free agent.

That could be one scenario where a team might not want to give up a #1 draft pick AND agree to a very expensive long-term contract with Cassel.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

This is sort of what I've been thinking all along. I've posted as much a few times, but I seem to be in the vast minority.

I just don't understand the Patriots' leverage here. Once they open compensation/trade discussions with any team, the team is going to be aware that the Patriots don't need Cassel for the upcoming year. And they are also going to know that, at the end of the day, the Patriots aren't going to want the cap hit that keeping Cassel will entail. Accordingly, I think the Patriots are in take-what-we-can-get mode. He's not worth $14 million a year if Brady can go, so they have to trade him. If I'm another AFC team with title contentions, I'd love it if they kept him and took the cap hit.

The Patriots best chance here is that they get more than one team in a bidding war. That's where this gets good. But if there is only one legitimate suitor out there, I think the Patriots are in the much weaker spot. A second sounds right to me.

 

[Metaphors]

This is sort of what I've been thinking all along. I've posted as much a few times, but I seem to be in the vast minority.

The Patriots best chance here is that they get more than one team in a bidding war. That's where this gets good. But if there is only one legitimate suitor out there, I think the Patriots are in the much weaker spot. A second sounds right to me.

I'm thinking the same way (2nd rounder) for 2009. The key for me is what can the Pats get for 2010 picks in addition. A conditional 2nd in 2010 that could become a 1st with reasonable milestones would be about as good as I would expect.

 

[stinkypete]

I think that Cassel extends and stays after being gaurenteed that he is heir apparent to Tom Brady, whom I believe (don't crucify me here) is only in it to win one last ring.

But to play devil's advocate, what other proven starter will be available? McNabb? Only if you think Kevin Kolb is ready to step in (I don't). Jeff Garcia? His body of work won't inspire a team's fans to shell out for their super bowl tickets.

Leftwich? Losman? Boller? Culpepper? JAGs at best.

Vick? you've got to be kidding me.

If QB is the most important position in sports, and the past years have only done more to seperate the elite QBs from the scrubs (and in this day and age, almost everyone is one or the other) how can you say that the Patriots have no leverage for Cassel?

 

[mgcolby]

Teams aren't competing against the Pats or going against the "Pats Leverage". They are competing against each other and it only takes one team to offer a first round.

 

[Brettlax3434]

idk, if jared allen got a 1st and 3rd I would think a franchise qb will also.

 

[fillylabinga]

My favorite quote was Mike's response to the question of who the BB would have taken if he still had the 31st pick last year and would it have gotten the Pats into the playoffs:

"my opinion is that Miami safety Kenny Phillips, Clemson defensive end Philip Merling and Virginia Tech cornerback Brandon Flowers would be three top names...would those players have helped them qualify for the playoffs? I'd say no"

Uh, Mike, I'm pretty sure if the Pats had drafted Brandon Flowers they would have made the playoffs...

 

[Rob0729]

This is sort of what I've been thinking all along. I've posted as much a few times, but I seem to be in the vast minority.

I just don't understand the Patriots' leverage here. Once they open compensation/trade discussions with any team, the team is going to be aware that the Patriots don't need Cassel for the upcoming year. And they are also going to know that, at the end of the day, the Patriots aren't going to want the cap hit that keeping Cassel will entail. Accordingly, I think the Patriots are in take-what-we-can-get mode. He's not worth $14 million a year if Brady can go, so they have to trade him. If I'm another AFC team with title contentions, I'd love it if they kept him and took the cap hit.

The Patriots best chance here is that they get more than one team in a bidding war. That's where this gets good. But if there is only one legitimate suitor out there, I think the Patriots are in the much weaker spot. A second sounds right to me.

Aren't these some of the same arguments that were issued when the Pats traded Bledsoe?

History has shown that QBs usually get traded for maximum value even with minimum production. Look at Rob Johnson, Scott Mitchell, Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck, etc. None had much of a resume when they got traded, but they all went with a hefty draft pick compensation.

I think a 2nd is pretty low for a draft pick especially with the free agency and draft for QB this offseason. Doesn't mean the Pats will get more though.

 

[mgteich]

The patriots have exactly zero leverage by themselves. No one will offer even a 3rd for a one-year deal with Cassel for $14.6M.

It is Cassel who has the leverage if the patriots want to give it to him and his agent. His agent should be given permission to go to any team Cassel wants (other than the jets) and then have the offering team bring back the deal to the patriots. I presume that this has already happened. The patriots might insist that the minimum is a 2010 first plus another pick. Cassel and his agent can then choose whether to expend the effort. I would expect that they have a couple teams in mind. Of course the deal could already be done.

It is Cassel who has all the leverage. He can just sit tight for the year. There is no pressure on him to anything soon. Or Cassel can have his agent go convince someone to pay him $40M over 4 years with $20M up front AND give the patriots at least a first (probably a 2010 first, equivalent to the 2nd Reiss estimated).

I think that Cassel extends and stays after being gaurenteed that he is heir apparent to Tom Brady, whom I believe (don't crucify me here) is only in it to win one last ring.

But to play devil's advocate, what other proven starter will be available? McNabb? Only if you think Kevin Kolb is ready to step in (I don't). Jeff Garcia? His body of work won't inspire a team's fans to shell out for their super bowl tickets.

Leftwich? Losman? Boller? Culpepper? JAGs at best.

Vick? you've got to be kidding me.

If QB is the most important position in sports, and the past years have only done more to seperate the elite QBs from the scrubs (and in this day and age, almost everyone is one or the other) how can you say that the Patriots have no leverage for Cassel?

 

[Rob0729]

I think that Cassel extends and stays after being gaurenteed that he is heir apparent to Tom Brady, whom I believe (don't crucify me here) is only in it to win one last ring.

But to play devil's advocate, what other proven starter will be available? McNabb? Only if you think Kevin Kolb is ready to step in (I don't). Jeff Garcia? His body of work won't inspire a team's fans to shell out for their super bowl tickets.

Leftwich? Losman? Boller? Culpepper? JAGs at best.

Vick? you've got to be kidding me.

If QB is the most important position in sports, and the past years have only done more to seperate the elite QBs from the scrubs (and in this day and age, almost everyone is one or the other) how can you say that the Patriots have no leverage for Cassel?

What if it takes four years for Brady to win that one last ring? Do you really think that Cassel will want to play back up for four years.

Personally, I really doubt that Brady would make a decision to only play for one more ring. From everything anyone has ever said about this guy, he is a competitor and is more likely to be one of those guys who stays a year or two too long rather than leave at the top of his game with the tank still near full.

 

[Rob0729]

The patriots have exactly zero leverage by themselves. No one will offer even a 3rd for a one-year deal with Cassel for $14.6M.

It is Cassel who has the leverage if the patriots want to give it to him and his agent. His agent should be given permission to go to any team Cassel wants (other than the jets) and then have the offering team bring back the deal to the patriots. I presume that this has already happened. The patriots might insist that the minimum is a 2010 first plus another pick. Cassel and his agent can then choose whether to expend the effort. I would expect that they have a couple teams in mind. Of course the deal could already be done.

It is Cassel who has all the leverage. He can just sit tight for the year. There is no pressure on him to anything soon. Or Cassel can have his agent go convince someone to pay him $40M over 4 years with $20M up front AND give the patriots at least a first (probably a 2010 first, equivalent to the 2nd Reiss estimated).

Cassel doesn't have all the leverage. If he wants to start and get a long term deal, the Pats still have to be willing to trade him to a team. If Cassel gets his dream job and contract offer from say the 49ers, the Pats still will need to get compensation that they deem worthy or they can refuse to trade. Say the 49ers only offer a third rounder and refuse to go higher and the Pats say they are willing to role the dice that they will be desperate in training camp or next offseason.

Cassel has a lot of leverage, but clearly not all the leverage. People assume that Cassel would be happy to sit on the bench every Sunday and get a new deal next year. People assume the Pats are desperate to get him off their books. None of us know for sure. It could very well be that the Pats don't even want to entertain offers for Cassel until Brady is in camp in August and Cassel wants to get traded now while teams have plenty of money and haven't drafted a QB in the draft. We don't know.

 

[ice]

I believe the staring point in the bidding for Matt is the Lions 20th Pick.

Even if the lions aren't intrested. They could be used as a ploy.

 

[condon84]

Happily, Mike's track record on Cassel isn't the best.

Mike's been off on a good amount of things the past year. I remember him writing glowingly about Fernando Bryant during training camp but he didn't even make the team. He also was very high on Crable and Slater during training camp and Crable didn't amount to anything. Was he even active for a game at all?

 

[Rob0729]

Teams aren't competing against the Pats or going against the "Pats Leverage". They are competing against each other and it only takes one team to offer a first round.

Actually, the Patriots secrecy in negotiations gives them a lot of leverage because they can only have one legitimate team that is interested in Cassel, but they can make that team feel they are bidding against two or three teams. That team could be competing with itself.

 

[DocE]

My main reason for believing the Patriots will receive more than a 2nd round pick for Cassel is that they franchised him.

Wait....What?

Quite simply, 14.6 million dollars is too big a gamble to make on receiving a single 2nd round draft pick. If the Patriots franchised Cassel with the intent of trading him, they know there are multiple teams out there interested in making a deal for him. The Patriots didn't franchise Cassel at an exorbitant salary with the intention of THEN finding out his market value...they already knew they could get significant compensation beforehand.

 

[Patjew]

Actually, the Patriots secrecy in negotiations gives them a lot of leverage because they can only have one legitimate team that is interested in Cassel, but they can make that team feel they are bidding against two or three teams. That team could be competing with itself.

That's right. We know that NFL teams often operate out of fear when they're signing players, and if a team feel like they "need" Cassel and they're worried that another team will make a play for him, they'll be more likely to cough up a higher draft pick.

If it was a two team league, the Pats would be at a major disadvantage in these negotiations. But with the mere potential of multiple bidders, the Pats can operate from a position of strength.

 

[RayClay]

Teams aren't competing against the Pats or going against the "Pats Leverage". They are competing against each other and it only takes one team to offer a first round.

My thought exactly. Belichick won't panic. whatever the market is, he'll get it.

I sure think a #1 or a high #2 and more. Compare to the rookie success rates for QBs over the last 5-10.

 

[mgteich]

You are correct. The patriots does have a bit of leverage, once Cassel is part of the negotiations. To answer your direct points. I suspect that none of this matters, since a deal may already be done.

CASSEL
If the most important thing to Cassel was starting, he wouldn't have signed the tag and waited to talk to the 5 teams in the bottom half of the draft who might be willing to offer two firsts. We all know at least one team that would have been included that will likely now be excluded.

THE PATRIOTS
To be blunt, IMHO, the patriots are only interested in getting the money off the books if they are interested in a Super Bowl this year. The only argument for keeping Cassel at $14.6M is not a delay of a couple of months in Brady being 100%. Manning wasn't 100% for at least that long. The only argument for keeping Cassel at $14.6M is that he may be needed as teh quarterback of the future. This would mean that either Brady's health really is doubtful or his will to play past 2010 is doubtful (sort of the one more SB and out syndrome). NOW, I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY OF THIS IS TRUE. I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL TRADE CASSEL EARLY.

WAITING FOR AUGUST
Great, don't use any of cap money in free agency AND lower the value for Cassel. How much will Cassel be worth with working with the team. How many teams will give ANY pick so that they can have Cassel at $14.6M at that late date.

Cassel doesn't have all the leverage. If he wants to start and get a long term deal, the Pats still have to be willing to trade him to a team. If Cassel gets his dream job and contract offer from say the 49ers, the Pats still will need to get compensation that they deem worthy or they can refuse to trade. Say the 49ers only offer a third rounder and refuse to go higher and the Pats say they are willing to role the dice that they will be desperate in training camp or next offseason.

Cassel has a lot of leverage, but clearly not all the leverage. People assume that Cassel would be happy to sit on the bench every Sunday and get a new deal next year. People assume the Pats are desperate to get him off their books. None of us know for sure. It could very well be that the Pats don't even want to entertain offers for Cassel until Brady is in camp in August and Cassel wants to get traded now while teams have plenty of money and haven't drafted a QB in the draft. We don't know.