Reiss on Cassel and free agency

[jsull87]

Mike's been off on a good amount of things the past year. I remember him writing glowingly about Fernando Bryant during training camp but he didn't even make the team. He also was very high on Crable and Slater during training camp and Crable didn't amount to anything. Was he even active for a game at all?

that is rediculous logic in the case of crable... the guy got injured. by that same line of thought if mike was glowing about brady all pre season he was an idiot because how much did brady do this year. crable had 2 interceptions and a sack in pre season. i think that is not a bad showing

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

This is sort of what I've been thinking all along. I've posted as much a few times, but I seem to be in the vast minority.

I just don't understand the Patriots' leverage here. Once they open compensation/trade discussions with any team, the team is going to be aware that the Patriots don't need Cassel for the upcoming year. And they are also going to know that, at the end of the day, the Patriots aren't going to want the cap hit that keeping Cassel will entail. Accordingly, I think the Patriots are in take-what-we-can-get mode. He's not worth $14 million a year if Brady can go, so they have to trade him. If I'm another AFC team with title contentions, I'd love it if they kept him and took the cap hit.

The Patriots best chance here is that they get more than one team in a bidding war. That's where this gets good. But if there is only one legitimate suitor out there, I think the Patriots are in the much weaker spot. A second sounds right to me.

Well, if you're in the minority, just how vast could it be?

Anyway, all these posts seem to project the idea that the Patriots tagged Cassel (at 14M+) just so they could get rid of him.

I don't think so.

If there is a front office in this sport that shows any inclination of knowing exactly what it's doing, it's this one. There's no wing-and-a-prayer with this. Belichick has always had a firm grasp of the market, and it's value for players of all positions. That's why he's as successful as he is in these endeavors.

The argument, "franchise Cassel - a 7th rounder himself - so he doesn't just walk, for 14.6 million", is spurious. As the league stands today, he (Belichick) knows what Cassel's worth is, and just who might be serious suitors for the man at the value the Patriots deem he is worth.

That assumes they actually want, and have plans, to trade him.

This, however, may be a totally erroneous assumption.

What I think may be happening is, they've told Cassel's agent to shop around, and tell the Pats if there's an offer out there that they can't refuse. In the interim, they've doubtless assured said agent that their preference is to keep the kid, and are more than willing to work out a long-term deal for him, one advantageous to all parties concerned.

It's a mistake to think every time the franchise tag is invoked it's a one-and-done type thing. While it happens a lot, yes, it's not holy writ come down from Mt. Sinai. The Patriots seem to like Cassel and his long-term prospects, and likewise, Cassel seems to like the Patriots and their long-term outlook.

As has been said before, good QBs are hard to come by under any circumstance, and while the present cap-space conundrum does make free-agency shopping a bit problematic, they are in very good shape draft wise.

And even with the present dour cap-space outlook, the final chapter in this sage obviously has yet to be written.

And remember - you can never be too thin, too rich, have too much memory, or have too many good quarterbacks.

Somehow, I feel Belichick is quite aware of all this, and will, by story's end, put all the doubting nay-sayers in their proper place.

My bottom line: Unless an offer comes down the pike that simply blows the Patriots away, Cassel signs long-term, and stays.

 

[JoeShmoe]

This is sort of what I've been thinking all along. I've posted as much a few times, but I seem to be in the vast minority.

I just don't understand the Patriots' leverage here. Once they open compensation/trade discussions with any team, the team is going to be aware that the Patriots don't need Cassel for the upcoming year. And they are also going to know that, at the end of the day, the Patriots aren't going to want the cap hit that keeping Cassel will entail. Accordingly, I think the Patriots are in take-what-we-can-get mode. He's not worth $14 million a year if Brady can go, so they have to trade him. If I'm another AFC team with title contentions, I'd love it if they kept him and took the cap hit.

The Patriots best chance here is that they get more than one team in a bidding war. That's where this gets good. But if there is only one legitimate suitor out there, I think the Patriots are in the much weaker spot. A second sounds right to me.

I agree 100% and have also said the same repeatedly. I think ideas of a first are wishful thinking...

 

[fair catch fryar]

Aren't these some of the same arguments that were issued when the Pats traded Bledsoe?

History has shown that QBs usually get traded for maximum value even with minimum production. Look at Rob Johnson, Scott Mitchell, Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck, etc. None had much of a resume when they got traded, but they all went with a hefty draft pick compensation.

I think a 2nd is pretty low for a draft pick especially with the free agency and draft for QB this offseason. Doesn't mean the Pats will get more though.

I agree. There is always a need for a QB somewhere and with all the changes in FO and coaches this off-season, someone, somewhere will overpay at some point after the draft. May not end up being a 1st round pick this year, but it will include multiple picks.

 

[Patjew]

I agree 100% and have also said the same repeatedly. I think ideas of a first are wishful thinking...

You don't think that it can conveyed that more than 1 team are intersted in Cassel's services?

 

[Clonamery]

The Patriots didn't franchise Cassel at an exorbitant salary with the intention of THEN finding out his market value...they already knew they could get significant compensation beforehand.

Hello...so much sense right here.

 

[mgteich]

If Cassel signs long-term for the patriots, he would get starter money or he wouldn't do it. Everyone would guess the meaning for the team. Personally, I would then not then be counting on Brady extending. It simply isn't good business sense to pay two starting quarterbacks when your starter should have another 5-6 left.

Well, if you're in the minority, just how vast could it be?

Anyway, all these posts seem to project the idea that the Patriots tagged Cassel (at 14M+) just so they could get rid of him.

I don't think so.

If there is a front office in this sport that shows any inclination of knowing exactly what it's doing, it's this one. There's no wing-and-a-prayer with this. Belichick has always had a firm grasp of the market, and it's value for players of all positions. That's why he's as successful as he is in these endeavors.

The argument, "franchise Cassel - a 7th rounder himself - so he doesn't just walk, for 14.6 million", is spurious. As the league stands today, he (Belichick) knows what Cassel's worth is, and just who might be serious suitors for the man at the value the Patriots deem he is worth.

That assumes they actually want, and have plans, to trade him.

This, however, may be a totally erroneous assumption.

What I think may be happening is, they've told Cassel's agent to shop around, and tell the Pats if there's an offer out there that they can't refuse. In the interim, they've doubtless assured said agent that their preference is to keep the kid, and are more than willing to work out a long-term deal for him, one advantageous to all parties concerned.

It's a mistake to think every time the franchise tag is invoked it's a one-and-done type thing. While it happens a lot, yes, it's not holy writ come down from Mt. Sinai. The Patriots seem to like Cassel and his long-term prospects, and likewise, Cassel seems to like the Patriots and their long-term outlook.

As has been said before, good QBs are hard to come by under any circumstance, and while the present cap-space conundrum does make free-agency shopping a bit problematic, they are in very good shape draft wise.

And even with the present dour cap-space outlook, the final chapter in this sage obviously has yet to be written.

And remember - you can never be too thin, too rich, have too much memory, or have too many good quarterbacks.

Somehow, I feel Belichick is quite aware of all this, and will, by story's end, put all the doubting nay-sayers in their proper place.

My bottom line: Unless an offer comes down the pike that simply blows the Patriots away, Cassel signs long-term, and stays.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

some thoughts:

1) BB can always bluff and say he has a 'higher' offer from KC - do you think Pioli would deny he was interested in Cassell when called by another teams FO to confirm this? (So BB would not be 'exposed' as lying).

2) re: some people think Cassell would rather just sit here in NE as TB's backup and take the easy franchaise tag money. Or he or agent will ask for too much money in a possible trade.

I can't see Matt wanting to hold a clip board for another 1 year or more when he can get a multi-year deal as a starter. Every pro athlete is always talking about how wanting to play (start) is very important. Especially as he now HAS starting experience and did quite well. Think he wants to go back to sitting on the pine? Especially as he was backup in USC all those years.

Plus I am sure his agent knows that the market for FA and draft QB's this year is very weak - old FA QBs (Warner, Garcia), JAG's or 2 Junior draft QB's (Flacco and Ryan were both Seniors). MAtt and his agent are bound to know that his value right now is at his highest and before all hell breaks loose if we go to uncapped situation in a couple years time.

3) re: other teams know NE needs to trade Matt due to Cap charge on 2 QB's. That also tells teams that NE is serious about making a deal which is a good thing for all concerned. TB's health at least shows it is a possibility to keep Matty (and there is cap space to do this).

Bottom line is it is a sellers market as far as potential franchaise QB's go (demand always exceeds supply). There are at least 5 (if not 10) teams that Cassell would be an upgrade at QB AND those teams have the cap room to pull the trigger. He will go for a first round pick OR at least multiple first day picks (like Schabb for two 2nd rounders). Book him Danno.

just my 2 ores worth (danish money).

 

[E Belichick Unum]

There are quite a few teams that need a solid QB. The Bucs, Vikings, Lions and Chiefs are in the first tier of teams that are desperate for one. The next group would be the Bears, Rams and Niners. This group just thinks it would be good, but not necessary to upgrade the position. There are a couple of darkhorse candidates we should look at also, the Jets might be wiling to invest two numbers ones if the alternative is to go with the JAGs they have on their roster, the Titans might decide that Collins is asking for too much and might get involved to create leverage against his demands, the Texans might decide they are that one player away.

Cassel's representatives are able to talk with all 32 teams and I am sure they have started doing so already. The Patriots are not going to carry both Brady and Cassel into training camp and the time after the combine offers them the most leverage with the tier one teams. Does Detroit decide they need an experienced QB, or a rookie? Do the Vikes decide they have to act quickly, they are the only team in the league obviously a QB away from the Division Championship Game. Tampa has a new coach and GM and may want to make a splash.

It only takes two teams to drive the price UP.

 

[fair catch fryar]

I know most of us are "jones-ing" for more NFL info. to talk about, but the Matt Cassel situation seems pretty straight-forward. Cassel will not see a dime of that franchise-tag amount. He will either get traded and sign a long-term(most likely) lucrative deal or sign a cap-friendly deal with the Pats that nets him more than 14 million in a couple of years. He isn't the disgruntled, selfish player with a "Get Paid" tatoo on his forehead. He seems like a grateful and appreciative player that made the most of his opportunities and has a little patience and insight to understand that he will be rewarded in such a way that he or any of his family will not have to work for the rest of their lives if they choose.

 

[PrairiePat]

I'm sure he'll go for at least a first round pick.

Heck, just think of -one- of the teams who should be interested, the Vikings. They are literally a QB away from being a serious contender in the NFC - do you really think they'll let themselves be outbid for a proven guy like Cassel? I don't think they have the time, nor the inclination, to go with a rookie QB in the draft - they're built to win in the next year or 2, and the previous college QB they pinned their hopes on has been a disaster.

The other first-tier teams mentioned in this thread have their own reasons to be drooling over the thought of getting this guy. KC and Detroit would love to have a top-notch QB to build an offense around. Tennessee has a ferocious defense and a great running game; imagine what an upgrade Cassel would be over Collins for them. Chicago has been playing revolving QB for years, they'd love to get a solid guy in there.

I think the demand will be there, if the Pats really want to move him.

 

[mgcolby]

Well, if you're in the minority, just how vast could it be?

Anyway, all these posts seem to project the idea that the Patriots tagged Cassel (at 14M+) just so they could get rid of him.

I don't think so.

If there is a front office in this sport that shows any inclination of knowing exactly what it's doing, it's this one. There's no wing-and-a-prayer with this. Belichick has always had a firm grasp of the market, and it's value for players of all positions. That's why he's as successful as he is in these endeavors.

The argument, "franchise Cassel - a 7th rounder himself - so he doesn't just walk, for 14.6 million", is spurious. As the league stands today, he (Belichick) knows what Cassel's worth is, and just who might be serious suitors for the man at the value the Patriots deem he is worth.

That assumes they actually want, and have plans, to trade him.

This, however, may be a totally erroneous assumption.

What I think may be happening is, they've told Cassel's agent to shop around, and tell the Pats if there's an offer out there that they can't refuse. In the interim, they've doubtless assured said agent that their preference is to keep the kid, and are more than willing to work out a long-term deal for him, one advantageous to all parties concerned.

It's a mistake to think every time the franchise tag is invoked it's a one-and-done type thing. While it happens a lot, yes, it's not holy writ come down from Mt. Sinai. The Patriots seem to like Cassel and his long-term prospects, and likewise, Cassel seems to like the Patriots and their long-term outlook.

As has been said before, good QBs are hard to come by under any circumstance, and while the present cap-space conundrum does make free-agency shopping a bit problematic, they are in very good shape draft wise.

And even with the present dour cap-space outlook, the final chapter in this sage obviously has yet to be written.

And remember - you can never be too thin, too rich, have too much memory, or have too many good quarterbacks.

Somehow, I feel Belichick is quite aware of all this, and will, by story's end, put all the doubting nay-sayers in their proper place.

My bottom line: Unless an offer comes down the pike that simply blows the Patriots away, Cassel signs long-term, and stays.

I understand your argument (which was well laid out) and I can see how a person could come to the same conclusion and agree with you. However it is counter intuitive for the Pats to tag him on the first day if they plan on working out a long term deal with him.

They could have been negotiating with him since the end of the season and if both parties couldn't come to an agreement, the Pats could tag him at the deadline. Also, they didn't need to tag him in order to give Cassel's agent permission to shop him.

Now it is possible the Pats tried to work out a deal with him and he told them in no uncertain terms that he wanted to go somewhere he could start. And now he is simply playing ball and saying all the right things in the media to help facilitate a trade. We simply don't know.

But what we do know, is it does not make any business sense to tag a player on the first day if your intention is to keep him. You use the exclusive negotiating period to attempt to work out a deal. They did this to make it clear that he is available and for teams to bring their best offer.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Heck, just think of -one- of the teams who should be interested, the Vikings. They are literally a QB away from being a serious contender in the NFC - do you really think they'll let themselves be outbid for a proven guy like Cassel? I don't think they have the time, nor the inclination, to go with a rookie QB in the draft - they're built to win in the next year or 2, and the previous college QB they pinned their hopes on has been a disaster.

The only problem--as we've seen time and time again--is that logic is rarely the main factor in these decisions. Often times, things like selling seats, FO folks trying to save their bacon, or coaches overestimating their players lead to incredibly shortsighted decisions. I could see the Vikings deluding themselves into thinking that Tarvaris Jackson is their long-term solution.

 

[aluminum seats]

Well, I'll go on the record that the Pats will get at least a first for him. I think what's underestimated is the comfort level Cassell would provide to many GMs out there. Getting a now-experienced QB trained by the Pats would provide many teams with the sense that they've got the QB position covered immediately from Day 1 next year. Far better than drafting a guy and hoping.

Everyone tends to fetishize picks a little bit.....keep in mind that every team gets a first round pick every year--they're obviously not tickets to post-season glory.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

I understand your argument (which was well laid out) and I can see how a person could come to the same conclusion and agree with you. However it is counter intuitive for the Pats to tag him on the first day if they plan on working out a long term deal with him.

They could have been negotiating with him since the end of the season and if both parties couldn't come to an agreement, the Pats could tag him at the deadline. Also, they didn't need to tag him in order to give Cassel's agent permission to shop him.

Now it is possible the Pats tried to work out a deal with him and he told them in no uncertain terms that he wanted to go somewhere he could start. And now he is simply playing ball and saying all the right things in the media to help facilitate a trade. We simply don't know.

But what we do know, is it does not make any business sense to tag a player on the first day if your intention is to keep him. You use the exclusive negotiating period to attempt to work out a deal. They did this to make it clear that he is available and for teams to bring their best offer.

Oh, I can see quite clearly the proposition you put forth, and it's like the other side of my coin.

The tuff thing for us, the guys here on the board, is we don't know! It's all speculation...but it is such fun indulging in!

Do you have a list of likely (not possible - anything is possible!) suitors for Cassel's services???

Just curious....

 

[jeffbiologist]

I'm thinking the same way (2nd rounder) for 2009. The key for me is what can the Pats get for 2010 picks in addition. A conditional 2nd in 2010 that could become a 1st with reasonable milestones would be about as good as I would expect.

This is exactly what I am figuring, and he would go to SF. And because of this I think he will hold value til draft day, and the 2010 pick would be a 1st if they made the playoffs....set up like the Favre deal last year.