YOU PROVIDE A GOOD BASE FOR DISCUSSION
I believe that the following could slip out of the top 23 ( you list 28 players):
DL Sweat (injury concerns)
DL Gary (injury concerns)
DL Lawrence
QB Jones (I think that the giants want Haskins (or Rosen)
CB Williams
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THOUGHTS
1) Even if I accept that the value of 32 (really 29) through 45 is about the same, there is still the issue of position. I could certainly see the entire top 10 on our boards at the time being gone in the next 16 picks (by 45).
2) Your list makes a good argument for trading up into the 20's.
3) I'm fine with moving down 2-5 picks if we still project to get approximately the same level player. If the draft goes as you suggest, there will be run on WR's combining in the early 30's. Perhaps we really want a Harry or AJ Brown, even while we wait for Hardman or Isabella later. Ditto with Smith and waiting for the TE's.
4) I prefer the smaller trade down and picking up a 2019 5th or even a swap in the 4th.
WHERE IS THE SWEET SPOT?
Is it through the end of the 3rd (there will be lots of WR's there)? Ivy gut says that there is a serious drop off after about 55.
I would favor moving around to get 4 before the end of the second. That id probably doable if we stop worrying about trying to total 15 picks in 2020.
BOTTOM LINE
1) If there is no viable trade up (using a comp 3rd), and no QB we want at 32, then trade down a bit and pick up a 5th.
2) Then use a comp 3rd to move up from 73 into the 2nd.
3) This gives us 4 picks at 64 or before ( a 1st and 3 second, or 4 seconds)
From recent rumblings it seems the top 20 players will roughly be the following:
QB: Murray, Haskins, Lock, Jones
TE: Hockenson, Fant
DT: Williams, Oliver, Wilkins
DE: Bosa, Allen, Sweat, Gary, Burns
OT: Taylor, Williams, Dillard
C/G: Bradbury
LB: White, Bush
Players who are likely to be gone in the next 10 picks:
RB: Jacobs
DE: Ferrell
DT: Lawrence, Simmons
OT: Ford
G: Lindstrom
WR: M. Brown
CB: Williams
DK Metcalf seems to be a faller and could drop out of the 1st, and the CB/S market is anyone's guess. No one seems to know who the top corner or safety will be coming off the board.
If the board fell this way I would certainly want to trade down if possible. I think we'd be able to get just as good a player at 45 as at 32. I'd even attempt to go down to the bottom of the second or early third and get a first rounder for next year. That would need us to convince someone to come up for Will Grier in all likelihood. Perhaps swinging a trade with Washington, Miami or Carolina for a future second and dropping to 46, 47 or 48 is the best we could do.