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Reading the OTA tea leaves...


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AzPatsFan

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The Patriots have been in half dozen OTA unpadded walkthrough/practices. Our eyes and ears are the local sports writers who all offered some opinions, but a picture is emerging.

Despite the missing Gronk and Hernandez who are healing, the rest of the TEs appear to make a competent TE corps, if not a stellar one.

This is important because BB tore up his WR corps of aging receivers and started from scratch with at least one premium draft pick.

Off of what is reported at the OTAs, imported veteran Amendola has already won the slot receiver position. Not unexpected for this bigger, faster, younger veteran who has constantly been compared to his college predecessor at Texas Tech. te competition there is for a backup role.

The premium rookie WR selection, Aaron Dobson, and imported veteran Mike Jenkins have both shown very well.

Jenkins in particular, is an old steady pro with great size and knowledge of how to play the "X" position, if no longer the speed to excel at it. Now a "possession" receiver he is demonstrating the cutting, positioning, hands and hand-fighting ability that made him a First round pick, are still there. Dissed and dismissed by the fans, BBs pro scouts seem to have a found a contributing keeper.

Meanwhile, Aaron Dobson has ALREADY shown that the draft selection was merited, as he has demonstrated the phenomenal, one handed catches and skying and fighting for receptions, were not just to be relegated to triumphs over inferior college players. He has gone against the best of the Pats secondary and showed similar skills.

There is more to a WR corps than just the "X" and "slot" positions. There is the flanker position opposite the Split End.

The picture is a lot less clear here. Outside flankers are usually the speediest WRs; and may sometimes be smaller, trading size for speed. The Pats do NOT have a premium draft selection here, nor heralded veterans, competing here. Slot backup Julian Edelman, Donald Jones and Artrell Hawkins are the veterans competing, and Josh Boyce is the rookie challenger here. Hopefully this position can be filled with a competent, better than average WR, else teams will rotate their coverages to thwart the TEs and X receivers.

Who wins the flanker position is wholly undecided. But Donald Jones, Julian Edelman and Josh Boyce would seem to have the inside track. All three could also serve as Amendola's backup at slot WR.

It appears to me that all of BB's plans are coming to fruition.

Meanwhile Tommy Kelly has patched the interior Defensive Line successfully. With both Vince and Tommy getting older, there is a real need for some talented backups. Who those might be, or if they are even on the team now, is undetermined. But Canadian import, young veteran Armond Armstead could be a pleasant surprise, as could rooks "Porkchop" Grissom or PS soph Forston.

At Defensive End the starters are more than adequate, and Chandler Jones appears to be a rising Star, while Rob Ninkovitch continually reminds me of Mike Vrabel. Premium rookie pick Jamie Collins and a group of young veterans, any one of which could break through to provide depth and more talent in the pass rush.

The picture at LB is brightening too. Depth and talent at LB is showing, with the return of ILB Fletcher and the drafting of OLB/DE Jamie Collins. Adrian Wilson may contribute as a coverage LB too. This is a unit well on its way to lots of respect. Two 1s and two 2s, along with a UDFA find and an ex-Prowbowl big nickel coverage LB, is a well balanced resume of that squad.

The picture in the secondary is heartening as well. Talib, Alphonzo and Kyle return at LCB, RCB and Slot CB respectively. They played well at the end of thr season until injury struck them down. The Pats are getting Ras-I back from IR, and reports are his play is encouraging. They have added Logan Ryan in the 3rd round of the draft. Hopefully never again will we have to play a ST like Marquis Cole in a big game in the Playoffs, due to injuries. In retrospect, BB gave up on premium secondary pick Darius Butler too soon, as he seems to have found a Staring starting role with the Colts. If nothing else, he would have been great depth here.

At S we shall have to see, but adding A. Wilson to be the Big Nickel, and the permanent move of McCourty to S are a good start. Gregory is fair at best, and we shall see how far Tavon, Duran and Ebner have come.

Depth and talent at CB is apparent; and the questions at S are still to be resolved. But McCourty is certainly a solid beginning, at one S position.

Overall the Defense appears deeper and better than in many years. A major weakness to opponents TEs and RBS has been closed with the additions of Wilson and Collins, and the maturity of Hightower.

The ST were exceptional last season except at KOR. Adding league leader KR Leon Washington makes every position star-studded, and the ST the best in the league.
 
The picture is a lot less clear here. Outside flankers are usually the speediest WRs; and may sometimes be smaller, trading size for speed. The Pats do NOT have a premium draft selection here, nor heralded veterans, competing here. Slot backup Julian Edelman, Donald Jones and Artrell Hawkins are the veterans competing, and Josh Boyce is the rookie challenger here. Hopefully this position can be filled with a competent, better than average WR, else teams will rotate their coverages to thwart the TEs and X receivers.

Lavelle, not Artrell. . . . :)

At Defensive End the starters are more than adequate, and Chandler Jones appears to be a rising Star, while Rob Ninkovitch continually reminds me of Mike Vrabel.

Physically, yes. As a TE, feh. :p

In retrospect, BB gave up on premium secondary pick Darius Butler too soon, as he seems to have found a Staring starting role with the Colts. If nothing else, he would have been great depth here.

Given the disaster that was the 2011 Colts, I'm not sure that's saying a ton re: Butler. But I will say that clearly something went wrong.

At S we shall have to see, but adding A. Wilson to be the Big Nickel, and the permanent move of McCourty to S are a good start. Gregory is fair at best, and we shall see how far Tavon, Duran and Ebner have come.

Remember that Ebner is there primarily for ST. Anything he can pick up at S is an added bonus.
 
Thanks for the correction. Re Lavelle vs Artrell.

Ninko is no Vrabel as a TE; but on this team there is no need for him to be.

I know hopes springs eternal in the off season but I am astonished at how well things seem to be working out, in spite of Gronk's health issues.

Butler caught on in 2011 but his staring role became evident in the 10 or 11 win 2012Colts season.

I didn't mention it but Bedard commented that even Mallett is appearing to be more mature and confident. He has shortened, and speeded up his delivery too, while he always had the rocket arm. I wonder who or whether he has a throwing coach like Martinez or House. Brady is quite right, pinpoint accuracy comes from good mechanics.:D
 
I am so excited to see how the defense performs this year. I think one under-looked aspect of the defense is the stability of the secondary. Still curious to see who gets to man the SS spot come September. It just seems like the players there are just fit for the right positions. Ex: DMC at safety, Arrington at nickel.

Also, if Dane Fletcher, Ras-I Dowling and Jake Bequette can at least stay healthy and contribute, it will be a huge bonus. Their additions are technically free-agent depth signings.
 
My #1 impression from OTA reports is I pray Ras-I stays healthy...kid can ball.
 
After I've been arguing all offseason that the 4-3 is here to stay, BB is running a 3-4 in OTAs...classic.
 
nice breakdown and summation of whats been floated thus far. Thanks.

I would throw out that DA will probably play the flanker alot especially when we have 2 TEs on the field.

Also and this has little to do with what you said but an overall thought I had and it relates to Jenkins and the WR spot. I think the reports of him being with the ones and looking good right now would make sense as he and DA are the ones with experience (until Jules is back thats about it). You need a guy like Jenkins running the reps right before the rooks do especially now in the mini camps when camps start the rooks will get their chance to beat him out and about all I would say about Jenkins positive reviews so far is that maybe that will be a little harder than we all thought it would be but I hope he still gets beat out by Dobson especially for obvious reasons.
 
Stevan Ridley gets set to carry heavier load | Boston Herald

Ridley's bulked up, and is ready for a "bigger workload."

Ridley 2012: 290 carries

Patriot RBs to eclipse 300 carries: 2004 Dillon, 1995-1996 Martin, 1993 Russell

Ridley is not getting 300+ carries. Why is he gaining weight when he's already 220 pounds......
 
Stevan Ridley gets set to carry heavier load | Boston Herald

Ridley's bulked up, and is ready for a "bigger workload."

Ridley 2012: 290 carries

Patriot RBs to eclipse 300 carries: 2004 Dillon, 1995-1996 Martin, 1993 Russell

Ridley is not getting 300+ carries. Why is he gaining weight when he's already 220 pounds......

He may not get more carries overall, but I can see him taking more of the goal line and short yardage snaps this year. I'm guessing he took most of them last year, but we still saw Bolden, Vereen, and Woodhead even down there quite a bit. I bet Ridley's extra bulk will help him in that area.
 
Are you complaining because our 1st and 2nd down power RB is gaining muscle weight?
 
At this point, all that I'm worried about is health and the rookies picking up the system. If Dobson and Collins can play, and Gronk, Hernandez, and Dowling stay healthy, then the Pats will be the team to beat in the NFL. If Harmon or TWilson proves to be competent, all the better.

Unfortunately, I think the odds of Dobson, Collins, Gronk, Hernandez, and Dowling all submitting healthy, productive seasons are awfully low. But we've seen it happen before: a run of luck on health is all that it takes.
 
He may not get more carries overall, but I can see him taking more of the goal line and short yardage snaps this year. I'm guessing he took most of them last year, but we still saw Bolden, Vereen, and Woodhead even down there quite a bit. I bet Ridley's extra bulk will help him in that area.

There were games where Vereen was the goal line back last year. I didn't totally understand why, but he was pretty effective, so no complaints here.
 
Reading the OTA tealeaves...

At this point, all that I'm worried about is health and the rookies picking up the system. If Dobson and Collins can play, and Gronk, Hernandez, and Dowling stay healthy, then the Pats will be the team to beat in the NFL. If Harmon or TWilson proves to be competent, all the better.

Unfortunately, I think the odds of Dobson, Collins, Gronk, Hernandez, and Dowling all submitting healthy, productive seasons are awfully low. But we've seen it happen before: a run of luck on health is all that it takes.

You have to think their bad luck has to run out. Gronk and aherns issues have just been bad luck. Luck is what robbed this team 2 Super Bowls plus a dropped pass.
 
He's no Vrable as a DE/OLB either.

I think Ninko has done a comparable job at this stage of his career. Recall that Vrabes was buried on the Steelers bench for the first three or four years of his career, before coming to the Pats.;)
 
After I've been arguing all offseason that the 4-3 is here to stay, BB is running a 3-4 in OTAs...classic.

I think Belichick is getting ready to un vale his latest innovation to the league, the 3-3-5 or aka 3-4-"4" with a nickle-Moneyball Super Strong Safety, aka "Big Nickel" for Mr. Wilson.

I think he also wants a true Moneyball dime variation in the 4-1-6 or the 3-2-6 if you want.
 
After I've been arguing all offseason that the 4-3 is here to stay, BB is running a 3-4 in OTAs...classic.

Interesting that Chandler Jones was working out at DE and Hightower at OLB. Having said that, I read a tweet (can't remember from whom) that BB uses the 3-4 as a teaching tool so it probably doesn't mean much.
 
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