Re-examining Von Miller at OLB

[Sciz]

That's what happens when you're up 21-3. The Steelers ran out of time after the Mendenhall fumble, but they almost won that game by running it. Would have been the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history.

Pretty much. The Steelers lost the same reason the Pats lost to the Jets. They feel behind and then didn't have time to run when that was the most efficient way to get down the field.

 

[MaineMan]

I think you are being a bit dramatic. The Pats' run defense was pretty decent when they had their run stopping team in there - Spikes, Vince, Brace, Cunningham, etc. The problem is that they don't have enough complete players who can do both, so they keep shuffling front 7 people in and out. That said, even the guys who specialized in stopping the pass still had troubles getting to the QB. That's why I think the top 2 needs for this team are inside pass rush and edge pass rush - in either order.

It isn't just about stopping the run, it's about how many players you need to have involved in doing so and how often. The Ty Warren/Wilfork/Seymour D-line regularly came up with 160 - 175 tackles on their own. Our top three D-linemen in 2010 had 106 - and Wilfork had 57 of those. If you add in the tackles of the next five D-linemen, that get you up to 152 - still less than just the three-man line when the defense had its heyday.

Sure, our 2010 run defense didn't allow many more yards than average, it just took a buttload more guys to keep it that low - guys who could have been doing other things.

A pass rusher isn't going to be able to do squat until the front three get better at stopping the run again.

 

[mgteich]

Are you guys really talking about using our 17 and our 60 for von Miller? He's not likely to be there for less.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Are you guys really talking about using our 17 and our 60 for von Miller? He's not likely to be there for less.

Pretty much no. If I'm trading up, I'm getting Cameron Jordan. I would understand if BB does a tradeup for someone else if he thinks he is a better fit. I was replying off topic with Box, of Houston possibly looking to move back to secure a NT that doesn't qual the 11th pick. Not neccessarily us.

 

[TealSox]

Von Miller Hype Alert!!!!!!!!!!

Don't take this wrong guys, but it sounds like some have got bit by the Von Miller bug and are willing to make concessions to the Patriot's scheme to fit him in. I got caught in the hype too, but I can't see the Patriots using their first pick in the first round on a guy that (fingers crossed) can fit the scheme, but will most likely start out on the bench or as a pass rush specialist.

I want to make a Vernon Gholston comparison, but the Jets busted pick is still 20 lbs heavier.

As a Patriots fan, it is painful seeing players like Von Miller and Ryan Kerrigan, knowing that they will make a name for themself on some other team.

 

[WelshPat]

I like Miller but I think he's gone in the top 7 picks...

Also don't bother with the Gholsten comparisons, because your really reaching. Miller has looked good in coverage drills, Gholsten didn't, the obv difference in size, Miller has stood up for a lot of his college career, Gholsten didn't... there's no comparison.

 

[Shelterdog]

Why worry so much about Miller? If we could pick high enough to get him wouldn't we want Quinn/Dareus/AJ Green/even Peterson or Amuakamara as a FS conversion?

 

[onegr8om]

Why worry so much about Miller? If we could pick high enough to get him wouldn't we want Quinn/Dareus/AJ Green/even Peterson or Amuakamara as a FS conversion?

I also think Miller will go too high for us, BUT i also feel that at least ONE of the other players you mention will slide DOWN far enough for us to trade up and snatch him. And to be honest, i dont think we could go wrong with ANY of them(Although i DEFINITELY prefer defense or a WR).

 

[bucky]

Are you guys really talking about using our 17 and our 60 for von Miller? He's not likely to be there for less.

I think the way this draft is shaping up, we'll be moving up anyway. It's just a question of how much and for whom. Personally, I'd be happy to give up 60, 74, and 92 in order to assure we get the 3 guys we want with the first 3 picks.

 

[Marqui]

Personally, I'd be happy to give up 60, 74, and 92 in order to assure we get the 3 guys we want with the first 3 picks.

I don't even see how they could do it any other way. The Pats right now clearly need impact players at the top of the draft, not a bunch of 3rd-7th rounders.

 

[mgteich]

I guess that we could start drafting like the jets do every year. If this ertr last year, posters might have ended up with Kindle, Hughes and Gronk. I like Belichick's strategy better.

I think the way this draft is shaping up, we'll be moving up anyway. It's just a question of how much and for whom. Personally, I'd be happy to give up 60, 74, and 92 in order to assure we get the 3 guys we want with the first 3 picks.

 

[patchick]

I guess that we could start drafting like the jets do every year. If this ertr last year, posters might have ended up with Kindle, Hughes and Gronk. I like Belichick's strategy better.

Who's saying "every year"? This particular year features a shallow draft, a youth-packed roster, and a lot of ammo to move around. IF the Patriots think that moving up would position them for a couple of rare impact players, this is an ideal year for that strategy.

 

[patfanken]

I guess that we could start drafting like the jets do every year. If this ertr last year, posters might have ended up with Kindle, Hughes and Gronk. I like Belichick's strategy better.

That's not exactly fair MG, BB has shown he'll move up when he has a guy he really wants....and he'll pay well for the privilege. Its just that in the last few years, the VALUE has been in trading down. If he want's a guy, I'm sure he'll be willing to give up multiple picks to make the move, though I doubt that 28 or 33 will be one of them.

The thing I have issue here in this thread, is not whether Von Miller is a good pick or a player to move up for. Its the seeming monolithic thinking that only certain body types will fit in the Pats "system".

Hey guys...they years of the "system" player is OVER. I forget the exact number but someone (probably Reiss) reported that the Pats were in a 4-3 type alignment some ungodly percentage of the time. This is the era of the "sub package". An era where "backups" are getting more snaps than the so called "starters".

So I think the issue is more on potential production in one of the myriad "sub packages" vs a guy who simply fits the so called "2 gap" mold.

Face it guys, right now the offenses are simply better than the defenses. If there was a dominant defense in the NFL this season, statistically it was the Steelers, and they were shredded by the Packers who had no running attack and average TEs and WRs. They gave up 24 points and it would have been more if the Packers receivers could hold on to the ball

We are in an era where a good offense will beat a good defense 90% of the time. And until defenses start to catch up, different out of the box strategies will have to be developed around the concept of creating the "big play", because it will be rare when an offense will be consistently stopped by any defense without the "big play"

JMHO

 

[Sciz]

I forget the exact number but someone (probably Reiss) reported that the Pats were in a 4-3 type alignment some ungodly percentage of the time. This is the era of the "sub package". An era where "backups" are getting more snaps than the so called "starters".

I believe it was 57% of the snaps were in subpackages, many of which had 4-man lines, like the 4-2-5 that the Pats run a lot.

I wasn't even in my teens for the beginning of the Pats' dynasty, so somebody should correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't most of the players on the 01/03/04 teams 3-down guys that played also in subpackages? That one thing I want to see, 3 down guys that can play in the base and in subpackages.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

That's not exactly fair MG, BB has shown he'll move up when he has a guy he really wants....and he'll pay well for the privilege. Its just that in the last few years, the VALUE has been in trading down. If he want's a guy, I'm sure he'll be willing to give up multiple picks to make the move, though I doubt that 28 or 33 will be one of them.

The thing I have issue here in this thread, is not whether Von Miller is a good pick or a player to move up for. Its the seeming monolithic thinking that only certain body types will fit in the Pats "system".

Hey guys...they years of the "system" player is OVER. I forget the exact number but someone (probably Reiss) reported that the Pats were in a 4-3 type alignment some ungodly percentage of the time. This is the era of the "sub package". An era where "backups" are getting more snaps than the so called "starters".

So I think the issue is more on potential production in one of the myriad "sub packages" vs a guy who simply fits the so called "2 gap" mold.

Face it guys, right now the offenses are simply better than the defenses. If there was a dominant defense in the NFL this season, statistically it was the Steelers, and they were shredded by the Packers who had no running attack and average TEs and WRs. They gave up 24 points and it would have been more if the Packers receivers could hold on to the ball

We are in an era where a good offense will beat a good defense 90% of the time. And until defenses start to catch up, different out of the box strategies will have to be developed around the concept of creating the "big play", because it will be rare when an offense will be consistently stopped by any defense without the "big play"

JMHO

The reality was the Patriots had guys that did many things well (Seymour) and guys who were more specialized (Jarvis Green, Phifer/Johnson).

Today's discussion is different because it's pass rush specialist, pass rush specialist, pass rush specialist........

Based on reports, this kid Miller is good in space, has pass rush skills and works hard. The kid from Missouri appears to have similiar traits.

If these kids have great motors, football IQ, and can put some weight on- go get'em. A high pick should be more than a one trick pony.

Guys like Kindle and Hughes were coveted last year because they were suppose to be pass rush divas.

Having guys counter to culture and system means you will have no culture or system.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Guys like Kindle and Hughes were coveted last year because they were suppose to be pass rush divas.

Having guys counter to culture and system means you will have no culture or system.

I don't agree with that. BB has always had "specialists" on his team. Granted most (Slater, Aiken, etc.) were on special teams, but there is no hard and fast BB law that states no specialists on defense.

If anything TBC is an extremely well compensated specialist on our defense and if we can upgrade his position, why not?

 

[mgteich]

I agree that Belichick will move up if he sees a player that he really wants.

I agree that players shouldn't be avoided just beacuse they don't see to fit in to the system

That's not exactly fair MG, BB has shown he'll move up when he has a guy he really wants....and he'll pay well for the privilege. Its just that in the last few years, the VALUE has been in trading down. If he want's a guy, I'm sure he'll be willing to give up multiple picks to make the move, though I doubt that 28 or 33 will be one of them.

The thing I have issue here in this thread, is not whether Von Miller is a good pick or a player to move up for. Its the seeming monolithic thinking that only certain body types will fit in the Pats "system".

Hey guys...they years of the "system" player is OVER. I forget the exact number but someone (probably Reiss) reported that the Pats were in a 4-3 type alignment some ungodly percentage of the time. This is the era of the "sub package". An era where "backups" are getting more snaps than the so called "starters".

So I think the issue is more on potential production in one of the myriad "sub packages" vs a guy who simply fits the so called "2 gap" mold.

Face it guys, right now the offenses are simply better than the defenses. If there was a dominant defense in the NFL this season, statistically it was the Steelers, and they were shredded by the Packers who had no running attack and average TEs and WRs. They gave up 24 points and it would have been more if the Packers receivers could hold on to the ball

We are in an era where a good offense will beat a good defense 90% of the time. And until defenses start to catch up, different out of the box strategies will have to be developed around the concept of creating the "big play", because it will be rare when an offense will be consistently stopped by any defense without the "big play"

JMHO

 

[mgteich]

Every year we have a dozen threads on who we would trade up for. Belichick is certainly willing to trade up a bit for value. He has not shown any inclination to make major moves involving 2 top draft picks which is what it would take for Miller. But, I agree that if Belichick saw the value, he would trade away 2 o3 3 picks for the right player.

IMO, this year is no different than any other year. A week or so after the combine, after we've sifted the analyses, we will have a more informed guess with with regard to who WE might want to trade for. We will also guess who BELICHICK might actually trade up for. We will also indicate what we are willing to give up for these superstuds.
===================================
WHY WILL THIS DRAFT BE DIFFERENT FROM OTHER DRAFTS?

2010
Folks wanted to give virtually the whole draft for Suh.
Many wanted to make a major move up for Berry, McCain or even Spiller.

2009
Folks wanted to trade the farm for Curry or Raji.

2008
We wanted a fron seven player badly. Many wanted to amke a major move up for Long, Dorsey, Gholston or Ellis.
==========================

SHALLOW DRAFT
The question is where the effect of this takes place. And BTW, teams will not think 3rd and 4th rounders are worth much as trade bait if they belive there is no value at that time in the draft.

My current strategy would be to trade our 2 thrirds for a 2nd ending up with 5 players in the top 60. This requires trading 92 and 74 for say 55. We would then have 17, 28, 33, 55 and 60.

MY BOTTOM LINE

There will be those who want to make a major move up for their ciritical player who might be as good as Suh or Curry or Gholston. Belichick may or may not take that risk.

For me, I would rather have 2 or 3 bites at the apple, rather than put all my eggs in one backet.

I may change my mind by mid March, after the combine, after we can better identify who the studs are, and if we have re-signed Light and Mankins. If we have not re-signed these folks, we need 2-3 OL's, 2 front seven players and a safety in our first six picks.

For me, I find it most unlikely that I would be willing to give up 2-3 of our top 4 picks for one player.

Who's saying "every year"? This particular year features a shallow draft, a youth-packed roster, and a lot of ammo to move around. IF the Patriots think that moving up would position them for a couple of rare impact players, this is an ideal year for that strategy.

 

[bucky]

Who's saying "every year"? This particular year features a shallow draft, a youth-packed roster, and a lot of ammo to move around. IF the Patriots think that moving up would position them for a couple of rare impact players, this is an ideal year for that strategy.

Thank you for saying exactly what I was going to say, but a lot more succinctly.

This draft reminds me of 2003 when 11 or 12 DL went in the 1st round. And while many people predicted we'd take Ty Warren at 19, we had to trade up to 13 for him. I think it'll be similar this year - with perhaps half of the first round being either DL or OLBs. We may have to trade up from 17 even if want a guy like Wilkerson or Houston.

 

[Belichicknumber1]

Thank you for saying exactly what I was going to say, but a lot more succinctly.

This draft reminds me of 2003 when 11 or 12 DL went in the 1st round. And while many people predicted we'd take Ty Warren at 19, we had to trade up to 13 for him. I think it'll be similar this year - with perhaps half of the first round being either DL or OLBs. We may have to trade up from 17 even if want a guy like Wilkerson or Houston.

I am a huge fan of Wilkerson but i havent seen him in any mocks getting drafted in the first round. I would love to grab Miller at 17 then Wilkerson with the next pick at 28. Would be a unreal draft.