Re-examining Von Miller at OLB

[bucky]

He will get run over in the run game. He's even smaller than Dwight Freeney who is horrible at anything other than rushing the passer. Set the edge. Fuggedaboutit!

Freeney is not even 6'1". But that's not nearly as important as the fact that he is not asked to set the edge. In their defense, they're pass rushing almost 100% of the time. So that's a really crappy example. Setting the edge is not just about weight. It's about height, arm length, technique, weight, strength, and agility. Assuming he'll be able to learn the technique, he passes on everything except weight.

No, no he does not check out. Not even close. 6'2.5 inches tall and 237 lbs. Are his official senior bowl measurements. BB is looking for 6'4" or taller, 250 lbs or heavier. That's a huge difference in measurements. At the combine, Matthews measured out at 6'3 240 lbs and BB passed on him what 2 or 3 times. And Matthews is a measureably bigger player than Von Miller.

Where do you come up with those number. Here's a link to one of my posts form last year with a source who claims "clean" measurables are 6026 and 245 lbs. So he's only 1/8th of an inch shorter (with long arms that make up for it) and 8 lbs light.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...-olb-measurables-draft-page5.html#post1783354

With regard to Mathews, I suspect the #1 issue on him wasn't his size, but the lack of game film on him, as he was not even a starter for 1 full year at USC.

 

[VJCPatriot]

BB has been quoted as saying he wants 6'4-6'5 guys who run in the range of 4.6-4.7 40s. None of our OLB weigh less than 250 lbs and most of them are in the 260 range.

Measurements for Miller are right here: 2011 Senior Bowl South Roster|Seattle Seahawks 12th Man Army

He's clearly undersized for what BB is willing to spend for in an early pick. And we're certainly not moving up for him if we passed on Matthews who is clearly bigger.

There's a big difference between being a good tackler and setting the edge btw. Smaller guys can be fine tacklers, just look at say Bob Sanders. But to set the edge you need a number of factors, and size and a strong base are very important factors in helping with that. Von Miller might turn out to be a fine tackler, but his lack of size and strength are not good indicators of him being able to set the edge worth a damn in our 3-4 system where the linebackers have to take on 300 lbs OL directly at times.

 

[dryheat44]

BB has been quoted as saying he wants 6'4-6'5 guys who run in the range of 4.6-4.7 40s. None of our OLB weigh less than 250 lbs and most of them are in the 260 range.

Measurements for Miller are right here: 2011 Senior Bowl South Roster|Seattle Seahawks 12th Man Army

He's clearly undersized for what BB is willing to spend for in an early pick. And we're certainly not moving up for him if we passed on Matthews who is clearly bigger.

There's a big difference between being a good tackler and setting the edge btw. Smaller guys can be fine tacklers, just look at say Bob Sanders. But to set the edge you need a number of factors, and size and a strong base are very important factors in helping with that. Von Miller might turn out to be a fine tackler, but his lack of size and strength are not good indicators of him being able to set the edge worth a damn in our 3-4 system where the linebackers have to take on 300 lbs OL directly at times.

While I don't expect Belichick to draft Miller, you can't compare his college career to Matthews. In the end, production and game tape outweigh every measurable and prototype out there. Matthews had very little of it. Miller has 30-something games worth.

But if we're talking measurables, as a rough guide, Belichick wants his every-down DEs to go about 6-4 and 300 or better. Those 6'2"-ish guys like Austin wouldn't typically be on his shopping list for a first round pick either. Size-wise Wilkerson is the prototype, but I don't know if he can play a 2-gap 5.

 

[Shelterdog]

Can we just stop with the "BB didn't draft Matthews because Clay is to small" routine?

We don't know why BB traded down instead of drafting Matthews. He might have thought Matthews was too small; he might have thought Matthews wasn't productive; he might have thought Matthews would be very, very good but getting a zillion picks (Gronk/Tate/Butler/Edelman) was still worth it.

Von Miller's senior bowl measurements from January (6'2.5", 237) are here:

Senior Bowl Measurements: South

If he really was a clean 240 last year the measurements aren't positive for him as a 3-4 OLB-his weight is basically flat going from age 21 to age 22 (he turns 22 in a month)-so it's hard to expect him to gain much weight over the next few years. Unless he can get on the magical Clay Matthews program.

 

[MaineMan]

While I don't expect Belichick to draft Miller, you can't compare his college career to Matthews. In the end, production and game tape outweigh every measurable and prototype out there. Matthews had very little of it. Miller has 30-something games worth.

But if we're talking measurables, as a rough guide, Belichick wants his every-down DEs to go about 6-4 and 300 or better. Those 6'2"-ish guys like Austin wouldn't typically be on his shopping list for a first round pick either. Size-wise Wilkerson is the prototype, but I don't know if he can play a 2-gap 5.

I thought I'd read somewhere that Wilkerson had been playing 2-gap. He's also been more of a tackle-hound (70, 61 over the past two seasons) than a penetrator, though he does have decent TFL/sack numbers so it's not like he hasn't gotten into the backfield. The big question on him has to be quality of competition in the MAC, although the Owls didn't get blown out at all by Penn State this season or by UCLA in 2009 and Wilkerson performed well in both those games.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I thought I'd read somewhere that Wilkerson had been playing 2-gap. He's also been more of a tackle-hound (70, 61 over the past two seasons) than a penetrator, though he does have decent TFL/sack numbers so it's not like he hasn't gotten into the backfield. The big question on him has to be quality of competition in the MAC, although the Owls didn't get blown out at all by Penn State this season or by UCLA in 2009 and Wilkerson performed well in both those games.

In Golden's scheme he was a one gap player, but not a penetrator. He is very good at stacking and shedding and that is why he gets so many tackles.

If Wilkerson had a thicker base, like Dareus, I would call for BB to take him at #17.

Even so, I think Wilkerson struggled to hold ground at the POA in college, so in the pros, he will look like he is on skates.

I would be very happy to see BB take him at #28, but it comes with the understanding that Wilkerson needs a red shirt year to learn technique and get much stronger in the lower half.

 

[bucky]

I would be very happy to see BB take him at #28, but it comes with the understanding that Wilkerson needs a red shirt year to learn technique and get much stronger in the lower half.

I'll go along with that. Wilkerson at 28 and sign Shaun Ellis for a year or 2 to teach him the ropes. Aldon Smith at 17. And we're ready to roll.

 

[MaineMan]

In Golden's scheme he was a one gap player, but not a penetrator. He is very good at stacking and shedding and that is why he gets so many tackles.

If Wilkerson had a thicker base, like Dareus, I would call for BB to take him at #17.

Even so, I think Wilkerson struggled to hold ground at the POA in college, so in the pros, he will look like he is on skates.

I would be very happy to see BB take him at #28, but it comes with the understanding that Wilkerson needs a red shirt year to learn technique and get much stronger in the lower half.

Good to know. At #28, I'd kinda rather draft a guy who's more NFL-ready. OTOH, with the D-line, a guy can get a few OTJ training snaps in here and there at an increasing rate if things are going well - and maybe even if they aren't. Lord knows it seemed to work that way in 2010 quite a bit.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

At #28, I'd kinda rather draft a guy who's more NFL-ready. OTOH, with the D-line, a guy can get a few OTJ training snaps in here and there at an increasing rate if things are going well - and maybe even if they aren't. Lord knows it seemed to work that way in 2010 quite a bit.

Realistically at #28, the guys that are most NFL ready and can have a shot at playing time on our team are DB's, RB's and maybe WR's.

Outside of Alabama, no college team is running as sophisticated a defense as ours and even at Alabama, they have dumbed down the coverages a lot.

I still think Dareus could be the next Seymour in our defense.

 

[MaineMan]

Realistically at #28, the guys that are most NFL ready and can have a shot at playing time on our team are DB's, RB's and maybe WR's.

Outside of Alabama, no college team is running as sophisticated a defense as ours and even at Alabama, they have dumbed down the coverages a lot.

I still think Dareus could be the next Seymour in our defense.

Yeah. I'd pretty much agree

 

[Sciz]

I think Dareus can be great in a 1-gap scheme, but he's not going to be nearly the NFL player in our scheme that he was in Alabama's scheme in college.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think Dareus can be great in a 1-gap scheme, but he's not going to be nearly the NFL player in our scheme that he was in Alabama's scheme in college.

I think if you watch the Auburn - Alabama game and watch Dareus maul the right side of the Auburn O Line in the first half, I think you will see just how powerful Dareus is as a two gap defender.

Interesting that in the second half Auburn put the OG and OT on Dareus and had the FB or TE help as well. It caused Upshaw on the other side to have a big second half, but not big enough to overcome all of Ingram's fumbles.

 

[bucky]

It appears Miller weighed in at 246 at the combine. Anybody have any opinions on that? I think it's almost a guarantee that he doesn't make it out of the top 7.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

It appears Miller weighed in at 246 at the combine. Anybody have any opinions on that? I think it's almost a guarantee that he doesn't make it out of the top 7.

In my mind Miller is the most sudden player in this draft. And as a pass rusher coming off the edge in our defense, he would be similar to Elvis Dummervil in Denver was two seasons ago, but much better as a pass rusher and coverage player.

However just like Dummervil, every team we play would run straight at him unless we "cover him up" with Wilfork (as a DE), Mayo and McCourty.

The question BB has to answer is does having Miller's 10 plus sacks; Miller's 10 plus QB pressures and the 5 to 10 holding penalties Miller will create, equal the run stopping void his presence creates?

In my mind if we have a viable option at NT (say a player like Cody if we would have drafted him last year), we could move Wilfork over to DE and then our defense would not suffer much against the run with a Miller in the lineup, but would have a tremendously better pass rush.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

In my mind Miller is the most sudden player in this draft. And as a pass rusher coming off the edge in our defense, he would be similar to Elvis Dummervil in Denver was two seasons ago, but much better as a pass rusher and coverage player.

However just like Dummervil, every team we play would run straight at him unless we "cover him up" with Wilfork (as a DE), Mayo and McCourty.

The question BB has to answer is does having Miller's 10 plus sacks; Miller's 10 plus QB pressures and the 5 to 10 holding penalties Miller will create, equal the run stopping void his presence creates?

In my mind if we have a viable option at NT (say a player like Cody if we would have drafted him last year), we could move Wilfork over to DE and then our defense would not suffer much against the run with a Miller in the lineup, but would have a tremendously better pass rush.

This would never happen (and I wouldn't want to do it if I were BB), but if you could trade 17 + 33 + 74 to get Miller, and then get Phil Taylor at 28, would you?

 

[Off The Grid]

In my mind Miller is the most sudden player in this draft. And as a pass rusher coming off the edge in our defense, he would be similar to Elvis Dummervil in Denver was two seasons ago, but much better as a pass rusher and coverage player.

However just like Dummervil, every team we play would run straight at him unless we "cover him up" with Wilfork (as a DE), Mayo and McCourty.

The question BB has to answer is does having Miller's 10 plus sacks; Miller's 10 plus QB pressures and the 5 to 10 holding penalties Miller will create, equal the run stopping void his presence creates?

In my mind if we have a viable option at NT (say a player like Cody if we would have drafted him last year), we could move Wilfork over to DE and then our defense would not suffer much against the run with a Miller in the lineup, but would have a tremendously better pass rush.

Drafting Miller would be my personal NIGHTMARE.

Aldon Smith, at least, has some @$$ to'm: He COULD develop into an Edge Setter.

And God knows his Pass Rushing Repertoire has some MAGIC.

But you and I certainly see alike ~ to some extent ~ on that other thing...

~ Phil Taylor
~ Vince Wilfork
~ Kenrick Ellis

OTG's HALF TON Front Wall, baby!! :rocker:

Put those guys Up Front...and the Flankers can RAGE!!!

 

[Patriot Missile]

Drafting Miller would be my personal NIGHTMARE.

You are nuts.<{personal attack} He is the real deal and will be taught by the best coach in the nfl. 246 is plenty as a fist year olb. He will grow into the weight easily. Speed kills and he has enormous athletism to go with it.

Aldon Smith is the biggest boom or bust pick in the first round. Does he has the athletism to make the switch? Why did he dog it so many times last year when the play was away from him? The Patriots are a team first defense, so you have to be able to do all the little things that make the entire team successfull. Not saying he can't, but you bet the Patriots will see this on his film. Guy has serious potential, no denying it.

 

[Off The Grid]

In my mind Miller is the most sudden player in this draft. And as a pass rusher coming off the edge in our defense, he would be similar to Elvis Dummervil in Denver was two seasons ago, but much better as a pass rusher and coverage player.

However just like Dummervil, every team we play would run straight at him unless we "cover him up" with Wilfork (as a DE), Mayo and McCourty.

The question BB has to answer is does having Miller's 10 plus sacks; Miller's 10 plus QB pressures and the 5 to 10 holding penalties Miller will create, equal the run stopping void his presence creates?

In my mind if we have a viable option at NT (say a player like Cody if we would have drafted him last year), we could move Wilfork over to DE and then our defense would not suffer much against the run with a Miller in the lineup, but would have a tremendously better pass rush.

Just for the record, I don't think my earlier response gave this intriguing post of yours the credit it deserved.

The Method behind OTG's Half Ton Front Wall Madness is that there are simply very few Willie Mac types coming down the pike: As you know, there're plenty of Flankers who can Rush The Passer, but few who can do that AND persistently Set The Edge.

That being the case, my notion of Cornering The Super Beast Market, by hauling in Phil Taylor AND Kenrick Ellis, to go with Vince Wilfork, is not only about my obsession with building a Front Wall that will raise TERROR in the hearts of our Enemies...It's about forging a Front Line that is SO formidable against the Run, that our Flankers need not be 275 pounds.

...All of which goes hand in glove with your intriguing ideas.

Ultimately, I would go the other way and pass on Miller, because I think the best teams in the world MIGHT be able to exploit him in the run game, even with the unspeakable Front Line I've proposed, and I believe that could be FATAL to our Championship Quest.

But you've certainly made an extremely strong Argument FOR Miller, and I do not presume to have all the answers.

 

[Sciz]

You are nuts.<{personal attack} He is the real deal and will be taught by the best coach in the nfl. 246 is plenty as a fist year olb. He will grow into the weight easily. Speed kills and he has enormous athletism to go with it.

And how high is "the weight" that he can grow into? He's already the heaviest he's ever been in his career, and we don't even know that that will impact his athleticism. If he gets to 256, for example, which is decent for a Pats OLB, how would that affect his athleticism?

The Patriots value bulk more than the rest of the 3-4 teams and value athleticism a little less. Drafting a guy who has great athleticism just to bulk him up seems like a waste. And even then, we're talking about a guy who will never be any better than below average against the run in this scheme.

 

[Patriot Missile]

And how high is "the weight" that he can grow into? He's already the heaviest he's ever been in his career, and we don't even know that that will impact his athleticism. If he gets to 256, for example, which is decent for a Pats OLB, how would that affect his athleticism?

The Patriots value bulk more than the rest of the 3-4 teams and value athleticism a little less. Drafting a guy who has great athleticism just to bulk him up seems like a waste. And even then, we're talking about a guy who will never be any better than below average against the run in this scheme.

I believe his combine will set the record straight as far as playing with the weight. If his combine performance suffers, particulary his10 yard splits and change of directions than I will concede there may be a problem. If he blows it away, I'm sure 250-255 is attainable. Speed and athletism to bulk up is ok imo. He was what 238? He's a 4-3 lb right now and it's not like we are trying to bulk up a WR here? He's on the cusp looking in.

As far as predicting someone will be below average for there whole career against stopping the run is a bit premature. Especially considering the Patriots coaching staff. I can see why it is a concern for any fan, scout. But as of right now it is only a question mark and not a fact that he can't stop the run in this system.