Re-examining Von Miller at OLB

[patsfaninpa]

For his Senior Bowl weigh-in he came in at 6' 2 1/2" 237 lbs which puts him at the low end of the measurable scale for a NE LB. His 34" arms and 9 1/2" hands were a plus. Miller is an accomplished edge rusher, another plus. Miller has been playing in a 3-4 of sorts, but one where he was still being asked to engage blockers with the wrong shoulder, he was getting some exposure to dropping into coverage - some good, some not so good from that mix. He was more fluid in coverage at the Senior Bowl, a plus.

I suspect he was at 237 as a result of the conditioning work he was doing for the Combine between their bowl game and Senior Bowl week, I would expect him to be in the 240-242 range for the Combine.

Mayo was 242 at the Combine and reported he was at 250 at the start of Training Camp his sophomore season. NE still lists him at 242 on the unofficial roster.

Rosevelt Colvin was 6' 2 3/8" 256 at the Combine, NE listed him at 6'3" 250 on their roster, I doubt he played much over 255 at anytime while he was with NE.

I suspect Von Miller has the potential to grow into a Rosevelt Colvin quality player -- I could live with that.

Draft Strategy: If Miller gets by Arizona at #5, I wouldn't worry about anyone before Houston taking a strong interest in him. Houston hired Wade Phillips to switch to a Dallas/SD 3-4 and he may consider Miller a Demarcus Ware type prospect. If he gets by Houston, I could see him sliding to #17.

With Houston switching to a 3-4. They desperately need a NG. Okoye isn't big enough to handle it. I can see them taking a shot at Phil Taylor. Would be a bit of a reach. But, just a hunch. I'm working on a mock and thinking of slotting him there. I'm not as down on Miller as many. If he's there. You take him. Unless Cam Jordan slides.

 

[Shelterdog]

To pick on the Von Miller pick some more, not only does he not fit in with the base 3-4, he doesn't really fit with what NE is doing in sub packages, does he? We've been using bigger OLBs as defensive ends in the sub packages (Bugress, TBC, Cunningham, Moore, Ninkovich) and they'll just run over poor little Von if we have him playing on the line.

Smith and Kerrigan seem like infinitely better fits who are also less likely to be drafted in the top six or seven picks.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

To pick on the Von Miller pick some more, not only does he not fit in with the base 3-4, he doesn't really fit with what NE is doing in sub packages, does he? We've been using bigger OLBs as defensive ends in the sub packages (Bugress, TBC, Cunningham, Moore, Ninkovich) and they'll just run over poor little Von if we have him playing on the line.

Smith and Kerrigan seem like infinitely better fits who are also less likely to be drafted in the top six or seven picks.

I don;t think Miller is all that little, as a matter of fact, he might be about the same size as James Harrision or Woodley.

The more film I watch of Keisler of Stanford, the more I think he fits what we want our OLB's to do. He is raw and needs a lot of work with Woicik, but after a red shirt year, he could be special in our defense.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

With Houston switching to a 3-4. They desperately need a NG. Okoye isn't big enough to handle it. I can see them taking a shot at Phil Taylor. Would be a bit of a reach. But, just a hunch. I'm working on a mock and thinking of slotting him there. I'm not as down on Miller as many. If he's there. You take him. Unless Cam Jordan slides.

I also wonder who will play NT for Houston. I am not sure that they need a behemoth because Phillips made the Dallas 3-4 work with Ratcliff on the nose and he is not that big.

Houston will need a big stud ILB because Ryans is small and coming back from injury and Cushings was horrible on the inside. And Houston also needs secondary help big time.

 

[Shelterdog]

I don;t think Miller is all that little, as a matter of fact, he might be about the same size as James Harrision or Woodley.

The more film I watch of Keisler of Stanford, the more I think he fits what we want our OLB's to do. He is raw and needs a lot of work with Woicik, but after a red shirt year, he could be special in our defense.

I'm not sure why it's relevant whether Miller is the same size as Harrison and Woodley. Maybe he'd be a good fit for Pittsburgh but that doesn't mean he's a good fit for a two-gap system where he's going to have to stand up a right tackle and disengage to make a block.

Miller is much smaller than Woodley and it's not up for debate. Von Miller was 6'2 1/2". 237 at the senior bowl. Lamarr Woodley was 6'2" 266 at the NFL combine.

He's much closer in size to Harrison. Harrison is listed at 6' even, 242.

I like Keiser and wouldn't mind picking up him or KJ Wright, even if we do add a first round OLB type.

 

[IllegalContact]

They played opposite sides.

vrabel didn't play next to seymour. he played next to warren

 

[IllegalContact]

von miller would be situational for the pats. his size does not work well in a 2 gap scheme.

he could do pretty well in a 1 gap scheme like the chargers

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Does anyone know what weight his frame can be expected to handle?

Also, what would his quickness be if he weighted out at maximum?

The 237 lbs is less significant if he can bulk to 275 and maintain adequate burst.

 

[bucky]

To pick on the Von Miller pick some more, not only does he not fit in with the base 3-4, he doesn't really fit with what NE is doing in sub packages, does he? We've been using bigger OLBs as defensive ends in the sub packages (Bugress, TBC, Cunningham, Moore, Ninkovich) and they'll just run over poor little Von if we have him playing on the line.

You're right. New England's strategy for sub packages has been to send out physical specimen like Shawn Crable, and miserably fail to get to the QB, even when blitzing. Von Miller wouldn't fit that at all.


IMO the entire edge setting thing is a little overrated. I'm sure it would take him a couple of years to become a consistent edge setter. But the fact of the matter is that the kind of plays he does make are far more important and impactfull than the occasional failure to set the edge. This guy is absolutely awesome in space - not only rushing the passer, but also in coverage and pursuit. And he's an outstanding tackler in the open field - which would be a nice upgrade over the likes of Nink, TBC, and Guyton.

 

[MaineMan]

I also wonder who will play NT for Houston. I am not sure that they need a behemoth because Phillips made the Dallas 3-4 work with Ratcliff on the nose and he is not that big.

Houston will need a big stud ILB because Ryans is small and coming back from injury and Cushings was horrible on the inside. And Houston also needs secondary help big time.

I think the Texans' still have Shaun Cody. At 6'4"/292, he's exactly the same size as Ratliff. Okoye is 6'2"/302.

For DE, Williams is 6'6"/290, but Antonio Smith, at 6'3"/274, may be more OLB-size. They also have Jesse Nading at 6'3"/258. Cushing is 6'3"/248.

You're right about Ryans - he seems very tiny. But none of their ILBs are particularly large.

Part of their problem may be that their D-line guys don't rack up many tackles at all. Their LBs rack up a lot of tackles but don't rack up many pass defense stats. This may also have been part of the problem with the Dallas defense this season - Olshansky, Bowen and Spears didn't tackle well at all and this was Ratliff's worst season tackling since he replaced Ferguson on the nose when Parcells left.

Anyway, Houston has a buttload of defensive holes to fill to make the transition. Fortunately, they don't appear to need much at all on the offensive side and could, hypothetically, spend all their picks on D.

 

[Patriot Missile]

You're right. New England's strategy for sub packages has been to send out physical specimen like Shawn Crable, and miserably fail to get to the QB, even when blitzing. Von Miller wouldn't fit that at all.


IMO the entire edge setting thing is a little overrated. I'm sure it would take him a couple of years to become a consistent edge setter. But the fact of the matter is that the kind of plays he does make are far more important and impactfull than the occasional failure to set the edge. This guy is absolutely awesome in space - not only rushing the passer, but also in coverage and pursuit. And he's an outstanding tackler in the open field - which would be a nice upgrade over the likes of Nink, TBC, and Guyton.

You are right, it is overated. A lot of scouts claim he has very strong arms and can push off tackles with the best of them. He seemed to do alright at the senior bowl where some of the best were invited.

Some people are so blinded by these measureables that they don't consider a guy if his height and weight don't match this chart. I would wait to see his combine before I wrote the guy off. What if he shows all the strength needed in a personal workout for the Pats?

 

[MaineMan]

You're right. New England's strategy for sub packages has been to send out physical specimen like Shawn Crable, and miserably fail to get to the QB, even when blitzing. Von Miller wouldn't fit that at all.


IMO the entire edge setting thing is a little overrated. I'm sure it would take him a couple of years to become a consistent edge setter. But the fact of the matter is that the kind of plays he does make are far more important and impactfull than the occasional failure to set the edge. This guy is absolutely awesome in space - not only rushing the passer, but also in coverage and pursuit. And he's an outstanding tackler in the open field - which would be a nice upgrade over the likes of Nink, TBC, and Guyton.

Failure to set the edge wasn't the problem this season. It was all the LBs having to spend so much time trying to clean up the INSIDE runs that the D-line couldn't stop. Once your D-line walls off/stops most of the inside runs (like the Warren/Wilfor/Seymour line did), THEN setting the edge becomes critical in order to limit running lanes with minimum personnel.

 

[MaineMan]

You are right, it is overated. A lot of scouts claim he has very strong arms and can push off tackles with the best of them. He seemed to do alright at the senior bowl where some of the best were invited.

Some people are so blinded by these measureables that they don't consider a guy if his height and weight don't match this chart. I would wait to see his combine before I wrote the guy off. What if he shows all the strength needed in a personal workout for the Pats?

Personally, I could give a crap if he shows all the strength needed. The Pats have LBs who can play the run. The problem is that they spent too much of their time/effort doing so because the D-line couldn't stop anything. So, I really don't see the point in trading a bunch of picks to move UP to get yet another LB, no matter how good his rush or tackling or coverage, when we need, first of all, a DE who can tackle and stop the run before it ever gets TO the LBs. Without that, Miller probably doesn't get to be in coverage and his rush is unlikely to be effective because he'll be spending all his time tackling ball-carriers. Like I said, we already have guys who can do that.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

With Houston switching to a 3-4. They desperately need a NG. Okoye isn't big enough to handle it. I can see them taking a shot at Phil Taylor. Would be a bit of a reach. But, just a hunch. I'm working on a mock and thinking of slotting him there. I'm not as down on Miller as many. If he's there. You take him. Unless Cam Jordan slides.

As others noted, NGs come in many sizes/styles, we also have to take into account the value of a potential NG at #11 - which looks to be poor at the moment.

 

[bucky]

Personally, I could give a crap if he shows all the strength needed. The Pats have LBs who can play the run. The problem is that they spent too much of their time/effort doing so because the D-line couldn't stop anything. So, I really don't see the point in trading a bunch of picks to move UP to get yet another LB, no matter how good his rush or tackling or coverage, when we need, first of all, a DE who can tackle and stop the run before it ever gets TO the LBs. Without that, Miller probably doesn't get to be in coverage and his rush is unlikely to be effective because he'll be spending all his time tackling ball-carriers. Like I said, we already have guys who can do that.

I think you are being a bit dramatic. The Pats' run defense was pretty decent when they had their run stopping team in there - Spikes, Vince, Brace, Cunningham, etc. The problem is that they don't have enough complete players who can do both, so they keep shuffling front 7 people in and out. That said, even the guys who specialized in stopping the pass still had troubles getting to the QB. That's why I think the top 2 needs for this team are inside pass rush and edge pass rush - in either order.

 

[Patriot Missile]

As others noted, NGs come in many sizes/styles, we also have to take into account the value of a potential NG at #11 - which looks to be poor at the moment.

Maybe they will fall in love with Liuget or Taylor? I could see them as an easy trading partner if someone wanted to move up to 11th pick. Too high for who they want and they may be flexible to moving back for cheaper than normal if they are giving their guy a high first round grade but can have him later in the round. (Doesnt mean they are giving the pick away either.)

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Von Miller could help the Pats. Question is the pace at which his stock is rising puts him out of Pats reach barring a sudden change in winds between now and April draft time. Then, again there is plenty of time for things to go right for the Pats. Remember, Wilfork fell into their laps six years ago in the twenties (round 1).

 

[alvinnf]

The defense that won the SB last night played most of the night with 2 down lineman. We are entering into the era of the sub package. Eric Moore and Arrington both played End last year. Could we use Von Miller? Who knows......

 

[Shelterdog]

Von Miller could help the Pats. Question is the pace at which his stock is rising puts him out of Pats reach barring a sudden change in winds between now and April draft time. Then, again there is plenty of time for things to go right for the Pats. Remember, Wilfork fell into their laps six years ago in the twenties (round 1).

I don't think anyone disputes whether he could help the Pats: at a bare minimum he does everything Dane Fletcher did but better, and we can all be pretty confident that BB would find something for him to do.

The question is whether you're getting good value by trying to get a top 5 or 6 type pick who doesn't fit your base, particularly when there are other players (Ayers/Houston/Kerrigan/Smith) who may fit the base very well.

 

[upstater1]

The defense that won the SB last night played most of the night with 2 down lineman. We are entering into the era of the sub package. Eric Moore and Arrington both played End last year. Could we use Von Miller? Who knows......

That's what happens when you're up 21-3. The Steelers ran out of time after the Mendenhall fumble, but they almost won that game by running it. Would have been the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history.