Ravens @ Patriots AFCCG

[Amazon4]

I think protecting the ball is going to be huge, too. Not that it's never not a priority. But watching yesterday's game, it was impressive the number of times the defenders were trying to strip the ball each time they wrapped up the runner or receiver.

 

[Mack Herron]

Most likely- I think this is the one time we go away from the run game, because that's what the Ravens want, they want a lot of interior action where there's not much running involved.

I think that whatever we offer in the way of run game will be token, just to mix things up.

Except the reverse to Underwood I have been waiting for. Gotta test the perimeter.

 

[RobertWeathers]

On the road is where Cam Cameron's play-calling is at it's worst. If he can wisen up for 1 game and attempt to be a little creative on offense for a change that would be great. Lee Evans getting more than 1 pass thrown his way would do wonders against a defense that will probably be focused on Torrey Smith beating them deep.

They will focus on Ray Rice, Ray Rice and Ray Rice again. They will also put more attention on Moldin than Smith. The key is to cut down BALs time of possession. Smith has a 53% catch rate. Boldin is 54%. The key is to force BALs WR & Flacco to beat the Pats. Not sure they can...

The Ravens D can contain the New England offense, they always do. But can only hold them for so long, so offense must put points up. No idea how to stop Gronk & Hernandez, but they need to beat down Welker on at the line

I would agree that TB has had his share of problems with BAL's D. I think there are some circumstances involved though...

04 was a muddy, sloppy game. Pats had 24 points
07 was in BAL and the Pats still had 27 points and 326yds offense
09 reg season had 27 points again
09 playoffs no WW and no answers.
10 23 points 267yds passing

So all said, in the Brady/BB era, Pats have averaged 23ppg vs BAL

I think that is BALs number. Allow more and they lose. Allow less and they win.

If they allow 23 points in Foxboro it'll be the best defensive performance of the playoffs and perhaps all year.

This year, BAL is 4-3 when their D allows more than 200yds passing.

Something's gotta give.

 

[everlong]

On offense, I expect to see a lot of wide formations and split-outs (don't be surprised to see Gronk and Hernandez split out wide) that end in horizontal stretch plays to outrun the ancient backers that Baltimore has (not just Ray Lewis). This will spread the defense and force them to declare early and often, as well as forcing them to play in the open, something they're not fond of doing.

I think you're spot on. I also wouldn't mind if they ran out of that formation where Gronk starts out wide and then comes in motion and picks off Lewis while the pulling guard finishes off the seam. The key is the tackle also being able to seal Ngata or the other ends. I think Mankins and Waters can both get out in space and do damage.

 

[Ivan]

I think this is a much better offense than the one Baltimore faced in 09'. Starting up front I like the OL with the additions of Solder and Waters over the OL they started in 09, and the additions of Gronkowski and Hernandez as well as the presence of Welker makes this a much more difficult and varied passing game than the one that was Moss based in 09', and although they won't run 30 times I believe that this group of RB's is a much better group than the one they brought in 09'. If the defense plays even a decent game on Sunday I think the offense will put up more than enough to come away with the win. I'm feeling good about this game.

They need to run the ball at least 20 times to keep the offense balanced and show the Ravens they are willing to mix it up with them physically.

 

[goheels22002]

Most likely- I think this is the one time we go away from the run game, because that's what the Ravens want, they want a lot of interior action where there's not much running involved.

I think that whatever we offer in the way of run game will be token, just to mix things up.

My guess is that there will be greater emphasis on the running game. Yesterday, Arian Foster owned the Ravens. The run blocking was excellent and once he got to the second level he picked up serious yardage - he had 95 yards by halftime.

The Patriots have a terrific mix of styles and sizes with BJGE, Ridley, Woodhead and Hernandez coming out of the backfield. It worked against Denver. Balance in play calling keeps the blitz at bay.

 

[Ivan]

The inclusion of Hernandez in the run game is a beautiful wrinkle for this week's game and i'm guessing will cause some serious problems for the ravens to consider in defending him. This could lead to some serious mismatches with LB's trying to cover him out of the backfield and could open up the underneath more for Welker and Gronkowski as LB's have to go with Hernandez to make sure he isn't left alone coming out of the backfield.

 

[Patspsycho]

My guess is that there will be greater emphasis on the running game. Yesterday, Arian Foster owned the Ravens. The run blocking was excellent and once he got to the second level he picked up serious yardage - he had 95 yards by halftime.

The Patriots have a terrific mix of styles and sizes with BJGE, Ridley, Woodhead and Hernandez coming out of the backfield. It worked against Denver. Balance in play calling keeps the blitz at bay.

Who knows.. you may be right. Personally I'd rather see the Ravens have to run all over the field. Two of their best playmakers on D, Lewis and Reed are not only long in the tooth but they're banged up so I would rather try to gas them right off the bat with a no-huddle, hurry up spread using flood concept out of spread 2 x 2 and trip because there's a lot of horizontal routes in the flood concept.

The spread formations are just as effective in checking the blitz as much as the run game. If we go run heavy, we'll have to go with a compressed formation and in my opinion that just plays right up the Ravens alley.

 

[Uncle Rico]

My guess is that there will be greater emphasis on the running game. Yesterday, Arian Foster owned the Ravens. The run blocking was excellent and once he got to the second level he picked up serious yardage - he had 95 yards by halftime.

The Patriots have a terrific mix of styles and sizes with BJGE, Ridley, Woodhead and Hernandez coming out of the backfield. It worked against Denver. Balance in play calling keeps the blitz at bay.

This reminds me of a passage in the Jim Bouton classic "Ball Four." Says he was in a meeting talking about how to pitch to a certain batter, and someone says, "Well Koufax got him with a curve ball." Everyone laughed because, well, Koufax's curve was pretty above average.

That said, I do think the Pats will be selective will look for opportunities to take advantage of the mix they have available and get some good runs.

 

[TriplecHamp]

maybe the people in Boston need to pop in a tape from the 2009 playoffs and see how a team with a rookie QB playing in his first playoff game ever on the road did against their beloved Marcia....the bottom to me is this-- the 2011 Raves are better that the 2008 Ravens that handed the Patriots their lunch and the 2011 Patriots are not as good as the 2009 Patriots...I like the Ravens chances this weekend because they have been tested and prevailed....winning in NE is far easier than winning in Pitts and Ravens haven't lost in Pittsburgh since the 2009 season....

this weekend's game showed that defense still wins championships, not high powered offenses....right Packers and Saints fans?


anyone who thinks the AFCN is a weak division is kidding themselves....

 

[mosi]

Ray Rice is Baltimore's leading rusher AND receiver, so we'll be sure that BB will scheme to shut him down and put the pressure on Flacco to move the chains. Rice is small, fast, and shifty so I wouldn't be surprised to see Chung involved in the box more often than not.

On offense, I expect to see a lot of wide formations and split-outs (don't be surprised to see Gronk and Hernandez split out wide) that end in horizontal stretch plays to outrun the ancient backers that Baltimore has (not just Ray Lewis). This will spread the defense and force them to declare early and often, as well as forcing them to play in the open, something they're not fond of doing.

Everything and I mean everything for Baltimore runs through Rice. Stop him and you will win the game. In many ways, this game is similar to the Denver game. Score early and often and force Flacco to beat you. Just the way San Diego did last month.

 

[coolguy]

The ravens could win if they play lights outs and brady and the defense doesn't.

All the pats can hope for is a masterful performance by brady and bill on defense. I could see the game being close or a blowout for both teams.

 

[RichardHead]

Anyone who thinks the 2009 Patriots team that lost to the Ravens is better than the 2011 Patriots team about to play in the AFCCG is delusional. I have 3 words...Gronkowski, Hernandez, Welker. None of those 3 played in that game, so that alone makes them a better team. And another point about great defences winning this past weekend, don't use SF as a great defense, they got torched, it's just that their offense was also doing some torching. So I'll take the teams with the best offense, and right now of the 4 teams left, the Ravens and Flacco are by far the worst offense.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The ravens could win if they play lights outs and brady and the defense doesn't.

All the pats can hope for is a masterful performance by brady and bill on defense. I could see the game being close or a blowout for both teams.

If the OL can keep the pass rush off of Brady, then the Patriots will win. OTOH, even if the pass rush is able to get to Brady, I still think that there's a chance, albeit not a great one, that the Pats might be able to win a slugfest simply because Rice is the only player on the Ravens' offense who scares me at all.

 

[BaltimorePatsFan]

The Pats offense won't be able to score like it did against DEN/BUF/MIA. Brady will be under constant pressure and the Pats D will need to step up in order for the Pats to win.

Suggs is going to dominate Light, as usual, with Kruger coming off the other side on passing downs, and the Pats interior o-linemen will have their hands full against Pernell McPhee, Cory Redding, and Haloti Ngata.

 

[mgcolby]

Solid analysis...... I haven't watched the Ravens much this year, but when I watched the game yesturday, I was struck by two VERY important things.

1) Flacco is not very good at all. I've heard that that's been the knock on him this year. I wouldn't call him Tebow exactly, but I certainly would put him in the Sanchez category. We all know that you can get very far with a great defense and a mediocre QB....... but you probably can't get to the big show. (i.e. Jets the last 2 years).

I think that that is a fundamental flaw with the Ravens this year. They have a defense that is probably good enough to min MOST games, but they don't have one that can win the BIGGEST game when it has to. You almost ALWAYS need that to make it to, and to win the Super Bowl (just look at the recent winners).

2) Baltimore's defense........... reminds me of our defense in 2006-2007.... Very good and made up of smart, crafty and experienced players. But with that comes AGE..... They look old and slow. Not sure that they can hang physically if we go hurry-up on them for sustained periods. They are good, but they are old. If the game is close in the 4th period...... look for a reverse 2006 AFCCG game. Brady will do to them, what Manning did to our old, tired defense.

This is actually not the case. Lewis and Reed are old. Johnson and Redding are in their early 30's. But the rest of the defense is young. Cody, Ngata, McClain, Pollard, Webb and Williams. The problem is McClain is slow and honestly not very good. He looks lost in the pass game when they decide not to blitz him. Johnson looks like he is slowing a bit. Ngata hasn't been playing up to his standards. Williams is one of the worst starting CB's in the league.

Cody is a good young DL. Redding is a serviceable DE. Webb is a very good young CB. Pollard is a solid safety and obviously Suggs is a beast. There are holes in that defense that can be exploited. However, you have to do it while keeping the likes of Cody, Ngata and Suggs off of your QB.

 

[Bmore2012]

As a Ravens fan I just want to say I am looking forward to a great game with one of the most classiest team and organizations around including fanbase.

One thing is for sure whoever wins the game will earn it and will need the week off to rest up after the hard physical game that will take place

I am not one to bash any team or organization I just don't see the sportsmanship in it.

 

[Deus Irae]

As a Ravens fan I just want to say I am looking forward to a great game with one of the most classiest team and organizations around including fanbase.

One thing is for sure whoever wins the game will earn it and will need the week off to rest up after the hard physical game that will take place

I am not one to bash any team or organization I just don't see the sportsmanship in it.

I'm hoping for a well-played game with no injuries. May the better team (that day) win.

 

[ATippett56]

The Baltimore Ravens are a Dr Jekyll - Mr Hyde team. The Baltimore Ravens were 8-0 at home versus 4-4 on the road with losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, San Diego.

Three keys to the Patriots - Ravens game:

1) Turnovers

2) Patriots offensive line versus Ravens defensive line

3) Patriots defensive front seven versus Ravens Ray Rice

 

[Metaphors]

The Pats offense won't be able to score like it did against DEN/BUF/MIA. Brady will be under constant pressure and the Pats D will need to step up in order for the Pats to win.

Suggs is going to dominate Light, as usual, with Kruger coming off the other side on passing downs, and the Pats interior o-linemen will have their hands full against Pernell McPhee, Cory Redding, and Haloti Ngata.

Have to look at who is left in that scenario. You have Lewis, McClain, Williams, Webb, Reed and Pollard (likely in zone) to take care of Branch, Welker, Gronk and Hernandez. If the 5 OL plus RB can give Brady a clean pocket for 2 seconds, Brady will find the right matchup and give the receiver room to get YAC. The situation against the Steelers was different in that they played everyone up in press man. I doubt the Ravens will go that route.

The key in your state is "on passing downs". If the Pats are facing 3rd and 7+ the whole game, your scenario will play out and the game will likely not have an optimal ending. Staying in manageable down/distance is key in that it doesn't allow the Ravens to tear upfield without risking a draw or screen going right by them.