Ranking Branch

[PonyExpress]

I hate when people with an axe to grind hijack a really good thread.

Branch is simply not an elite #1 WR. Those are freaky talents who can dominate a game and even defeat double and triple team attempts, perhaps not every time but often enough to have a fairly consistent impact. Some of them may come with attitudes or baggage that fans understand would not be a good fit here. But they are still individually more productive and valuable players than Deion. I don't think BB particularly wants an elite WR on this team. Doesn't need it with Brady and absolutely doesn't want to pay for it. He wants what Deion is - or frankly just a tad more, but that is also all he intends to pay him as. Those guys make between $4-6M, $6-7M is borderline or arguably elite and over $7-8M is cream of the elite crop.

I'm sure Belioli has a list much like Miguels that they have faxed at least a summation of including contract details and status (highlighting comparables) to Deion's representation. That is why most players have agents, to absorb that kind of frank assessment in the negotiation process. And while Miguel discounted players whose age would seem to hint at lessening production going forward, BB may not have been so charitable. If the 33 year old out produces you now he still deserves to be compensated accordingly in the present time. And if some team doesn't want to do that next year BB may hire one of those old foggies to replace young Deion. He went after Mason last year and he's no spring chicken. Felger had an analysis he was working off of earlier this week and it ranked Deion 16th by production among all receivers (including a few TE's Graham can't compete with either).

If an argument can be made that your production may increase dramatically then incentives can be the compromise provided the team wants to pay in that range at all. And if in the reverse the player wants to argue that the system is limiting his production and he deserves to be paid for what he could do if not limited by the system, BB would probably haul out the film of the drops and miscues first and suggest that ample opportunities existed with the system that were not taken advantage of by the player.

Bottom line is Belioli isn't going to overcompensate Deion Branch to keep him here just because he is currently the #1 WR here. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that someone already on the roster can replace Deion by 2007 or that a 2007 FA could be signed to replace him less expensively. And that scenario could easily also be postponed until 2008 via use of the franchise tag. Nobody is going to swap two first rounders for Deion. Although if he finally has a 1,000+ yard season in 2006 somebody might swap a late first or early second rounder for an established WR who wants top dollar. Of course if Deion has a monster season here we might reward him accordingly, but it sounds like he's looking to be compensated NOW but based on his perception of his future value.

I hope they get a deal worked out, but I'm not shaking in my shoes at the prospect of replacing Deion rather than overpaying him. The potential ramifications of replacing a HOF PK with a rookie or retread concerns me a whole lot more than replacing middle of the pack #1 WR. Although I'm not going to boo anybody who helped bring me a Lombardi or three over it.

This was a free flowing thread and we just ran with it. Let's not be too strict here.

 

[spacecrime]

If you remember, Dewey was always greeted with what sounded like deafening boos, because of his name, similar to Youk for Youkilis. That's where I was going with that...

Oh, jeez, what a moron I am. I knew that.

 

[spacecrime]

Miguel's analysis says up to 20 teams think he's better than what they've got. So the options if you want to keep him from those 20 teams are sign him or franchise him.

What? You think every team tries to sign every free agent that is better than a player they have?

Why isn't Ty Law signed?

Trust me, there will not be a bidding war among 20 teams looking to sign Deion.

But my point was that franchising Branch was ridiculous. That would mean paying him the average of the top five WRs in the league. He is not a top five, or even a top ten.

 

[arrellbee]

There is an inescapable factor when it comes to the Patriots decision on whether they will 'overpay' for Branch. The receiver corps is getting REALLY thin in depth. If you delete Branch, you have
Chad Jackson - unproven yet altho he may be a #2 or perhaps even a #1 next year
Reche Caldwell - who knows
Troy Brown - does he have another year past 2006 ? And he's a #3 in best case
Bam Childress ?? ??
Who knows if they can re-sign Patten - but he's a low #2 anyway.

And that's it folks.

Maybe BB/SP pull a free-agent rabbit out of the hat if they don't re-sign Branch. But with free agent money available again next year, that's perhaps a real long shot.

Even a first round drafted receiver next year probably doesn't give you a strong enough #1 and #2 in his first season.

So do they pay another receiver more than he's worth or do they pay Branch more than he's 'worth' when he and Brady have such an amount of experience together.

And knock on wood that Jackson and /or Caldwell don't go down with injuries.

Branch may have the Patriots over a big fat barrel if he and his agent don't blink. Sure looks that way.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Branch may have the Patriots over a big fat barrel if he and his agent don't blink. Sure looks that way.

I love Branch and appreciate what he's done for this team, especially in the playoffs. That said, the I don't see the Pats giving a WR a $12mil SB. IMO, the Pats will offer a 5-6 year deal that's a 3-yr deal in disguise, with a SB of about $8mil (more than Givens) that include hidden roster bonues that, assuming Branch remains healthy and productive, will be converted to a SB that would be part of an extention that would result in Branch getting paid more than Wayne or Randle El in their contracts.

JMHO

 

[Pats726]

I love Branch and appreciate what he's done for this team, especially in the playoffs. That said, the I don't see the Pats giving a WR a $12mil SB. IMO, the Pats will offer a 5-6 year deal that's a 3-yr deal in disguise, with a SB of about $8mil (more than Givens) that include hidden roster bonues that, assuming Branch remains healthy and productive, will be converted to a SB that would be part of an extention that would result in Branch getting paid more than Wayne or Randle El in their contracts.

JMHO

Might be the case...but I agree he is NOT top 10 at all...He's not that freakish kind of receiver.. so what does a team do???

 

[Pats726]

There is not a column for 2008-2010. I did not take it that far.

Miguel.....Great chart!!! What would you do if you were in the Pats FO...Knowing that Branch seems to want a lot of money and yet is NOT a top 10 receiver..does one try to sign long term now?? Wait and try next year (as 20 other teams try to court him) or franchise him.

 

[Miguel]

Miguel.....Great chart!!! What would you do if you were in the Pats FO...Knowing that Branch seems to want a lot of money and yet is NOT a top 10 receiver..does one try to sign long term now?? Wait and try next year (as 20 other teams try to court him) or franchise him.

I make him an offer that would put him among the Top 15 receivers in the game with incentives that would boost his contract to among the Top 10 if he plays like one. I can not see the Pats giving Branch a $12 million signing bonus. Reggie Wayne got a $12.5 million signing bonus and had 2 1000 yards before getting that contract. I think that Branch will get at best a $9 million signing bonus from the Pats. And he may have to lower his salary this year meaning that he will actually get less than $9 million in new money this year.

Elite receivers like a Randy Moss, Owens, or a Steve Smith have put big numbers without having a decent #2 receiver. Branch has yet to do so. Givens has missed 11 regular season games in his career. Branch never had a 100-yard game in any of them. Branch himself admitted this year that he has been taken out of games. I think that teams are going to emulate the Chargers this year and force Caldwell and Jackson to step up.

IMO, Branch is risking at least two things.
1.) He can show that he is an elite receiver this year.
2.) that he is healthy at the end of the year.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

:agree:

He gets a little more than Givens got and a little less than Ward got. And he gets incentives that can earn him a little more than Ward got. If he rolls the dice I doubt he gets much more than that anyway unless he has a monster year, and another risk he takes is that either due to an injury or system circumstance one of Jackson or Caldwell equals or surpasses him production wise and his value drops in the interim to just another nice #2 period.

 

[bucky]

My point is to show why I do not think that Branch is a Top 10 receiver.

OK. But you're actually showing that he's not one of the top 19 receivers. And with 7 "maybes" you're putting him in the 22-25 range.

I would argue that as far as the Patriots' needs and scheme are concerned and Brady's chemistry with Branch, he's a top 12-15 WR.

Now, let's look at the WRs on your list, almost half the "yeses and maybes" are still on their rookie contracts. What that tells me is that salary-wise, Branch probably deserves to be in the top 10. By the time guys like Andre Johnson and Boldin sign their next contracts, Branch won't be in the top 10 any more. So, if he signs an extension before this year, it's reasonable to expect a discount. But if he doesn't, he's certainly deserving of transition-player money next year.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

There is an inescapable factor when it comes to the Patriots decision on whether they will 'overpay' for Branch. The receiver corps is getting REALLY thin in depth. If you delete Branch, you have
Chad Jackson - unproven yet altho he may be a #2 or perhaps even a #1 next year
Reche Caldwell - who knows
Troy Brown - does he have another year past 2006 ? And he's a #3 in best case
Bam Childress ?? ??
Who knows if they can re-sign Patten - but he's a low #2 anyway.

And that's it folks.

Maybe BB/SP pull a free-agent rabbit out of the hat if they don't re-sign Branch. But with free agent money available again next year, that's perhaps a real long shot.

Even a first round drafted receiver next year probably doesn't give you a strong enough #1 and #2 in his first season.

So do they pay another receiver more than he's worth or do they pay Branch more than he's 'worth' when he and Brady have such an amount of experience together.

And knock on wood that Jackson and /or Caldwell don't go down with injuries.

Branch may have the Patriots over a big fat barrel if he and his agent don't blink. Sure looks that way.

This is hysteria talking IMHO.

Why would you delete Branch when he is under contract and can be franchised next season (which would result in a 2 year average cost of under $4M for 2006-2007)?

FA money only goes up about $7M next year, closer to the $4-5M it has been going up and nowhere near the $17M it went up this season. The problem with signing FA's this year wasn't competing financially so much as it was just a down year talent wise that resulted in our #2 becoming a desperate teams #1.

If you don't overpay Branch why would that lead to overpaying someone someone to replace him?

If a WR goes down this year it will be a problem but overpaying Branch does nothing to change that. We aren't very deep, but that is a seperate discussion for another thread.

Deion doesn't have the Patriots over a barrel. He's not established enough for what he wants to receive and cannot survive a holdout. I blame this on Richard - misleading by example. He could have survived a holdout financially and from a talent value perception standpoint (multiple pro bowl DE). Few of his impressionable young teamates are in anywhere near that position. If Deion were to hold out he just tags himself as another problem child WR and likely severely diminishes his value on the open market as a result. He might then force the team to do something in TC it would have preferred not to do like trade excess talent elsewhere for a fill in WR, but that is more doable than it used to be under the new CBA too.

All in all I think this is much ado about nothing. Deion is in his contract season. If he chooses to screw that up then perhaps he isn't as smart as we need our #1 WR to be.

 

[ilduce06410]

branch's worth more here, now, than anywhere else

I make him an offer that would put him among the Top 15 receivers in the game with incentives that would boost his contract to among the Top 10 if he plays like one. I can not see the Pats giving Branch a $12 million signing bonus. Reggie Wayne got a $12.5 million signing bonus and had 2 1000 yards before getting that contract. I think that Branch will get at best a $9 million signing bonus from the Pats. And he may have to lower his salary this year meaning that he will actually get less than $9 million in new money this year.
Elite receivers like a Randy Moss, Owens, or a Steve Smith have put big numbers without having a decent #2 receiver. Branch has yet to do so. Givens has missed 11 regular season games in his career. Branch never had a 100-yard game in any of them. Branch himself admitted this year that he has been taken out of games. I think that teams are going to emulate the Chargers this year and force Caldwell and Jackson to step up.
IMO, Branch is risking at least two things.
1.) He can show that he is an elite receiver this year.
2.) that he is healthy at the end of the year.

miguel, i did some math on your chart of branch's relative placement among the cohort of #1 and #2 WRs, and it came out with branch just into the top third of NFL WRs. standing alone on his own attributes as a WR, i think that's about right. he should get what excellent WRs gets. IMO slot him at #15-to #20 highest paid.
i don't think the twig is going to be that big of a signing hassle. i dunno who's said he wants $5m a year, or a $12m signing bonus. IMO he's a humble young man who REALLY enjoys playing with brady.
brady/twig have worked out together for 4 years. in offseason and in TC, he's thrown thousands of passes to branch. THEY KNOW EACH OTHER. on 3rd and 6, a quick out is getting to be like stealing. they know exactly where the ball and the WR will be, and the little variations too. branch is worth much more to patriots because he has thet relationship with brady.
he goes somewhere else, he's a tiny WR with good hands, quickness, and an excellent run after the catch. he doesn't block well and he's not a dominant WR. here he's brady's #1 target. he gets into situations where he runs wild after the catch. focus on givens or watson and the twig will kill you.
worth more here than he is anywhere else.

 

[Pats726]

I make him an offer that would put him among the Top 15 receivers in the game with incentives that would boost his contract to among the Top 10 if he plays like one. I can not see the Pats giving Branch a $12 million signing bonus. Reggie Wayne got a $12.5 million signing bonus and had 2 1000 yards before getting that contract. I think that Branch will get at best a $9 million signing bonus from the Pats. And he may have to lower his salary this year meaning that he will actually get less than $9 million in new money this year.
IMO, Branch is risking at least two things.
1.) He can show that he is an elite receiver this year.
2.) that he is healthy at the end of the year.

Miguel...I totally agree..top 15 receivers..with incentives..The team should NOT pay him top receiver money..he's basically not...(at least at this point) and there is also the fact he's missed a lot of games. Great points!! I just hope he understands that heis risking a lot..and may sign early to a fair contract..

 

[Miguel]

Miguel,
Reviewing the players on your list that may be better than Branch over the next 4 years...

I appreciate your feedback.

 

[Miguel]

OK. But you're actually showing that he's not one of the top 19 receivers. And with 7 "maybes" you're putting him in the 22-25 range.

I would argue that as far as the Patriots' needs and scheme are concerned and Brady's chemistry with Branch, he's a top 12-15 WR.

Now, let's look at the WRs on your list, almost half the "yeses and maybes" are still on their rookie contracts. What that tells me is that salary-wise, Branch probably deserves to be in the top 10.

The players who are still on the rookie contracts are either high draft picks (Fitzgerald #3, Andre Johnson#3, Edwards,#3 pick, Roy Williams #7) with large contracts or Lee Evans whose 6-year contract can void to 5 years. In other words, Evans (a a maybe) is signed through the 2008 season.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

i don't think the twig is going to be that big of a signing hassle. i dunno who's said he wants $5m a year, or a $12m signing bonus. IMO he's a humble young man who REALLY enjoys playing with brady.
brady/twig have worked out together for 4 years.

branch is worth much more to patriots because he has thet relationship with brady.
he goes somewhere else, he's a tiny WR with good hands, quickness, and an excellent run after the catch. he doesn't block well and he's not a dominant WR. here he's brady's #1 target. he gets into situations where he runs wild after the catch. focus on givens or watson and the twig will kill you.
worth more here than he is anywhere else.

Brady and the twig aren't working out together in his 5th year in case you haven't heard. Deion has been conspicuously absent from the off season program and the voluntary passing camp last week which he has been in attendance for over the last 4 years. That is being reasonably interpreted as a method he has chosen to vent his concern or displeasure regarding his present contract status and/or the lack of concrete progress in negotiating a new deal. It is the format Seymour chose to unveil last season. Next week the first mandatory camp is scheduled and whether he participates or not will likely indicate whether his displeasure is deep enough to warrant all the concern it has thus far generated among fans.

Deion is certainly worth more to us because of chemistry and his ability to run precise routes and handle pre and post snap reads in this offense. But his struggles to emerge in games where he does not have a Givens (and there will be at least 16 of those this season) is a mitigating factor when deciding just what his value here translates into contract wise. Sources reportedly close to him have indicated he wants at least $12M in guarantees in a new deal. That is just shy of what Reggie Wayne got from the Colts on a deal that averages $6.5M per year and considerably more than Givens got from the Titans on a deal that averages just a hair under $5M per.

Worth more here than anywhere else can be handled via incentives as they would likely also be in any FA contract he might sign with a GM with half a brain. Of course there are a few GM's every FA season who don't exhibit half a brain, and that is often what agents tell their clients to count on. BB recently responded to a question about contracts by saying he is not responsible for what other GM's pay. I think that was BB-speak for he is not responsible for what other GM's overpay.

 

[bucky]

The players who are still on the rookie contracts are either high draft picks (Fitzgerald #3, Andre Johnson#3, Edwards,#3 pick, Roy Williams #7) with large contracts or Lee Evans whose 6-year contract can void to 5 years. In other words, Evans (a a maybe) is signed through the 2008 season.

I realize that. But I don't know what point you're trying to make.

The point I'm making is that when someone says "Branch isn't a top 10 WR, so he shouldn't be making top 10 money" doesn't realize that some of the top 10 WRs are still in their rookie contracts. So even if they're a top 3 pick, like Fitzgerlad, their salary has nothing to do with the market for WRs. It has to do with when they were drafted.

If you take the top 10 WRs who are NOT in their rookie contracts, Branch is pretty close. Also, let's look at the 10 WRs with the highers cap numbers in 2005:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2006-02-21-franchise-tag_x.htm

Isaac Bruce, St. L. $9,240,709;
Amani Toomer, N.Y. Giants $5,715,000;
Rod Smith, Den. $5,551,628;
Jimmy Smith, Jack. $5,274,333;
Eric Moulds, Buff. $5,078,431;
Joe Horn, N.O. $4,765,000;
Muhsin Muhammad, Chi. $4,615,000;
Roy Williams, Det. $3,845,000;
Keenan McCardell, S.D. $3,766,666;
Dennis Northcutt, Cle. $3,750,000

I'd say Branch compared favorably last year to more than half of those WRs.

 

[hwc]

My point is to show why I do not think that Branch is a Top 10 receiver.

I agree with that assessment. While all of us might quibble with a particular rating, I think it's fair to say that Branch is probably a mid-pack #1 receiver.

If Branch is willing to do a solid midpack #1 extension, the Pats would be smart to get it done.

However, if he is holding out for elite WR money and/or determined to hit free agency, then the Pats would be smarter to just let him play this year at his current below-market rate. That's very high value to the Pats for one more year and the player assumes all injury risk.

Next year, the Pats would have the option of franchising him. That would give them two years averaging below market rates or the ability to do a tag & trade and get a little something for him.

I wouldn't break the bank to pay him elite WR money. It's easy to replace a player if you are willing to pay top-of-the-market prices. In general, a team should only do that to keep a player if the player really is one of the top two or three players in the NFL at his position (Brady, Seymour, etc.) and, therefore, is not replaceable on the open market. Paying top dollar for mid-pack guys is classic cap mismanagement.

 

[hwc]

If you take the top 10 WRs who are NOT in their rookie contracts, Branch is pretty close. Also, let's look at the 10 WRs with the highers cap numbers in 2005:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2006-02-21-franchise-tag_x.htm

Isaac Bruce, St. L. $9,240,709;
Amani Toomer, N.Y. Giants $5,715,000;
Rod Smith, Den. $5,551,628;
Jimmy Smith, Jack. $5,274,333;
Eric Moulds, Buff. $5,078,431;
Joe Horn, N.O. $4,765,000;
Muhsin Muhammad, Chi. $4,615,000;
Roy Williams, Det. $3,845,000;
Keenan McCardell, S.D. $3,766,666;
Dennis Northcutt, Cle. $3,750,000

I'd say Branch compared favorably last year to more than half of those WRs.

I don't see too many SuperBowl contenders on that list. Maybe overpaying mid-pack players is a reason?

 

[spacecrime]

The point I'm making is that when someone says "Branch isn't a top 10 WR, so he shouldn't be making top 10 money" doesn't realize that some of the top 10 WRs are still in their rookie contracts. So even if they're a top 3 pick, like Fitzgerlad, their salary has nothing to do with the market for WRs. It has to do with when they were drafted.

Yeah, but so what? Lots of WR's aren't in the top ten (every single one of them excpet for ten, in fact).

So why should the contracts of these players who are not in the top ten be affected by the draft status of Arizona's WRs, and whether or not Arizona extends their players early or late?

To say that Branch is not a top ten receiver, but should be paid this year what the equivalent of what a top ten WR will be paid several years from now just makes no sense at all.

In your statement, just change Branch's name with any other WR who is not a top ten WR:

The point I'm making is that when someone says "Bam Childress isn't a top 10 WR, so he shouldn't be making top 10 money" doesn't realize that some of the top 10 WRs are still in their rookie contracts.