Ranking Branch

[spacecrime]

(I hope fans don't boo Adam when he comes here in Nov.

Initially I thought I would, but I doubt I will now. I do hope he misses a kick, though, because I will cheer like crazy if he does.

Just think where this team would be if Vanderjerk had been kicking for us the last 5 years! No super bowl wins.

Venderjerk is a jerk, but give him his due. He is the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL. If we had him for the Panther superbowl, he might not have missed the two kicks during the game, thereby making the dramatic last-second kick unnecessary.

Whatever we say about Vinatieri and Vanderjack, one made the greatest kick in the history of the NFL, and the other has the best record in the history of the NFL.

 

[PonyExpress]

sorry to make my point about the $500K so vague. (Take the money and run). I was leading up to the ending by talking about people sometimes needing (and benefitting) from a change of scenery. Which is why I think Adam bolted over so little money difference. Yet many criticize him for taking the money. But in actually, if he really wanted to stay - he probably would have least called and asked the Pats if they wanted to match the offer (which he acknowledged he did not). His endorsements alone probably would have made up the difference anyway. I believe it will be the same with Branch if he becomes a FA. If he really wants to be here -he will be here. (I hope fans don't boo Adam when he comes here in Nov. Just think where this team would be if Vanderjerk had been kicking for us the last 5 years! No super bowl wins.

Do you boo your ex-wife when she shows up at the house with the guy she left you for, to take your kids for the week-end? Or do you applaud and thank her for all the wonderful times? Boo Adam, he brought it on himself. It's only football. If it hurts he can go home and cry in his millions.

 

[sarge]

Do you boo your ex-wife when she shows up at the house with the guy she left you for, to take your kids for the week-end? Or do you applaud and thank her for all the wonderful times? Boo Adam, he brought it on himself. It's only football. If it hurts he can go home and cry in his millions.

This might be the best post I have seen regarding why it is perfectly fine to boo him!

 

[AllabouttheVinces]

My point is to show why I do not think that Branch is a Top 10 receiver.

Miguel, interesting analysis. I won't debate your rankings, because I think it matters little whether you rank 19 receivers better than Branch (as you have done) or whether it's, say, only 13 better. What's interesting are the conclusions to be drawn from your study.

Conclusion #1: OK, let's say Branch is not in the Top 10. I say this is far less important than conclusion #2. I'll explain below.

Conclusion #2: You have ranked 13 teams that would be interested in Branch as a free agent, plus 7 maybes. That's as many as 20 of 32 teams that could enter the Branch sweepstakes in 2007. Wow!!! Beoli just can't let that happen.

Should Branch get Top 10 money, even if we all agree he doesn't rank in the Top 10? Yes! Let's say we transition tag him (average of the Top 10 WR salaries, which is $5.1M for 2006). Do you think he'd get an offer in excess of that? Givens did, so Branch definitely will. If 20 teams look at him as an upgrade, and the cap jumps again in 2007, there will be plenty of money out there, and someone will throw a ton of $$ at him, leaving the Pats to choose whether to match.

The cap room is there in 2006. Hopefully he is locked up before the season starts. Otherwise the options will be franchise tag ($6.2M for 2006), or he'll leave in free agency.

So based on Miguel's analysis, the choice for the Pats is whether to lock him up long term or franchise tag him. Given that players don't like to be tagged, and assuming that Branch truly likes playing here, Branch's best option should be to sign a multi-year deal. Let's hope that gets done.

 

[spacecrime]

Do you boo your ex-wife when she shows up at the house with the guy she left you for

Is your ex-wife coming back next November with her new husband to do for him in your house what she used to do for you?

 

[spacecrime]

So based on Miguel's analysis, the choice for the Pats is whether to lock him up long term or franchise tag him.

We must be reading a different analysis. Franchise Branch? Where in Miguel's analysis did it say Branch was one of the top 5 WRs?

 

[PonyExpress]

Is your ex-wife coming back next November with her new husband to do for him in your house what she used to do for you?

Exactly, my friend. Boo him like his name is Dewey Evans.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

boobirds

funny analogy about the ex-wife. But I think a more accurate analogy is a friend who used to work with you in a large company. He did good things for the company and you admired him /liked him. He went to work for a competing company as they offered him more money. Sure, you are sad & disapointed he left. But should you now no longer like him /admire him? Boo the team (COLTS, Finns, etc) but not the player -especially when he did so much for this team. Don't forget how we franchised him several times as well.

 

[PonyExpress]

funny analogy about the ex-wife. But I think a more accurate analogy is a friend who used to work with you in a large company. He did good things for the company and you admired him /liked him. He went to work for a competing company as they offered him more money. Sure, you are sad & disapointed he left. But should you now no longer like him /admire him? Boo the team (COLTS, Finns, etc) but not the player -especially when he did so much for this team. Don't forget how we franchised him several times as well.

The reason I disagree with your analogy (HEy! an analogy fight!) is that being a football fan is about love and passion for your team. Working in a company with someone is a dispassionate exprerience that may yield moments of casual friendship.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I see your point - we want our team to win at all costs. You are either with us or against us. But people also take into account the level of threat the other adversary poses. If Adam came back for a game wearing a LIONS uniform - I think most fans would cheer his name. Not much threat there. But coming back wearing a Colts, Fins, Raiders jearsy means TOTAL WAR to many. --Booooooo! YOU BUM! Benedict Arnold! I want to thank him for his contribution to his many fine years of service here with a cheer. But thats just me - who I am. I expect some to boo - but my idealist part hopes more people cheer. (Obviously for the opening introduction or his first kickoff -NOT when he kicks a field goal -I am not that generous).

 

[PonyExpress]

It's funny how our notions of "idealism" clash. In your idealistic world, fans stand and applaud Adam for his past contributions. In mine, Fans stand and boo him for his present and future betrayal. It's funny how things work like that!

 

[Flying Fungi]

Exactly, my friend. Boo him like his name is Dewey Evans.

...ouch...

 

[Flying Fungi]

You have ranked 13 teams that would be interested in Branch as a free agent, plus 7 maybes. That's as many as 20 of 32 teams that could enter the Branch sweepstakes in 2007. Wow!!! Beoli just can't let that happen.

Should Branch get Top 10 money, even if we all agree he doesn't rank in the Top 10? Yes! Let's say we transition tag him (average of the Top 10 WR salaries, which is $5.1M for 2006). Do you think he'd get an offer in excess of that? Givens did, so Branch definitely will. If 20 teams look at him as an upgrade, and the cap jumps again in 2007, there will be plenty of money out there, and someone will throw a ton of $$ at him, leaving the Pats to choose whether to match.

holy crap that's a lot of assumptions...

 

[PonyExpress]

A refrain I keep hearing is that Deion isn't a #1 because when he's double teamed he can't get open. How many receivers in the league can get open when they're double teamed? Randy Moss? I don't believe that's a valid argument. Steve Smith disappeared in the NFCCG when he was doubled (which Lovie Smith inexplicably neglected to do in the divisional game).

 

[spacecrime]

Exactly, my friend. Boo him like his name is Dewey Evans.

NEVER! I liked Dwight.

 

[Pats726]

It's funny how our notions of "idealism" clash. In your idealistic world, fans stand and applaud Adam for his past contributions. In my idealistic world, Fans stand and boo him for his present and future betrayal. It's funny how things work like that!

And in my ideal world, when he is first mentioned, the stadium gives him a standing ovation!!!!! (Thank you AdamV for what you did AS a Patriot!!) and after that when he kickks a field goal??? Boo him loudly (You left for the money to the "enemy" team)..best of both worlds and has a LARGER impact!!! He'll always remember the cheers..of what was, but he also will NOT forget the boos..and the difference between...

 

[PonyExpress]

NEVER! I liked Dwight.

If you remember, Dewey was always greeted with what sounded like deafening boos, because of his name, similar to Youk for Youkilis. That's where I was going with that...

 

[miDeuce]

A refrain I keep hearing is that Deion isn't a #1 because when he's double teamed he can't get open. How many receivers in the league can get open when they're double teamed? Randy Moss? I don't believe that's a valid argument. Steve Smith disappeared in the NFCCG when he was doubled (which Lovie Smith inexplicably neglected to do in the NFCCG).

Felger CANNOT talk about Branch without bringing this up. I also think it's BS, along with just about everything else he spouts. Moss, TO, that's about it for guys who can consistently make plays under that kind of coverage.

 

[AllabouttheVinces]

We must be reading a different analysis. Franchise Branch? Where in Miguel's analysis did it say Branch was one of the top 5 WRs?

The question is whether you want to keep him. If you don't care, let him go to free agency. But Miguel's analysis says up to 20 teams think he's better than what they've got. So the options if you want to keep him from those 20 teams are sign him or franchise him.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I hate when people with an axe to grind hijack a really good thread.

Branch is simply not an elite #1 WR. Those are freaky talents who can dominate a game and even defeat double and triple team attempts, perhaps not every time but often enough to have a fairly consistent impact. Some of them may come with attitudes or baggage that fans understand would not be a good fit here. But they are still individually more productive and valuable players than Deion. I don't think BB particularly wants an elite WR on this team. Doesn't need it with Brady and absolutely doesn't want to pay for it. He wants what Deion is - or frankly just a tad more, but that is also all he intends to pay him as. Those guys make between $4-6M, $6-7M is borderline or arguably elite and over $7-8M is cream of the elite crop.

I'm sure Belioli has a list much like Miguels that they have faxed at least a summation of including contract details and status (highlighting comparables) to Deion's representation. That is why most players have agents, to absorb that kind of frank assessment in the negotiation process. And while Miguel discounted players whose age would seem to hint at lessening production going forward, BB may not have been so charitable. If the 33 year old out produces you now he still deserves to be compensated accordingly in the present time. And if some team doesn't want to do that next year BB may hire one of those old foggies to replace young Deion. He went after Mason last year and he's no spring chicken. Felger had an analysis he was working off of earlier this week and it ranked Deion 16th by production among all receivers (including a few TE's Graham can't compete with either).

If an argument can be made that your production may increase dramatically then incentives can be the compromise provided the team wants to pay in that range at all. And if in the reverse the player wants to argue that the system is limiting his production and he deserves to be paid for what he could do if not limited by the system, BB would probably haul out the film of the drops and miscues first and suggest that ample opportunities existed with the system that were not taken advantage of by the player.

Bottom line is Belioli isn't going to overcompensate Deion Branch to keep him here just because he is currently the #1 WR here. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that someone already on the roster can replace Deion by 2007 or that a 2007 FA could be signed to replace him less expensively. And that scenario could easily also be postponed until 2008 via use of the franchise tag. Nobody is going to swap two first rounders for Deion. Although if he finally has a 1,000+ yard season in 2006 somebody might swap a late first or early second rounder for an established WR who wants top dollar. Of course if Deion has a monster season here we might reward him accordingly, but it sounds like he's looking to be compensated NOW but based on his perception of his future value.

I hope they get a deal worked out, but I'm not shaking in my shoes at the prospect of replacing Deion rather than overpaying him. The potential ramifications of replacing a HOF PK with a rookie or retread concerns me a whole lot more than replacing middle of the pack #1 WR. Although I'm not going to boo anybody who helped bring me a Lombardi or three over it.