Ranking Branch

[GoWesleyan]

What bucky is saying is that if you are trying to figure out what Branch is worth in his next contract, you have to look at WRs with BOTH similiar ability AND similar circumstances, i.e, they've played out their rookie contracts.

When you do that, you see that Branch is not number 19 or 20, but rather is closer to #10... so it follows that he deserves close to top ten money.

The players that are as good, or better, but who are still in their rookie contracts will get bigger money when their time comes. You should not use their extremely inexpensive salaries, or even their superior ability, as grounds for discounting Branch's worth- they don't enter the "comparables" equation since they have never entered the FA negotiation environment. The other guys have, and they are the ones that set the market price.

An aside: Isaac Bruce at 9 Million? Ouch.

 

[PonyExpress]

What bucky is saying is that if you are trying to figure out what Branch is worth in his next contract, you have to look at WRs with BOTH similiar ability AND similar circumstances, i.e, they've played out their rookie contracts.

When you do that, you see that Branch is not number 19 or 20, but rather is closer to #10... so it follows that he deserves close to top ten money.

The players that are as good, or better, but who are still in their rookie contracts will get bigger money when their time comes. You should not use their extremely inexpensive salaries, or even their superior ability, as grounds for discounting Branch's worth- they don't enter the "comparables" equation since they have never entered the FA negotiation environment. The other guys have, and they are the ones that set the market price.

An aside: Isaac Bruce at 9 Million? Ouch.

Bruce was released and his deal redone after the season. Those numbers aren't current...

 

[bucky]

Yeah, but so what? Lots of WR's aren't in the top ten (every single one of them excpet for ten, in fact).

So why should the contracts of these players who are not in the top ten be affected by the draft status of Arizona's WRs, and whether or not Arizona extends their players early or late?

To say that Branch is not a top ten receiver, but should be paid this year what the equivalent of what a top ten WR will be paid several years from now just makes no sense at all.

In your statement, just change Branch's name with any other WR who is not a top ten WR:

The point I'm making is that when someone says "Bam Childress isn't a top 10 WR, so he shouldn't be making top 10 money" doesn't realize that some of the top 10 WRs are still in their rookie contracts.

Thank you GoWesleyan. I must be really bad at phrasing what I'm thinking!

What bucky is saying is that if you are trying to figure out what Branch is worth in his next contract, you have to look at WRs with BOTH similiar ability AND similar circumstances, i.e, they've played out their rookie contracts.

When you do that, you see that Branch is not number 19 or 20, but rather is closer to #10... so it follows that he deserves close to top ten money.

The players that are as good, or better, but who are still in their rookie contracts will get bigger money when their time comes. You should not use their extremely inexpensive salaries, or even their superior ability, as grounds for discounting Branch's worth- they don't enter the "comparables" equation since they have never entered the FA negotiation environment. The other guys have, and they are the ones that set the market price.

 

[Miguel]

What bucky is saying is that if you are trying to figure out what Branch is worth in his next contract, you have to look at WRs with BOTH similiar ability AND similar circumstances, i.e, they've played out their rookie contracts.

Here are some of the top wideouts that match that description.
Holt
Harrison
Wayne
Owens
Steve Smith
Chad Johnson
Boldin
Santana Moss
Randy Moss
Darrell Jackson
Hines Ward
Derrick Mason
Houshmandzadeh
Burress
Chambers
Coles
Glenn


Here is my guess for the wideouts with the biggest APY contracts
Harrison
Owens
Wayne (6,326,667 APY)
Holt
Rod Smith
Bruce
Steve Smith
Chad Johnson
Andre Johnson
Mason
Ward
Darrell Jackson
Burress
Chambers
Glenn

To place the transition tag on a player is to give him a salary equal to the average of the Top 10 salary cap figures of the players at his position. To place the franchise tag on a player is to give him a salary equal to the average of the Top 10 salary cap figures of the players at his position. Is Branch a solid Top 10 wideout?? IMO, no. A solid 5 wideout?? IMHO, not even close.It is only by excluding players in their rookie contracts does Branch come close to making any Top 10 list. I do not think that in their negotiations with Branch that the Pats will exclude their personal ranking of Branch's ability as compared to Fitzgerald's or Andre Johnson's.

There are significant differences in the APY of a Top 5 wideout, Top 10 wideout, Top 15 wideouts. A $12 million signing bonus is usually indicative of a Top 5 status. IMO, Branch is not a Top 5 wideout or a Top 10 wideout.

IIRC, the best offer to Givens was a 5-year $17 million deal or $3.4 million a year. Paying Branch Top 10 money is close to saying that he is worth on the open market close to $3 million more per year than Givens.

 

[patfanken]

Guys we should agree on the following.... (because I think its the truth )

1. Deon Branch at about $1,25MM+/year is under paid

2. Deon Branch is not an elite receiver.

3. Deon Branch IS a very good receiver and the best one on the Pats roster.

4. The Pats are willing to greatly increase Branch's contract.

5. The Pats are unwilling to pay him as a top 10 WR.

6 Those people who are saying...."just pay him".... are unrealistic (there I'm trying to say it as nicely as possible). On a team like the Pats, you cannot possibly overpay a player of less than proven superstar talent at a key position. It would completely upset the entire salary structure. Fortunately Branch is neither a proven superstar, nor is he playing what the Pats perceive as a key position.

7.The fact remains, that regardless of what the Pats decide to do, Branch is sure to be there for at least 90% of training camp, and to do his best for 2006 season. We agree he is sure to be an effective (if healthy) WR this season, .

Those are the facts. here are some suppositions

1. The Pats may decide to redo his contract to give him an extra million this season to show good faith and increase his contract closer to his actual worth ala Richard Seymour. (especially if they have some spare cap room after training camp starts.

2. . He will likely reach FA in 2007, get overpaid by some team next year and he will most likely be ably replaced by someone else.

These are just my opinions for what they are worth.

1. Deon Branch is not a true #1 WR

2. He lacks the size and deep speed to be a threat unto himself

3. He doesn't have the size or speed to break a double team and can be taken out of a game by an elite CB one on one

4. His main assets are: His ability to come out of breaks at full speed & his ability to be at the right spot at the right time.

5. He is a liability in the running game

6. He gets very little after the catch yardage.

7. Don't underestimate the value of have one of the top 3 QB's in the league throwing to him. an what that means to his ultimat statistics

8. Four things that would keep me from paying too much to keep Deon Branch

a. His lack of TD catches
b. His lack of Yards after the Catch (YAC)
c. His size and injury potential
d. WR is the easiest position to fill wth like athletes in the NFL (unless your the EAGLES )

Based on the above, here is what I would do.

1. I'd give him an extra million this season, under the condition that the Pats would get a final shot before he signs in FA, and tell him to prove to me his a realy #1 WR this season and then let the market decide. This way I get a contented player this season, and let the chips fall where they may next season.

2. Assuming he has a decent year, I'd set a maximum value of $4-5MM/yr with a 2 year guarantee (straight or signing bonus), and if he's offered more than that,(which is probably likely), then I'd pat him on the back, wish him well, & let him go.

 

[bucky]

Whatever the case may be, there aren't too many legit #1 WRs hitting the market each year. I think it's reasonable to expect Branch to sign a contract this year that's slightly higher than the contracts signed by Boldin and Plaxico a year ago - about $26 mil over 6 years. That would probably be a slight discount to his open market value, but that's what happens to players who get a bump before their contract is up. If Branch improves even a little on his numbers from this year, I think he gets Reggie Wayne money on the open market next year. That's at least $1 mil/yr more.

 

[spacecrime]

What bucky is saying is that if you are trying to figure out what Branch is worth in his next contract, you have to look at WRs with BOTH similiar ability AND similar circumstances, i.e, they've played out their rookie contracts.

When you do that, you see that Branch is not number 19 or 20, but rather is closer to #10... so it follows that he deserves close to top ten money.

Well, this must be a carry over from the Tebucky thread because I still don't get it.

If Branch is the 19th best receiver, how does money eneter into it? No matter what everyone or anyone gets paid, he is still the 19th best WR, and he'll be the 19th best reciever if he pays for 1 mil or 10 mil.

What am I missing here?

 

[Remix 6]

hes definatley going to ask for a lot considering he was SB MVP..played huge in playoff games..

ex. the Denver game..8 catches 153 yards..the Steelers game a year ago..the SB itself

But i think he understands that Brady has helped tremendously..that the coaching here has been great..we treated him great..he hasnt played full season till last year.

Hes really fast in straightline speed...very very quick in short areas. BUT! he goes down easily..he even goes down himself so he doesnt need to take a hit because he is a "Fragile Branch". Chad Jackson on the other hand has a solid body..built..and speed like the best. i hope we resign Branch but i would not overpay him because theres better WRs out there definatley that are worth what he might ask for

 

[bucky]

Well, this must be a carry over from the Tebucky thread because I still don't get it.

If Branch is the 19th best receiver, how does money eneter into it? No matter what everyone or anyone gets paid, he is still the 19th best WR, and he'll be the 19th best reciever if he pays for 1 mil or 10 mil.

What am I missing here?

Even though he's the 19th best WR, when it comes time to put a market value on Branch, you should only compare him to the WRs who have received post-rookie contracts because those are the only true evaluations of a WR's market value. So, for example, Fitzgerald is the 10th best WR, but he will be making a lot less than Branch will get on the open market. Should that affect the Pats' offer? Will the Pats be able to get Fitzgerald for less than Branch? No and no, because when Fitzgerald hits the open market, he'll get more money than Branch.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Whatever the case may be, there aren't too many legit #1 WRs hitting the market each year. I think it's reasonable to expect Branch to sign a contract this year that's slightly higher than the contracts signed by Boldin and Plaxico a year ago - about $26 mil over 6 years. That would probably be a slight discount to his open market value, but that's what happens to players who get a bump before their contract is up. If Branch improves even a little on his numbers from this year, I think he gets Reggie Wayne money on the open market next year. That's at least $1 mil/yr more.

The two deals you cite are quite different. Burress' contract was for 6/$25 or just over $4M per as a FA. Boldin's deal was actually a 4 year extension tacked to his rookie deal to take him to 2010. That deal for 4/$23.5M had a two tiered $10M bonus and averages almost $6M per for the extension years. Each has missed time due to injury, but each also have put up multiple 1000 yard plus seasons without a HOF QB throwing to them. Burress did it on a run first franchise.

I think Deion is better than Plexiglass but not nearly as good as Boldin. Which would put him at $5M tops just looking at those two comparables. Reggie Wayne money is $6.5M.

 

[bucky]

The two deals you cite are quite different. Burress' contract was for 6/$25 or just over $4M per as a FA. Boldin's deal was actually a 4 year extension tacked to his rookie deal to take him to 2010. That deal for 4/$23.5M had a two tiered $10M bonus and averages almost $6M per for the extension years. Each has missed time due to injury, but each also have put up multiple 1000 yard plus seasons without a HOF QB throwing to them. Burress did it on a run first franchise.

I think Deion is better than Plexiglass but not nearly as good as Boldin. Which would put him at $5M tops just looking at those two comparables. Reggie Wayne money is $6.5M.

Boldin had 2 years left on his contract. His extension technically made the whole thing a 6 year $25M deal. Obviously he took a lesser than open market deal because he was 2 years away from hitting the open market. Deion isn't as good as Boldin, but is only 1 year away. So the deal I propose would be effective immediately and would wipe out the final year.

The other thing about all these deals you can't just judge them based on the "yearly average". Obviously, Boldin's contract had a lot more up front money than Plexiglass'.