Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Miguel, Jun 9, 2006.
Maybe its just me but all i get is a white page.
IT IS! THANKS!
Mine works but I'm unclear on the categories... there are 2 "#2 better?" columns, and I don't understand who they're better than - their own #1s, and then Branch? Or are they a repeat? If so, how come the "Yesses" don't add up the same? And is "interest" interest expressed by the Pats or the receiver?
Better than Branch. There are some #2s who I personnally rank higher than Branch who is a #1 on this team.
The interest column is my guess whether or not the team would be interested in signing Branch as a FA in 2007.
Miguel....can you clarify??? I know you said Harrison better than Branch..meaning a No..but is there a column for 08-10??? Just confused...interesting idea though...
Whoa! This is about a dozen hotly contested threads all wrapped into one!
I disagree with quite a number of your evaluations. I will say that a truely accurate comparison can sometimes be very difficult due to style and schematic differences. For example, Reggie Wayne might be a better WR for the Colts' offense, but Branch would be a better fit for a WCO style offense due to his superior RAC abilities. For the Patriots, I think I'd rather have Branch, but I can see how that can be debated. And that's just 1 example.
There is not a column for 2008-2010. I did not take it that far.
Recently I reviewed some career patterns among receivers to set an expectation on Branch. Some of the results were obvious, for instance that most WRs reach the height of their abilities and production years 4-6. An interesting aspect of Branch's career is that he has never averaged below 3 catches per game appearance, and has increased his per game production every year over 4 years. His only major injury was a freak occurrence on an INT return (Stephen Neal's tackle attempt) which he returned from in fine enough form to win SB MVP. My reasonable expectation of Branch over the next 4 years (his next contract), drawn from a time consuming review of other receivers, is 80-90 receptions, 1100-1300 yards, and 5-10 TDs per year. Combine that with his proven big game production, and to me 12 million guaranteed seems like a major bargain, especially with the cap increasing by 7s over the next few years and Chad Jackson locked into his rookie deal.
Also, I can't agree on taking Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Javon Walker, Braylon Edwards over Branch over the next 4 years. Owens and Harrison are 34, Walker is coming off an ACL tear into a new ground control offense with a QB change looming, and Edwards is a totally unproven commodity from a durability perspective, with an unproven QB in a ground control O with a questionable O-coordinator.
My point is to show why I do not think that Branch is a Top 10 receiver.
Point is definitely clear to me.
You left Caldwell in SD, perhaps that was Parker and the rank doesn't change anyways.
As a counterargument to paying Branch, you could say that Offense is really a luxury on a championship team and the defense wins Super Bowl titles born out by history (since '78). I wonder if the Pats might be considering Ed Reed next year. Just throwing it out there...
FWIW - Owens is 33. I happen to feel that he will be a lot better than Branch in the short-term that it will take Branch awhile to surpass Owens' numbers.
FWIW (Part 2) - I did not take Harrison over Branch over the next 5 years.
I like the effort and thought given to the table. But while one (me) could look at the table and make a simplistic guess that about half the teams might be interested in Branch - there are so many other factors. How long are the other WR's contracts and what are their cap hits? What is the overall cap shape of the other team? I don't mean to say that I actually want to know all that data. As we saw with Vinitari - it only takes one other interested team to snatch the 'cookie'. Furthermore, again with Vinitari - the Pats didn't seem to be far off the mark money-wise. It seemed Vinitari was ready and receptive for a change of venue. Actually, sometimes that is also a good thing for non-football players as well - get out of ones daily grind and get a change of scenery. Sorry - getting philosophical here. It is a given that if Branch hits the open market - he will get other offers and there will probably be some higher than the Pats. I think we fans are sometime hypocritical in that Vinitari was one of my favorites and I was upset he left. But if someother company flashed me an extra 500K , I (and my guess is about 80% of the fans) would also be gone in a heartbeat.
Yes, the ranking does not change anyway.
Reviewing the players on your list that may be better than Branch over the next 4 years...
1. Boldin: no argument
2. Fitzgerald: no argument
3. Steve Smith: no argument
4. C. Johnson: no argument based on skill, but considering he got into a fist fight with his coach at half time in a playoff game because he felt he wasn't getting the ball enough, is he a Patriot player?
5. Houshmanzadeh: no argument. an underrated great player.
6. Edwards: unproven durability in a ground control O with an unproven QB and an O-coordinator who endures heavy criticism.
7. TO: 33 years old, and not a Patriot player.
8. J. Walker: coming off ACL problems (how sharp will his cuts be?) into a ground control O with an unsteady QB situation.
9. R. Williams: more talent than Branch and MArtz is on board. But has laways shown inconcistent effort. Seems to be rounding into form this year so I give him the edge.
10. A. Johnson: Kubiak is going to run the ball this year; Moulds is on the other side; and Carr still has not shown himself to be top notch. If Carr fails this year, he will likely not be around next year. Then who will the QB be for Johnson? I still give him the edge, but only slightly because of the fluid situation in Houston.
11. R. Wayne: no argument
12. C. Chambers: I would take Branch over Chambers every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Drops the ball too much.
13. P. Burress. There is no way Plaxico is better than Branch. We have seen first hand in pittsburgh and again in NY how he shuts it down when the money's on the table.
14. R. Moss: no argument
15. J Porter: injury prone, poor work habits, lazy attitude. How long will Brooks be the QB? I take Branch.
16.H. Ward: no argument
17. D. Jackson: improved his hands last year but has a long and storied history of alligator arms. Branch is better.
18. T. Holt: no argument
19. S. Moss: no argument (my gut says Branch is better, but I'll give Moss the edge now)
So that makes Branch #13 in my book. Plenty good enough for $12 mil, if you value offense. Not to mention his big game performances and team first attitude. I think this is a no-brainer.
Got it. Interesting. Now...
Would you put a 4-year over/under number for Branch? (or 5, or whatever number of years you would project for him?)
I don't think so. I'll bet many would not.
Sure, if someone offered me $500,000 over my current income of about $35,000 yeah I'd be gone in a flash.
But if I was working someplace where I had been making 2.5 mil a year, and I liked it and the people, and they offered me 2.5 mil a year to stay, I would not leave because some other company offered me 3 mil a year.
I really think that most people, having made millions, would have enough money and that they would look at more money as a means to enjoy themselves.
Yes, some people measure happiness by $$$ accumulated (whoever dies with the biggest bank account wins). But many more I think would figure that they could be happy with either 2.5 mil a year or 3 mil a year, and would choose the place where they would be happiest (whoever dies with teh happiest memories wins).
sorry to make my point about the $500K so vague. (Take the money and run). I was leading up to the ending by talking about people sometimes needing (and benefitting) from a change of scenery. Which is why I think Adam bolted over so little money difference. Yet many criticize him for taking the money. But in actually, if he really wanted to stay - he probably would have least called and asked the Pats if they wanted to match the offer (which he acknowledged he did not). His endorsements alone probably would have made up the difference anyway. I believe it will be the same with Branch if he becomes a FA. If he really wants to be here -he will be here. (I hope fans don't boo Adam when he comes here in Nov. Just think where this team would be if Vanderjerk had been kicking for us the last 5 years! No super bowl wins.
Initially I thought I would, but I doubt I will now. I do hope he misses a kick, though, because I will cheer like crazy if he does.
Venderjerk is a jerk, but give him his due. He is the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL. If we had him for the Panther superbowl, he might not have missed the two kicks during the game, thereby making the dramatic last-second kick unnecessary.
Whatever we say about Vinatieri and Vanderjack, one made the greatest kick in the history of the NFL, and the other has the best record in the history of the NFL.
Do you boo your ex-wife when she shows up at the house with the guy she left you for, to take your kids for the week-end? Or do you applaud and thank her for all the wonderful times? Boo Adam, he brought it on himself. It's only football. If it hurts he can go home and cry in his millions.
This might be the best post I have seen regarding why it is perfectly fine to boo him!
Miguel, interesting analysis. I won't debate your rankings, because I think it matters little whether you rank 19 receivers better than Branch (as you have done) or whether it's, say, only 13 better. What's interesting are the conclusions to be drawn from your study.
Conclusion #1: OK, let's say Branch is not in the Top 10. I say this is far less important than conclusion #2. I'll explain below.
Conclusion #2: You have ranked 13 teams that would be interested in Branch as a free agent, plus 7 maybes. That's as many as 20 of 32 teams that could enter the Branch sweepstakes in 2007. Wow!!! Beoli just can't let that happen.
Should Branch get Top 10 money, even if we all agree he doesn't rank in the Top 10? Yes! Let's say we transition tag him (average of the Top 10 WR salaries, which is $5.1M for 2006). Do you think he'd get an offer in excess of that? Givens did, so Branch definitely will. If 20 teams look at him as an upgrade, and the cap jumps again in 2007, there will be plenty of money out there, and someone will throw a ton of $$ at him, leaving the Pats to choose whether to match.
The cap room is there in 2006. Hopefully he is locked up before the season starts. Otherwise the options will be franchise tag ($6.2M for 2006), or he'll leave in free agency.
So based on Miguel's analysis, the choice for the Pats is whether to lock him up long term or franchise tag him. Given that players don't like to be tagged, and assuming that Branch truly likes playing here, Branch's best option should be to sign a multi-year deal. Let's hope that gets done.
Is your ex-wife coming back next November with her new husband to do for him in your house what she used to do for you?
We must be reading a different analysis. Franchise Branch? Where in Miguel's analysis did it say Branch was one of the top 5 WRs?
Exactly, my friend. Boo him like his name is Dewey Evans.
funny analogy about the ex-wife. But I think a more accurate analogy is a friend who used to work with you in a large company. He did good things for the company and you admired him /liked him. He went to work for a competing company as they offered him more money. Sure, you are sad & disapointed he left. But should you now no longer like him /admire him? Boo the team (COLTS, Finns, etc) but not the player -especially when he did so much for this team. Don't forget how we franchised him several times as well.
The reason I disagree with your analogy (HEy! an analogy fight!) is that being a football fan is about love and passion for your team. Working in a company with someone is a dispassionate exprerience that may yield moments of casual friendship.
I see your point - we want our team to win at all costs. You are either with us or against us. But people also take into account the level of threat the other adversary poses. If Adam came back for a game wearing a LIONS uniform - I think most fans would cheer his name. Not much threat there. But coming back wearing a Colts, Fins, Raiders jearsy means TOTAL WAR to many. --Booooooo! YOU BUM! Benedict Arnold! I want to thank him for his contribution to his many fine years of service here with a cheer. But thats just me - who I am. I expect some to boo - but my idealist part hopes more people cheer. (Obviously for the opening introduction or his first kickoff -NOT when he kicks a field goal -I am not that generous).
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