Preparing for the draft 'MELTDOWN'--it's still BPA folks...

[MaineMan]

What playmakers on offense do you see? I don't think it goes beyond Newton (if anybody is willing to install the Malzhan spread option system), AJ Green, Julio Jones and perhaps Ingram.

From that group, we don't need a QB like Newton nor we'll reach for him, and AJ and JJ aren't the kind of WR that works out for Brady. Let's face it. Most of Moss' problems in the Patriots were due to the fact that Brady couldn't hit the long passes. 2007 was about Brady airing it out and Moss trying to catch the ball adjusting more to it than the pass to him. When he lost his step and will (around 2008), that was it for "T.Brady to X for +25yds".

The addition of Hernandez and Gronkowski were due to this. Check their routes: either simple posts, seams or deep curls where they could take advantage of their size. Otherwise, Brady just can't put the ball in their hands if they have tight coverage, or move the safeties by himself. Check what happens with Tate. The only big gains last year were due to a blown coverage in a blow play (@DET) and a fake end-of-game play that left him in single coverage with about a 20yd cushion (@CHI).

I'm not saying AJ Green or Julio Jones can only play for those deep routes, but stop thinking of getting the next Moss because that isn't going to happen. I think that if for some reason Julio Jones falls to the 10th pick area, we could trade with Washington (who need help everywhere and as many picks as possible) and get him, but we have more pressing needs.

Now Ingram, I wouldn't waste a 1st rounder on him. He's Maroney all over again. Played behind a very good offensive line in college, slowish, South-North runner that hasn't run any of our running plays in his career. He took a big dump last year statistically and wasn't even the best RB in his team. I don't think we should use anything higher than the 60th on somebody like him. I would draft a RB, nontheless: I eye DeMarco Murray, Toldman or the Hawaii kid. Somebody who fits our system rather than complement it.

And remember: our defense is still on crutches. Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden return. Fine. But they return as 30-year-olders from season-ending injuries. Our pass defense and pass-rushing game are still weak, and we play against teams that air it out this season (NYG, DAL, PHI, SD, PIT, IND).

Interesting. I just checked. It appears we play 7 games against teams (including the Giants and two against the Jets) who were in the top ten (if not the top six) in every rushing category in 2010. We play six games against teams who were in the top ten in several (but not all) passing categories.

 

[mgteich]

There are EIGHT quarterback worthy of being drafted in the first three rounds and the quaterback is considered awful. It is simply a matter of perspective. I agree that there are no quarterbacks worthy of a top ten grade. This quarterback draft crop would be considered just fine if free agency took place before the draft, and those who are truly in need of immediate help secured quarterbacks in free agency.

Supafly -
I have to disagree with your assessment of the draft.

This draft is horrible for QBs. None of them are Franchise worthy. Usually there are one or two who are truly worthy of top 10 billing. But, in all honesty, none of them are. Not Mallet, not Newton, not Locker, not Gabbert. They are all projects. The only reason they are being talked about in the top 10 is because there are no players above them. So, QB desperate teams are going to be reaching this year for sub-standard players.. Which is good for teams looking to trade down. But it also means that those teams will probably be looking again next year for a QB.

The same for RBs. There is no franchise RB in this draft. Ingram isn't one. Neither is LeShoure or Williams. They'll do great in a rotations system, but don't expect them to be able to carry the load.

Over-all, there isn't a lot of top end talent the D-line, OT, and WR. Now, there are a bunch of lunchpail/above average types in this draft at QB, RB, and CB, as well as the D-line, OT, and WR. Guys who will be good starters, but they won't be ELITE.

This draft is really weak at safety and centers.

 

[supafly]

Supafly -
I have to disagree with your assessment of the draft.

This draft is horrible for QBs. None of them are Franchise worthy. Usually there are one or two who are truly worthy of top 10 billing. But, in all honesty, none of them are. Not Mallet, not Newton, not Locker, not Gabbert. They are all projects. The only reason they are being talked about in the top 10 is because there are no players above them. So, QB desperate teams are going to be reaching this year for sub-standard players.. Which is good for teams looking to trade down. But it also means that those teams will probably be looking again next year for a QB.

The same for RBs. There is no franchise RB in this draft. Ingram isn't one. Neither is LeShoure or Williams. They'll do great in a rotations system, but don't expect them to be able to carry the load.

Over-all, there isn't a lot of top end talent the D-line, OT, and WR. Now, there are a bunch of lunchpail/above average types in this draft at QB, RB, and CB, as well as the D-line, OT, and WR. Guys who will be good starters, but they won't be ELITE.

This draft is really weak at safety and centers.

As much as I always respect your opinion DB, we'll have to disagree on this one, as I see your examples as opinionated (not saying that mine aren't too, just that we see it differently)

It sounds to me like you just don't personally like this year's draft. You aren't crazy about the QB position, yet it expected that this year will rival the infamous 1984 year where we saw what? 4-5 QB's taken early. Now I completely understand that you are saying it is b/c there simply aren't any other good players to take, but that still bodes well for the particular position regardless. How good will they be? Who knows? I am only saying that there is a deeper class this year than in recent years--regardless of the reasoning (you very well may be correct about there being a lack of overall quality players)

You state at the end of your statement that there are 'above average QB's, above average RB's, etc,' yet in your opinion NONE will be ELITE. That may very well be true, but we will still need to take some draft picks, we unfortunately cannot defer them all into next year's draft, can we?

The talent level will be determined at a later date of course, and again--maybe you are correct, quite possibly the truth lies somewhere in the middle. There's a pretty decent chance that SOMEONE will do well with one of the teams, as the same goes for RB's too. My point is that we have a GREATER chance at developing these players than other teams, as we have a hall of fame coach, and a hall of fame QB to seek tutelage under. At the very least, even if we do not hit on a 'future' QB, we should at the very least, improve on the current QB situation in the backup sense. Whether or not Hoyer is the man will be up to BB to decide. We can only wait and see.

My point is that I will not be surprised in the least if we end up taking a couple of higher offensive picks (rds 1-3), that is pretty much it. Even if that ends up being QB, I cannot say that I will be surprised. Maybe you will be, as we have differing opinions and ideas.

You also say that 'there are NO franchise RB's' in this years draft..again opinionated at best. There really is no way to tell. I do know that the position is deeper than other positions, and that was/is my point.

Even if you are correct, and it is b/c of a lack of overall talent overall, the truth is still that more teams will be inclined to take a chance at a deeper draft of DE's/OL's/QB's/RB's. Those are the 4 positions that I see with some of the greatest depth, and I still think (again...my opinion) that we have more of a luxury in this draft to take a chance or two. Since I am not sure how you'd see more than 5-6 players making the overall 53 man roster (at best), I think we have a luxury with being able to replenish the offensive side of the ball too.

In all actuality, your opinion that there will be teams reaching for QB's and RB's due to lack of overall talent coincides with my point, believe it or not. Like I said, we still have to take some players obviously, and if there really isn't the talent there, we will be forced to take---someone. I believe that the depth at the positions of DE/OL/QB/RB will have some effect on our picks, and that it will NOT all be defense, as it seems many posters think.

 

[supafly]

What playmakers on offense do you see? I don't think it goes beyond Newton (if anybody is willing to install the Malzhan spread option system), AJ Green, Julio Jones and perhaps Ingram.

From that group, we don't need a QB like Newton nor we'll reach for him, and AJ and JJ aren't the kind of WR that works out for Brady. Let's face it. Most of Moss' problems in the Patriots were due to the fact that Brady couldn't hit the long passes. 2007 was about Brady airing it out and Moss trying to catch the ball adjusting more to it than the pass to him. When he lost his step and will (around 2008), that was it for "T.Brady to X for +25yds".

The addition of Hernandez and Gronkowski were due to this. Check their routes: either simple posts, seams or deep curls where they could take advantage of their size. Otherwise, Brady just can't put the ball in their hands if they have tight coverage, or move the safeties by himself. Check what happens with Tate. The only big gains last year were due to a blown coverage in a blow play (@DET) and a fake end-of-game play that left him in single coverage with about a 20yd cushion (@CHI).

I'm not saying AJ Green or Julio Jones can only play for those deep routes, but stop thinking of getting the next Moss because that isn't going to happen. I think that if for some reason Julio Jones falls to the 10th pick area, we could trade with Washington (who need help everywhere and as many picks as possible) and get him, but we have more pressing needs.

Now Ingram, I wouldn't waste a 1st rounder on him. He's Maroney all over again. Played behind a very good offensive line in college, slowish, South-North runner that hasn't run any of our running plays in his career. He took a big dump last year statistically and wasn't even the best RB in his team. I don't think we should use anything higher than the 60th on somebody like him. I would draft a RB, nontheless: I eye DeMarco Murray, Toldman or the Hawaii kid. Somebody who fits our system rather than complement it.

And remember: our defense is still on crutches. Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden return. Fine. But they return as 30-year-olders from season-ending injuries. Our pass defense and pass-rushing game are still weak, and we play against teams that air it out this season (NYG, DAL, PHI, SD, PIT, IND).

What 'playmakers' do I see on offense? I see a draft where the positions of DE/OL/QB/RB are of the 4 greatest positions of depth. 3 out of those 4 are on the offensive side of the ball.

We could go back and forth on specific players--who I like, who you like, but the truth is that either of us probably know, and that the truth would likely lie somewhere in the middle. It is not up to me (thankfully, b/c I don't get paid ) to determine specific players' strengths/weaknesses. This is also the reason why I do not put much stake into mock drafts. Just look at our annual contest for picking specific players on this site. No one ever gets more than 1 or 2 players out of about an average of 10.

I am just stating facts. The fact is that those 4 positions are of the deepest positions in this upcoming draft, and again, 3 of the 4 positions are on offense.

 

[supafly]

"It's all a smokescreen Supafly"

"We certainly don't need a QB drafted 'high' "

"Why would we need OFFENSE when we already have the league's leading scoring?"

"It's all front seven"

"We shouldn't take a RB in the first few rounds"

"It's not BPA with Belichick"

"We're not going offenese---that's for sure"

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Ummm, yeah.....just like I said

 

[supafly]

Those who are bi#ching and whining are NOT seeing the bigger picture.

For crying out loud, we are playing with house money and already guaranteed ourselves to have the same 2 firsts, and same 2 seconds next yr.

In my mind, there's absolutely no way to lose!!!

It sounds to me people are bitter b/c they saw need at DE, where BB obviously saw plenty of depth, talent, and competition.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Fact: We are still in a position to take the BPA (a Belichickian given), are coming off of a 14-2 year, and still have 'needs' (although they are 'future') on the OTHER side of the ball too.

I have said many times, that since the Maroney/Jackson debacle in '06, we have taken 13 out of out first 14 draft picks on defense. The ONLY exception was Gronkowski last year in round two.

This is a deep draft at several positions. One of course, is DE--the one that we all see as a huge 'need.' Another is at RB. Yet another, much overlooked position is at....eek...QB. Yes, it is a very good draft to take a decent QB, one of the better ones in many, many years. We all know that Belichick is not afraid to take a higher round QB (see Kevin O'Connell, and that was when Brady had several more years than he does now). Will there really be anyone who is all that surprised if Belichick takes a QB in the top 3 rounds? I sure as hell will not.

We all know that we have returning injured starters at DL and CB, not to mention we are pretty well stocked at S, and TE too.

One of the higher picks will indeed likely be at DE--but not because of such extreme 'need,' simply b/c it will be deep at that position, and it will also be the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. I think we will surely take a DE in the first 2 rounds, and that will make such an 'extreme position of need' pretty well stocked. As a matter of fact, that position at DL may even be OVER stocked, with the return of Wright, Pryor, T.Warren + the addition of Stroud, and a high draft pick.

This position will include our staple (Wilfork), the return of a pro bowler (T.Warren), the addition of a decent player (Stroud), the addition of a high draft pick (likely 1st rounder), the return of injured players who know our system and have done decently as sub-rushers (Wright, Pryor), some guys who did okay last year (Deaderick, Love), and even possibly the extension of another year (G.Warren). We also have an extremely high round draft pick from a couple of years ago (Brace). This isn't even taking into account (free agency) and (mid to late round picks). Bill Belichick may very well feel as though this position will be okay

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The LB'ers will go hand in hand with the DL of course, and he may also feel as though another year of Cunningham (high pick), Ninkovich (a typical BB type 'overachieving' type player), a healthy Mayo (led league in tackles), and the combo of Spikes (high pick) and Guyton (proven coverage LB) may be quite enough. I DO BELIEVE he will add to this position, but will it be as high as everyone expects??? First or second round?? This position may very well be taken care of with a mid rounder, a late rounder, or even ....free agency.

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The OL will be revolving around his knowledge of whether or not he feels as though Light may return, or even if Mankins takes his 10 million for another year. Yes, I realize that the position needs improved upon, and yes, I do feel as though he'll take a pick in the first 2 rounds, but you also have a pretty solid line for another year, very viable backups Connely, Wendall, LeVoir (???), Ojinnaka and some younger developing players in Ornberger, Maneri etc. That is not even including our starters in Koppen, Vollmer (high pick), Kaczur, and AT LEAST one of Mankins or Light.

Yes, I do believe that we will likely take a higher OL pick (in top 2 rounds), but this can also be addressed in the mid rounds, the later rounds, and free agency. The bottom line is that it will not be a HUGE position of 'need' as some see it. It will be taken care of.

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So that pretty much accounts for a high pick at DE, and a high pick at either OL/ (OR) OLB--I believe it will be OL, but again, it will likely come down to BPA.

That is 2 picks. We have 6 (top 3 round) picks, and yes we will trade one for next year (hopefully an additional 1st rounder), but we may also PICK up an additional pick in the top 3 rounds this year. It is very possible, so that leaves at LEAST 3-4 picks, at the VERY LEAST 2-3 picks. Where do they go??? Are there really people that are short-sighted enough to warrant all of these picks on front 7 positions? Better yet, are there really people that are short-sighted enough to think that Belichick will warrant all of these on front 7 positions?

It seems as though this board will have a complete meltdown if offensive players are taken. WHY? Are there really people out there that are happy with our future WR position after this yr? Or how about our future RB position? (which also happens to be a draft strength in depth this year)

Are you all really happy with our future QB situation? Or even better yet, our CURRENT backup situation? (again, in a year with obvious QB depth) We have seen examples of a veteran who grooms a rookie for several years, a la Aaron Rodgers/Brett Favre, and even the Indy Colts are smart enough to be seriously looking at backups/possible future QB's this year. Do you think that we aren't just as smart???
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So, to get to my (long awaited) point...Yes, I feel very confident that one or two of our 'early' picks will be used on a possible skill position, as we still need to get younger and faster on offense too. Sure, we all know that is our 'strong' side of the ball, but shouldn't we KEEP it that way? Especially in a year where we are coming into the draft with a perceived 'luxury?' How many of this years picks will actually make the team, especially after the last 2 years? Do you all think we'll field 75-80% of a roster with players in years 1-3? I don't. I think that there is potential for 5-6 players to make the top 53, but I also think that we are in a rare luxury, with a couple of key positions that are DEEP on the offensive (I know, GASP) side of the ball.

Am I bat**** crazy? Or seeing the bigger picture?

Not Crazy. Prescient. Simply prescient!

You have predicted exactly the course BB took, and even analyzed why.

 

[AzPatsFan]

BVA is better. If the best player available is Ryan Mallett or Mason Foster, we won't be drafting them because they simply don't provide value in the Patriots system.

I agree with you about the OL. I think Smith is the only legit 1st rounder. Which is 1 more than the quarterback, tight end or safety class. Really a weird draft class this year.

Another prescient observation. But WRONG. But I never exepcted the most talented QB would fall to us in the Third round.

 

[supafly]

Not Crazy. Prescient. Simply prescient!

You have predicted exactly the course BB took, and even analyzed why.

Thank you for the props AZ, much appreciated.

As someone who does not always see the most optimistic things in life, I certainly appreciate the fact that this coach/owner has continually put this team in playoff contention year in and year out. Not only that, but they continuously look towards the future, which is an incredible feat when you consider that BOTH aspects get accomplished.