Preparing for the draft 'MELTDOWN'--it's still BPA folks...

[supafly]

Fact: We are still in a position to take the BPA (a Belichickian given), are coming off of a 14-2 year, and still have 'needs' (although they are 'future') on the OTHER side of the ball too.

I have said many times, that since the Maroney/Jackson debacle in '06, we have taken 13 out of out first 14 draft picks on defense. The ONLY exception was Gronkowski last year in round two.

This is a deep draft at several positions. One of course, is DE--the one that we all see as a huge 'need.' Another is at RB. Yet another, much overlooked position is at....eek...QB. Yes, it is a very good draft to take a decent QB, one of the better ones in many, many years. We all know that Belichick is not afraid to take a higher round QB (see Kevin O'Connell, and that was when Brady had several more years than he does now). Will there really be anyone who is all that surprised if Belichick takes a QB in the top 3 rounds? I sure as hell will not.

We all know that we have returning injured starters at DL and CB, not to mention we are pretty well stocked at S, and TE too.

One of the higher picks will indeed likely be at DE--but not because of such extreme 'need,' simply b/c it will be deep at that position, and it will also be the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. I think we will surely take a DE in the first 2 rounds, and that will make such an 'extreme position of need' pretty well stocked. As a matter of fact, that position at DL may even be OVER stocked, with the return of Wright, Pryor, T.Warren + the addition of Stroud, and a high draft pick.

This position will include our staple (Wilfork), the return of a pro bowler (T.Warren), the addition of a decent player (Stroud), the addition of a high draft pick (likely 1st rounder), the return of injured players who know our system and have done decently as sub-rushers (Wright, Pryor), some guys who did okay last year (Deaderick, Love), and even possibly the extension of another year (G.Warren). We also have an extremely high round draft pick from a couple of years ago (Brace). This isn't even taking into account (free agency) and (mid to late round picks). Bill Belichick may very well feel as though this position will be okay

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The LB'ers will go hand in hand with the DL of course, and he may also feel as though another year of Cunningham (high pick), Ninkovich (a typical BB type 'overachieving' type player), a healthy Mayo (led league in tackles), and the combo of Spikes (high pick) and Guyton (proven coverage LB) may be quite enough. I DO BELIEVE he will add to this position, but will it be as high as everyone expects??? First or second round?? This position may very well be taken care of with a mid rounder, a late rounder, or even ....free agency.

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The OL will be revolving around his knowledge of whether or not he feels as though Light may return, or even if Mankins takes his 10 million for another year. Yes, I realize that the position needs improved upon, and yes, I do feel as though he'll take a pick in the first 2 rounds, but you also have a pretty solid line for another year, very viable backups Connely, Wendall, LeVoir (???), Ojinnaka and some younger developing players in Ornberger, Maneri etc. That is not even including our starters in Koppen, Vollmer (high pick), Kaczur, and AT LEAST one of Mankins or Light.

Yes, I do believe that we will likely take a higher OL pick (in top 2 rounds), but this can also be addressed in the mid rounds, the later rounds, and free agency. The bottom line is that it will not be a HUGE position of 'need' as some see it. It will be taken care of.

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So that pretty much accounts for a high pick at DE, and a high pick at either OL/ (OR) OLB--I believe it will be OL, but again, it will likely come down to BPA.

That is 2 picks. We have 6 (top 3 round) picks, and yes we will trade one for next year (hopefully an additional 1st rounder), but we may also PICK up an additional pick in the top 3 rounds this year. It is very possible, so that leaves at LEAST 3-4 picks, at the VERY LEAST 2-3 picks. Where do they go??? Are there really people that are short-sighted enough to warrant all of these picks on front 7 positions? Better yet, are there really people that are short-sighted enough to think that Belichick will warrant all of these on front 7 positions?

It seems as though this board will have a complete meltdown if offensive players are taken. WHY? Are there really people out there that are happy with our future WR position after this yr? Or how about our future RB position? (which also happens to be a draft strength in depth this year)

Are you all really happy with our future QB situation? Or even better yet, our CURRENT backup situation? (again, in a year with obvious QB depth) We have seen examples of a veteran who grooms a rookie for several years, a la Aaron Rodgers/Brett Favre, and even the Indy Colts are smart enough to be seriously looking at backups/possible future QB's this year. Do you think that we aren't just as smart???
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So, to get to my (long awaited) point...Yes, I feel very confident that one or two of our 'early' picks will be used on a possible skill position, as we still need to get younger and faster on offense too. Sure, we all know that is our 'strong' side of the ball, but shouldn't we KEEP it that way? Especially in a year where we are coming into the draft with a perceived 'luxury?' How many of this years picks will actually make the team, especially after the last 2 years? Do you all think we'll field 75-80% of a roster with players in years 1-3? I don't. I think that there is potential for 5-6 players to make the top 53, but I also think that we are in a rare luxury, with a couple of key positions that are DEEP on the offensive (I know, GASP) side of the ball.

Am I bat**** crazy? Or seeing the bigger picture?

 

[Fencer]

I think what you said is:

• With some picks, the Patriots will probably strengthen or deepend positions that have worked well in recent years, but are aging.
• With some picks, the Patriots will probably strengthen or deepen positions that have plenty of young talent, but haven't fully clicked yet.

Makes sense to me.

Did I miss anything?

 

[BelichickFan]

I expect BPA early simply because we have so many picks. I wouldn't expect the pass rushing OLB everyone wants anyway because of the added conversion risk but we pick so often that we don't have to fill the top need at a certain spot. If we picked at 28 then 60, as we would with our natural picks, then we may not be able to get the DE we want at 60. But we have 17 then eleven picks later we have 28 then five picks later we have 33. So I also expect us to take BPA simply because we can fill a need soon after if necessary.

 

[Peachhead]

The OL class is lousy this year. If an OL is truly the BPA at any of our spots I'll be surprised. Yet I suspect we'll take at least a couple.

Perhaps my definition of "BPA" needs to be tweeked.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Since I don't feel like typing this again, I'll just link you to this post explaining my theory of what the Patriots look for in the early rounds (hint: it's not BPA).

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Since I don't feel like typing this again, I'll just link you to this post explaining my theory of what the Patriots look for in the early rounds (hint: it's not BPA).

It's marginal thinking like that which gives our draft discussions their reputation for value. :snob:

 

[dryheat44]

The OL class is lousy this year. If an OL is truly the BPA at any of our spots I'll be surprised. Yet I suspect we'll take at least a couple.

Perhaps my definition of "BPA" needs to be tweeked.

BVA is better. If the best player available is Ryan Mallett or Mason Foster, we won't be drafting them because they simply don't provide value in the Patriots system.

I agree with you about the OL. I think Smith is the only legit 1st rounder. Which is 1 more than the quarterback, tight end or safety class. Really a weird draft class this year.

 

[sbpatfan]

I've never gotten upset with how a draft has turned out, there's a reason why I'm watching on the couch. My binkys become the guys we end up with after draft day.

 

[Seneschal2]

Yet another, much overlooked position is at....eek...QB. Yes, it is a very good draft to take a decent QB, one of the better ones in many, many years. We all know that Belichick is not afraid to take a higher round QB (see Kevin O'Connell, and that was when Brady had several more years than he does now). Will there really be anyone who is all that surprised if Belichick takes a QB in the top 3 rounds? I sure as hell will not.

O'Connell set the precedent in round three. Nothing more needs to be said.

One of the higher picks will indeed likely be at DE--but not because of such extreme 'need,' simply b/c it will be deep at that position, and it will also be the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. I think we will surely take a DE in the first 2 rounds, and that will make such an 'extreme position of need' pretty well stocked. As a matter of fact, that position at DL may even be OVER stocked, with the return of Wright, Pryor, T.Warren + the addition of Stroud, and a high draft pick.

Be careful when defining "needs" at ANY position. Too many factors to consider that fans aren't always privy to.

The LB'ers will go hand in hand with the DL of course, and he may also feel as though another year of Cunningham (high pick), Ninkovich (a typical BB type 'overachieving' type player), a healthy Mayo (led league in tackles), and the combo of Spikes (high pick) and Guyton (proven coverage LB) may be quite enough. I DO BELIEVE he will add to this position, but will it be as high as everyone expects??? First or second round?? This position may very well be taken care of with a mid rounder, a late rounder, or even ....free agency.

BB will attempt to improve the overall pass rush. I would think, both DE and OLB factor into that goal.

Translation: BB will exercise his options.

The OL will be revolving around his knowledge of whether or not he feels as though Light may return, or even if Mankins takes his 10 million for another year. Yes, I realize that the position needs improved upon, and yes, I do feel as though he'll take a pick in the first 2 rounds, but you also have a pretty solid line for another year, very viable backups Connely, Wendall, LeVoir (???), Ojinnaka and some younger developing players in Ornberger, Maneri etc. That is not even including our starters in Koppen, Vollmer (high pick), Kaczur, and AT LEAST one of Mankins or Light.

Yes, I do believe that we will likely take a higher OL pick (in top 2 rounds), but this can also be addressed in the mid rounds, the later rounds, and free agency. The bottom line is that it will not be a HUGE position of 'need' as some see it. It will be taken care of.

Lots of considerations at OL. Contract issues, age factors, performance evaluations for starters and reserves -- all influence when/what/where the positions will be addressed.

It seems as though this board will have a complete meltdown if offensive players are taken. WHY? Are there really people out there that are happy with our future WR position after this yr? Or how about our future RB position? (which also happens to be a draft strength in depth this year)

I don't melt.

Are you all really happy with our future QB situation? Or even better yet, our CURRENT backup situation? (again, in a year with obvious QB depth) We have seen examples of a veteran who grooms a rookie for several years, a la Aaron Rodgers/Brett Favre, and even the Indy Colts are smart enough to be seriously looking at backups/possible future QB's this year. Do you think that we aren't just as smart???

A very valuable position to develop.

Sure, we all know that is our 'strong' side of the ball, but shouldn't we KEEP it that way?

It's important to address all weaknesses and vulnerable areas of the team if there are opportunities to do so. In addition, "strengthening your strengths" is a very wise adage I'm sure Belichick adheres to.

The ONLY expectation I have is for BB to upgrade the roster using his value-based system as best he can.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't melt.

Indeed.

.....

 

[patfanken]

Bo.x - insightful as always. I don't necessarily agree with all that you wrote, but its always well written and thought provoking.

1. The only reason to take a QB in this draft is to prepare to trade him at a future date. I think that any QB taken in THIS draft will have his rookie contract run out before he'd get a chance to play.

2. I found your observation that 13 of 14 high draft picks in the recent past have gone to the Defensive side. Interesting in that we still have to do much better on defense to get to the championship level of the playoffs. Still given how the draft has played out this year as to where the position depth lies at the top of the draft, I still think we have to HEAVILY go to the defensive side of the board in this draft. At least 2 of the first 3 picks HAVE to be defensive players.

3. The key here is the pass rush (notice my keen sense of the obvious). Its not just the Pats who crave pass rush help, its 90% of the rest of the league as well. We all know how the game has changed, especially the passing game.

Back when I played a 50% completion rate was a good day for a QB, and a 300 yd game got national attention. In today's game 60% is just barely adequate, and 4000 yd seasons are a requirement just to be considered one of the better QBs in the league.

So clearly getting a premium pass rusher, or have a group defense that collectively can rush the passer (like the Pats of superbowl years who were among the top sack teams in the league while rarely having an INDIVIDUAL double digit sacker), is paramount.

The problem is how difficult it is to find such guys. I read recently were something like 40 DEs were draft highly over a several year period and only 5 recorded double digit sacks last season and only 11 had EVER had even one double digit season. Clearly its not easy find one of these guys.

And the interesting thing is that some of best pass rushers of recent history have come from all over the draft process. Dummerville and James Harrison were both UDFA (IIRC) or very low draft picks. Jared Allen was a 3rd of 4th round pick. Tully had a double digit season as a 7th rounder. These guys are so rare and so hard to identify that you literally have to commit to using a lot of draft capitol in order to find that elusive quality in a guy at THIS level. That's the reason I'd like to see BOTH a DE type and an OLB type who BOTH have the potential to become a serious pass rusher in our defense. The funny thing is that you only need one to make everyone else that much more effective.

4. You also can't evaluate what the Pats are going to do with this draft without considering the VAST talent pool of FA. That's 500 proven NFL players. Guys with LOTS of film on them. Now I don't necessarily mean that the Pats need to get a high profile, expensive guy like Woodley or Haii. There are also a number of mid level guys who might fill the bill. How many of us were all that excited that the Pats signed a Steeler back up like Mike Vrabel back in 2001. I think there are probably more than a few guys available to who were out of position when they entered the NFL and are no names ready to blossom.

That's one of the problems about playing a 3-4 scheme. There are so few colleges who play it, so that when a guy FINALLY has gotten the experience to fully perform the myriad of responsibilities the position requires, their rookie contract has run out.

I think THIS is year we are in a perfect position to identify some guy that some OTHER team has trained, and take him just before the flower is about to blossom. See Mike Vrabel,

5. Now if the Pats have already identified a couple of potential prospects like this, then we can very well see them draft more for the offense than expected. Unfortunately, like most things concerning the Pats....we just don't know.

Thanks again for the read

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Bo.x - insightful as always. I don't necessarily agree with all that you wrote, but its always well written and thought provoking.

Wait, is my fly open? :blush:

 

[patfanken]

Wait, is my fly open? :blush:

No, if it was, my comment might not have been so flattering.

 

[mgteich]

LET'S SEE

1) A DE early - the quality is there, the need is there, the history of drafting DE's early is there.

2) an OL early - the value is there throughout, but especially in the 25-40 range.

3) RB - There are many ostriches posting here. There are many that simply say, we can get a quality player late. I suspect that thes folks may be in for a disappointment whan we draft a RB early in addition to taking a flyer later.

4) We might very well be disappointed at LB. Many here (including me) would like to see us draft Reed, or even Houston. Belichick may disagree. I suspect that anyone after that will simply sit on the bench.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

No, if it was, my comment might not have been so flattering.

Meow! :snob:

 

[supafly]

Bo.x - insightful as always. I don't necessarily agree with all that you wrote, but its always well written and thought provoking.


Thanks again for the read

Wait? Ken, you're giving Box credit for this insightful read? He gets enough credit as it is?

Nice responses, thnx for the comments.

 

[supafly]

So it seems as though there is a differing opinion on BPA and BVA, which is a great point. BVA is what I should have said, as that is what meshes our teams needs/future wants + BPA. Again, great point.

To wrap it up, many of the regulars will not be as shocked as I suspected (which makes perfect sense), but I still think there will be a high percentage of the average fan who thinks a higher pick at offense is a 'WTF type' pick.

I still expect a higher pick on offense, although I do believe DE and OL will also be addressed. My definition of a higher pick would be through round 3. I think that makes sense.

Thanks for the well-written comments.

 

[Belichick's Midget Army]

What playmakers on offense do you see? I don't think it goes beyond Newton (if anybody is willing to install the Malzhan spread option system), AJ Green, Julio Jones and perhaps Ingram.

From that group, we don't need a QB like Newton nor we'll reach for him, and AJ and JJ aren't the kind of WR that works out for Brady. Let's face it. Most of Moss' problems in the Patriots were due to the fact that Brady couldn't hit the long passes. 2007 was about Brady airing it out and Moss trying to catch the ball adjusting more to it than the pass to him. When he lost his step and will (around 2008), that was it for "T.Brady to X for +25yds".

The addition of Hernandez and Gronkowski were due to this. Check their routes: either simple posts, seams or deep curls where they could take advantage of their size. Otherwise, Brady just can't put the ball in their hands if they have tight coverage, or move the safeties by himself. Check what happens with Tate. The only big gains last year were due to a blown coverage in a blow play (@DET) and a fake end-of-game play that left him in single coverage with about a 20yd cushion (@CHI).

I'm not saying AJ Green or Julio Jones can only play for those deep routes, but stop thinking of getting the next Moss because that isn't going to happen. I think that if for some reason Julio Jones falls to the 10th pick area, we could trade with Washington (who need help everywhere and as many picks as possible) and get him, but we have more pressing needs.

Now Ingram, I wouldn't waste a 1st rounder on him. He's Maroney all over again. Played behind a very good offensive line in college, slowish, South-North runner that hasn't run any of our running plays in his career. He took a big dump last year statistically and wasn't even the best RB in his team. I don't think we should use anything higher than the 60th on somebody like him. I would draft a RB, nontheless: I eye DeMarco Murray, Toldman or the Hawaii kid. Somebody who fits our system rather than complement it.

And remember: our defense is still on crutches. Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden return. Fine. But they return as 30-year-olders from season-ending injuries. Our pass defense and pass-rushing game are still weak, and we play against teams that air it out this season (NYG, DAL, PHI, SD, PIT, IND).

 

[bucky]

Since I don't feel like typing this again, I'll just link you to this post explaining my theory of what the Patriots look for in the early rounds (hint: it's not BPA).

I agree 100%. It's BPA at some point, but in the first 2 rounds it's definitely not.

 

[DaBruinz]

Supafly -
I have to disagree with your assessment of the draft.

This draft is horrible for QBs. None of them are Franchise worthy. Usually there are one or two who are truly worthy of top 10 billing. But, in all honesty, none of them are. Not Mallet, not Newton, not Locker, not Gabbert. They are all projects. The only reason they are being talked about in the top 10 is because there are no players above them. So, QB desperate teams are going to be reaching this year for sub-standard players.. Which is good for teams looking to trade down. But it also means that those teams will probably be looking again next year for a QB.

The same for RBs. There is no franchise RB in this draft. Ingram isn't one. Neither is LeShoure or Williams. They'll do great in a rotations system, but don't expect them to be able to carry the load.

Over-all, there isn't a lot of top end talent the D-line, OT, and WR. Now, there are a bunch of lunchpail/above average types in this draft at QB, RB, and CB, as well as the D-line, OT, and WR. Guys who will be good starters, but they won't be ELITE.

This draft is really weak at safety and centers.