Post-Combine Off-Season Mock (with full salary cap projections)

[everlong]

From a body type comparison, I think Upshaw and Woodly is a good one. And while Woodly may be better in coverage, Upshaw is much better against the run. I've said in previous threads that I haven't seen a DE/OLB prospect that plays the run as well as Upshaw in my time following the draft (which hasn't been very long). He might be limited in coverage, but I think those responsibilities in this system are overblown. Its not like he is going to be asked to run down the field with TE's, he would be asked to drop into shallow zones and cover the flats, where he has shown good instincts at Alabama.

I agree Upshaw is better again the run than Woodley.

In terms of the weak side backer having less coverage responsibilities that's been true more recently because it's been the likes of Burgess, TBC, Carter and Anderson over there. So you only see them drop sporadically if ever. Teams know this and will set up formations to take advantage of the weakness. When it was Vrabel, Colvin or Thomas on that side they were average in the case of Colvin and above average for Vrabel and Thomas in coverage. When the backer on that side can drop it opens up a lot more creativity with the defenses. Ninkovich for all the complaining on this board about him being a stop gap is a good pass defender. Maybe Bill is OK with having one guy who can drop and that would open up the possibility for Upshaw but I think between his physical measurables and his being suspect in space they'll pass.

Good discussion and thanks for the hard work on your mock.

 

[Wilfork#75]

My GOD, I do love Brother Wilfork's MasterPieces!! :rocker:

Thank you kind sir, you are a scholar and a gentleman. I am eagerly awaiting awaiting who you will dig up for us this year, its one of the best parts of the draft preparation.

To be fair, I must give credit to where I get a large amount of my information, especially about the lower end guys. I'm not sure if you're familiar with it, but its www.FanaticalFootballFiend.com

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

My GOD, I do love Brother Wilfork's MasterPieces!! :rocker:

Speaking of masterpieces, you haven't posted a mock in AGES!

I need my fix!

 

[Off The Grid]

My GOD, I do love Brother Wilfork's MasterPieces!! :rocker:

Thank you kind sir, you are a scholar and a gentleman. I am eagerly awaiting awaiting who you will dig up for us this year, its one of the best parts of the draft preparation.

To be fair, I must give credit to where I get a large amount of my information, especially about the lower end guys. I'm not sure if you're familiar with it, but its www.FanaticalFootballFiend.com

Hah!! May The God of Your Choice BLESS you, Brother Wilfork!!

I promise you I have been busting my @$$ on this, and am TRIPLING down my efforts to complete my preparations this week ~ by the end of Friday Night, if I can possibly manage it!! ~ so's to finally PRODUCE something worth reading!!

 

[Off The Grid]

Speaking of masterpieces, you haven't posted a mock in AGES!

I need my fix!

Bless your SOUL, Brother Knot!!

That, TOO, I shall produce by the end of the week, or BLEED OUT in trying to!!

 

[manxman2601]

Bless your SOUL, Brother Knot!!

That, TOO, I shall produce by the end of the week, or BLEED OUT in trying to!!

I started on a four rounder yesterday - has been made redundant already with the Brandon Marshall trade (I had the Bears trading up for Floyd). Might just hold off for a while.

FWIW, through two rounds, I had the Patriots drafting Devon Still, Harrison Smith and Marvin Jones plus an additional 3rd and 4th rounder. Would have targeted Dwight Bentley, Brandon Brooks, Jake Bequette and Greg Childs with four remaining picks.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I started on a four rounder yesterday - has been made redundant already with the Brandon Marshall trade (I had the Bears trading up for Floyd). Might just hold off for a while.

Same. I had a Pats trade down with Chi so they could get Stephen Hill at 31.

Wait, you didn't mock Fleming to the Pats? Did you bump your head brother Manx?

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Bless your SOUL, Brother Knot!!

That, TOO, I shall produce by the end of the week, or BLEED OUT in trying to!!

If I don't BLEED OUT waiting, then I'll hope the Pats can fill some wholes in FA and make my mock useless.

 

[manxman2601]

Same. I had a Pats trade down with Chi so they could get Stephen Hill at 31.

Wait, you didn't mock Fleming to the Pats? Did you bump your head brother Manx?

It was painful but I had Dull-ass take him with their second. Press corner so ideal fit for them.

 

[ATippett56]

Wilfork #75,

Great job on the mock draft.

I definitely like the Upshaw, Still, Johnson, Blake, Chapman, Broyles picks. Unfortunately, I don't believe either Upshaw or Still will be available at #27 let alone #31.

Unfortunately, your top three free agent signings did not come to fruition.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Wilfork #75,

Great job on the mock draft.

I definitely like the Upshaw, Still, Johnson, Blake, Chapman, Broyles picks. Unfortunately, I don't believe either Upshaw or Still will be available at #27 let alone #31.

Unfortunately, your top three free agent signings did not come to fruition.

As much as I would have liked those guys, I think they were all overpaid, and wouldn't touch any of them near that money. I don't think anyone could have predicted how much money would be thrown around so early, and I think it makes the draft so much more important now.

 

[everlong]

11. KC- DT- Dontari Poe- Memphis
KC desperately needs a NT for their 3-4. Poe is an athletic freak and should fit well in the middle of the KC defense.

He's had such a rise. Even Mayock has him as his number one DT now. I was watching some of the Youtube stuff on him having not seen him during the year and he shows flashes but overall he doesn't look great on tape. If he has the work ethic and gets coached up he certainly has the athletic ability but he is the ultimate boom or bust in this draft.

So that said I don't know that Pioli who's risk adverse will go this direction. I think to myself would BB take this kid at 27 or 31? I don't.

 

[Wilfork#75]

He's had such a rise. Even Mayock has him as his number one DT now. I was watching some of the Youtube stuff on him having not seen him during the year and he shows flashes but overall he doesn't look great on tape. If he has the work ethic and gets coached up he certainly has the athletic ability but he is the ultimate boom or bust in this draft.

So that said I don't know that Pioli who's risk adverse will go this direction. I think to myself would BB take this kid at 27 or 31? I don't.

I personally don't think he is worth a top 20 pick, but NT's seem to be getting over drafted lately, just look at Phil Taylor last year. I think there is a chance Pioli takes him this high because we have seen him over draft players at positions he places high value on. There is no way Tyson Jackson was the 3rd best player in the draft in 2009, but the value of a 3-4 DE caused Pioli to take him. I think a NT in a 3-4 is much more important than a DE, and Poe is clearly the top guy. Would I take him there? No. Do I think a team like KC that has a huge need at NT might take him there? Maybe.

And just a little off topic, how bad has that top 12 in the 2009 draft turned out. Only 2 guys have really lived up to expectations, and that's Stafford and Raji. You've got a couple of guys that are solid but unspectacular like Jackson, Heyward-Bey and Crabtree. Then you've got a bunch of guys that have been huge disappointments, like Jason Smith, Aaron Curry, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Aaron Maybin, Knowshon Moreno and Marky Mark Sanchez (well he's not a disappointment for Pats fans). It looks like overall, picks 20-32 were much more successful that 1-12, so there is a lot of hope for this draft.

 

[everlong]

I personally don't think he is worth a top 20 pick, but NT's seem to be getting over drafted lately, just look at Phil Taylor last year. I think there is a chance Pioli takes him this high because we have seen him over draft players at positions he places high value on. There is no way Tyson Jackson was the 3rd best player in the draft in 2009, but the value of a 3-4 DE caused Pioli to take him. I think a NT in a 3-4 is much more important than a DE, and Poe is clearly the top guy. Would I take him there? No. Do I think a team like KC that has a huge need at NT might take him there? Maybe.

And just a little off topic, how bad has that top 12 in the 2009 draft turned out. Only 2 guys have really lived up to expectations, and that's Stafford and Raji. You've got a couple of guys that are solid but unspectacular like Jackson, Heyward-Bey and Crabtree. Then you've got a bunch of guys that have been huge disappointments, like Jason Smith, Aaron Curry, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Aaron Maybin, Knowshon Moreno and Marky Mark Sanchez (well he's not a disappointment for Pats fans). It looks like overall, picks 20-32 were much more successful that 1-12, so there is a lot of hope for this draft.

I know you don't value him in the top 20. I was more thinking about Pioli and I don't think he'll go there. Now SD, AZ, NYJ and Cincy.....ya I can see them overdrafting him. If the Jets take him, LOL.

I think 2012 the sweet spot is 20-50. The guys 6-19 aren't much better. I just hope some positions of need fall to us and teams over draft the WRs and then we get still get one at 48 who's not that different than the top guys. It's funny how years are like 2009. 2004 was an insane draft with almost no busts which is why Wilfork fell to us. Even Gallery who was viewed as an early bust has had a good career.

 

[ATippett56]

I don't think anyone could have predicted how much money would be thrown around so early, and I think it makes the draft so much more important now.

If the New England Patriots defense is to improve, I agree with you the 2012 NFL draft is so much more important now.

 

[patsderoer]

Devon Still and his 50% motor will improve the Pats defence? This guy doesnt only take plays off, he takes whole quarters off.

No. 71 Devon Still DT Penn State vs Illinois 2011 - YouTube

0:23 he is pushed back 1on1 3yards; RB runs straight through the place where he was at LOS; Still's teammates make the tackle

2:43 immediately after the snap, he jumps into a double team, loses balance and he is pushed to the ground by one OL; RB runs through the lane next to him for a 15yard gain. gain was erased because of a holding call against illinois' center(he was not the OL who took out Still).

4:32 he is pushed back 3yards and taken out of play 1on1
RB runs straight through the place where Still was at the LOS at the snap

5:39 1on1 he is pushed laterally out of play
RB runs straight through the place where he was at the LOS at the snap

6:10 1on1 he is pushed laterally out of play
RB runs straight through the place where he was at the LOS at the snap

6:23 he is pushed back by his tackler and the RB 6 yards;
swarming defense helps to stop the RB

6:35 pushed back 2 yards 1on1; swarming defense helps to stop the RB

6:50 1on1 he is pushed out of play laterally;
RB runs straight through the place where he was at the LOS for a 5 yard gain

7:48 immediately after the snap he jumps into a double team, then he is pushed laterally out of play 1on1
RB runs straight through the place where he was at the LOS at the snap
his teammates make the tackle after 8 yards

Thats like 9 plays where he was pushed back and taken out of play 1on1 by some average at best college OL; I doubt that he will do much better against NFL OLs.

Pats dont need players who take plays off on defence, and they certainly dont need players who take whole quarters off on defence.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Devon Still and his 50% motor will improve the Pats defence? This guy doesnt only take plays off, he takes whole quarters off.

No. 71 Devon Still DT Penn State vs Illinois 2011 - YouTube

0:23 he is pushed back 1on1 3yards; RB runs straight through the place where he was at LOS; Still's teammates make the tackle

2:43 immediately after the snap, he jumps into a double team, loses balance and he is pushed to the ground by one OL; RB runs through the lane next to him for a 15yard gain. gain was erased because of a holding call against illinois' center(he was not the OL who took out Still).

4:32 he is pushed back 3yards and taken out of play 1on1
RB runs straight through the place where Still was at the LOS at the snap

5:39 1on1 he is pushed laterally out of play
RB runs straight through the place where he was at the LOS at the snap

6:10 1on1 he is pushed laterally out of play
RB runs straight through the place where he was at the LOS at the snap

6:23 he is pushed back by his tackler and the RB 6 yards;
swarming defense helps to stop the RB

6:35 pushed back 2 yards 1on1; swarming defense helps to stop the RB

6:50 1on1 he is pushed out of play laterally;
RB runs straight through the place where he was at the LOS for a 5 yard gain

7:48 immediately after the snap he jumps into a double team, then he is pushed laterally out of play 1on1
RB runs straight through the place where he was at the LOS at the snap
his teammates make the tackle after 8 yards

Thats like 9 plays where he was pushed back and taken out of play 1on1 by some average at best college OL; I doubt that he will do much better against NFL OLs.

Pats dont need players who take plays off on defence, and they certainly dont need players who take whole quarters off on defence.

Interesting that you didn't mention a sack, TFL, forced fumble, double teams(espone where t blocked down on him allowing blitzing olb to pick up a sack. His stats for that game. I know you love you some stats. Were 10 tackles and 3.5 of them were TFL.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2011/player/539/1010692/tackle/gamelog.html

 

[patsderoer]

I know you love you some stats.

You know wrong. I love production. And I love players with 100% motor, who dont take any play off.

Interesting that you didn't mention a sack, TFL, forced fumble, double teams(espone where t blocked down on him allowing blitzing olb to pick up a sack. His stats for that game. Were 10 tackles and 3.5 of them were TFL.

cfbstats.com - Devon Still 2011 Player Statistics - Penn State Nittany Lions

I did mention 50% motor. He didnt force any fumble in that game. 1 sack, 3.5 TFL and 9 times he was owned 1on1 vs average at best college opposition.

For every flashy play he takes 2 plays off. He was pushed back and out of play, with the RB running straight through his gap, numerous times by average at best college OLs. He's no improvement for the Pats defence.

 

[patsfaninpa]

You know wrong. I love production. And I love players with 100% motor, who dont take any play off.



I did mention 50% motor. He didnt force any fumble in that game. 1 sack, 3.5 TFL and 9 times he was owned 1on1 vs average at best college opposition.

For every flashy play he takes 2 plays off. He was pushed back and out of play, with the RB running straight through his gap, numerous times by average at best college OLs. He's no improvement for the Pats defence.

Maintaining your ground 1yd off the line of scrimmage isn't a negative play for a def. lineman. How can he be in on so many tackles and still play poorly?

 

[rookBoston]

wow, a full mock draft with trades, detailed analysis of Pats picks, complete free agency moves against the cap and a 53-man projection. Damn impressive piece of work, I congratulate you.

I can't possibly match the effort, but here are a few opinions:

- Thank you for putting Ryan Broyles in the draft class. Honestly, I'd even be willing to spend a pick a round earlier than you have him going.

- Upshaw is a great pick, and I am beginning to think he might last to 27, as crazy as that sounds to me. I'm hoping that the rest of the GMs in the NFL are as dumb as they seem on TV.

- I am not sold on Jeffery for myself, but I respect the pick. Early mocks, dating back to October and November had Jeffery in the top half of the first round.

- I don't buy the "McCourty to FS" gossip. I don't know where that came from, but I think it's silly. The kid has a pro bowl rookie year at CB, is named a team captain as a sophomore, has a second year slump, and suddenly the Nation is convinced he's playing out of position?!? I don't follow the rationale at all. Myself, I think his rookie success maybe caught up with him mentally. Expectations can get into your brain if you think about it too much; that is the Great Lesson of Life that anyone who has ever played golf understands. He's still a kid. For me, his astonishing rookie season earned him at least one more season before I start to question him as our franchise CB. What he did as a rook was not a random fluke. He systematically shut down the best receivers in the NFL. He'll rediscover his form when he finds his center of gravity as a pro.

- re-signing Bennie, Connolly, Slater, Carter, Love, Branch... yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes. It's like a premonition.