Post-Combine Off-Season Mock (with full salary cap projections)

[Wilfork#75]

*Like last time, it’s quite long and will go over a few pages so bear with me.

Round 1
1. Ind- QB- Andrew Luck- Stanford
No Brainer

2. Wash (Stl)- QB- Robert Griffin III- Baylor
See above

3. Min- OT- Matt Kalil- USC
This pick is between Kalil and Blackmon, and Franchise LT>>>>>>WR

4. Jax (Cle)- WR- Justin Blackmon- Oklahoma State
Jacksonville really needs a playmaker for Blaine Gabbert, so they make an aggressive move and go and get the top WR in the draft

5. TB- CB- Morris Claiborne
Easy pick. TB’s biggest need is CB, and the top CB is available at #5

6. Stl (Wash)- OT- Reilly Reiff- Iowa
They would have liked Blackmon, but they get a quality LT to protect Sam Bradford. Hopefully Reiff turns out better than their last top 10 OT.

7. Sea (Cle via Jax)- QB- Ryan Tannehill- Texas A&M
Seattle jumps Miami to grab their QB of the future. Cleveland has a lot of holes, so like last year they move down and acquire picks.

8. Mia- DE- Quinton Coples- UNC
Miami is transitioning to a 4-3 so they need a DE to put across from Cameron Wake. Coples projects much better to a 4-3 than Melvin Ingram

9. Car- DT- Fletcher Cox- Miss State
By draft day I think Cox will be the top DT in the draft, and Carolina really needs an interior presence.

10. Buf- DE/OLB- Melvin Ingram- South Carolina
Buffalo desperately needs a pass rush, and I think they will fall in love with Ingram’s explosiveness.

11. KC- DT- Dontari Poe- Memphis
KC desperately needs a NT for their 3-4. Poe is an athletic freak and should fit well in the middle of the KC defense.

12. Cle (Sea)- RB- Trent Richardson- Alabama
After missing out on RGIII, Cleveland manages to move down twice and still pick up an elite player in Richardson, who will be the feature weapon on the Browns offense.

13. Ari- OT- Jonathan Martin- Stanford
I’m predicting Arizona to sign Peyton Manning, so now they need to protect him. Martin is by far the best OT left on the board.

14. Dal- OG- David DeCastro- Stanford
Dallas needs interior OL help and DeCastro is one of the best to come a long in a very long time.

15. Phi- LB- Luke Kuechly- BC
This is probably a little low for Kuechly, but ILB isn’t a highly rated position. However, Philly is the perfect spot for him and he will make a huge impact in their defense

16. NYJ- S- Mark Barron- Alabama
The Jest need help in a lot of areas, with safety being one of the biggest. They aren’t afraid to take a risk so I don’t think they will be put off by his injury.

17. Cin- CB- Dre Kirkpatrick- Alabama
Cincy badly needs help at CB and interior OL, so this will be a pick between Kirkpatrick, Janoris Jenkins and Cordy Glenn. Kirkpatrick is rated the highest so he is the pick.

18. SD- DE/OLB- Whitney Mercilus- Illinois
SD will likely go pass rusher or WR. They have already had trouble with one WR with a drinking problem, so I think they go with the pass rusher. Mercilus is rising and I don’t think he is done yet, so SD takes him over Perry.

19. Chi- WR- Michael Floyd- Notre Dame
Chicago finally gives Jay Cutler a weapon, and a good one at that. He has his issues, but Floyd is an extremely talented WR.

20. Ten- C- Peter Konz- Wisconsin
The Titans reach for need and go with Konz at 20. It’s a little higher than expected, but Konz is a top quality C prospect.

21. Cin- OL- Cordy Glenn- Georgia
He was a possibility to go at 17, so Cincy get lucky with Glenn falling to 21. They would love to get a RB, but none are of value at this stage.

22. Cle- WR- Kendall Wright- Baylor
They got a weapon at RB earlier, now they get a WR for whoever their QB is. Wright is still slightly ahead of the fast rising Stephen Hill.

23. Det- CB- Janoris Jenkins- North Alabama
Detroit love defenders with issues, especially when they have talent like Jenkins. CB and OT are both huge needs, so they take Jenkins over Mike Adams.

24. Pit- LB- Don’t’a Hightower- Alabama
I can just see Hightower in a Steelers Jersey, and it also makes sense because he is a fit for their defense. They need help at ILB and OLB, so Hightower can help them in a number of ways.

25. Den- DT- Michael Brockers- LSU
Denver would love a CB here, but with none of value they go to their next biggest need (outside of QB) Defensive Line. This pick is between Brockers and Still, and while both guys are falling, Denver goes for the higher upside in Brockers

26. Hou- WR- Stephen Hill- Georgia Tech
Houston needs to give Schaub a weapon across from Andre Johnson. Hill is a fast riser and has the potential to be a superstar.

27. NE (NO)- DE/OLB- Courtney Upshaw- Alabama

28. GB- DE/OLB- Nick Perry- USC
GB needs another pass rusher across from Clay Matthews. They have had some success with athletic pass rushers from USC before, so they do it again.

29. Bal- OT- Mike Adams- Ohio State
The Ravens would love an ILB to replace Ray Lewis in the future, but none are of value here. They instead go for an OT to put across from Michael Oher and help protect Joe Flacco.

30. SF- DE/OLB- Andre Branch- Clemson
They would have loved a WR top WR to fall here, but with good depth in this draft they decide not to reach for one. They instead go for another pass rusher to add to an already scary defense.

31. NE- DL- Devon Still- Penn State

32. NYG- TE-Coby Fleener- Stanford
The Giants saw firsthand the power of quality TE’s, so now they try to get their own. With Mario Manningham likely to leave a FA, adding another weapon for Manning is a good idea.

Trades
Cleveland 1 (4) to Jacksonville for 1 (7) + 3 (71) +5 (134)
Cleveland 1 (7) to Seattle for 1 (12) + 3 (76) + 2013 3rd


Round 2
33. Stl- LB- Zach Brown- UNC
34. Ind- S-Harrison Smith- Notre Dame
35. Min- CB- Josh Robinson- Central Florida
36. TB- WR- Mohammed Sanu- Rutgers
37. Cle- OL- Kelechi Osemele- Iowa State
38. Jax- QB- Brandon Weedon- Oklahoma State (Surprise pick)
39. Stl- WR- Rueben Randall
40. Car- CB- Stephon Gilmore
41. Buf- TE- Dwayne Allen- Clemson
42. Mia- DT- Jerel Worthy- Michigan State
43. Sea- DL- Kendal Reyes- UConn
44. KC- OG- Kevin Zeitler- Wisconsin
45. Dal- CB- Alfonzo Dennard- Nebraska
46. Phi- DT- Brandon Thompson- Clemson
47. NYJ- RB- David Wilson- Virginia Tech
48. NE- WR- Alshon Jeffery- South Carolina
49. SD- OT- Zebrie Sanders- Florida State
50. Chi- CB- Dwight Bentley- Louisiana Lafayette
51. Phi- WR- Tommy Streeter- Miami
52. Tenn- DE- Chandler Jones- Syracuse
53. Cin- RB- Lamar Miller- Miami
54. Det- S- Markelle Martin- Oklahoma State
55. Atl- C- Ben Jones- Georgia
56. Pit- OL- James Brown- Troy
57. Den- CB- Jayron Hosley- Virginia Tech
58. Hou- NT- Alameda Ta’amu- Washington
59. NO- LB- Lavonte David- Nebraska
60. GB- DL- Billy Wynn- Boise State
61. Bal- DE/OLB- Vinny Curry- Marshall
62. SF- WR- Marvin Jones- Cal
63. Phi (NE)- QB- Brock Osweiler- Arizona State
64. NYG- RB- Doug Martin- Boise State

Trades
NE 2 (63) + 2013 6th to Phi for 3 (77) + 4 (100)


Round 3
65. Ind- WR- Joe Adams- Arkansas
66. Stl- OG- Amini Silatolu- Midwestern State
67. Min- DT- Mike Martin- Michigan
68. NE (Cle)- CB- Trumaine Johnson- Montana
69. TB- LB- Mychal Kendricks- Cal
70. Wash- WR- Chris Givens- Wake Forest
71. Cle (Jax)- DE- Cam Johnson- Virginia
72. Buf- CB- Chase Minnifield- Virginia
73. Mia- OT- Bobby Massie- Mississippi
74. Chi- OG- Brandon Washington- Mia
75. KC- TE- Orson Charles- Georgia
76. Cle (Sea)- CB- Jamell Fleming- Oklahoma
77. NE (Phi)- WR- Juron Criner- Arizona
78. NYJ- OLB- Ronnell Lewis- Oklahoma
79. SD- S- George Iloka- Boise State
80. Chi- QB- Kirk Cousins- Michigan State
81. Ari- DE- Jared Crick- Nebraska
82. Dal- OLB- Shea McClellin- Boise State
83. Tenn- OLB- Bobby Wagner- Utah State
84. Cin- DE- Bruce Irvin- West Virginia
85. Atl- OL- Mitchell Schwartz- Cal
86. Det- OT- Matt McCants- UAB
87. Pit- RB- LaMichael James- Oregon
88. Den- OG- Selio Kelemete- Washington
89. Hou- S- Antonio Allen- South Carolina
90. NO- DT- DaJohn Harris- USC
91. GB- CB- Leonard Johnson- Iowa State
92. Bal- CB- Casey Heyward- Vanderbilt
93. SF- OT- Jeff Allen- Illinois- Washington
94. Den (NE)- QB- Nick Foles- Arizona
95. NYG- CB- Brandon Boykin- Georgia

Trades
NE QB Brian Hoyer to Cle for 3 (68)
NE 3 (94) to Cle for 4 (120) + 5 (129) + 5 (152)

 

[Wilfork#75]

Patriots Draft

Pre-Draft Trades
QB Brian Hoyer to Cle for 3 (68)
Tender and trade. Mallett was the most pro-ready QB in the draft last year, so I am comfortable with him as the primary backup in 2012.

DE/OLB Jermaine Cunningham to KC for 6 (172)
I don’t think he has anything to offer this team, so hopefully Pioli and Romeo can find a use for him

1 (27)- OLB- Courtney Upshaw- Alabama
I said just before the Senior Bowl that I thought the Senior Bowl would be the peak of Upshaw’s stock. This is because it was the last of the on field evaluations of the draft process, and that is where Upshaw excels, as a football player. After skyrocketing into the top 15, Upshaw’s stock is slipping because he isn’t an elite athlete. He isn’t going to run a fast 40 at his private workout, and he isn’t going to blow anyone away in the athletic drills. And I couldn’t care less. This guy is a fantastic football player, and if he falls to the Pats he will be an absolute steal.

The biggest issues with drafting OLB’s for the Pats seem to be projecting them to play on their feet, and their ability to play the run. Upshaw has experience in, and excelled in a similar two-gap 3-4 defense under Nick Saban, against top competition in the SEC. While he has a great first step and is a solid pass rusher, his strength is his ability to set the edge and play the run. He might not have ideal measurables for an OLB, but I think his height actually helps him against the run. His low centre of gravity allows him to gain leverage against offensive lineman, and his lower body strength and explosion allow him to be strong at the point of attack. While he might not look like the ideal Patriots OLB, he certainly plays like it.

1 (31)- DL- Devon Still- Penn State
Another guy that is falling, Still would be another steal for the Pats. 6 weeks ago he was a potential top 10 pick, now he may fall to the very bottom of round 1 because of reasons that have nothing to do with his ability on the field. While he might not have tested as well as some of the other top DL in this draft, but his tape certainly compares. He has good size for a 3-4 DE, and is an explosive and disruptive player in the trenches. He is too good of value to pass up.

2 (48)- WR- Alshon Jeffery- South Carolina
A third top quality player that has fallen and could be the steal of the draft. Everyone that has read my posts know I love Jeffery and I think he will be a monster in the NFL, especially with Brady throwing him the ball. His play reminds me of a combination of Calvin Johnson and Brandon Lloyd. His body movements, frame, catch radius and ability to attack the ball remind me of Megatron. Athletically he reminds me more of Lloyd, who is a long strider with build up speed who is sneaky fast. His body control, hands and ability to make circus catches look easy also remind me of Lloyd. He is dropping because he won’t run a fast 40 time, and he had a drop in production in 2011 (due to inept QB play). And to be honest, like Upshaw’s athletic measurements, I don’t care. The tape doesn’t lie. You can argue he doesn’t get great separation and he might not run crisp routes, but all this kid does when the QB can get him the ball is produce. He catches everything thrown to him, and has been absolutely dominant against elite competition in the SEC. He might not be the sharpest in and out of his breaks, but he is consistent. As Stephen Garcia proved in 2010, once you get on the same page with Jeffery, he is unstoppable.

(2). 64 + future 6th to Phi for 77+ 100

3 (68)- CB- Trumaine Johnson- Montana
A lot of people like Johnson as a FS conversion prospect. I prefer him as a big, press-man cover corner. I like his ability to be physical at the line, he has fluid hips and has fantastic ball skills. I think this guy will be a playmaker in the NFL, and the only knock on him is his level of competition. I would love to pair him with a healthy Ras-I Dowling, giving us two big, physical press-man corners and add a variation to the defense this team hasn’t had for a while. He would also give us the ability to move McCourty to FS full-time, where I think he would be best, and Arrington into the slot.

3 (77)- WR- Juron Criner- Arizona
I had to find a spot for my binky Juron Criner. He is a smart, fluid and versatile WR who runs crisp, consistent routes and can be a weapon all over the field. Another guy that might not be an elite athlete, but just a really good football player. His biggest strength is his YAC, which make him a threat in short and intermediate routes, whether lined up outside or in the slot. But he also has the size and ability to track the deep ball and adjust in the air to make him a deep threat. Like Jeffery, one thing that I really like about Criner was his ability to create a relationship and chemistry with his QB, which is huge in the Pats system. We know he can gain a QB’s confidence and trust, and be extremely productive when this happens.

(3). 94 to Den for 120+ 129+ 152

4 (100)- OG- Brandon Brooks- Miami (OH)
A giant OG prospect, who at 6’5” 346lbs showed fantastic athletic ability. A guy his size normally wouldn’t be a fit for the Pats, but with his lateral agility I think he would fit well. Give him some time to develop and he could form a monster OG tandem with Marcus Cannon. In the 4th round he is definitely worth a shot because his upside is huge.

4 (120)- C- Phil Blake- Baylor
Blake is my 2nd rated C prospect in this draft behind Konz. He really impressed me in the combine drills, and I think he will make a quality NFL player. He has good size at 6’2” 311lbs, he is a versatile O-lineman, who is solid in both pass protection and the run game. A future O-line of LT-Solder (6’8” 319lbs) LG- Brooks (6’5” 346lbs) C- Blake (6’2” 311lbs) RG- Cannon (6’5” 356lbs) RT Vollmer (6’8” 315lbs) certainly looks good to me.

4 (126)- DT- Josh Chapman- Alabama
A talented NT prospect, Chapman’s stock has fallen due to a knee injury, keeping him out pre-draft workouts. He is a tough, talented player, who anchored one of the greatest ever defences in college football history. He has experience playing in Nick Saban’s two-gap 3-4 defense, against top competition in the SEC, so you know he is battle tested. If he’s still here, he is a great pick.

5 (129)- WR- Ryan Broyles- Oklahoma
Yes a 3rd WR in the draft, but this one is all about value. One of the most productive WR’s in college football history, Broyles has had some horrible luck, injuring his knee early in his senior season. He is a 1st round talent who could develop into Wes Welker’s eventual replacement. Along with Chapman, Broyles is a likely PUP/IR candidate for 2012.

5 (152)- LB- Emmanuel Acho- Texas
Gary Guyton won’t be back this season and Tracy White is a FA so a backup LB and special teamer is a need. I really like the look of Acho, who I think can be a good contributor on defense and special teams. He is a really smart kid, good athlete and hard worker. He is only a role player, but in the 5th round I think that’s all you could ask for.

6 (172)-CB- Justin Bethel- Presbyterian
Bethel really caught my eye at the combine drills, where he looked really fluid and showed some ball skills. He is raw, but has good upside, and is a special team’s ace. He is a very well-spoken and articulate young man, who says all the right things and I think he believes them. He is likely a practice squad player, but he could also compete with Malcolm Williams, Antwaun Molden or some JAG CB for the 5th CB and special teams spot.

Top UDFA Targets
QB- Chris Relf-Mississippi State
RB- Lyndon Rowells- Humboldt State
RB- Rod Stewart- Colorado
FB- Devon Ramsey- UNC
WR- Chris Owusu- Stanford
WR- James Rodgers- Oregon State
WR- Taiwan Easterling- Florida State
OT- James Carmon- Mississippi State
OT- Jarvis Jones- Oklahoma
OL- Trindon Strudivant- Georgia
OG- Kelvin Beachum- SMU
OG- Jeremiah Warren- USF
C- Natiel Curry- Bethune Cookman
DL- Chigbo Anunoby- MoreHouse
DL- Charles Deas- Shaw
DL- Armon Armstead- USC
NT- Ishmaa'ily Kitchen- Kent State
DE/OLB- Kentrell Lockett- Ole Miss
DE/OLB- Adewale Ojoma- Miami
DE/OLB- Donovan Robinson- Jackson State
LB- Korey Williams- Southern Miss
LB- Jerrell Harris- Alabama
LB- Demario Davis- Arkansas State
CB-Troy Stoudemire- Minnesota
CB- Desmond Marrow- Toledo
CB- Conroy Black- Utah

 

[Wilfork#75]

Free Agent Signings

DE/OLB- Mario Williams- 6yrs $80mil ($38.5mil Guaranteed, $17.5mil Signing Bonus)
This is obviously the big move of the offseason, which some will agree with, some disagree. I would make Williams a significant offer, and 6yrs $80mil is probably the highest I would go. If he is willing to take that to win a few rings, I would take him in a heartbeat. The first 3 years are all guaranteed, with a $17.5mil signing bonus. Obviously this is just a theoretical deal, but I think it could work.

WR- Robert Meachem- 3yrs $9mil ($2.25mil Signing Bonus)
I have had Brandon Lloyd to the Pats for a long time, but it seems it may make too much sense, so I thought I would shake things up a bit and sign Meachem instead. I like both, so I would be happy with either. Meachem would likely be cheaper, and because of the lower than expected cap and depth in free agency, I think he will come at a reasonable price. He would be the deep threat many here have been obsessing about, and should be a solid contributor.

S- Jordan Babineaux- 2yrs $2.5mil ($500,000 Signing Bonus)
This is my favourite FA safety this year. Babineaux is a really solid S, who is good against the pass and run. His strength is his ability covering over the top on deep routes, which has really been a weakness of the Pats secondary. He has also received the nickname “Big Play Babs” because of his knack of making big plays at key times (just ask the Cowboys). He should come cheap and would be a good veteran presence in the secondary to rotate with Chung and McCourty.

Re-sign
BenJarvus Green-Ellis- 3yrs $6mil ($1.5mil signing bonus)
Dan Connolly- 3yrs $4.5mil ($450,000 signing bonus)
Matthew Slater- 4yrs $4mil ($1mil signing bonus)
Andre Carter- 1yr $1.75mil ($500,000 roster bonus)
Kyle Love- ERFA Minimum $540,000 (3yr $4.5mil extension starting 2013)
Deion Branch- Vet Minimum
James Ihedigbo- Vet Minimum
Dorin ****erson- Minimum


Projected Roster
QB- Brady, Mallet
RB- BJGE, Woodhead, Ridley, Vereen
TE- Gronk, Hernandez, ****erson
WR- Welker, Jeffery, Meachem, Criner, Branch
OT- Light, Vollmer, Solder, Cannon
OG- Mankins, Waters, Brooks
C- Connolly, Blake
Offense- 23

DL- Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Still, Brace, Pryor, Anunoby (token UDFA)
DE/OLB- Williams, Upshaw, Ninkovich, Carter
ILB- Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Acho
CB- Dowling, Johnson, Arrington, Moore, Bethel/Molden/Williams
S- Chung, McCourty, Babineaux, Ihedigbo
Defense-24

K-Gostkowski
P-Mesko
LS- Aiken
ST- Edelman, Slater, Tarpanian
Total 53

PUP/IR
WR- Broyles
DL- Chapman

Salary Cap
*All signing/re-signings are hypothetical contracts I made up

*All rookie contracts are based on the corresponding 2011 draft slotting salaries, accounting for rise in rookie base salary increase

*Any errors or unrealistic numbers, let me know, it’s definitely not perfect

This projected 53 man roster with two PUP/IR and practice squad players totalled $113,954,574 ($112,210,449 top 53 Salary, $976,125 PUP/IR and $768,000 practice squad)

The dead cap for this season after cuts and trades is $12,943,306 (note: Chad Ochocinco and Ryan Wendell cut after June 1 to spread the dead cap over 2 seasons).

Total Cap used for 2012- $126,897,880

The Salary cap for the 2012 season is $120.6million. Assuming the Pats use all of the available rollover from the 2011 season, that adds $6,668,877 taking the total to $127,268,877

This only leaves $370,997 in free cap space for injuries and insurance. This obviously isn’t enough and is an unrealistic amount of space to be comfortable with going into the season. However, this is without any restructuring and having Welker play out the season on the franchise tag. You could save $4mil by restructuring Brady, but it’s a trade off with his last 2 season’s going over $20mil. Ideally you sign Welker long term, reduce his cap hit for 2012 to around $7mil, and give yourself about $3mil to play with for injuries. This number also assumes that Chapman and Broyles start the year on IR or PUP. If they are healthy and can beat out some of the Vets on the roster (Branch and Brace?) that could easily save another $1.5mil+ in cap space.

Post-Combine 2012 Patriots Mock (Salary Cap)


I also quickly looked at the 2013 cap, and the potential impact some of these signings could have in the future. With 41 guys on the hypothetical roster, the projected cap is $93,558,316 with dead cap of $1,733,334. Assuming Light, Waters and Carter retire, and the cap increases slightly ($123mil?), that would leave about $25-28mil for the final 12 spots. Assuming half of those are taken up by draft picks/UDFA’s ($5mil), that would leave about $20mil to retain our key free agents (Welker, Chung, Vollmer, Arrington, Woodhead, Brace, Pryor, Ihedigbo) to fill the final spots. So it looks like we are in pretty good shape going forward. 2014 looks like the big year with a number of key FA’s and rising cap hits for vets. But that is also the season the cap is expected to explode, so it will be interesting to see how everything works out.

Patriots Mock Offseason 2013 Salary Cap

 

[dryheat44]

Lot of work here, good job.

The first thing I notice is that I think you are sorely underestimating what it's going to take to re-sign our own. Do you really think UDFA Bennie Green-Ellis has waited for free agency for a chance to sign for $2 million a year? Or that the Pro Bowl special teamer Slater is going to sign for four years at $1 million annually? Unless you mean the dollar figure to represent an annual salary, and not the value of the contract, there's no chance of re-signing those two or Connolly at those proposed numbers. And I assume that you're low-balling Ihedigbo with the assumption that he'll walk away.

I'll review more in depth later, but I think you're exaggerating the hometown discount for guys who have never made much money in this league.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I'm thinking Still and Upshaw drop too. Both players getting negative press. Still runs a 5.06 40 at over 300lbs and gets downgraded? Huh?? People like watching football players run around in shorts and not watch their film. Neither player should be dropping. Our run defense with those two along with a healthy Spikes and Chung would be dynamite. Gonna allow us to get those sub-packages in and create turnovers. Alshon Jeffrey tore that 2010 Alabama defense to shreds. His qb liked to party and got thrown off of the team this year. They bring a young qb who likes to run but can't throw that well yet. He has a down year. Not quite sure how he gets blamed for that. Would love all 3. I think you are optomistic about what we can get for Hoyer. Give me a cb at 63 like Boykin or Minnifield.

Would love to get Mario. Just doubt we pay a non-qb that much cash.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Lot of work here, good job.

The first thing I notice is that I think you are sorely underestimating what it's going to take to re-sign our own. Do you really think UDFA Bennie Green-Ellis has waited for free agency for a chance to sign for $2 million a year? Or that the Pro Bowl special teamer Slater is going to sign for four years at $1 million annually? Unless you mean the dollar figure to represent an annual salary, and not the value of the contract, there's no chance of re-signing those two or Connolly at those proposed numbers. And I assume that you're low-balling Ihedigbo with the assumption that he'll walk away.

I'll review more in depth later, but I think you're exaggerating the hometown discount for guys who have never made much money in this league.

I probably have underestimated our own free agents, and the numbers I posted are probably what I would like to pay. I don't see BJGE getting a huge offer on the open market, and I think he is better suited here than anywhere else. I could live with a larger deal, but not much bigger. Connolly is another guy I don't see getting too much on the open market, and if he does get a bigger offer he can go. Because I drafted a C, I could live with Wendell being the starter until Blake is ready. With Slater, for a special teamer only, that doesn't return kicks or punts, $1mil a year is a very fair deal. If he was a return man I could justify more, but he only has a limited role.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I'm thinking Still and Upshaw drop too. Both players getting negative press. Still runs a 5.06 40 at over 300lbs and gets downgraded? Huh?? People like watching football players run around in shorts and not watch their film. Neither player should be dropping. Our run defense with those two along with a healthy Spikes and Chung would be dynamite. Gonna allow us to get those sub-packages in and create turnovers. Alshon Jeffrey tore that 2010 Alabama defense to shreds. His qb liked to party and got thrown off of the team this year. They bring a young qb who likes to run but can't throw that well yet. He has a down year. Not quite sure how he gets blamed for that. Would love all 3. I think you are optomistic about what we can get for Hoyer. Give me a cb at 63 like Boykin or Minnifield.

Would love to get Mario. Just doubt we pay a non-qb that much cash.

I would normally agree, and for anyone else in free agency I wouldn't go near that. But I think Mario is a perfect storm of age, talent, versatility and potentially value. If he's willing to take 6yrs $80 I would give it too him. If he wanted any more I would walk away.

 

[UK_Pat37]

In your first round I would probably argue Reiff is going to drop...maybe even out of the 20s. His combine measurements were underwhelming and his shorter arms aren't ideal for a left tackle. Find it hard to see a RT, or even Guard convert as some may now see him, going in the top ten.

 

[Wilfork#75]

In your first round I would probably argue Reiff is going to drop...maybe even out of the 20s. His combine measurements were underwhelming and his shorter arms aren't ideal for a left tackle. Find it hard to see a RT, or even Guard convert as some may now see him, going in the top ten.

Reiff is a really tough one to get a read on. I've seen others say the same thing, that he is a guard convert in the NFL. Then I have seen others dismiss it and think he is the clear #2 OT (someone on the nfl network actually has him ahead of Kalil, I think it might be Casserly), and a solid top 10 pick. I think he has a LT skill set, so it will be up to individual teams to determine how his measurables best fit their scheme.

 

[everlong]

I don't see the Pats taking Upshaw. He's great at setting the edge and is a good pash rush but limited a bit to a bull rush. His measurables are very similar to Llmar Woodly and Woodly has longer arms. Woodley is also better in space and dropping in coverage.

If Still drops that far I'll be shocked it they don't draft him. He could easily be the next Ty Warren. That said if Brockers drops to the 20's and they don't trade up for him I'll be in the market for a new flat screen. If they were somehow, and I know this is pipe dream city get both of these guys and have a front starting D-Line of Still-Wilfork-Brockers and still have rotationally Love and Diederick that would be pretty nice. I don't know what you can count on from Pryor and Brace at this point.

 

[everlong]

3 (68)- CB- Trumaine Johnson- Montana
A lot of people like Johnson as a FS conversion prospect. I prefer him as a big, press-man cover corner. I like his ability to be physical at the line, he has fluid hips and has fantastic ball skills. I think this guy will be a playmaker in the NFL, and the only knock on him is his level of competition. I would love to pair him with a healthy Ras-I Dowling, giving us two big, physical press-man corners and add a variation to the defense this team hasn’t had for a while. He would also give us the ability to move McCourty to FS full-time, where I think he would be best, and Arrington into the slot.

I like him as a conversion project but really with the way the game is going having McCorty, Dowling and Johnson as guys who could play corner inside on a TE, outside or safety is very advantageous. He does have some off the field issues that need to check out.

 

[patfanken]

I love when you guys do this much work to give guys like me all this info. Truly EPIC. Its why I come to the Draft board. Thank you Wilfolk

All that being said, here is what I'm thinking ....at least for today.

1. On the first round, Seattle wouldn't have to jump the Dolphins since before the draft they would have signed Flynn, who is a no brainer in Miami now that it looks like Manning is going elsewhere.

2. The more I think on it, the more I believe that BB will continue frustrating Pats fans by NOT drafting a DE/OLB in the first round. There are just too many examples that the best value in finding the OLB that fits what BB wants, is in finding someone who is already 4 or 5 years into the transition from college DE to 3-4 OLB....in the BB system.. Much easier to evaluate than from the draft which is all a crap shoot, and even if you finally guess right, by the time you start to get some production from your asset, he's ready for FA. Pick one in the draft sure, but not that high.

So as tempting as it is, I tihnk the Pats are best served passing on Upshaw and if we have to draft a conversion OLB as a development player, its best to do it in round 2 or below. So if the draft went exactly as you set it up, I'd draft Still at 27 and Gilmore at 31, a much better choice IMHO than Robinson. Aren't you tired of watching a decade of Patriot mini CB's have good coverage on bigger WRs only to be out-physicaled when the ball came. Gilmore is plenty fast enough.

3. You seem to have done your FA's without thought to the draft. Why draft Jefferies AND Criner when went out in FA to pick up Lloyd or Meacham - Adding 3 WRs is massive overkill and at best only 2 make the roster. Plus to make matter worse only Meacham is a true "deep threat" and has had a VERY mixed career with NO.

So, if I keep to your draft order, I pass on Jeffery and get Chandler Jones. A much better value as a OLB/DE prospect with numbers similar to Ingram's and Upshaw's

4.I'm fine with your trade at the end of the 2nd - but in my fantasy world, I have solved my FS needs by getting Richard Marshall, who played FS for the Cardinals for most of last season, but do want a young S to develop. Johnson and Iloka are intriguing options but I prefer Markell Martin as that developmental player. He has more speed and seems to be better in coverage

5. Then after passing on Jeffery, now your Criner pick makes more sense.

6. On your trades. I can't understand the desire to essentially dump Cunningham. in 2010 he played remarkably well for a rookie OLB, who was injured all traiining camp, and was forced to take a lot of snaps as an OLB. Granted he had a horrible year last season, but was hurt for most of it. I just don't understand why fans who SHOULD understand how long it takes to learn and have an impact at that position would be so anxious to dump a player like Cunningham after a decent rookie year, and an injury plagued second.

No one is going to give us a 3rd for Hoyer....or a 4th....or a 5th....or a 6th. The Pats may know his value, but the FA QB market is so deep with players with tons of film and some success on them, giving up draft picks for a player who has virtually none makes no sense. I wish and hope, I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

7. I'm not good enough to comment on any of your picks after the 3rd round, I'll just say I like the B guys, Baylor and Bethel. Both stood out as excellent prospects

8. As to your FA's -
a. Our own - Agree with all but the following. I sign Anderson as well as Carter. I don't sign Branch or Iheadabu unless they want to take contracts that keep them out of the top 51.
b. additional FAs - As much as I'd like it, I can't see the Pats using all that capital on one guy just too much risk, and almost impossible for the player to play up to the value of the contract. Very hard to see us sign Williams and do anything else in FA. Wouldn't it be better to look for another Vrabel/Ninkovich....like Manny Lawson, just as an example.

I'm OK with adding a WR, but wouldn't Brayon Edwards match Meacham's physical skills for a lot less. Both have similar clouded pasts, I'm also OK with Lloyd, but only if he comes in to replace Branch's snaps

I like Richard Marshall, you like Babineaux - Tomatoes, tomahtoes, take the guy who you think is the best cover guy. A guy who can actually get to the sidelines on deep routes. The key is to at least get ONE. I want to add some veteran presence to this very young secondary besides upgrading the safety position.

Thanks again for all your detailed work. I await your comments

 

[b72s]

Do you think BB visit to nebraska has the notion of dennard CB late 1st hopefully second round???

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

As always, unbelievable job Brother Wilfork! Transcendent work ethic.

I love the last 4 draftees! No comment on the first 7 though...

It pains me to say this. You failed to draft all three of my binkies and consequently do not receive the Merril Hoge's Tie Knot FACTOR BACK SEAL OF APPROVAL.

If we draft Jeffery I'm putting ALL my money into Dunkin Donuts and Pizzeria Regina stocks!!!

Also I'm sure you hacked into my computer and stole Bethel and Marrow.

 

[jsull87]

Free Agent Signings

DE/OLB- Mario Williams- 6yrs $80mil ($38.5mil Guaranteed, $17.5mil Signing Bonus)
This is obviously the big move of the offseason, which some will agree with, some disagree. I would make Williams a significant offer, and 6yrs $80mil is probably the highest I would go. If he is willing to take that to win a few rings, I would take him in a heartbeat. The first 3 years are all guaranteed, with a $17.5mil signing bonus. Obviously this is just a theoretical deal, but I think it could work.

WR- Robert Meachem- 3yrs $9mil ($2.25mil Signing Bonus)
I have had Brandon Lloyd to the Pats for a long time, but it seems it may make too much sense, so I thought I would shake things up a bit and sign Meachem instead. I like both, so I would be happy with either. Meachem would likely be cheaper, and because of the lower than expected cap and depth in free agency, I think he will come at a reasonable price. He would be the deep threat many here have been obsessing about, and should be a solid contributor.

S- Jordan Babineaux- 2yrs $2.5mil ($500,000 Signing Bonus)
This is my favourite FA safety this year. Babineaux is a really solid S, who is good against the pass and run. His strength is his ability covering over the top on deep routes, which has really been a weakness of the Pats secondary. He has also received the nickname “Big Play Babs” because of his knack of making big plays at key times (just ask the Cowboys). He should come cheap and would be a good veteran presence in the secondary to rotate with Chung and McCourty.

Re-sign
BenJarvus Green-Ellis- 3yrs $6mil ($1.5mil signing bonus)
Dan Connolly- 3yrs $4.5mil ($450,000 signing bonus)
Matthew Slater- 4yrs $4mil ($1mil signing bonus)
Andre Carter- 1yr $1.75mil ($500,000 roster bonus)
Kyle Love- ERFA Minimum $540,000 (3yr $4.5mil extension starting 2013)
Deion Branch- Vet Minimum
James Ihedigbo- Vet Minimum
Dorin ****erson- Minimum


Projected Roster
QB- Brady, Mallet
RB- BJGE, Woodhead, Ridley, Vereen
TE- Gronk, Hernandez, ****erson
WR- Welker, Jeffery, Meachem, Criner, Branch
OT- Light, Vollmer, Solder, Cannon
OG- Mankins, Waters, Brooks
C- Connolly, Blake
Offense- 23

DL- Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Still, Brace, Pryor, Anunoby (token UDFA)
DE/OLB- Williams, Upshaw, Ninkovich, Carter
ILB- Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Acho
CB- Dowling, Johnson, Arrington, Moore, Bethel/Molden/Williams
S- Chung, McCourty, Babineaux, Ihedigbo
Defense-24

K-Gostkowski
P-Mesko
LS- Aiken
ST- Edelman, Slater, Tarpanian
Total 53

PUP/IR
WR- Broyles
DL- Chapman

Salary Cap
*All signing/re-signings are hypothetical contracts I made up

*All rookie contracts are based on the corresponding 2011 draft slotting salaries, accounting for rise in rookie base salary increase

*Any errors or unrealistic numbers, let me know, it’s definitely not perfect

This projected 53 man roster with two PUP/IR and practice squad players totalled $113,954,574 ($112,210,449 top 53 Salary, $976,125 PUP/IR and $768,000 practice squad)

The dead cap for this season after cuts and trades is $12,943,306 (note: Chad Ochocinco and Ryan Wendell cut after June 1 to spread the dead cap over 2 seasons).

Total Cap used for 2012- $126,897,880

The Salary cap for the 2012 season is $120.6million. Assuming the Pats use all of the available rollover from the 2011 season, that adds $6,668,877 taking the total to $127,268,877

This only leaves $370,997 in free cap space for injuries and insurance. This obviously isn’t enough and is an unrealistic amount of space to be comfortable with going into the season. However, this is without any restructuring and having Welker play out the season on the franchise tag. You could save $4mil by restructuring Brady, but it’s a trade off with his last 2 season’s going over $20mil. Ideally you sign Welker long term, reduce his cap hit for 2012 to around $7mil, and give yourself about $3mil to play with for injuries. This number also assumes that Chapman and Broyles start the year on IR or PUP. If they are healthy and can beat out some of the Vets on the roster (Branch and Brace?) that could easily save another $1.5mil+ in cap space.

Post-Combine 2012 Patriots Mock (Salary Cap)


I also quickly looked at the 2013 cap, and the potential impact some of these signings could have in the future. With 41 guys on the hypothetical roster, the projected cap is $93,558,316 with dead cap of $1,733,334. Assuming Light, Waters and Carter retire, and the cap increases slightly ($123mil?), that would leave about $25-28mil for the final 12 spots. Assuming half of those are taken up by draft picks/UDFA’s ($5mil), that would leave about $20mil to retain our key free agents (Welker, Chung, Vollmer, Arrington, Woodhead, Brace, Pryor, Ihedigbo) to fill the final spots. So it looks like we are in pretty good shape going forward. 2014 looks like the big year with a number of key FA’s and rising cap hits for vets. But that is also the season the cap is expected to explode, so it will be interesting to see how everything works out.

Patriots Mock Offseason 2013 Salary Cap

1st of all let me say i love the draft you had (1st 3 picks especially) and really appreciate the work you put into this and the though process behind it.

My only change would be (other than inserting my binkys somewhere in the 4-7th) is i don't think Cunningham is going anywhere. I don't know why i have faith in him but he was a good player as a rookie and i just think he was more a victim of the change in d last year than anything ( is this an excuse for no game time? definately not) But the guys who beat him out in anderson and carter both had 10 sack years so i think it's more a reflection on them than cunningham. Also i would not be signing Mechem in FA as i have the more familiar lloyd in there so this also has a flow on effect of no babinaux (plus i have him resigning) and would be trading the Criner pick for a 2nd in the next draft. So my ending roster would look something like.

QB- Brady, Mallet
RB- BJGE, Woodhead, Ridley, Vereen
TE- Gronk, Hernandez, ****erson
WR- Welker,Lloyd, Jeffery, Branch, Ocho
OT- Light, Vollmer, Solder, Cannon
OG- Mankins, Waters, Brooks
C- Connolly, Blake/Wedel
Offense- 23

DL- Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Still, Brace, Pryor
DE/OLB- Williams, Upshaw, Ninkovich, Carter, Cunningham
ILB- Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Acho
CB- Dowling, Johnson, Arrington, Moore, Bethel/Molden/Williams
S- Chung, McCourty, Babineaux, Ihedigbo
Defense-24

K-Gostkowski
P-Mesko
LS- Aiken
ST- Edelman, Slater, Tarpanian
Total 53

PUP/IR
WR- Broyles
DL- Chapman


One thing i thought about was... imagine if Barron was also available in the late 20's, Trading our 2 2nd's and going up and coming away with Barron, Still and Upshaw in the 1st round.... Now THAT is a pipe dream.

 

[Water Boy]

Great work Mr. Wilfork. Very reasonable 3 round mock. My appetite for predicting the draft or betting on football seems to be waning with each passing year, but I appreciate those who put in the effort.

Here's my thoughts:

I don't see BB using both first round picks this year.

I'd rather see us take my binky Vinny Curry in the 2nd than Upshaw in the 1st

Rather than pay Mario Williams megabucks, I'd rather go into next year with Carter and Anderson and draft a potential stud DE/OLB or pick up another FA DE who can provide youth and depth.

Instead of allocating all of that money to Mario Williams, I'd try and sign Ladarius Webb and there would be plenty of cap money left over to resign BJGE, Connolly, etc.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I don't see the Pats taking Upshaw. He's great at setting the edge and is a good pash rush but limited a bit to a bull rush. His measurables are very similar to Llmar Woodly and Woodly has longer arms. Woodley is also better in space and dropping in coverage.

If Still drops that far I'll be shocked it they don't draft him. He could easily be the next Ty Warren. That said if Brockers drops to the 20's and they don't trade up for him I'll be in the market for a new flat screen. If they were somehow, and I know this is pipe dream city get both of these guys and have a front starting D-Line of Still-Wilfork-Brockers and still have rotationally Love and Diederick that would be pretty nice. I don't know what you can count on from Pryor and Brace at this point.

From a body type comparison, I think Upshaw and Woodly is a good one. And while Woodly may be better in coverage, Upshaw is much better against the run. I've said in previous threads that I haven't seen a DE/OLB prospect that plays the run as well as Upshaw in my time following the draft (which hasn't been very long). He might be limited in coverage, but I think those responsibilities in this system are overblown. Its not like he is going to be asked to run down the field with TE's, he would be asked to drop into shallow zones and cover the flats, where he has shown good instincts at Alabama.

I'm not nearly as high on Brockers as many others on here. He's very raw and risky, although his potential is huge. I'm not saying I wouldn't take him at 27, but with a shot at getting Still at 31, I wouldn't make a trade up for him. I don't see the need for two, 1st round DT/DE picks, because there is some good developmental guys later in the draft.

I love when you guys do this much work to give guys like me all this info. Truly EPIC. Its why I come to the Draft board. Thank you Wilfolk

All that being said, here is what I'm thinking ....at least for today.

1. On the first round, Seattle wouldn't have to jump the Dolphins since before the draft they would have signed Flynn, who is a no brainer in Miami now that it looks like Manning is going elsewhere.

I agree that Flynn is likely to go to Miami, but I still think Seattle makes this move up. I don't think they can just sit back and hope their QB falls to them if its a guy they really like. You never know who could move ahead of you, so I think they would be aggressive. And it's not a huge price to pay if you think he can be a top QB which you better think if you draft him in the top 15.

2. The more I think on it, the more I believe that BB will continue frustrating Pats fans by NOT drafting a DE/OLB in the first round. There are just too many examples that the best value in finding the OLB that fits what BB wants, is in finding someone who is already 4 or 5 years into the transition from college DE to 3-4 OLB....in the BB system.. Much easier to evaluate than from the draft which is all a crap shoot, and even if you finally guess right, by the time you start to get some production from your asset, he's ready for FA. Pick one in the draft sure, but not that high.

I would normally agree with you because of the difficulty projecting DE's to OLB's. But I think Upshaw is different because he isn't a conversion guy. He plays the position in a similar system at Alabama, and he has thrived in it. He might not have the ideal height or length, but I think he certainly has the skill set and instincts for the position.

So as tempting as it is, I tihnk the Pats are best served passing on Upshaw and if we have to draft a conversion OLB as a development player, its best to do it in round 2 or below. So if the draft went exactly as you set it up, I'd draft Still at 27 and Gilmore at 31, a much better choice IMHO than Robinson. Aren't you tired of watching a decade of Patriot mini CB's have good coverage on bigger WRs only to be out-physicaled when the ball came. Gilmore is plenty fast enough.

I'm a big fan of Gilmore, and I think he would be a good fit here. If they took him early instead of Trumaine Johnson a bit later I would have no problem with it.

3. You seem to have done your FA's without thought to the draft. Why draft Jefferies AND Criner when went out in FA to pick up Lloyd or Meacham - Adding 3 WRs is massive overkill and at best only 2 make the roster. Plus to make matter worse only Meacham is a true "deep threat" and has had a VERY mixed career with NO.

So, if I keep to your draft order, I pass on Jeffery and get Chandler Jones. A much better value as a OLB/DE prospect with numbers similar to Ingram's and Upshaw's

I really think we need to add 3 contributing WR to this team because I think we relied too heavily on our TE's this year. We saw in the Super Bowl when Gronk was ineffective that the offense really struggled. I think that showed the lack of WR targets more than depth at TE. I prefer lloyd to Meachem, but everyone is predicting that so I wanted to shake it up a little. Either guy I would be happy with as long as they don't cost too much. With the draft picks, I think Jeffery and Criner both offer something very different than each other and what we already have on the roster. Jeffery gives you the big, physical target on the outside with unbelievable hands. He would almost be the Gronkowski version of WR's when once Brady gets his trust, he can just throw it up and Jeffery will go get it. He also offers a huge catch radius, which none of the WR's currently on the roster have.

Criner to me is a perfect fit for the system. He runs crisp, precise and consistent routes, uses his body well and is fantastic after the catch. As soon as I saw him against USC in 2010 I though this guy is perfect for the Patriots. While some of his skills may overlap with Meachem, Lloyd or Jeffery, he can also offer something very different. He has very good lateral agility with the ball in his hands, and is explosive after the catch.

While Meachem may be the only true "deep threat" from a speed perspective, both Jeffery and Criner have proven to be very effective deep threats in other ways. Both guys have good size and elite body control, which allows them to track the ball well and attack it down the field. I think their physicality helps them because unlike a pure speed guy, who if under-thrown will likely end in and INT, Jeffery and Criner both offer a bigger target down field, and even if they don't come down with it, will break up the pass so the defender can't either.

4.I'm fine with your trade at the end of the 2nd - but in my fantasy world, I have solved my FS needs by getting Richard Marshall, who played FS for the Cardinals for most of last season, but do want a young S to develop. Johnson and Iloka are intriguing options but I prefer Markell Martin as that developmental player. He has more speed and seems to be better in coverage

I like Richard Marshall, but I have 2 concerns. First I think Arizona will do everything in their power to keep him, because their Defensive Coordinator loves him. So if they can clear some cap space, they will absolutely throw money at him. My second concern is if he does make it to the open market, he will require a big contract. Even with a lower than expected cap, I think a lot of these 2nd tier guys will be over-payed, and with a weak FA and draft safety class, I can see a guy like Marshall getting a lot more than I would be comfortable paying. If he would come cheap though, I would happily take him.

6. On your trades. I can't understand the desire to essentially dump Cunningham. in 2010 he played remarkably well for a rookie OLB, who was injured all traiining camp, and was forced to take a lot of snaps as an OLB. Granted he had a horrible year last season, but was hurt for most of it. I just don't understand why fans who SHOULD understand how long it takes to learn and have an impact at that position would be so anxious to dump a player like Cunningham after a decent rookie year, and an injury plagued second.

I have absolutely no faith in Cunningham going forward. I think simply, if he was good enough, he would have gotten onto the field. But an even bigger concern than that was what I was hearing about him in the locker room. From what I heard about him he seemed like an outsider and didn't really belong. I can't remember where I heard it (might have been PFW in Progress), but I remember someone talking about the way he would leave straight after practice. While everyone else would hang around in the locker room for a while and wait for golf carts to take them to the car park. Cunningham would get changed, leave straight away and walk to his car. This is a huge concern for me when a guy in the middle of the season is already on the outside.

No one is going to give us a 3rd for Hoyer....or a 4th....or a 5th....or a 6th. The Pats may know his value, but the FA QB market is so deep with players with tons of film and some success on them, giving up draft picks for a player who has virtually none makes no sense. I wish and hope, I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

I'm conflicted on Hoyer's value. On one hand he was an UDFA, hasn't played a meaningful snap and is a complete unknown. Then you get guys like Michael Lombardi come out and say if he got the job with the 49ers he would have traded for Hoyer to be his starting QB. So there is probably some team around the league that likes him. He has the aura of being coached by BB and backing up Brady, and he was a highly regarded prospect before his senior year. I think if any team is going to trade for Hoyer it will be Cleveland. I think he fits their system, he would challenge Colt McCoy and I think he is a better option than any of the QB's in rounds 2 or 3 (outside of Weeden).

 

[Wilfork#75]

8. As to your FA's -
a. Our own - Agree with all but the following. I sign Anderson as well as Carter. I don't sign Branch or Iheadabu unless they want to take contracts that keep them out of the top 51.

b. additional FAs - As much as I'd like it, I can't see the Pats using all that capital on one guy just too much risk, and almost impossible for the player to play up to the value of the contract. Very hard to see us sign Williams and do anything else in FA. Wouldn't it be better to look for another Vrabel/Ninkovich....like Manny Lawson, just as an example.

I'm OK with adding a WR, but wouldn't Brayon Edwards match Meacham's physical skills for a lot less. Both have similar clouded pasts, I'm also OK with Lloyd, but only if he comes in to replace Branch's snaps

I like Richard Marshall, you like Babineaux - Tomatoes, tomahtoes, take the guy who you think is the best cover guy. A guy who can actually get to the sidelines on deep routes. The key is to at least get ONE. I want to add some veteran presence to this very young secondary besides upgrading the safety position.

Thanks again for all your detailed work. I await your comments

I like Anderson, but I simply couldn't fit him under the cap. It was too close as it is, while only signing 3 FA's, and that was with Mario's cap hit only being $8mil for 2012. A long term deal for Welker and some restructuring for Brady and Wilfork could clear some extra cap room to make an Anderson signing possible (although I wouldn't touch the Mankins contract because I want to get rid of him as soon as possible).

Branch and Ihedigbo I would only bring back at the minimum. They could easily be replaced by any decent JAG or UDFA. I actually think Branch's best value to the Pats would be as a shadow roster guy. Bring him to camp, he doesn't make the 53, semi-retires and stays in shape in case of injury. Would he go for this? I don't know.

I've said previously that I think Mario could be the perfect storm of talent, age, versatility and potentially value. If he signs here it will be for a reasonable amount of money, taking some discount to win. He will receive larger offers in FA, but if he signs here its because he want's a ring. I also think long term that Mario will be much better value than a lot of the 2nd tier free agents. I can see guys like Cortland Finnegan or Kamerion Wimbley getting $8million a year, and Vincent Jackson getting $10mil+ a year, so $12-13 for Mario I think is reasonable. Also being a long term deal unlike some of the mid level guys, Mario's contract can be back-loaded, past the Mankins, Wilfork and possibly Brady's contracts and into the higher cap in 2014 and beyond. Also with most of the guaranteed money coming in the first 3 years, he can easily be cut, re-structured or extended later on, depending on his level of play.

Last year I might have taken a shot at Braylon Edwards, now he just carries too much baggage. To be honest I would have signed Randy Moss before Braylon Edwards (not that I wan't Moss in any way). I just don't see him working out in this locker room.

I like Babineaux because I think he could come really cheap. While I think the 2nd tier guys will be overpayed, I think the lower end guys will be great value. A lot of teams will be trying to fill out their rosters with minimum guys, so there should be some decent players at good prices. It will be interesting to see who else will become available before the start of free agency because the cap situation seems a little different to what many expected.

Thanks for your input guys.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Do you think BB visit to nebraska has the notion of dennard CB late 1st hopefully second round???

I don't read anything into what BB does because its a useless exercise. I do like Dennard in the 2nd round though. Some project him to safety, but I like him as a physical, press-man CB. Although he made some mistakes, I like the way he was physical against Alshon Jeffery in the Bowl Game. With some coaching he can be a very good CB.

As always, unbelievable job Brother Wilfork! Transcendent work ethic.

I love the last 4 draftees! No comment on the first 7 though...

It pains me to say this. You failed to draft all three of my binkies and consequently do not receive the Merril Hoge's Tie Knot FACTOR BACK SEAL OF APPROVAL.

If we draft Jeffery I'm putting ALL my money into Dunkin Donuts and Pizzeria Regina stocks!!!

Also I'm sure you hacked into my computer and stole Bethel and Marrow.

Thanks Buddy.

I will try to fit your Binkies into my next mock. I was tempted to go with Fleming ahead of Johnson at 68, but Johnson's size won out. I was also going to put Childs in there as well, but I though 4 WR would be overkill. I still don't think Barron will make it too us so he wasn't really an option either.

1st of all let me say i love the draft you had (1st 3 picks especially) and really appreciate the work you put into this and the though process behind it.

...

One thing i thought about was... imagine if Barron was also available in the late 20's, Trading our 2 2nd's and going up and coming away with Barron, Still and Upshaw in the 1st round.... Now THAT is a pipe dream.

Thanks buddy. I would definitely be happy with your revised mock.

On Barron, if he was there at the bottom of round 1 I would definitely consider moving up to get him. Coming out of day 1 with Upshaw, Still and Barron would be a dream. Unfortunately, even with his injury I still don't think he falls. There are too many teams in the late teens/early 20's that need help at safety to pass him up. And as much as it pains me, I think the Jets will be the ones to take the risk on him. I think he would be a beast next to Chung though.

Great work Mr. Wilfork. Very reasonable 3 round mock. My appetite for predicting the draft or betting on football seems to be waning with each passing year, but I appreciate those who put in the effort.

Here's my thoughts:

I don't see BB using both first round picks this year.

I'd rather see us take my binky Vinny Curry in the 2nd than Upshaw in the 1st

Rather than pay Mario Williams megabucks, I'd rather go into next year with Carter and Anderson and draft a potential stud DE/OLB or pick up another FA DE who can provide youth and depth.

Instead of allocating all of that money to Mario Williams, I'd try and sign Ladarius Webb and there would be plenty of cap money left over to resign BJGE, Connolly, etc.

I know how you feel, my interest in the draft was falling too. That was until the Redskins traded up and I wanted to explore the impact this would have on the rest of the draft, especially Cleveland at 4. Once I started that I just kept going for the rest of the 1st round (and 2nd, and 3rd) and then the entire Pats mock. The Salary cap stuff is what I found more interesting, especially with the lower than expected cap this season and the rollover allowed from 2011.

I agree that its hard to see BB using both 1st round picks this year, but I just had a really tough time projecting a trade there. It doesn't seem like there are many players available at the end of round 1 that would warrant a big trade up from a team. And I like Upshaw and Still too much to make a smaller trade down. I don't think this is a year a team will offer a 2nd and future 1st for a late 1st round pick. it could happen, I just don't see who they would move up for.

My biggest problem with Ladarius Webb (and Mike Wallace) is that while their total contract might be less than Mario, the first year I believe will be similar, if not higher than Mario's. With Webb it's not just a case of giving up the 1st round pick, you have to offer a contract that the Raven's can't match. To do that you need to heavily load the front end, while with Mario you load the back end. This would mean it would be more difficult to sign the mid level guys like Anderson and Connolly, because you can't spread out the money like you would with a true FA. I would happily give up a 1st round pick for Webb, but the issue would be giving him a contract that the Ravens can't match.

Cheers Guys

 

[Off The Grid]

My GOD, I do love Brother Wilfork's MasterPieces!! :rocker: