Pats Should Keep Garoppolo Through 2017

[Soul_Survivor88]

Now you're down to trying to massage the closest thing to an exception, which involved a top 10 all-time QB replacing a top 10 all-time QB. Not that there's anything wrong with you trying to do that, but it really does serve to highlight the long odds here.

Lol, ya I know...that'd be like catching lightning in a bottle, twice!

But I'm not gonna make any predictions about Jimmy becoming the next Steve Young....it's far too early. I just like what I've seen from him. And I think he's worth holding onto for another season. The Pats can afford to wait another year....draft pick or no draft pick, that's the the wisest to do!

 

[Gronk]

Young and the Niners had to get through Dallas in order to get to the Super Bowl, and when they finally did, they easily dismantled the team from the opposing conference, back when the AFC was notoriously weak.

Fortunately, the Patriots aren't facing any emerging powerhouse in the AFC any time soon, and neither Jimmy nor Brady is gonna be traded to an AFC team... I hope lol

Wait so what's the point? Sucks for them that they had to play the best team in the NFCCG, but that's how it worked out. Montana and the Niners had to get through the mid-80's Bears, Giants, and Redskins to get to their 3 Super Bowls during the same era of notoriously weak AFC teams ('84-'96, 13 straight NFC winners). Why is that an excuse for Young winning less rather than bonus points in the column of Montana's Niner run?

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Wait so what's the point? Sucks for them that they had to play the best team in the NFCCG, but that's how it worked out. Montana and the Niners had to get through the mid-80's Bears, Giants, and Redskins to get to their 3 Super Bowls during the same era of notoriously weak AFC teams ('84-'96, 13 straight NFC winners). Why is that an excuse for Young winning less rather than bonus points in the column of Montana's Niner run?

It would be a mistake to judge Young solely off his one Super Bowl appearance. In the span of three seasons (1992 to 1995) he overcame a tumultous and choatic situation in San Francisco (when his future on the team was still in doubt) and despite that, Young led the 49ers to three consecutive NFC title games, while winning League MVP honors twice! Though Dallas defeated him twice, credit him nonetheless for helping his team finally get over the hump and winning a Super Bowl when he finally got there.

Granted, I would never put Young on the same level as Montanna...but you could've just easily have said the same for all quarterbacks back then. Montanna was simply peerless, and so is Brady. The question isn't who can win you the same number of Super Bowls....it's deciding how best to sustain contention and compete for future titles. You can certainly finish out with the aging, legendary veteran (the Dolphins tried did that w/ Marino) but when you have the opportunity to invest in young, promising talent, at football's most important position, you should try to retain that as long as you need to, even if it's just for another season.

The 49ers nearly traded Young, but decided to keep him at the last second. And it worked out well for them in the end.

 

[Gronk]

It would be a mistake to judge Young solely off his one Super Bowl appearance. In the span of three seasons (1992 to 1995) he overcame a tumultous and choatic situation in San Francisco (when his future on the team was still in doubt) and despite that, Young led the 49ers to three consecutive NFC title games, while winning League MVP honors twice! Though Dallas defeated him twice, credit him nonetheless for helping his team finally get over the hump and winning a Super Bowl when he finally got there.

Granted, I would never put Young on the same level as Montanna...but you could've just easily have said the same for all quarterbacks back then. Montanna was simply peerless, and so is Brady. The question isn't who can win you the same number of Super Bowls....it's deciding how best to sustain contention and compete for future titles. You can certainly finish out with the aging, legendary veteran (the Dolphins tried did that w/ Marino) but when you have the opportunity to invest in young, promising talent, at football's most important position, you should try to retain that as long as you need to, even if it's just for another season.

The 49ers nearly traded Young, but decided to keep him at the last second. And it worked out well for them in the end.

It did work out well for them. And they were smart to plan ahead, because Montana's last injury-free season was 1983. But comparing any of these situations to what's going in NE fails on almost every comparative level except for biological age of the older QB involved.

I give Young credit for what he did - absolutely. His future in SF was only in doubt in the '91-'92 offseason. Not a tumultuous 1992 to 1995 - they were clearly the 2nd/3rd best team in the league during that time and like you say he won 2 MVPs. But he still only got the job because of injury. If Montana didn't get his elbow spiked in the '90 NFCCG and they beat the Giants and then Bills, Young is gone. That's not "deciding to sustain"...it's happenstance. They were fortunate to have realized Montana was an injury risk, but that was only identifying the obvious facts in front of them.

The best argument for a sooner-than-later Garoppolo future in NE was that he came out and slaughtered the first 4 games and made everyone second-guess TB12 (always a bad idea, I will note). But he couldn't even make it to the 2nd half of game 2.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

It did work out well for them. And they were smart to plan ahead, because Montana's last injury-free season was 1983. But comparing any of these situations to what's going in NE fails on almost every comparative level except for biological age of the older QB involved.

I give Young credit for what he did - absolutely. His future in SF was only in doubt in the '91-'92 offseason. Not a tumultuous 1992 to 1995 - they were clearly the 2nd/3rd best team in the league during that time and like you say he won 2 MVPs. But he still only got the job because of injury. If Montana didn't get his elbow spiked in the '90 NFCCG and they beat the Giants and then Bills, Young is gone. That's not "deciding to sustain"...it's happenstance. They were fortunate to have realized Montana was an injury risk, but that was only identifying the obvious facts in front of them.

The best argument for a sooner-than-later Garoppolo future in NE was that he came out and slaughtered the first 4 games and made everyone second-guess TB12 (always a bad idea, I will note). But he couldn't even make it to the 2nd half of game 2.

All fine points. Brady's current health and injury situation isn't what Montanna's was, but for what it's worth, his suspension has given us the opportunity to see what Jimmy is capable of. Garoppolo has shown enough to reliably step into Brady's shoes (should the need ever arise) and continue our offense without needing to make drastic changes to our gameplan. That alone makes him worth holding onto while he's still under contract.

I agree, none of what the 49ers experienced was planned (it was, as you said, necessitated by unforseen events) but for what it's worth, Deflategate has opened up a door for Jimmy, and he's taken every advantage of it, while giving us a glimpse of what the future might look like.

In the end, I stand by the judgement of the coaches and staff who have trained Garoppolo and see him up close everyday. If they decide to trade him this offseason, then it will be a mark of Brady's longevity, as well as faith in Jacoby Brissett or anyone else they decide to draft. Otherwise, if the Patriots keep Jimmy for the 2017 season (and allow his trade value to decline as a result) it will tell us how impressed they are with him -- and how much of an asset he is.

We'll just have to wait and see....

 

[Gronk]

All fine points. Brady's current health and injury situation isn't what Montanna's was, but for what it's worth, his suspension has given us the opportunity to see what Jimmy is capable of. Garoppolo has shown enough to reliably step into Brady's shoes (should the need ever arise) and continue our offense without needing to make drastic changes to our gameplan. That alone makes him worth holding onto while he's still under contract.

I agree, none of what the 49ers experienced was planned (it was, as you said, necessitated by unforseen events) but for what it's worth, Deflategate has opened up a door for Jimmy, and he's taken every advantage of it, while giving us a glimpse of what the future might look like.

In the end, I stand by the judgement of the coaches and staff who have trained Garoppolo and see him up close everyday. If they decide to trade him this offseason, then it will be a mark of Brady's longevity, as well as faith in Jacoby Brissett or anyone else they decide to draft. Otherwise, if the Patriots keep Jimmy for the 2017 season (and allow his trade value to decline as a result) it will tell us how impressed they are with him -- and how much of an asset he is.

We'll just have to wait and see....

I think the bolded is wildly optimistic based on just 5 quarters of football, but it's better than having a guy that threw 5 INTs and caused you to lose, of course. If I'm to believe fully in what I've seen from JG as the future, then the future is the guy who played decent QB at Arizona and won a game, and great QB for a half against Miami before getting hurt. All of that is super-positive given that it's his first real playing time, yes.

But why shouldn't I take the injury issue with as much weight as I take the quality of play? We talk about Gronk - who is established as the pre-eminent skill position player in the NFL - as if he is a walking casualty case because he's missed 15 games in 6 years. But JG can't make it to start #3 and not only is he the future QB, we should cut the Greatest Player in NFL History to make room for him. I just have to call ******** on the whole situation, because something stinks. And I wipe until the paper's clean.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I get that fans love these discussions but it's impossible to discuss keeping or trading Jimmy without knowing the deal offered and the possible draft picks that might be available with those picks based on that teams probable record. Does Jimmy's future value exceed that of Myles Garrett or Malik Mcdowell, Carl Lawson, Derek Barnett ... to name just a few or does Jimmy represent more upside to a team than Deshone Kizer, Deshaun Watson, Brad Kaaya

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

I think the bolded is wildly optimistic based on just 5 quarters of football, but it's better than having a guy that threw 5 INTs and caused you to lose, of course. If I'm to believe fully in what I've seen from JG as the future, then the future is the guy who played decent QB at Arizona and won a game, and great QB for a half against Miami before getting hurt. All of that is super-positive given that it's his first real playing time, yes.

But why shouldn't I take the injury issue with as much weight as I take the quality of play? We talk about Gronk - who is established as the pre-eminent skill position player in the NFL - as if he is a walking casualty case because he's missed 15 games in 6 years. But JG can't make it to start #3 and not only is he the future QB, we should cut the Greatest Player in NFL History to make room for him. I just have to call ******** on the whole situation, because something stinks. And I wipe until the paper's clean.

Of course! But that's kinda drawing a strawman. No rational person would ever suggest cutting Brady and letting Garoppolo play out the season.

If the team is truly impressed with what Jimmy's done, then it's far more likely he's kept under contract for another year. If by 2018, Brady continues to defy the odds and play the way he does, then you franchise tag Jimmy and trade him for whatever he's worth by then.

That would be the middle ground between trading him right away (this upcoming offseason) and forcing Brady to leave prematurely.

 

[XLIX]

Young and the Niners had to get through Dallas in order to get to the Super Bowl, and when they finally did, they easily dismantled the team from the opposing conference, back when the AFC was notoriously weak.

Fortunately, the Patriots aren't facing any emerging powerhouse in the AFC any time soon, and neither Jimmy nor Brady is gonna be traded to an AFC team... I hope lol

We have no idea who might be an emerging AFC powerhouse within the next year or two.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Here's what I'm rooting for:

When the time comes, the transition is gracious and without rancor - whoever that transition is to.

Here is my Pats wet-dream storybook transition, speaking of long odds.

Brady wins ring number 5 this season and ring number 6 next season. Then he decides to go out on top and save orphans or something. Then Jimmy G turns out to be the Second Coming. Patriots come to London to play, British forces flee across the channel. That sort of thing.

Here are the problems with the above scenario:
1) TFB would want #7 - GOD LOVE HIM! Getting #5 and 6 would certainly not be signs of "sucking."
2) Garoppolo is relatively unproven, possibly made of glass, and difficult to spell.
3) The tightest number for a QB is and always has been 12. We might be screwed here. We won't ever let anybody wear 12 again.
4) There is no upside for the foreseeable future in replacing Brady, because the ceiling is so high.

Here is my conclusion:

Any year that TFB plays QB, we are in Super Bowl contention. That is undeniable. Think back to the long years of wishing we would ever win a Super Bowl. Think back to the mid-90s when we were just praying (secretly) that we made a go of it against the Packers instead of replaying our last Big Game, vs. the Bears. Think of the pure rarity of a SB appearance, never mind a SB win, with any QB in this team's history.

One more ring under Brady could well be worth the entire upside of Garoppolo's career.

Ergo, we have to wait until, as he himself says, he starts to suck.

Unfortunately, the way these things go, I think he'll think he sucks at a different point from when BB and company think that.

OTOH, any "given" thus far has had a habit of being contravened in this 15-year run. First it was "nobody gets the gigantic contract except Brady," until Seymour. Then it was modified to "well, mostly." Then it was "BB makes the calls and Kraft never intervenes," until Troy Brown. Then it was modified to "Well, general rule, Kraft won't meddle."

Maybe they'll shock us with "The logic of the business of football dictates a sub-optimal parting one day."

In any event, that day is not today, or any time soon from what we've all seen. Brady was not sidelined with a serious injury - he was sidelined with a butthole league vendetta.

Garoppolo was not unjustly pulled when he could have gone. He was sidelined with a serious injury.

Ya gotta look at what is, not what you wish it was. Garoppolo could be our Tommy Maddox. Remember him? Exactly. We're talking the Dexys Midnight Runners of quarterbacks. Could be Jimmy - just the truth folks, hope it's not, hope this somehow ends up with a passing of the baton... but honestly, I don't see it happening. I look at Jimmy G right now as the best damn insurance policy I can imagine, maybe a draft pick, and minority possibility of a baton-pass.

Even less certain is that 1) the baton would be passed and 2) we would be happy a year later.

But what do I know... when they let Drew go I was like, "We might have just cut the wrong QB"

 

[chumpchange]

I think the bolded is wildly optimistic based on just 5 quarters of football, but it's better than having a guy that threw 5 INTs and caused you to lose, of course. If I'm to believe fully in what I've seen from JG as the future, then the future is the guy who played decent QB at Arizona and won a game, and great QB for a half against Miami before getting hurt. All of that is super-positive given that it's his first real playing time, yes.

But why shouldn't I take the injury issue with as much weight as I take the quality of play? We talk about Gronk - who is established as the pre-eminent skill position player in the NFL - as if he is a walking casualty case because he's missed 15 games in 6 years. But JG can't make it to start #3 and not only is he the future QB, we should cut the Greatest Player in NFL History to make room for him. I just have to call ******** on the whole situation, because something stinks. And I wipe until the paper's clean.

Agree completely. Everybody thinks their team's backup quarterback is a Hall of Famer.

 

[chumpchange]

Stating that JAG didn't **** himself after five quarters is an outrageous misrepresentation of his play. Did you even watch the games? He was incredible. I trust that Bill can evaluate his skill level a bit better than you. Yours is the sort of thinking that had the Celtics hold on to the Big Three until they were dead and buried and forced us into two decades of ineptitude.

Luckily for us, Bill's definition of long term is more than 20 months. Maybe you don't remember what it was like to be the Bills or the Dolphins, but I do. I don't want to go back there.

He was very good, but I still don't get the hysteria over him after 5 quarters. The Cardinals, though highly touted at the time we played them, are now 1-2 and in last place in their division. And Miami is also in last place in their division at 1-3. And he goes down to injury after not even two full games? And can't play on the same injury Brady had and played through? I'm just not catching what people are basing these assumptions of Jimmy's brilliance on.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

He was very good, but I still don't get the hysteria over him after 5 quarters. The Cardinals, though highly touted at the time we played them, are now 1-2 and in last place in their division. And Miami is also in last place in their division at 1-3. And he goes down to injury after not even two full games? And can't play on the same injury Brady had and played through? I'm just not catching what people are basing these assumptions of Jimmy's brilliance on.

Conflation of hope with knowledge. Given the subject matter - the future, in sports fandom no less - you can forgive this natural habit of mind.

Once again: 5 years from now we might look back and say "Ah ha, we always knew Jimmy was as good as Brady, good thing we did x, y, and z..."

But the probability is that we don't. Nobody has accurately made that statement to date about any other QB in history.

But, there's another probability curve related to Brady's inevitable eventual decline.

The mind boggles.

 

[mosslost]

There is an argument to be made that Brady is an anomaly. Many have said that he seems to get better as he ages. That his strengths are mental for the most part. That he is getting better the longer he plays. Barring injury or a reverse of this trend I think there is significant risk to "moving on" from Brady. There is no question that Jimmy G looked special and far better than probably any of us thought he would. The Patriots cannot simply ignore that fact. However, I am beginning to think Brady, because of the fact that he is getting better not worse, perhaps even due to longevity and experience, could possibly play at GOAT levels improving for a lot longer. Put it this way, if he does, it will an anomaly of epic proportions that I would not want the Patriots to miss out on.

 

[mosslost]

Lol, ya I know...that'd be like catching lightning in a bottle, twice!

But I'm not gonna make any predictions about Jimmy becoming the next Steve Young....it's far too early. I just like what I've seen from him. And I think he's worth holding onto for another season. The Pats can afford to wait another year....draft pick or no draft pick, that's the the wisest to do!

Young was great true, but he only won one ring, with a very stacked team.

 

[mosslost]

All fine points. Brady's current health and injury situation isn't what Montanna's was, but for what it's worth, his suspension has given us the opportunity to see what Jimmy is capable of. Garoppolo has shown enough to reliably step into Brady's shoes (should the need ever arise) and continue our offense without needing to make drastic changes to our gameplan. That alone makes him worth holding onto while he's still under contract.

I agree, none of what the 49ers experienced was planned (it was, as you said, necessitated by unforseen events) but for what it's worth, Deflategate has opened up a door for Jimmy, and he's taken every advantage of it, while giving us a glimpse of what the future might look like.

In the end, I stand by the judgement of the coaches and staff who have trained Garoppolo and see him up close everyday. If they decide to trade him this offseason, then it will be a mark of Brady's longevity, as well as faith in Jacoby Brissett or anyone else they decide to draft. Otherwise, if the Patriots keep Jimmy for the 2017 season (and allow his trade value to decline as a result) it will tell us how impressed they are with him -- and how much of an asset he is.

We'll just have to wait and see....

>>>Garoppolo has shown enough to reliably step into Brady's shoes (should the need ever arise)

The need was there today and he is lost to injury. I think the fact that he already couldn't stay on the field is significant

 

[Gallo]

It's a really tough decision. On one hand, he looks extremely promising. On the other hand, he is a virtual goner already, unless Brady is somehow out of the picture. If Brady is healthy and somebody doesn't mind-controls him into retiring, he is playing - at the very minimum - two more seasons, including this one. They obviously wouldn't extend Garappolo for serious money based on three regular season games, so what's left in that scenario? They let him go for nothing. Ergo... Regardless of how much it stings, you guys have to trade the guy at some point. Though I am no expert on the CBA, so I could easily miss something.

 

[mgteich]

They obviously wouldn't extend Garappolo for serious money based on three regular season games, so what's left in that scenario? They let him go for nothing. Ergo... Regardless of how much it stings, you guys have to trade the guy at some point. Though I am no expert on the CBA, so I could easily miss something.

So, the patriots should NOT give serious money after three regular season games, but other teams will give us serious compensation?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

They obviously wouldn't extend Garappolo for serious money based on three regular season games, so what's left in that scenario?

They're not just making decisions based on game tape, but also on the vast amount of experience they have with players that we don't see.

 

[Kdo5]

Unless Brady gets hurt or falls into decline over the next two seasons, I'd say JG is a goner. If he hadn't been hurt we might have a better judgement of him out of four full games and his trade value would probably be higher.

If JG stays he can't expect big money or immideate playing time unless, as I said, something happens to Brady.