Pats offering #23 & #47 to Jax @ #8 According to Peter King

[mayoclinic]

Where do you come up with this stuff? lol

Stop!

Do you HONESTLY think all the GM's who've known they were picking in the top 5 let alone top 8 just realized know that "OMG Curry doesn't rush the passer, we can't take him this high"? He's been considered the safest pick from DAY ONE. He's the highest rated player by BOTH Myock and Kiper.

Aaron Curry will NOT get past the Seattle Seahawks at #4.

Where do I get this from? Obviously, I'm guestimating the percentages. But if you are looking for support that Curry could fall past #4 then you should read all of the threads on this board. Almost every major draftnik has suggested that Aaron Curry could fall a bit. Some have him falling as low as #12, which I think is unlikely. Nawrocki thinks he will go to Cleveland at #5. Mel Kiper has him going to Cleveland at #5 in his latest mock.

It doesn't matter that people think Curry is a good player. The issue is economics. The cost of a top 5 pick is prohibitive, and you can't spend that money on an LB unless you think he's a pass rusher.

I said there's about a 10% chance Curry goes #1. That's based on Detroit claiming they have a contract agreement with him, which they are using as a bargaining tool to come to an agreement with Matt Stafford. NO ONE thinks that Detroit prefers Curry, and almost everyone thinks that Stafford and Detroit will come to terms.

I think that KC at #3 will consider Curry, Tyson Jackson and an OT if they can't trade out. I don't see Scott Pioli spending #3 money on an SILB, no matter how talented. Maybe it will happen, but I doubt it.

Seattle traded Julian Peterson in part because they put the franchise tag on Leroy Hill and were concerned about not investing too much money in the LB position. That might make them hesitant about spending #4 money on an LB. They may do it and you may be right, but I wouldn't proclaim it in capitol letters as a "sure thing".

Cleveland is looking at a variety of options at #5. They may go for Sanchez, Raji, Jackson, or Orapko just as easily as for Curry. No one knows what they are going to do.

So yes, I think there's a realistic chance that Curry may fall past #5. And I think you're full of it if you think you have a crystal ball that he's going #4.

 

[BradyManny]

I'm firmly w Mayoclinic on this one. There is a chance - and I will take latch onto any slim hope and keep it w me until tomorrow nite - that Curry drops. The teams at the top of the draft are their for a reason - they suck, and they suck bad - they have needs and for some, Curry may not fill those needs. Just look at Patrick Willis, he is an all-time freak of nature, and he didn't go until #10.

If Curry makes it past KC, he may make it down a few more spots, in which case, I would be rooting hard for the Pats to make a move.

 

[bakes781]

So yes, I think there's a realistic chance that Curry may fall past #5. And I think you're full of it if you think you have a crystal ball that he's going #4.

I said he will not get past 4. I can do the %s like you did, but it ends at #4.

 

[billdog3484]

you got a better idea?

as a player personnel person, i would always look to see what the best deal i could get. I would use the chart as a guideline but in no circumstance would i only make a deal if the chart said this is an even value trade. Say I have 10 guys rated as elite, all grouped together. if i was drafting at #3, I would take a lot less from another team that wanted to move up to #3 in a trade with me if I was only trading down within the top 10. so id have a lower pick in the top 10 but id still get an elite player PLUS whatever draft compensation i was getting in exchange. would it be a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or something, i dont know. but if i feel a player at #3 is similar to a player id be getting at 8, id certainly not need a 2nd PLUS something else. #3 is valued at 2200., and 8 is 1400. #8's second round pick (40) is valued at 500, which would leave me 300 short. I would gladly take the extra second to move down 5 slots and still get my player.


my whole point is, you can use the value chart as a guideline, but in no certain terms would i need to have exact value, nor would i mind losing value according to the arbitrary chart, IF i felt i was still going to get an elite player, plus extra compensation.

obviously, we arent at 3, i am just using this as an example

 

[brabirschorr]

Haven't read the entire thread, but if the Pats did make such a move, I'd be willing to bet they'll immediately move down a few slots from #8 and land another midround pick in 2010

 

[Ungeheuer]

So yes, I think there's a realistic chance that Curry may fall past #5. And I think you're full of it if you think you have a crystal ball that he's going #4.[/QUOTE]

I totally agree. I can see Curry falling very easily. In this league you pay huge money to quarterbacks, pass-rushers, and offensive tackles. Maybe to a pass-rushing DT like Haynesworth, maybe to a wideout, and maybe, in rare cases, to a corner. But unless we're talking about Ray Lewis, you don't pay $10 million a year or even $8 million a year to a non-pass-rushing middle or strongside linebacker.

Glenn Dorsey at the #5 spot last year got a five year deal worth over $51 million. NOBODY wants to pay that kind of money to a volume-tackling linebacker.

I really believe they have to be after either Curry or Maualuga, or one of the tackles -- but most likely Curry. New England is the team most strongly motivated to get Curry; he fills a huge need perfectly, they have the ammo to get him and they probably don't mind spending #8 or #7 pick money.

 

[bakes781]

It doesn't matter that people think Curry is a good player. The issue is economics. The cost of a top 5 pick is prohibitive, and you can't spend that money on an LB unless you think he's a pass rusher.

He's already said he's willing to take less and again why would he be rated #1 for several months now without teams realizing that he isn't a pass rusher? Are you gonna have me believe they JUST NOW came to that conclusion? lol

 

[Patsman]

I just don't think the Pats are going to meander into either the 8 or the 9 because both are just too valuable to give up for the same reasons the Pats want them. For one, from a comp standpoint, there is a significant shift in contract as that seems to be a turning point in the first round when it comes a level of reason compared to that of the first 6-7 picks. Much less $$ committment.

Secondly, there will be some strong demand for at least a couple of the players that fall out of the top 6-7 at this point. At least one hyped up player will be sitting here. Either it will be someone we want and get very lucky with(Curry) or someone that is extremely tradeable and valuable to another organiztion. That could be Sanchez, Jackson or an OL. I do think that whomever KC passes on, Jackson or Curry, falls here.

If they're going to make this happen, it's going to require more than what's been reported on their end.

I do think the Pats want this draft position as it's incredible leverage in this draft and at this point, just feeling out what it's going to take and opening up the lines.

This will be interesting. Given how many picks we have, it makes sense we'd be going after a draft position with such flex/leverage.

 

[BPF]

I'm firmly w Mayoclinic on this one. There is a chance - and I will take latch onto any slim hope and keep it w me until tomorrow nite - that Curry drops. The teams at the top of the draft are their for a reason - they suck, and they suck bad - they have needs and for some, Curry may not fill those needs. Just look at Patrick Willis, he is an all-time freak of nature, and he didn't go until #10.

If Curry makes it past KC, he may make it down a few more spots, in which case, I would be rooting hard for the Pats to make a move.

I agree w/you guys, posted this on main page on this very topic: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...pats-explore-moving-up-page2.html#post1357167

 

[Robdude]

Haven't read the entire thread, but if the Pats did make such a move, I'd be willing to bet they'll immediately move down a few slots from #8 and land another midround pick in 2010

I wouldnt think so mayself. I mean anything is possible but moving up gives them a lot of choices when picking at 8 or 9 and they already have 3 2nd roud picks. I would sacrifice one just to move into the better slot.

 

[mayoclinic]

He's already said he's willing to take less and again why would he be rated #1 for several months now without teams realizing that he isn't a pass rusher? Are you gonna have me believe they JUST NOW came to that conclusion? lol

First of all, I don't think the Pats are targeting 1 player at #8 or 9 right now. I think they would be silly to do so, since there is no sure thing that any one of them will last that long. And the Pats are anything but stupid. I think they have several players of interest, and they are calculating the probabilities and realize that one or more of them are certain to fall.

Second, I think Aaron Curry is somewhere on that list - probably not one of the more likely options, but somewhere. And IF he fell, I think the Pats would be extremely interested.

Third, I think Aaron Curry as a top 5 pick has largely been a figment of the media's imagination. I have never heard a quote from a team or GM suggesting that that would be the case. They're all going to say complementary things about him as a player, but nothing has suggested that any team is fixated on him to the point of spending top 5 money on him. The media jumped on the Curry bandwagon with a vengeance, and talked him up at the combine as the best LB candidate to come out in a decade. He may be that good, but the media doesn't think in terms of economic realities. GM's do, and spending top 5 money on an LB is a very rare thing. It's happened twice this decade, with Lavar Arrington and with AJ Hawk, and in neither case has the player been worth it.

I think every GM in this draft thinks Aaron Curry is a helluva player. And he is. But spending top 5 money on a 3-4 SILB or a 4-3 SAM is crazy. Curry has said he would take a "discount" from Detroit at #1, because that would be much more money than he would otherwise get, but we would be talking somewhere around $60M with $30M guaranteed. He's playing into the Lions hands as a bargaining tool, but no one thinks they will actually take him #1.

I don't see Scott Pioli investing that much money in the LB position. And Seattle has a lot of money tied up in Leroy Hill and Lofa Tatupa. Bringing in a rookie LB making that kind of money is likely to upset their salary structure in a big way. And is Curry really that much of an upgrade over Julian Peterson? Wouldn't they in effect have just used the #4 pick to get Shaun Rodgers?

Again, you may be right and Curry may go top 4. But I don't see it as a certainty by any means.

 

[Synovia]

I think be meant what he said and said what he meant.

Which was that he was comfortable trading up before the draft.

 

[bakes781]

Well I don't think a deal goes down until that team they're trading up with is officially on the clock, because I think they would be targetting a specific player. This is just a feeling out process or smoke from other teams.

I think Aaron Curry as a top 5 pick has largely been a figment of the media's imagination.

I think it's just the opposite. IMO the media is tired of hearing about how Curry is a lock and decided to make up scenarios in which things get shaken up at the top of the draft.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Well I don't think a deal goes down until that team they're trading up with is officially on the clock, because I think they would be targetting a specific player. This is just a feeling out process or smoke from other teams.



I think it's just the opposite. IMO the media is tired of hearing about how Curry is a lock and decided to make up scenarios in which things get shaken up at the top of the draft.

I think all teams explore trade parameters before a draft for various reasons.

However I do believe BB has a player specifically in mind for a trade into the top ten. Not sure who it is, Jackson makes sense.

A lort of people are telling me they heard chatter on sports talk about the Pats and Ayers from Tenn. as well as Jackson. Are the Pats focusing on a play maker at the DL spot?

 

[bakes781]

I think all teams explore trade parameters before a draft for various reasons.

However I do believe BB has a player specifically in mind for a trade into the top ten. Not sure who it is, Jackson makes sense.

A lort of people are telling me they heard chatter on sports talk about the Pats and Ayers from Tenn. as well as Jackson. Are the Pats focusing on a play maker at the DL spot?

I would agree if true that it's likely one of the 2.

 

[mac]

ESPN just had a mock with team beat writers polled. According to the beat writers, Seattle takes Currry at #4, Browns Sanchez at #5 or trade pick to someone who wants the QB, Bengals take Andre Smith at #6, Green Bay would love to draft Raji at #9, Green Bay won't trade, so how does this deal go down? Maybe the Pats take Jackson at #8 if he's their guy, but Jax may hold out for a sweeter deal. And once you get beyond #10, what's the point of a trade?

 

[bakes781]

The "Sanchez Derby" is a clear illustration of what I'm referring to. Do you really think there's suddenly half a dozen teams who have decided they're gonna trade away their draft board for a QB with 16 starts under his belt just days before the draft?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The "Sanchez Derby" is a clear illustration of what I'm referring to. Do you really think there's suddenly half a dozen teams who have decided they're gonna trade away their draft board for a QB with 16 starts under his belt just days before the draft?

These teams are betting on the upside of Sanchez. Which I also think is huge.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The "Sanchez Derby" is a clear illustration of what I'm referring to. Do you really think there's suddenly half a dozen teams who have decided they're gonna trade away their draft board for a QB with 16 starts under his belt just days before the draft?

You're assuming that the draft involves 32 rational actors.

That is by no means the case, as anyone who has watched Al Davis and Daniel Snyder at work knows.

 

[bakes781]

I like Mark Sanchez. But I think if you're the Broncos it's pretty late in the game to be deciding a week before the draft that he's our QB. Yeah they worked him out but McDaniels didn't even make the effort to attend.