Pats/Jags Game Plan, Breakdown ...

[RobertWeathers]

From PatsPulpit

If there’s a weakness to the Jaguars defense, it’s their coverage of tight ends. They rank 1st in DVOA against the top receiver, and 8th and 11th against the rest of the receivers; they rank 20th against tight ends and 15th against running backs.

 

[Mack Herron]

From PatsPulpit

If there’s a weakness to the Jaguars defense, it’s their coverage of tight ends. They rank 1st in DVOA against the top receiver, and 8th and 11th against the rest of the receivers; they rank 20th against tight ends and 15th against running backs.

Heavy sets keep Poluszny on the field where Brady will run him ragged. What SF did.

 

[Wordsmyth]

Some knucklehead vendor from my workplace asked me while I was shopping (off for the day), "Do you fear Bortles?"

"Why?"

MIC DROP.

 

[PP2]

Great example of how important communication, both verbal and nonverbal.

Defenses will use pattern matching, zone/man mix among many other things to combat today's offenses.

Communication is key when switching and staying ahead.

This is why I never liked Roberts in MAC. It's just asking for more than he is capable of giving. He's just not a cerebral player.

 

[PP2]

No they don’t. Maybe I’m not being clear.
They are better based upon firm and distance (and possibly affected by opponent). In other words if it’s 3rs and 8 they won’t defend 3 wr better than 2 wr and 2 TE. If you throw on running downs or throw from a running formation on neutral downs to will have more success than throwing in throwing downs and MAY POSSIBLY have more success than throwing out of a passing formation on neutral downs but these stats don’t guvechay comparison/answer

The article also isn’t defining “success rate” which could skew the d/d factor even further nor do I see (but I didn’t read it fully) and breakdown of d/d or sample size especially compared to other defenses. It also isn’t clear to me if they are saying success rate in all plays it only pass plays but again it could be in there and I missed it.

This seems like a big misuse of stats to me.
I can see that Jacksonville is a good defense in obvious passing situations. I can’t see how much that is the basis of these numbers, and whether it’s all down and distance related and personnel grouping is coincidental.

Not when the difference in YPA is that significant. That's a very glaring difference- practically a first down when you have 12 personnel on the field or heavier.

It also makes sense on paper- why would you deploy a 3 WR set against two elite corners? You have just nullified 2 WR's, so now you only have 1 WR, 1 RB and 1 TE to work with, and the TE can easily be bracketed when Jags are in nickel or dime.

So now, your only weapon is a RB who faces a fully available LB lineup, and the lone remaining WR who is third on your checkdown.

 

[Ivan]

I’d go no huddle right out of the gate, try to get Brady in rhythm as quickly as possible, get mismatches, and tire out their defensive front.

On defense it’s obvious, clamp down on Fournette and make Bortles beat them.

If Brady is OK then the Patriots should win convincingly, if not it will be closer than we would like. Brady has been picking this franchise up for 17 years, they need to return that today.

 

[stcjones]

Holy crap!! What a great breakdown! Great work! GO PATS!

I'd like to use this thread to breakdown each team. Their tendencies, system, individually. Let's keep this strictly football, x's/o's, stats etc please.

First off, much respect to Jacksonville! They deserve to be here without a doubt. Their comprised of ultra talented, young players seemingly at every position except QB. At times Bortles has been downright putrid. We've all seen it. But if we're being honest we've all seen him make enough plays to ultimately help his team play us next week.


Patriots Offense / Jaguars Defense

Jacksonville plays a Cover 3/4-3 Under, with Saint Doug & Washington adding their own variations. Think Atlanta, Miami & Seattle. They put an emphasis on being fast, aggressive & disruptive. For better or worse they live & die that way.

Their pass rush is fierce and well rounded. 55 sacks. They blitz less than 20% of the time (19.5) , can generate a rush on the edge or inside & have 13 players with at least one sack. They can win with power or finesse.

C. C. is a size/speed freak that literally does it all. Gap disciplined, will blow up plays in the backfield. Whethers it's his Bob & Swat inside or Bullrush/Rip outside. Campbell is a nightmare and effects the game in a number of ways. He's priority #1 on D and maybe the game. Top 10-20 overall player this year


Jackson is another IDL that can push the pocket and provide a pass rush inside. Very solid player that gets lost when teams game plan to stop Jax.

Dareus has really helped improve their run defense. 34.9% success rate & 3.69 per since he's been.

Ngakou plays the LEO spot and has has a great year. Hand in the dirt or standing. Has great burst, good bend and will use chops/swats to soften the edge en route to the QB. He has 12+ sacks and 6+ FF including the playoffs. If he gets to the QB, he usually gets the ball too.

Lottery pick Dante Fowler has finally got healthy and starting to produce. Another edge guy to worry about.

Jacksonville also has a pair of freaks at LB's to along with vet Paul Pos. They are so versatile & athletic.

Smith was a binky of mine years ago. 6'3/215 hybrid that could do it all. Sideline 2 sideline speed, c.o.d., A/A. Smith is a versatile P.-T.P. through and through.

Jack is another guy with ridiculous closing speed & versatility. This guy could have been a RB or SS if he wanted.

Paul Pos is someone Brady will look to exploit in coverage as he's mainly in for run defense. He can't cover any of our guys. Huge mis-match.

In the Secondary Jax has 2 all-pro corners capable of making any QB think twice. Combined J.R & A.J. have combined for 30+ PD & 10+ INT'S. Overall as a team they've touched 85+ passes.

This defense is nasty, versatile and fast. They might not be "all time" great but they deserve our full attention.

Here are some ways we'll attack on Offense

1) Attack horizontally with misdirection & Pre Snap Motion. This will help open up small creases in gaps, move guys on the DL, create mismatch across the l.o.s. for our pass catchers & manipulate LB's in the box

(remember Jax will likely have a specific D and want certain guys, in cerrain spots. Tom can take advantage of that using some of the above mentioned)

Also by attacking east/west, so to speak, that keeps that backside end thinking and possibly hesitating. Same goes for any backers peeking trying to make a play.

2A) Dink & Dunk. Mariota had success spreading the ball around the short-intermediate parts of the field (l.o.s. - 25 yards) Jax keeps their LB's about 6 yards from the l.o.s. Most teams are about 4.5-5 yards. Also Jags CB'S have been known to bite on double moves and fakes in route. I'm sure our staff has noticed this & many other subtle insights.

2B) Mariota, Goff & Gabbet all had success targeting specific areas of the field. Mariota underneath. Gabbert underneath and left. Goff right.


Expect to see ...

Smash Seam Empty (play below), Hoss Y Juke, Hoss X Juke to stretch the field & work underneath.

Trips right - Cooks outside on a comback, Hogan Seam, Danny Slot. Left you have Gronk Seam and Lewis in comeback. Danny should have a nice match up underneath.
Also expect some variations from the same alignment with Cooks/Dorsett on a double move.

Jet Sweeps/Fake Sweeps. Hopefully w/ Cooks. Maybe some type of trick play off this?

Slant/Flat-Vert

White, Lewis, Rex strong side wide right on a slant. Amendola/Hogan breaking outside (flat) & Gronk on the shallow cross. Cooks & Dorsett wide left on Go & Flat.

Here are some clips of our O & Jax D ...












Here you see the finesse of Ngakoue and power of CC. Ngakoue gets a great jump, stride length is decent. Gets his man out of position and comes back inside. Notice how clean he is. Opposite side you the power of CC with what looks a stab before breaking back as well. These guys are very disruptive if nothing else. Better look at Y.N.'s FF below.





GO PATS!!!!!

 

[Ring 6]

Not when the difference in YPA is that significant. That's a very glaring difference- practically a first down when you have 12 personnel on the field or heavier.

I’m not sure what you mean by a first down but until it considers down and distance as well as opponent it’s not real meaningful as it is being applied.

It also makes sense on paper- why would you deploy a 3 WR set against two elite corners? You have just nullified 2 WR's, so now you only have 1 WR, 1 RB and 1 TE to work with, and the TE can easily be bracketed when Jags are in nickel or dime.

As opposed to have 1 rb and 2 TE?

So now, your only weapon is a RB who faces a fully available LB lineup, and the lone remaining WR who is third on your checkdown.

Explain to me how Dwayne Allen on the field allows you a better chance to throw than Danny Amendola.
The third wr makes Gronk more difficult to deal with as
well.
You are acting as if their corners eliminate the WRs which isn’t true but that if they did you would rather have a 3 man passing game of Lewis Gronk and allen instead of Lewis Gronk and amendola. I’ll take the matchup of Dola on their nickel instead of allen on anyone every day.

What would you rather run against?
A d with pozluzny and Dareus on the field and Campbell at de.
Or a d with a corner in pozluzny place, Campbell inside and Fowler who can’t play the run outside. They are a tiny team in nickel.

 

[Ring 6]

Another factor in going 3 wide and throwing in early downs.

Wondering what to look for today?
Starting after the 2013 season, the one with the worst set of weapons brady has had, he has played in 9 playoffs games, winning 8

He has thrown over 50 times in 5
49-40. In 2
35 and 38 in the other 2.

His AVERAGE game in those 9
31 completions
47 attempts
345 yards
2.6 TD
1 int

We will throw the ball.

Gronk played in 6 of them

37/512/7


Janes white and Shane vereen in those 9
47/394/3

 

[Pats1989]

I believe the Patriots will win. I want them to win because: A) I'm a fan. B) I really don't want to watch a Bortles vs Keenum or Foles SB.

That said, this is a weaker Patriots team than the last two SB squads. Jags winning wouldn't stun me one bit.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Holy crap!! What a great breakdown! Great work! GO PATS!

Thanks man appreciate it!

Very interesting seeing some of it in the game plan.

Thanks again.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Great thread guys. I'll have one for Phila soon.

 

[Ring 6]

This was an intersting discussion. As it turned out the Patriots didn’t buy those stats either and played primarily 11 personell.

Of 64 snaps
Cooks 64
Hogan. 58
Amendola 48
Dorsett. 3

So that’s 45/64 snaps with 3 wr.

Allen played 39 and Gronk 26.
So that looks like 1 snap with 2 TE.
Develin played 15

Lewis and white split the rb duties almost evenly 33/31 white/Lewis with Burkhand only playing 3 snaps.

So it looks like
45/64 with 11
15/64 with the fb
1/64 with 2 TE
3/64. With 2 rb

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

This was an intersting discussion. As it turned out the Patriots didn’t buy those stats either and played primarily 11 personell.

Of 64 snaps
Cooks 64
Hogan. 58
Amendola 48
Dorsett. 3

So that’s 45/64 snaps with 3 wr.

Allen played 39 and Gronk 26.
So that looks like 1 snap with 2 TE.
Develin played 15

Lewis and white split the rb duties almost evenly 33/31 white/Lewis with Burkhand only playing 3 snaps.

So it looks like
45/64 with 11
15/64 with the fb
1/64 with 2 TE
3/64. With 2 rb

Yup. We had a game plan and held strong. Defensively we doubled down on the run in the 2nd half but it didn't look like they tried to "play on stats" that much.

 

[Deus Irae]

This was an intersting discussion. As it turned out the Patriots didn’t buy those stats either and played primarily 11 personell.

Of 64 snaps
Cooks 64
Hogan. 58
Amendola 48
Dorsett. 3

So that’s 45/64 snaps with 3 wr.

Allen played 39 and Gronk 26.
So that looks like 1 snap with 2 TE.
Develin played 15

Lewis and white split the rb duties almost evenly 33/31 white/Lewis with Burkhand only playing 3 snaps.

So it looks like
45/64 with 11
15/64 with the fb
1/64 with 2 TE
3/64. With 2 rb

And, whether you want to blame the offense, or the defense, the players, or the game plans, that game was closer than it should have been.

Personally, I thought the game plans on both sides of the ball were substandard for this team. But they eeked out the win and now have two weeks to prepare for the Eagles.

 

[Ring 6]

And, whether you want to blame the offense, or the defense, the players, or the game plans, that game was closer than it should have been.

Personally, I thought the game plans on both sides of the ball were substandard for this team. But they eeked out the win and now have two weeks to prepare for the Eagles.

I tend to think defense is what made it closer than it should have been between allowing more points than they should have to that offense and not getting off the field especially in the first half.
I’d also say allowing 20 to that team is a bigger underperformance than scoring 24 given the quality of their offense and defense. Not to mention losing your top weapon for about 60% of the game.
I’d also say that a game plan that results in winning a conference championship is fine by me regardless of how close the game was.

 

[Ring 6]

Yup. We had a game plan and held strong. Defensively we doubled down on the run in the 2nd half but it didn't look like they tried to "play on stats" that much.

I didn’t like the defensive game plan at all, but I recognize the defensive game plan was a 60 minute game plan and bortles was 5/13 in the 4th quarter.

 

[Deus Irae]

I’d also say that a game plan that results in winning a conference championship is fine by me regardless of how close the game was.

When you keep having to do something special to beat teams, regardless of the reason you're in that position, you eventually fail. We saw it cost the team perfection in '07.

'06
'07
'11
'15


I have no desire to see that list expanded because of dubious game plans.

 

[Ring 6]

When you keep having to do something special to beat teams, regardless of the reason you're in that position, you eventually fail. We saw it cost the team perfection in '07.

'06
'07
'11
'15


I have no desire to see that list expanded because of dubious game plans.

I have no idea what this means. What have they had to keep doing that is special to beat teams, how does that relate to 4 other seasons?

 

[PP2]

I’m not sure what you mean by a first down but until it considers down and distance as well as opponent it’s not real meaningful as it is being applied.


As opposed to have 1 rb and 2 TE?


Explain to me how Dwayne Allen on the field allows you a better chance to throw than Danny Amendola.
The third wr makes Gronk more difficult to deal with as
well.
You are acting as if their corners eliminate the WRs which isn’t true but that if they did you would rather have a 3 man passing game of Lewis Gronk and allen instead of Lewis Gronk and amendola. I’ll take the matchup of Dola on their nickel instead of allen on anyone every day.

What would you rather run against?
A d with pozluzny and Dareus on the field and Campbell at de.
Or a d with a corner in pozluzny place, Campbell inside and Fowler who can’t play the run outside. They are a tiny team in nickel.

We are talking about 11 personnel, not any other personnel.

Here is the proof: