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Pats/Jags Game Plan, Breakdown ...


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BaconGrundleCandy

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I'd like to use this thread to breakdown each team. Their tendencies, system, individually. Let's keep this strictly football, x's/o's, stats etc please.

First off, much respect to Jacksonville! They deserve to be here without a doubt. Their comprised of ultra talented, young players seemingly at every position except QB. At times Bortles has been downright putrid. We've all seen it. But if we're being honest we've all seen him make enough plays to ultimately help his team play us next week.


Patriots Offense / Jaguars Defense

Jacksonville plays a Cover 3/4-3 Under, with Saint Doug & Washington adding their own variations. Think Atlanta, Miami & Seattle. They put an emphasis on being fast, aggressive & disruptive. For better or worse they live & die that way.

Their pass rush is fierce and well rounded. 55 sacks. They blitz less than 20% of the time (19.5) , can generate a rush on the edge or inside & have 13 players with at least one sack. They can win with power or finesse.

C. C. is a size/speed freak that literally does it all. Gap disciplined, will blow up plays in the backfield. Whethers it's his Bob & Swat inside or Bullrush/Rip outside. Campbell is a nightmare and effects the game in a number of ways. He's priority #1 on D and maybe the game. Top 10-20 overall player this year


Jackson is another IDL that can push the pocket and provide a pass rush inside. Very solid player that gets lost when teams game plan to stop Jax.

Dareus has really helped improve their run defense. 34.9% success rate & 3.69 per since he's been.

Ngakou plays the LEO spot and has has a great year. Hand in the dirt or standing. Has great burst, good bend and will use chops/swats to soften the edge en route to the QB. He has 12+ sacks and 6+ FF including the playoffs. If he gets to the QB, he usually gets the ball too.

Lottery pick Dante Fowler has finally got healthy and starting to produce. Another edge guy to worry about.

Jacksonville also has a pair of freaks at LB's to along with vet Paul Pos. They are so versatile & athletic.

Smith was a binky of mine years ago. 6'3/215 hybrid that could do it all. Sideline 2 sideline speed, c.o.d., A/A. Smith is a versatile P.-T.P. through and through.

Jack is another guy with ridiculous closing speed & versatility. This guy could have been a RB or SS if he wanted.

Paul Pos is someone Brady will look to exploit in coverage as he's mainly in for run defense. He can't cover any of our guys. Huge mis-match.

In the Secondary Jax has 2 all-pro corners capable of making any QB think twice. Combined J.R & A.J. have combined for 30+ PD & 10+ INT'S. Overall as a team they've touched 85+ passes.

This defense is nasty, versatile and fast. They might not be "all time" great but they deserve our full attention.

Here are some ways we'll attack on Offense

1) Attack horizontally with misdirection & Pre Snap Motion. This will help open up small creases in gaps, move guys on the DL, create mismatch across the l.o.s. for our pass catchers & manipulate LB's in the box

(remember Jax will likely have a specific D and want certain guys, in cerrain spots. Tom can take advantage of that using some of the above mentioned)

Also by attacking east/west, so to speak, that keeps that backside end thinking and possibly hesitating. Same goes for any backers peeking trying to make a play.

2A) Dink & Dunk. Mariota had success spreading the ball around the short-intermediate parts of the field (l.o.s. - 25 yards) Jax keeps their LB's about 6 yards from the l.o.s. Most teams are about 4.5-5 yards. Also Jags CB'S have been known to bite on double moves and fakes in route. I'm sure our staff has noticed this & many other subtle insights.

2B) Mariota, Goff & Gabbet all had success targeting specific areas of the field. Mariota underneath. Gabbert underneath and left. Goff right.


Expect to see ...

Smash Seam Empty (play below), Hoss Y Juke, Hoss X Juke to stretch the field & work underneath.

Trips right - Cooks outside on a comback, Hogan Seam, Danny Slot. Left you have Gronk Seam and Lewis in comeback. Danny should have a nice match up underneath.
Also expect some variations from the same alignment with Cooks/Dorsett on a double move.

Jet Sweeps/Fake Sweeps. Hopefully w/ Cooks. Maybe some type of trick play off this?

Slant/Flat-Vert

White, Lewis, Rex strong side wide right on a slant. Amendola/Hogan breaking outside (flat) & Gronk on the shallow cross. Cooks & Dorsett wide left on Go & Flat.

Here are some clips of our O & Jax D ...












Here you see the finesse of Ngakoue and power of CC. Ngakoue gets a great jump, stride length is decent. Gets his man out of position and comes back inside. Notice how clean he is. Opposite side you the power of CC with what looks a stab before breaking back as well. These guys are very disruptive if nothing else. Better look at Y.N.'s FF below.





GO PATS!!!!!
 
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In 4 Loses Jax was losing or tied at halftime

*Patriot-Type Football*
(Win the the last 2 Min's - Win the Half - Win the Game)

Jax is also 1-8 when it's 32 or below
 
Patriot Defense / Jax Offense

Jax plays a variation of Air Coryell with a Heavy Run Game (Gap/Zone & Man).

Everything starts with the run game. Think TE's, RB's, FB's marching the ball down the field with some big shots to WR'S down the field.
This offense wants to punch first with 27, running the ball and take shots down the field for big gains with Cole, Lee etc. They'll sprinkle in some short/intermediate stuff like checkdowns & look to hit Lewis in the m.o.f. They arent afraid to hit their FB'S either who have about 15 rec's this year.


Blake Bortles wants to make about 15-20 safe, calculated, designed passes a game to balance the run first attack. He's not a nuanced QB that will move S & LB's with his eyes or put great touch on a ball. He can be a game manager though and hit the deep ball. He's also very mobile and usually ends up with 20-30 yards rushing when the game is done.

You want to keep Blake in the pocket, going through reads, which he struggles with & take away his security blankets.

Jax wins with a formula. Run, run, big play. When they win, Blake is successful hitting his guys deep.

Here's his "Long" for Wins. 20, 35, 31, 52, 37, 36, 28, 32, 75, 73, 20 & 45.

"Loses" 29, 28, 22, 24, 32, 23. Only one game with a pass longer than 30.

Blake lives off the big play and play action. I'm sure our defensive players & staff have watched every one of Bortles passes at least 3-4 times. Every one.

When he throws 30+ Jax is 5-4. His comp% goes from low 60's to 40% after 30+ passes



Leonard Fournette is a guy I've watched since high school. Built like a brick **** house with great long speed & acceleration. Can get skinny and has a little cut back but is mostly a north/south runner. Stop his feet and the play is usually dead 99.9% of the time. Get him going east/west, backwards and the play is dead. He doesn't have any suddeness or much burst.
He's dealt with this ankle injury for years so he'll be ready. They'll do w/e they have to in order for him to play. He def isn't the same player when dealing with lower leg injuries though. He slows down a bit. It's all about the ankle itself and how healthy it is. They lean on him though. Can also catch passes and is decent in pass pro.

T.J. Yeldon is a the guy they'll look to for swing passes, curls, flat etc. Has always run high but does a decent job of looking for a crease and following his block. Does a good job of sneaking away so we have to watch out for him.

Mercedes Lewis, particularly inline right is a tell he might be getting targeted on a curl in m.o.f., seam etc. Give him space and don't try to win a physical battle. 6'6/250+ Give him some room and make a play on the ball. Likely already know the play is coming.

Bohanon & Koyack are the sneaky FBs that you have to acount for as well.


Jax hasn't had a WR go for over 83 yards in all their L's. Another sign they live off the big play.
You want to keep Hurns Lee, Cole etc in front of you. Again these are the game changers for Jax. Limiting the big play is huge here. No Flags!!!

1)Stop the Run. If Jacksonville lives & dies off the run game then stopping that & making that priority #1 makes sense. They can't come from behind and completely change when they can't run.

2)Play Action & Big Play.
Jax absolutely needs these to work on order for them to get the W. Again it's a formula for them.

3) Bortles loves extending plays. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a spy on a few plays. You don't think about him as a "Running QB" but he'll eat up yards if given the space & chance.

4) Pressure on obvious passing downs. Bortles can't handle it or identify the right read. We all know this defense comes together as the season goes on so expect a "full performance" on that side of the ball.

5) Attack the OLine. Jax doesn't have the best pass pro from their line. I expect Flowers, Butler and Wise to be unleashed on these obvious passing downs.
 
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In 4 Loses Jax was losing or tied at halftime

*Patriot-Type Football*
(Win the the last 2 Min's - Win the Half - Win the Game)

Jax is also 1-8 when it's 32 or below

Appreciate the analysis above - good stuff!

On the weather, early indications are partly sunny, low 40s. Wind 10-20 mph.
Weather
 
great job BGC . just wanted to start a pre-watch thread.
so glad you jumped in so I can go for a sunny walk now.

here a solid short video analysis from Jeremiah and Bucky:
 
Appreciate the analysis above - good stuff!

On the weather, early indications are partly sunny, low 40s. Wind 10-20 mph.
Weather

Thanks man. I just wanted a thread to compile all this stuff.
 
Will have to wear them down. Jaguars had their bye at the end of October, played even in Week 17 with almost all of their starters. They are not fresh by any stretch, especially not after that battle with the Steelers.
 
Great thread by the way. I was interested to see everyone's breakdown of the game and hope more people contribute. I'm not as savvy with the X's and O's but enjoy them and trying to learn more. That being said, to keep it simple, whatever the 49ers and Steelers offense did, we should be able to do. I think our offense is just as good, if not better, than those teams. Also, I always feel like moving the RBs around and having them go through the route tree is beneficial and creates some confusion too. Make the Jags have to cover everybody. I would even like to see Develin involved whether running the ball or catching a couple passes. Finally, there has to be some way we can use Dorsett's speed to our advantage against these guys. Maybe even as a decoy?
 
Great thread by the way. I was interested to see everyone's breakdown of the game and hope more people contribute. I'm not as savvy with the X's and O's but enjoy them and trying to learn more. That being said, to keep it simple, whatever the 49ers and Steelers offense did, we should be able to do. I think our offense is just as good, if not better, than those teams. Also, I always feel like moving the RBs around and having them go through the route tree is beneficial and creates some confusion too. Make the Jags have to cover everybody. I would even like to see Develin involved whether running the ball or catching a couple passes. Finally, there has to be some way we can use Dorsett's speed to our advantage against these guys. Maybe even as a decoy?

I really wanted a thread to talk game plans etc I'm def not savy either and have a ton to learn like just like you. Doesn't have to be "coach speak" anyone can contribute and I hope they do. Including you.

I def think we see a rec or two from Dev this week
 
Brady says: best team we've faced all season

...i have no idea why that's not in the lexicon of other teams EVERY. SINGLE. WEEK. particularly when the playoffs roll around
 
Great thread by the way. I was interested to see everyone's breakdown of the game and hope more people contribute. I'm not as savvy with the X's and O's but enjoy them and trying to learn more. That being said, to keep it simple, whatever the 49ers and Steelers offense did, we should be able to do. I think our offense is just as good, if not better, than those teams. Also, I always feel like moving the RBs around and having them go through the route tree is beneficial and creates some confusion too. Make the Jags have to cover everybody. I would even like to see Develin involved whether running the ball or catching a couple passes. Finally, there has to be some way we can use Dorsett's speed to our advantage against these guys. Maybe even as a decoy?

Btw you're 100% right in terms of copying the 49ers. They absolutely laid the blueprint imo with stretch zone running plays and gashing them back up the middle. And That was prob about 1/3 of their playbook bc of the QB situation and Jimmy just getting there.

Bill and Kyle are friendly and talk. I absolutely know their will be a lot of communication between 49ers/Pats this week about Jax.
 
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