Pats draft QB Jimmy Garropolo from Eastern Illinois in the 2nd round

[Brady6]

I would just offer to go out with the teacher and she would pass me.

I figured you would tell the teacher, “If you dropped 10-15lbs and gave me a passing grade I would totally do you”.

 

[Brady6]

Why is the draft inherently superior to other methods? If a particular trade or free agent signing makes a ton of sense how is it less valid or likely to succeed than drafting a player?

Also, I don't think fans necessarily want Moss, though it'd be tough to turn down an 07 Moss for the price we paid, they want someone who can reliably get separation, especially from press coverage, and effectively work the outside and deep zones.

Financially it is a lot more efficient, a rookie contract is significantly cheaper than a second contract.

I would take a Moss in a heartbeat but we do not have one right now, we do have a superstar in Gronkowski who is capable of giving us that same type of threat however.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Financially it is a lot more efficient, a rookie contract is significantly cheaper than a second contract.

I would take a Moss in a heartbeat but we do not have one right now, we do have a superstar in Gronkowski who is capable of giving us that same type of threat however.

Is it more efficient? The cost is likely lower but is the production the same? It usually takes receivers a few years for the pro game to click so you're paying less but also getting less.

 

[mgteich]

Players on their rookie contracts are the the base upon which teams build. These players are economic bargains compared to veterans.

There is no other method to build a team that will succeed long-term. Only WAS succeeded while ignoring the draft, and that was long ago.

Yes, there is a place for UDFAs, other free agents and trades. However, the primary way of building a successful team is through the draft.

Why is the draft inherently superior to other methods? If a particular trade or free agent signing makes a ton of sense how is it less valid or likely to succeed than drafting a player?

Also, I don't think fans necessarily want Moss, though it'd be tough to turn down an 07 Moss for the price we paid, they want someone who can reliably get separation, especially from press coverage, and effectively work the outside and deep zones.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I disagree completely. Jarvis Landry, WR from LSU might've received some major time on the field depending on Dobson's and Boyce's health. Then in the 3rd round, C.J. Fiedorowicz automatically becomes our best TE not named Gronk. Richard Rodgers and Crocket Gilmore were 2 more TEs that automatically become our 2nd best TE on the team, but totally ignored in the 3rd round by trading that pick. In fact taking CJ in the 2nd and Gilmore in the 3rd, our TE position goes from a weakness to a strength, and if Gronk misses some time or gets hurt again, those guys sure as help help us win NOW !! I can name a lot of people we passed up by picking JG and by NOT using their 3rd round pick that would have helped this team win NOW. Not even mentioning that 3rd round pick could have been used as a tool to trade UP to pick a stud prospect higher in the 2nd round to help the team win NOW.

My scouting opinion was that the TE class was bereft of any quality aside from Ebron who was long gone.

I didn't think any were appreciably better than Hoomanawanuji and definitely placed Fedorowitz in that category. My predraft opinion seesm ot be confirmed by the Pats scouts. What good would it have done to draft a Hooman clone?

 

[Brady6]

Is it more efficient? The cost is likely lower but is the production the same? It usually takes receivers a few years for the pro game to click so you're paying less but also getting less.

Look at Amendola the team cut him a check for $8M in 2013, the year before the Rams paid him $1.9M for basically the same production. Look at Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, or Greg Jennings all the same result significantly overpaid for their production.

 

[Brady6]

My scouting opinion was that the TE class was bereft of any quality aside from Ebron who was long gone.

I didn't think any were appreciably better than Hoomanawanuji and definitely placed Fedorowitz in that category. My predraft opinion seesm ot be confirmed by the Pats scouts. What good would it have done to draft a Hooman clone?

I think they would have taken either ASJ or Amaro had they been there at #62, the problem was that they felt #29 was to early for them, and they felt #62 was to early for CJF.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Why is the draft inherently superior to other methods? If a particular trade or free agent signing makes a ton of sense how is it less valid or likely to succeed than drafting a player?

Also, I don't think fans necessarily want Moss, though it'd be tough to turn down an 07 Moss for the price we paid, they want someone who can reliably get separation, especially from press coverage, and effectively work the outside and deep zones.

The draft is inherently superior not just because of the talent, but also because of the value it can generate. If there was no salary cap and we could spend hundreds of millions of dollars more than everyone else, I could build the best team in NFL history.

But there is a cap, which makes value matter. As an example, Calvin Johnson is a better receiver than Demaryius Thomas. But I'd rather have Thomas for 5 years, $12.2M than Johnson at 5 years, $150.5M. Johnson is better, but not 12 times better. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the game but 7 years, $96M is a lot of money to pay a running back with injuries. LeSean McCoy led the league in rushing last season and is under contract for 5 years, $45M. Better value. Alfred Morris finished 4th in rushing last season and is under contract for 4 years, $2.2M. Much better value. AP is the superior player, but not twice as good as McCoy, or 45 times better than Morris.

Obviously rookies are not predictable, proven commodities. But you get 7 picks every year for free. The cost will vary depending on the pick locations, and you won't hit on all of them, but the potential value is incredible. As an example, the Patriots went into the draft with 9 picks and a projected 1st year pool cost of under $5.3M. If only 2 of those picks work out, that would still average out to less than Kyle Orton made last season to play 1 game.

I don't disagree that trades or free agent signings can provide similar value. It's just much rarer and more difficult to find, and often much riskier. Moss is actually a great example of both the good and bad with trades. When the Vikings acquired him, they gave up Napolean Harris, their 1st round pick (7th overall), and a 7th round pick. Of course the Vikings blew the pick on Troy Williamson (who?), but it was still a lot for the Raiders to give up for not a whole lot. They were also paying Moss a lot of money as part of his 8-year, $75M contract, a particularly big hit when the team salary cap was $85.5M in 2005.

After 2006, lots of people including his coach were saying he was done, so we were able to acquire him for a 4th-round pick AND he reduced his salary from $9.25M to $3M. At that rate, the value was incredible and comparable to a rookie contract.

Acquiring a big-ticket free agent or making a blockbuster trade are like buying stocks at their peak, or paying sticker price for a new car. You're buying them at their best and hoping they continue to stay at that level. There's not a whole lot of value there, and you usually only do it because you need to.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Look at Amendola the team cut him a check for $8M in 2013, the year before the Rams paid him $1.9M for basically the same production. Look at Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, or Greg Jennings all the same result significantly overpaid for their production.

Yes, those guys were probably were overpaid but are there examples of guys that were paid fair and even teams getting a good deal on a player?

Each transaction is it's own, we got Moss for a steal, no 4th rounder would have equaled his production, does that makes trades superior? Of course not, it was just the superior move in that situation.

 

[Snake Eyes]

The draft is inherently superior not just because of the talent, but also because of the value it can generate. If there was no salary cap and we could spend hundreds of millions of dollars more than everyone else, I could build the best team in NFL history.

But there is a cap, which makes value matter. As an example, Calvin Johnson is a better receiver than Demaryius Thomas. But I'd rather have Thomas for 5 years, $12.2M than Johnson at 5 years, $150.5M. Johnson is better, but not 12 times better. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the game but 7 years, $96M is a lot of money to pay a running back with injuries. LeSean McCoy led the league in rushing last season and is under contract for 5 years, $45M. Better value. Alfred Morris finished 4th in rushing last season and is under contract for 4 years, $2.2M. Much better value. AP is the superior player, but not twice as good as McCoy, or 45 times better than Morris.

Obviously rookies are not predictable, proven commodities. But you get 7 picks every year for free. The cost will vary depending on the pick locations, and you won't hit on all of them, but the potential value is incredible. As an example, the Patriots went into the draft with 9 picks and a projected 1st year pool cost of under $5.3M. If only 2 of those picks work out, that would still average out to less than Kyle Orton made last season to play 1 game.

I don't disagree that trades or free agent signings can provide similar value. It's just much rarer and more difficult to find, and often much riskier. Moss is actually a great example of both the good and bad with trades. When the Vikings acquired him, they gave up Napolean Harris, their 1st round pick (7th overall), and a 7th round pick. Of course the Vikings blew the pick on Troy Williamson (who?), but it was still a lot for the Raiders to give up for not a whole lot. They were also paying Moss a lot of money as part of his 8-year, $75M contract, a particularly big hit when the team salary cap was $85.5M in 2005.

After 2006, lots of people including his coach were saying he was done, so we were able to acquire him for a 4th-round pick AND he reduced his salary from $9.25M to $3M. At that rate, the value was incredible and comparable to a rookie contract.

Acquiring a big-ticket free agent or making a blockbuster trade are like buying stocks at their peak, or paying sticker price for a new car. You're buying them at their best and hoping they continue to stay at that level. There's not a whole lot of value there, and you usually only do it because you need to.

You're also citing examples of some of the highest paid players who are also some of the best at their position, which is biased in 2 parts, I can easily cite examples of rookies that were overpaid and also busts, TONS of draft picks don't work out, the attrition rate in incredibly high.

 

[AzPatsFan]

You're also citing examples of some of the highest paid players who are also some of the best at their position, which is biased in 2 parts, I can easily cite examples of rookies that were overpaid and also busts, TONS of draft picks don't work out, the attrition rate in incredibly high.

So are vet FA signings. NFL stars Ocho Cinco and the very fast WR star whose name escapes me, were signed and could not produce in the Pats system.

 

[Brady6]

Yes, those guys were probably were overpaid but are there examples of guys that were paid fair and even teams getting a good deal on a player?

Each transaction is it's own, we got Moss for a steal, no 4th rounder would have equaled his production, does that makes trades superior? Of course not, it was just the superior move in that situation.

Moss was an anomaly. That type of opportunity does not often present itself.

 

[mgteich]

You're also citing examples of some of the highest paid players who are also some of the best at their position, which is biased in 2 parts, I can easily cite examples of rookies that were overpaid and also busts, TONS of draft picks don't work out, the attrition rate in incredibly high.

You're missing the point. The cost of ALL the draftees is about equal to the cost ONE free agent. It is difficult to excessively overpay rookies. That is the beauty of the new CBA.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Moss was an anomaly. That type of opportunity does not often present itself.

That is part of GM Bill Belichick's genius. That is to recognize value, and the will to act on it.

The Draftnik doofuses would rather make the observation that the 2007 draft produced nothing, ignoring the Moss and Welker steals; and therefore GM Belichick sucks.

 

[Ivan]

Obviously everything you choose to believe is true benefits your team or you in general. I would love to win a championship but if wr's are shut down again I don't give a ****. I'll just stop watching the games. Pick up a couple more hot girls maybe

I am pretty sure you have to watch games to actually stop watching them, and nothing you have posted to date suggests you have ever watched an actual game, which is understandable as you are obviously tied up looking at yourself in the mirror 24 hours a day, which again is understandable as you are clearly deeply in love with your own reflection.

When i read your posts I am reminded of the scene in Anchorman 1 where Christine Applegate enters Ron Burgundy's office as he curls 1,001, 1,0002, 1,003............. Like you he was just working the guns. Gotta keep working the guns to keep them happy.

Gotta go, 1,004, 1,005, 1,006...............

Happy Memorial Day Weekend, it's a great weekend to take time out to pause and reflect on just how awesome you are, 1,007, 1,008, 1,009.........

 

[Ivan]

That is part of GM Bill Belichick's genius. That is to recognize value, and the will to act on it.

The Draftnik doofuses would rather make the observation that the 2007 draft produced nothing, ignoring the Moss and Welker steals; and therefore GM Belichick sucks.

Agree completely, it also speaks to one of Belichick's greatest attributes as a GM, and that is his patience and foresight, as he will maintain some cap flexibility when we are all screaming for him to use it up, and will wait and wait and wait for opportunities to present themself and act on them, as he has done with guys like Dillon, Moss, and now Revis. There are obvious problems with the patriots acquiring a guy like Andre Johnson but that situation is exactly the kind of situation where he has found a way to obtain a guy they would have loved to have had in the fold for years but no opportunity to get it done, suddenly an opening appears and he capitalizes upon it and significantly upgrades them. And while i am not counting on that deal to get done i have to admit that after Revis anything is possible.No way in hell did i go into this offseason believing Revis would be a Patriot, not even when the talk about became significant.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

You're also citing examples of some of the highest paid players who are also some of the best at their position, which is biased in 2 parts, I can easily cite examples of rookies that were overpaid and also busts, TONS of draft picks don't work out, the attrition rate in incredibly high.

There are lots of rookie busts, but since the new rookie salary cap went into effect, they're rarely overpaid. Compare the #1 picks in 2009 (before rookie cap) and 2010:

2009: Matthew Stafford - 6 years, $72M ($41.7M guaranteed)
2010: Cam Newton - 4 years, $22M ($22M guaranteed) + 5th year option for $14.67M

Overly simplified, $12M/season with a huge guarantee for an unproven player is terrifying. $5.5M/year for the first overall pick with 4 years to prove themselves before you have to pay out a big chunk of change is much more reasonable. And that's at the top of the draft. Go further down and the potential savings are incredible.

If you miss on a rookie, the hit on your cap isn't that bad. If you miss on a big name free agent though, it leaves a dent. Miss on a 2nd rounder like Ras-I Dowling, it might cost you $2M in salary and accelerated signing bonus. Miss on a free agent corner like Nnamdi Asomugha the same year, it costs you $25M guaranteed. Yes, the draft pick might be a bust, but you could afford to take 12 of them for the potential cost of a top-tier free agent.

It's about understanding risk vs. reward, and the concept of value.

 

[Snake Eyes]

There are lots of rookie busts, but since the new rookie salary cap went into effect, they're rarely overpaid. Compare the #1 picks in 2009 (before rookie cap) and 2010:

2009: Matthew Stafford - 6 years, $72M ($41.7M guaranteed)
2010: Cam Newton - 4 years, $22M ($22M guaranteed) + 5th year option for $14.67M

Overly simplified, $12M/season with a huge guarantee for an unproven player is terrifying. $5.5M/year for the first overall pick with 4 years to prove themselves before you have to pay out a big chunk of change is much more reasonable. And that's at the top of the draft. Go further down and the potential savings are incredible.

If you miss on a rookie, the hit on your cap isn't that bad. If you miss on a big name free agent though, it leaves a dent. Miss on a 2nd rounder like Ras-I Dowling, it might cost you $2M in salary and accelerated signing bonus. Miss on a free agent corner like Nnamdi Asomugha the same year, it costs you $25M guaranteed. Yes, the draft pick might be a bust, but you could afford to take 12 of them for the potential cost of a top-tier free agent.

It's about understanding risk vs. reward, and the concept of value.

You're also using a major Free Agent bust for your standard, what if I traded the Ras-I pick for a solid but unspectacular vet, that would change the comparison quite a bit, yes?

 

[Snake Eyes]

That is part of GM Bill Belichick's genius. That is to recognize value, and the will to act on it.

The Draftnik doofuses would rather make the observation that the 2007 draft produced nothing, ignoring the Moss and Welker steals; and therefore GM Belichick sucks.

No, that draft would be a data point in favor of trades as opposed to the draft, that year it made more sense to make the trade, which made it the superior mode of player acquisition in that situation.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Moss was an anomaly. That type of opportunity does not often present itself.

It very much was an anomaly, it was ridiculous value, and BB was wise to jump on it.