Pat Kirwin on the Pats

[hwc]

Kirwin just did a lengthy segment on the Patriots on Sirius NFL radio. Good insights:

1) He thinks homefield advantage is everything in AFC playoffs. Impossible go into Denver or Foxboro and win in January. The Pats have basically sewed up the #1 seed, so the AFC playoffs go through Foxboro. Denver will be the 2 seed. Colts, the 3 seed. They will beat each other up and one of them will go to Foxboro for the AFC Championship game and lose. Pats to the SuperBowl.

2) On Jonas Gray. In training camp, Pats "coaches" told Kirwin they thought James White was the real deal. Gray beat him out. Kirwin compares him to Alfred Morris. Big, low, strong. Always hits the hole square, going forward. Runs where he is told. Sounds like the perfect Pats running back to me!

3) Defenses have to play Brady with two high safeties and lose coverage in the middle of the field. They have no choice with Brady and Gronkowski. As long as they do that, the Pats will pound Gray up the middle as most defenses simply can't stop it without help from the safeties/LBs.

4) Detroit won't have that problem. Their inside triangle with the MLB and tackles (including Suh) are good enough to limit (not completely stop) the running game without help. So, Gray won't have a big day. BUT, relying on Suh and the tackles to key on the run without help means that they can't pin their ears back and tee off on the pass rush. They have to bite on the play action because they won't have help. The game film of Gray from last night makes Brady's play action lethal down the road.

5) Once the Pats saw the run working, they just kept calling the same plays over and over.

 

[shmessy]

The Pats have basically sewed up the #1 seed, so the AFC playoffs go through Foxboro. Denver will be the 2 seed. Colts, the 3 seed. They will beat each other up and one of them will go to Foxboro for the AFC Championship game and lose. Pats to the SuperBowl.

Much as I love that thought, there are 6 games to play and that is ridiculously early to state that with any certitude.

Kirwin cannot be THAT stupid.

 

[Big-T]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-england-patriots/0ap3000000429984/Patriots-firing-on-all-cylinders

Some pretty good camera angles & breakdowns of running plays by Baldinger on this video too.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Much as I love that thought, there are 6 games to play and that is ridiculously early to state that with any certitude.

Kirwin cannot be THAT stupid.

You are correct- it is premature. But yesterday, the Broncos had an "easy win" while many thought the Patriots would lose. As it stands now, the Patriots now have a 1.5 game lead on the Broncos and a 2.5 game lead on the Colts. Just looking at the Broncos and Pats schedules, they both have:

vs Miami
vs Buffalo
at San Diego

The Pats play at home against the Lions and on the road against the Packers.

The Broncos play on the road against the Chiefs and Bengals.

The Pats are definitely in the driver's seat.

 

[patchick]

Much as I love that thought, there are 6 games to play and that is ridiculously early to state that with any certitude.

Kirwin cannot be THAT stupid.

Denver in particular is no sure thing to win its own division. Maybe Kirwin didn't make the predictions so baldly?

 

[Bella*chick]

Much as I love that thought, there are 6 games to play and that is ridiculously early to state that with any certitude.

Kirwin cannot be THAT stupid.

I know. Jeez, we're going to the Superbowl and I haven't even had my Thanksgiving turkey yet? Wow!

 

[hwc]

He admitted that it was still early to making the playoff seedings, but....

For the Pats to lose the #1 seed, they've got to drop 2 games out of the remaining 6 (at a time of year when the Pats are traditionally getting better) AND the Broncs have to win out. The Pats have the tie breaker over the Colts, the Bengals, and the Broncos - all three division leaders.

The biggest threat to the Pats is actually the Chiefs. If they were to win out and take the AFC West, they would have the tie breaker over the Pats.

 

[RobertWeathers]

With all the injuries, it is amazing how the 2013 Pats were even in the position to have TWO shots at home field was amazing.

It is bit early for Kirwan to make the call but I don't see them losing winnable games- like last year.

 

[hwc]

Although he didn't mention it today, part of Kirwin's thinking is that he already had the Pats as the #1 team in his AFC power rankings last week (before beating the Colts on the road). He had the Cardinals as #1 overall in the NFL.

The Pats have a 1.5 to 2.5 game lead on the other three AFC division leaders after beating all three of them, with 6 games left. It would be hard to not have them favored for the top seed.

 

[Fencer]

Nice idea on the play-action. But Tedy has a concern:

I can nitpick too, and what I'd like to see is more of a commitment from the OL to sell play-action. I felt like the two INTs that Brady threw (which were off play-action), pressure came from the interior gaps of the OL. What's said to the OL throughout practice, ever since training camp, is "sell it!" Parcells used to pound that into the OL. Belichick too. "Sell it!" You have to sell play-action for it to work. Those were two examples -- where if you block like it's a run play, you might not have had that interior penetration. You can't let up when it's play-action. That's my only nitpick in this chat!

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/boston/chat/_/id/51357

As for the prediction -- likely he was just forgetting the Chiefs. I know I was surprised when I checked this week and saw how strong their position was in the standings.

 

[Double TE]

If Sanders and JT are out for an extended period Denver will struggle. No running game and DT/Welker is not enough. Plus I think NE exposed Denver as a soft team. St. Louis beat them up a bit.

 

[hwc]

No. He wasn't forgetting the Chiefs. The problem is that the Chiefs have to get past the Broncos first. A wildcard team can't be the #1 seed. Denver has already beaten KC. They do meet again in KC.

 

[SVN]

You are correct- it is premature. But yesterday, the Broncos had an "easy win" while many thought the Patriots would lose. As it stands now, the Patriots now have a 1.5 game lead on the Broncos and a 2.5 game lead on the Colts. Just looking at the Broncos and Pats schedules, they both have:

vs Miami
vs Buffalo
at San Diego

The Pats play at home against the Lions and on the road against the Packers.

The Broncos play on the road against the Chiefs and Bengals.

The Pats are definitely in the driver's seat.

We have to play SD and MIA and NYJ on the road. We should win all those games but there is nothing given in this league. Way too premature.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

You are correct- it is premature. But yesterday, the Broncos had an "easy win" while many thought the Patriots would lose. As it stands now, the Patriots now have a 1.5 game lead on the Broncos and a 2.5 game lead on the Colts. Just looking at the Broncos and Pats schedules, they both have:

vs Miami
vs Buffalo
at San Diego

The Pats play at home against the Lions and on the road against the Packers.

The Broncos play on the road against the Chiefs and Bengals.

The Pats are definitely in the driver's seat.

I almost forgot that the Broncos host the Raiders for the last game of the season. That is always Peyton Manning's biggest stage when he sets a meaningless record and promptly takes himself out of the game immediately. I wonder if he'll have another choreographed game of keep away with the record setting football. I'm guessing this record will be for the most empty, garbage time TDs in a single season, right up there in the media's most hallowed achievements along with DiMaggio's hit streak. I'm looking forward to the desperate, last minute "Manning for MVP" media campaign come week 17 that cites thousands of obscure, advanced, and subjective statistics brought to you by the Manning Fanboys of America (also known as the national media.)

 

[Ring 6]

We have to play SD and MIA and NYJ on the road. We should win all those games but there is nothing given in this league. Way too premature.

we play Miami at home

 

[Joker]

Kirwan is trolling. Probably all pizzed off the Colts were favored. He hates the Patriots and wants as much external media blither/blather pressure as he and the rest of his scumbag fraternity can muster.

The Patriots are 8-2. That guarantees a .500 season. That is IT so far. Kirwan's thinly veiled attack piece is a gross attempt at ramping up as much hostility and external hatred as possible going into this critical 6 game stretch.

 

[hwc]

Kirwan is trolling. Probably all pizzed off the Colts were favored. He hates the Patriots and wants as much external media blither/blather pressure as he and the rest of his scumbag fraternity can muster.

Huh? I take it you don't listen to his daily Sirius radio show. He's consistently singing the praises of the Patriots. Was effusive in his praise during his training camp visit this year. And, when the Pats got blown out by the Chiefs, he said he had absolutely NO doubt Belichick and Brady would get it sorted out and be in contention.

He has ranked the Broncos higher than the Pats for most of this season, which seems perfectly reasonable to me before the Pats beat them. He did pick the Broncos to beat the Pats, going against his own rule of never picking against the Pats at home.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Much as I love that thought, there are 6 games to play and that is ridiculously early to state that with any certitude.

Kirwin cannot be THAT stupid.

I agree. If we tie KC in record, they get home field and it's basically impossible to win at arrowhead.

 

[Galeb]

Huh? I take it you don't listen to his daily Sirius radio show. He's consistently singing the praises of the Patriots.

I think it may be sarcasm, but I can't be sure. My limited intellect combined with Joker's dynamic nature makes it really hard to tell sometimes.

 

[50-yard-line]

Pats have a ONE-game lead on the Chiefs, who get two gimmes with the Raiders.

Long way to go. One game at a time.